OTP Group Investor Presentation

Transcription

1 OTP Group Investor Presentation OTP Group has maintained strong profitability, capital adequacy and liquidity Moscow, 17 March 2011 László Bencsik Chief Financial and Strategic Officer, OTP Bank Plc

2 OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million customers in 9 countries across the CEE Region Major Group Members in Europe OTP banka Hrvatska CKB Montenegro OTP Banka Slovensko OTP Bank JSC Ukraine OTP banka Srbija Serbia OTP Bank Russia OTP Bank Romania DSK Bank Bulgaria Total Assets Serbia Slovakia Montenegro Croatia Romania 4% 1% 4% 5% Russia 2% 7% Ukraine 7% 57% Hungary Bulgaria 12% Total Assets: EUR 35.0 billion* Gross Loans Car-financing Mortgage loans 5% Corporate loans 31% 40% 6% SME loans 18% Consumer loans Total Loans: EUR 26.7 billion* Number of Branches Headcount Serbia Serbia Montenegro Montenegro Slovakia Slovakia Other 55 Croatia 76 Hungary Croatia 2% 2% 33 Romania % 4% 4% 3% Romania % 32% Hungary Russia 155 Russia % Bulgaria Ukraine 17% Ukraine Bulgaria Total number of branches: 1,486 Total headcount: 25,009** Customer Deposits Retail sight deposit Corporate 19% 25% 8% SME deposit 49% Retail term deposit Total Deposits: EUR 20.8 billion* * Assuming EURHUF rate at (31 December 2010) ** Excluding selling agents employed at OTP Russia 2

3 OTP offers a unique investment opportunity for accessing the CEE banking sector through a well diversified and transparent player with highly liquid stock Ownership structure of OTP Bank, as on 31 December 2010 (0%) Treasury (-2%) (0%) Shares Other* Employees & Senior Officer Domestic Individual Domestic Institutional MOL (Hungarian Oil & Gas Company) 9% 8% (-1%) (0%) 2% 3% 7% 2% (-4%) 9% (0%) (+1%) 47% Rahimkulov Family 8% (0%) 6% (Q-o-Q change) Groupama Group (France) Lazard Asset Management Other Foreign Institutions Key features Total number of ordinary shares: 280,000,010, each having a nominal value of HUF 100 and representing the same rights Diversified ownership structure without strategic investors No state involvement, the Golden Share was abolished in 2007 The most important individual stakeholders: Groupama Group, MOL and the Rahimkulov family, all below 10% stake Retail Loan Product And Direct Banking Services Of The Year In 2008 OTP Group s Capabilities Best Bank In CEE 2008 Best Bank In Hungary 2008, 2009 OTP is the most liquid stock in a peer group comparison in terms of average daily turnover** Average daily turnover in EUR million Avg. daily turnover to current market cap. 37 OTP 31 PKO 24 Erste 21 Pekao 14 Komercni 11 Raiffeisen 0.64% 0.24% 0.17% 0.20% 0.21% 0.13% Bank of the Year 2009; Best Bank in Crisis Management 2009 Best Private Bank in Central & Eastern Europe, 2010 Bank of the Year in Hungary 2009 Best Bank in Hungary in 2008, 2009 and 2010 * State Enterprises, Foreign individuals and International Development Institutions (including EBRD). ** in the last half year (end date: 21/02/2011) on the primary stock exchange 3

4 After many years of high growth and high profitability before the crisis, OTP has proved to be successful during the crisis demonstrating sustainable earning capacity over the business cycle Strong and resilient profitability steadily improving PAT until 08; average ROE twice as high as the industrial average and almost matching it during the crisis Outstanding capital strength consolidated CAR at 17.5%; Tier1 at 14%; Bank-only HAR CAR at 18.1%; all major indicators are better than for regional peers without any external capital enhancement; 2nd best results on the CEBS stress test Consolidated Net Profits (HUF bn) CAGR 24% Tangible equity/tangible assets rates in international comparison*** 11.0% 7.1% 5.0% 4.3% % % ROE* % 29.8 OTP Raiffeisen KBC Erste Intesa Uni- OTP Raiffeisen Erste Unicredit SP credit 4Q10 3Q10 4Q10 4Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 3Q10 4Q10 3Q aver age OTP Group s capital adequacy ratios in regional comparison*** 17.5% Tier2 Tier1 3.5% 14.0% 13.6% 3.9% 13.6% 3.4% 13.0% 3.3% 9.7% 10.2% 9.7% 13.4 Banking tax Goodwill write-off Comm. Bankavera ge** Strong liquidity position gross operating liquidity exceeds EUR 5.0 billion equivalent 2.5 times as high as all outstanding external FX obligations until 2015 Total liquidity breakdown (31 January 2011, equivalent in EUR million) 5,018 Total 2,852 Primary**** 2,166 Repoable bonds (mortg. & muni) Group level FX maturities (EUR mn) 1,500 1, , Covered Bond Bilateral Loan Bond * Calculated from the Group s adjusted net profit, excluding one-timers as the result of the sale of OTP Garancia in 2008 and goodwill write-offs in 2008 and 2010 as well as the result of the strategic open FX position between 2007 and 2009, consolidated dividends and net cash transfers, and special bank tax in ** Average between 2Q ***Source: Bloomberg, OTP **** Bonds issued by the National Bank of Hungary + government bonds + liquid asset surplus within 1 month 4

5 30% average ROE pre-crisis and 13%* during the crisis due to strong revenue margins, strict cost control and a relatively stress-resilient loan book Average ROE* 31.6% 32.6% 30.3% 31.1% 35.3% 32.3% 27.9% 24.7% 22.5% 13.4% 12.9% 28.1%*** CAGR 29.8% Total Revenue Margin 7.60% 7.88% 8.24% 8.55% 9.49% 9.28% 8.03% 8.09% 8.22% 7.93%** 8.09%** Net Interest Margin 5.03% 5.23% 5.36% 5.70% 6.84% 6.34% 5.81% 5.64% 5.79% 6.17% 6.16%** 8.38% 5.75% Focusing on the high margin content retail business as well as on the underpenetrated, fast growing CEE markets secured continuously high Net Interest- and Total Revenue Margin for the Group Risk Cost Rate 0.89% 0.81% 0.82% 0.64% 0.70% 0.95% 0.62% 0.82% 1.69% 3.57% 0.88% 3.77%** Costs / Average Assets Ratio**** 4.88% 4.81% 4.96% 4.87% 4.98% 4.59% 4.01% 4.26% 4.08% 3.65% 3.62% 4.60% Continuous operational efficiency improvement Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)***** % 17.1% 13.3% 13.5% 12.9% 11.7% 13.4% 15.4% 17.2% 14.2% 17.5% 8.0%*** Total Assets in HUF billion 2,053 2,290 2,717 3,461 4,162 5,216 7,097 8,462 9,368 9, % 9,781 * Calculated from the Group s adjusted after tax profit, excluding one-timers as the result of the sale of OTP Garancia and goodwill write-offs in 2008 and 2010, the special bank tax in 2010, the result of the strategic open FX position in and consolidated dividends and net cash transfers. ** Adjusted for oneoff revenue and risk cost items in 2009 and 2010 *** Hypothetical calculation: with 8% CAR both in 2009 and 2010, ROE would be 28.1% - without the effect of the yield of excess capital. **** Insurance premiums and insurance expenses are netted and shown on other non interest income line ***** CAR: consolidated, under Hungarian Accounting Standards until 2004, from 2005 under IFRS Definitions. 5

6 Full-year 2010 consolidated adjusted profit reached HUF 162 billion, representing a yearly growth of 7%, the accounting profit declined by 22%, mainly as a consequence of the Hungarian bank tax After tax profit (consolidated, adjusted 1 ) (in HUF billion) % +7% % Bank tax Goodwill writedown After tax profit, accounting Financial highlights of OTP Group (consolidated, IFRS) Operating profit (adj.) in HUF billion Total income margin (adj. 2 ) 8.22% 7.93% 8.09% Net interest margin (adj. 2 ) 5.79% 6.17% 6.16% Operating cost / avg. assets 4.08% 3.65% 3.62% ROE, adjusted 1 (%) Risk cost rate (adj. 2 ) 1.69% 3.57% 3.77% 22.5 DPD90+ ratio (%) 4.5% 9.8% 13.7% Bank tax 2.4 Goodwill writedown 1.2 ROE calculated 9.4 from accounting profit Change of DPD90+ ratio (y-o-y, %-point) 0.9% 5.3% 3.9% DPD90+ coverage (%) 85.8% 73.6% 74.4% Change of DPD90+ coverage (y-o-y, %-pont) 0.8% -12.2% 0.8% Loan volume change (y-o-y) 15% -3% -0,3% 1 After-tax profit without one-off items (result of the strategic open position, goodwill impairment, consolidated dividends, result on the sale of OTP Garancia and special tax on financial institutions). 2 Without one-off items (Upper Tier2 buyback, FX-swap revaluation, revaluation of FX provisions at OTP Core, FX-result offsetting the revaluation of FX-provisions at OTP Core and FX-gain related to FX-hedging of the provisions of some FX-loans of OJSC Ukraine). 6

7 Capital adequacy ratios of both OTP Group (consolidated) and OTP Bank (unconsolidated) are above regulatory minimum and remained outstandingly high in international comparison Capital Adequacy Ratio OTP Group consolidated (IFRS) Capital Adequacy Ratio OTP Bank unconsolidated (HAR) Tier2 Tier2 Tier1 Tier1 18.1% 17.2% 17.5% 16.2% 15.4% +0.3%p 13.4% +1.9%p +1.8%p 12.0% 11.0% +2.0%p +4.2%p +1.1%p 15.4% 13.7% 14.0% 13.1% 11.3% 9.0% 8.3% 7.0% OTP Group s capital adequacy ratio in international comparison* 17.5% 16.5% Tier2 3.5% 13.6% 13.6% 13.0% 12.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.9% 3.3% 3.6% Amount of capital received from the state* (in EUR billion) 7.0 Tier1 14.0% 10.2% 9.7% 9.7% 8.9% 12.6% OTP Erste Raiffeisen Unicredit Intesa SP KBC OTP Erste Raiffeisen KBC 4Q 10 4Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 *Source: Bloomberg, OTP 7

8 CEBS stress test results of OTP Group are sound and well above the expected 6% level. Under the most adverse scenario OTP s Tier1 ratio is the 2 nd best in Europe 20% 15% OTP Group, 4Q 2010 actual CAR: 17.5% Tier1: 14.0% Tier1 ratios under the most adverse scenario (2011) % 6%* 5% 0% The EU-wide stress testing exercise of financial institutions, coordinated by the Committee of European Banking Diada Agric. Bank of Greece Cajasur Unnim Banca Civica Hypo Real Estate Espiga Piraeus Pastor Caja Sol Caja3 Guipuzcoano NordLB M PS Colonya NLB Jupiter AIB Deutsche Postbank Ontinyent Ibercaja UBI Bankinter Espirito Santo Banco Popolare Popular Mare Nostrum Vital M arfin W estlb Bank of Ireland Sabadell Breogan Helaba NBG Caixa RZB Unicredit Base Erste Bank of Cyprus Alpha Bank Intesa Caixa Geral EFG Eurobank Dekabank Banco Comerc. Port. BPCE DZ Bank Bayern LB ING Bank SHB CASA Unicaja Com m erzbank W GZ Bank Lloyds Bank of Valletta BBVA KBC BNP Paribas Deutsche Bank HSH Nordbank ABN/Fortis Bank Swedbank Nordea Danske Bank SocGen Santander TT Hellenic Postbank Banco BPI HSBC SEB SNS Bank FHB Kutxa RBS Dexia Landesbank Berlin Banque et Caisse d'ep OP-Pohjola Jyske Bank Rabobank Sydbank Barclays BBK PKO BANK OTP Banca March Diada Agric. Bank of Greece Cajasur Unnim Banca Civica Hypo Real Estate Espiga Piraeus Pastor Caja Sol Caja3 Guipuzcoano NordLB M PS Colonya NLB Jupiter AIB Deutsche Postbank O ntinyent Ibercaja UBI Bankinter Espirito Santo Banco Popolare Popular M are Nostrum Vital M arfin W estlb Bank of Ireland Sabadell Breogan Helaba NBG Caixa RZB Unicredit Base Erste Bank of Cyprus Alpha Bank Intesa Caixa Geral EFG Eurobank Dekabank Banco Com erc. Port. BPCE DZ Bank Bayern LB ING Bank SHB CASA Unicaja Com m erzbank W G Z Bank Lloyds Bank of Valletta BBVA KBC BNP Paribas Deutsche Bank HSH Nordbank ABN/Fortis Bank Swedbank Nordea Danske Bank SocG en Santander TT Hellenic Postbank Banco BPI HSBC SEB SNS Bank FHB Kutxa RBS Dexia Landesbank Berlin Banque et Caisse d'ep O P-Pohjola Jyske Bank Rabobank Sydbank Barclays BBK PKO BANK O TP Banca M arch Supervisors (CEBS) has been carried out by 91 banks from 20 EU Member States. Among others OTP Bank Plc. has represented Hungary in the test. Based on the parameters defined by ECB and CEBS, under the most adverse scenario OTP Group s Tier1 ratio would stand at 16.2% by the end of 2011, which is more than four times the mandatory minimum level of 4% and which was the 2 nd best in international comparison. * 6% threshold used exclusively for the purpose of this stress test exercise. 8

9 Stable capital adequacy across the Group, unconsolidated CAR ratios above regulatory minimum Capital adequacy ratios ( CAR ) (according to local regulations) Min. CAR Q10 4Q10 Capital transactions within OTP Group in 2010 OTP Group (IFRS) 8% 15.4% 17.2% 18.0% 17.5% Hungary 8% 12.0% 16.2% 17.8% 18.1% Russia 11% 17.4% 13.3% 16.7% 17.0% Ukraine 10% 10.3% 17.8% 20.0% 22.1% Bulgaria 12% 18.0% 21.9% 25.4% 23.7% Romania 10% 14.0% 14.3% 11.8% 14.0% 1 1 On 16 November 2010 the statutory capital of OTP Bank Romania was increased in the amount of RON 80 million (~EUR 18.7 million). Serbia 12% 32.9% 27.1% 21.4% 16.4% Croatia 10% 12.3% 13.4% 14.2% 14.2% 2 2 On 30 September 2010 OTP Bank Croatia paid a dividend to OTP Bank (Hungary), the mother company in the amount of HRK 200 million (~EUR 27.4 million). Slovakia 8% 10.5% 10.7% 11.0% 11.1% Montenegro 10% 12.1% 13.4% 11.8% 14.1% 3 3 In order to secure the safe operation of the bank, at the end of June 2010 OTP Bank injected EUR 35 million capital into its Montenegrin subsidiary. 9

10 Since 2008, consolidated net loan-to-deposit ratio follows a downward trajectory as a result of a 5% annual contraction in net loans and unbroken growth in deposits Net Loan-to-Deposit Ratio* (%, consolidated) CAGR of Consolidated Net Loans, Deposits and Retail Bonds* ( ) 136% -29%p 114% 108% Net Loans -5% Deposits and Retail Bonds 7% * In order to adjust for changes in the exchange rate, 2008 and 2009 year end volumes are translated to HUF by using end 2010 exchange rates of the HUF. Consolidated deposits include retail bonds sold in Hungary between 2007 and 2010, and are adjusted for the one off deposit withdrawal of OTP Fund Management at end 2010 (the letter volumes were deposited again in January 2011). 10

11 Continuous internal FX liquidity generation by the business lines since the beginning of the crisis, the newly generated average monthly FX liquidity exceeded EUR 90 million in the last 10 month Cumulated internal FX liquidity generation (from 29/12/2007, in HUF billion) EUR 186 million 900 Average monthly liquidity generation Sources of the intra-group FX liquidity generation: Retail FX lending in Hungary and in the Ukraine was stopped, the repayments from the outstanding FX loan books are continuously generating FX liquidity EUR 94 million The corporate loan portfolio does not need additional FX liquidity, new disbursements and repayments are balanced From May 2010, the pace of FX liquidity generation 0 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 decelerated, the reason behind is the group-wide repricing of FX deposits 11

12 Since the beginning of the crisis, external redemptions of OTP Group have been covered by intra-group generated liquidity instead of new wholesale issuances Gross Liquidity Buffer* (EUR million equivalent) Wholesale Funding Transactions at OTP Parent Level (in EUR million, equivalent) Issuances * Senior Notes Mortgage Bonds (EUR) Syndicated Loans Lower Tier2 Capital F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Gross operating liquidity is 2.5 times as high as all outstanding external FX obligations until Repayments * Preliminary plans, mortgage bond issuances are planned both in EUR and CHF terms. 12

13 Despite strong profitability, capital and liquidity position, rating map of countries and subsidiaries in OTP Universe suggest the strong sovereign ceiling effect (rating outlook) + positive - negative 0 stable Moody's Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 LATEST RATING NEWS Sovereign and OTP Bank rating OTP Moody's OTP S&P Sov Moody's Sov S&P S&P Fitch downgraded OTP Bank's Support Rating to '3' from '2 and affirmed the Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of OJSC OTP Bank at 'BB' with a Negative Outlook. (30 December 2010) Fitch downgraded Hungary's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BBB- from 'BBB' and its Long-term local currency IDR to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'. The Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs remained negative. (23 December 2010) S&P lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of Croatia to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The outlook is negative. (21 December 2010) Moody's Investors Service downgraded the foreign currency deposit ratings of OTP Bank and OTP Mortgage Bank to 'Baa3/Prime-3' from 'Baa1/Prime-2. (7 December 2010) Moody's Investors Service downgraded Hungary's foreign- and local-currency government bond ratings by two notches to Baa3 from Baa1. (6 December 2010) Fitch Ratings has revised Serbia's Outlooks to Stable from Negative. Its ratings have been affirmed at 'BB-' (11 November 2010) S&P affirmed its ratings on Hungary 'BBB-/A-3', the outlook stays negative on concerns about deficit and medium-term growth. (03 November 2010) Moody's changed the outlook on Ukraine's 'B2' government bond ratings to stable from negative and also changed to stable from negative the outlooks on Ukraine's 'B1' foreign currency bond ceiling and its 'B3' foreign currency deposit ceiling. (11 October 2010) Fitch affirmed Russia's long-term foreign and local currency IDRs at 'BBB'. The outlooks for the long-term IDRs have been revised to positive from stable. (8 September 2010) After having placed Ukraine s sovereign credit ratings on CreditWatch with positive implications on 22 July 2010, S&P raised its long-term sovereign foreign and local currency ratings on Ukraine by one notch to 'B+' from 'B' and to 'BB-' from 'B+', respectively. Furthermore, the 'B' short-term local and foreign currency ratings were affirmed. The outlook is stable. (29 July 2010) A+ A A- BBB+ BBB 6,8 7,1 7,2 BBB- HU(-), CR(-) BBB- AA- BBB- 6BB+ BB OTP Bank (Hungary) OTP Mortgage Bank (HU) OTP Banka Slovensko (SK) DSK Bank (Bulgaria) OAO OTP Bank (Russia) OTP Bank JSC (Ukraine) Aaa AAA AAA Aa1 AA+ AA+ Aa2 AA AA Aa3 AA- AA- A1 SK(0) A+ SK(0) A+ SK(0) A2 A A A3 A- A- Baa1 RU(0) BBB+ BBB+ Baa2 BBB RU(0), BG(0) BBB RU(+) Baa3 Moody s Standard & Poor s Fitch BG(+), CR(0), RO(0), HU(-) Moody s S&P Fitch Baa3 (-) Baa3 (-) Baa3 (-) Baa3 (-) Ba1 (-) B3 (0) BB+ (0) BB+ (0) HU(-), BG(-), CR(-) Ba1 BB+ RO(0) BB+ RO(0) Ba2 BB MN(-) BB BB (-) Ba3 MN(-) BB- SRB(0) BB- SRB(0) B1 B+ UA(0) B+ B2 UA(0) B B UA(0) B3 B- B- Caa1 CCC+ CCC+ Last updated: 30/12/2010 Country ratings: long term foreign currency government bond ratings, Bank ratings: long term foreign currency deposit ratings Abbreviations: BG - Bulgaria, CR - Croatia, HU - Hungary, MN - Montenegro, RO - Romania, RU - Russia, SRB - Serbia, SK - Slovakia, UA - Ukraine 13

14 Forward looking statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, and businesses of OTP Bank. These statements and forecasts involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors which could cause actual results or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward looking statements and forecasts. The statements have been made with reference to forecast price changes, economic conditions and the current regulatory environment. Nothing in this announcement should be construed as a guaranteed profit forecast. Investor Relations Tel: ; Fax: investor.relations@otpbank.hu 14