FIXED INCOME INVESTOR PRESENTATION 1Q'16

Transcription

1 FIXED INCOME INVESTOR PRESENTATION 1Q'16

2 Important information Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are found in various places throughout this presentation and include, without limitation, statements concerning our future business development and economic performance. While these forward-looking statements represent our judgment and future expectations concerning the development of our business, a number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from our expectations. These factors include, but are not limited to: (1) general market, macroeconomic, governmental and regulatory trends; (2) movements in local and international securities markets, currency exchange rates and interest rates; (3) competitive pressures; (4) technological developments; and (5) changes in the financial position or credit worthiness of our customers, obligors and counterparties. The risk factors that we have indicated in our past and future filings and reports, including those with the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States of America (the SEC ) could adversely affect our business and financial performance. Other unknown or unpredictable factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forwardlooking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made and are based on the knowledge, information available and views taken on the date on which they are made; such knowledge, information and views may change at any time. Santander does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information contained in this presentation is subject to, and must be read in conjunction with, all other publicly available information, including, where relevant any fuller disclosure document published by Santander. Any person at any time acquiring securities must do so only on the basis of such person's own judgment as to the merits or the suitability of the securities for its purpose and only on such information as is contained in such public information having taken all such professional or other advice as it considers necessary or appropriate in the circumstances and not in reliance on the information contained in the presentation. In making this presentation available, Santander gives no advice and makes no recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in shares in Santander or in any other securities or investments whatsoever. Neither this presentation nor any of the information contained therein constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. No offering of securities shall be made in the United States except pursuant to registration under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or an exemption therefrom. Nothing contained in this presentation is intended to constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity for the purposes of the prohibition on financial promotion in the U.K. Financial Services and Markets Act Note: Statements as to historical performance or financial accretion are not intended to mean that future performance, share price or future earnings (including earnings per share) for any period will necessarily match or exceed those of any prior year. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast. The businesses included in each of our geographic segments and the accounting principles under which their results are presented here may differ from the included businesses and local applicable accounting principles of our public subsidiaries in such geographies. Accordingly, the results of operations and trends shown for our geographic segments my differ materially from those of such subsidiaries. 2

3 1Q'16 Financial Highlights Attributable profit of 1,633 million vs. 1Q 15-5% in euros +8% (currency-neutral basis) Commercial revenues up y-o-y (currency-neutral basis) Net interest income Fee income +6% +7% Enhanced balance sheet quality and lower cost of credit NPL ratio 4.33% Cost of credit 1.22% Capital increase compatible with high RoTE FL CET % RoTE 11.1% 3

4 1Q'16 Business Highlights Var. Mar 16 / Mar 15 Selective growth: Lending to individuals and SMEs (+4%) Demand deposits (+9%) Loans +4% Funds +4% Loyal customers: 14.0 million Individuals +899,000 +8% Companies +110, % Digital customers: 17.8 million Total customers +2.6 mill. +17% Mobile banking users +2.4 mill. +49% Note: Loans excluding repos. Customer funds: deposits excluding repos + marketed mutual funds. % change on a currency-neutral basis 4

5 STABLE PROFIT GENERATION Our business model allows us to generate high pre-provision profit which provide us with a high capacity to absorb provisions Group net operating income (Pre-provision profit, EUR bn.) Profitability drivers 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% % 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% PPP/ loans Cost of credit 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% Note: 2013 data has been re-expressed to reflect the gain of control of Santander Consumer USA (SCUSA), in 2014, and the loss of control of certain fund management companies in 2013, as if such changes had been effective as of January1st

6 MEDIUM-LOW RISK MODEL. LOAN PORTFOLIO Santander loan portfolio: high diversified and collateralised Mar 16 Loan portfolio 1 by country Other America 0.5% Argentina 1% Chile 4% Brazil 8% UK 33% Mexico 4% USA 11% 787 bn 41% of the total loan portfolio are home mortgages 2 Other Europe 2% Portugal 4% Poland 3% SCF 10% Spain 20% RWAs as of March 2016: 572bn (1) Net customer loans (2) Data as of Dec 15 6

7 MEDIUM-LOW RISK MODEL. LOAN PORTFOLIO Cost of credit and credit quality continue to improve in 2016 NPL and coverage ratios (%) NPL ratio Coverage pp 74 Spain UK -52bps M'14 M'15 M'16 Cost of credit (%) NPL M'15 J'15 S'15 D'15 M' M'15 J'15 S'15 D'15 M' bp -19bp Brazil M'15 J'15 S'15 D'15 M'16 USA M'15 J'15 S'15 D'15 M'16 M'14 M'15 M'16 7

8 MEDIUM-LOW RISK MODEL. LOAN PORTFOLIO Credit quality evolved much better than other private sector banks in Brazil thanks to our change of mix and risk management NPLs Over 90 days Cost of credit Local criteria Local criteria 5.8% 4.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.3% Peer1 Peer2 SAN 5.6% 5.1% 3.5% 6.5% 5.3% 3.9% 4.8% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 3.4% 4.9% 4.2% 3.9% Peer1 Peer2 SAN M'13 M'14 M'15 M'16 M'12 M'13 M'14 M'15 M'16 High coverage ratio: Santander 200% (181% M 15) 8

9 MEDIUM-LOW RISK MODEL. LOAN PORTFOLIO Santander loan portfolio: retail, granular and diversified by economic sector Credit risk distribution Corporate banking 16% Individuals 57% SMEs, companies and institutions 27% Data as of Dec 15 9

10 MEDIUM-LOW RISK MODEL. LOAN PORTFOLIO Exposure to Oil&Gas: limited and diversified by clients and geographies Data as of Mar 16 Total Exposure Oil & Gas Rating Detail < BB+, 13% - Oilfield Services EUR 2.3 Bn - Guarantees and Derivatives* EUR 3.6 Bn Oil & Gas financing (net) EUR 13.7 Bn - Unused limits EUR 4.7 Bn BB+, 8% BBB / BBB-, 27% BBB+, 52% Funded Oil & Gas (net) EUR 9.0 Bn Geographic Distribution Other, EMEA, 18% Latam, ** 29% Total Funded <1.2% of the Group s loan portfolio Asia, 8% * Derivatives: 0.88Bn ** Latam: Brazil 13% and Mexico 12% Spain, 15% USA, 13% UK, 17% 10

11 MEDIUM-LOW RISK MODEL. LOAN PORTFOLIO Exposure to Mining&Steel: limited and diversified by clients and geographies Total Exposure Mining & Steel Rating Detail < BB+, 30% - Guarantees and Derivatives EUR 3.8 Bn BBB+, 37% Mining&Steel financing (net) EUR 6.7 Bn - Back up lines EUR 1.3 Bn Funded Mining & Steel (net) Total Funded <0.7% of the Group s loan portfolio EUR 5.4 Bn BB+, 16% Geographic Distribution USA, 4% Chile, 5% BBB / BBB-, 17% Argentina, 5% Mexico, 2% United Kingdom, 27% Continental Europe, 28% * Brazil, 30% * Continental Europe: Spain 9%, Poland 9%, Germany 5% and France 5% 11

12 Capital

13 FULLY LOADED CAPITAL Making progress to reach our target of fully-loaded CET1 >11% in 2018, with profitable activity growth Fully-loaded CET1 (%) Loan growth > RWAs growth Base 100 (currency-neutral basis) 10.05% % Loans bp RWAs CET1 Dec 15 Ordinary generation Regulatory one-off Perimeter AFS and other CET1 Mar 16 M'15 J'15 S'15 D'15 M'16 The fully-loaded total ratio rose to 13.49%, including a T2 issue carried out in April by the parent bank for 1.5 billion Fully-loaded leverage ratio improvement: 4.8% at Mar'16 (4.6% Mar'15) Note: on February 3 rd 2016, the ECB authorised the use of the Alternative Standardised Approach to calculate the capital charge for operational risk on a consolidated level for Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. 13

14 CAPITAL Santander is committed to fulfil the AT1&T2 buckets through the transitional period Hypothesis: RWAs growth of ~3.5% per year. No excess of generic provision in 2018 (prudent approach) Average capital generation of 10bps per quarter. Excess of generic provision 0,65% Expected total capital ratio in December % 2.05% TIER2 1.2% 0.65% 0.87% > 14.5% AT1 issuances to target of 1.5% in 2018: ~ 4.3bn T2 issuances to target of 2% in 2018: ~ 5.6bn ( 1.5bn already issued in April 2016) 0.95% 10.05% TIER1 CET1 FL ratio March 16: 10.27% Total Capital FL ratio March 16: 13.23% Group FL Total capital ratio 2015 Expected organic capital generation AT1 issuances to target T2 issuances to target Expected total capital ratio

15 CAPITAL Regulatory Capital As of Mar-2016 surplus of 261bps over the minimum required Capital ratio 14.18% Estimated cumulating transitional deductions from CET1 phase in: ~90 bps in 2017 and ~130pbs in 2018 Target of CET1 FL >11% in Dec-2018 CET % 9.75% CET1 0.25% 5% 4.5% Systemic buffer Pilar II requirement (including capital conservation buffer) Minimum Pilar I Management buffer >50 bps above Pillar 2 requirement in 2019 Total capital target FL >14.5% at end 2018 Regulatory ratios Mar'16 Regulatory requirement 2016 CET1 1 (1) Minimum prudential requirements established by the ECB, based on the supervisory review and evaluation process (SREP) 15

16 CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Significant payment capacity from distributable items: As of Dec-2015 ADIs at Santander Parent Bank 48.3bn more than150x times estimated 2016 full AT1 cost Wide margin with respect to the conversion trigger, ie. 7.4% / 43.5bn (Group), 9.1% / 36.1bn (Parent Bank) 12.36% 14.11% Comfortable buffer to MDA: As of Mar-2016 the CET1 of the Group was 261bps over the minimum required and 93bps including AT1 and T2 gaps Group CET1 phase in Mar.16 Parent Bank CET1 phase in Mar.16 16

17 TLAC

18 TOTAL LOSS ABSORBING CAPACITY (TLAC) TLAC for Santander Full implementation on 1 st January Therefore TLAC requirements will be 16% + Buffers (18% from 2022). Out of 16% up to 2.5% can be met with ordinary senior unsecured (3.5% from 2022). Santander has a resolution strategy approach of multiple point of entry (MPE). TLAC requirement is stablished at each resolution entity being TLAC requirement at consolidated level a floor. The regulation is work in progress. As of December 2015 and depending on the interpretation of the FSB s Term Sheet, TLAC shortfall for Santander in 2019 is estimated between 20-25bn (base case) and 30-35bn (worst case). If finally there was an homogeneous decision at European level in line with the German statutory solution, Santander Group would be already compliant with TLAC taking into account the current stock of unsecured debt in the balance sheet. Under both scenarios, the fulfillment of TLAC requirements is an optimization exercise for Santander 18

19 TOTAL LOSS ABSORBING CAPACITY (TLAC) MPE approach follows Santander model of autonomous subsidiaries in capital and liquidity USA Portugal UK Mexico Brazil Spain Poland Chile Argentina Total T1 CET1 19 Local criteria as of March Figures are subject to usual regulatory approval

20 TOTAL LOSS ABSORBING CAPACITY (TLAC) The estimates of TLAC are based on our current interpretation of the FSB s Term Sheet 1 Base case scenario: 20-25bn Negative impact Positive impact Final transposition to EU and relevant jurisdictions Final Senior debt treatment Internal TLAC treatment Deductions and mitigants final treatment Evolution of the excess of generic provision in T2 Worst case scenario: 30-35bn 20 (1) 9 November 2015 (the FSB TLAC Term Sheet )

21 TOTAL LOSS ABSORBING CAPACITY (TLAC) TLAC: Santander 3 year plan CET1 (organic generation): 2.4bn per year + AT1: 1bn-1.5bn per year +...mainly from the Parent Bank and San UK T2: ~ 2bn per year* + Other TLAC Eligible Debt: 1-3bn per year (base case) or 4-6bn per year (worst case) anywhere (*) In April the parent bank carried out a T2 issue for 1,500 million 21

22 Liquidity and Funding

23 LIQUIDITY AND FUNDING Santander s liquidity management is based on the following principles: Decentralised liquidity model. Needs derived from medium- and long-term activity must be financed by medium- and long-term instruments. High contribution from customer deposits, due to the retail nature of the balance sheet. Diversification of wholesale funding sources by instruments/investors, markets/currencies and terms. Limited recourse to wholesale short- term funding. Availability of sufficient liquidity reserves, including the discounting capacity in central banks to be use in adverse situations. Compliance with regulatory liquidity requirements required at Group and subsidiary level, as a new conditioning management factor.

24 LIQUIDITY AND FUNDING Decentralised liquidity model 2015 Group s medium and long term issues 1 Issues maturity. EUR billion Mar 16 USA 12.4bn UK 15.6bn Nordics 1.4bn Rest of Europe 20.0bn Parent SCF Mexico 0.6bn Brazil 9.5bn Total issued in 2015 UK bn Brazil Others Subordinated Debt Senior Debt Covered Bond Preferred Shares (1) Figures include securitisations. Average issuance per year of 40-45bn excluding securitisations 24

25 LIQUIDITY AND FUNDING Well-funded balance sheet with high structural liquidity surplus Liquidity balance sheet (Mar 16) % Retail banking balance sheet- High share of retail deposits Diversified Wholesale Funding with focus on M/L-T Net loans to customers 75% 65% Deposits Very low recourse to S-T funding 6% Securitisations Low Commercial Gap: EUR 103 bn. Fixed assets & other 8% 14% Funding M/LP Financial assets 17% Assets 12% 2% Liabilities Equity and other Funding CP High structural liquidity 1 surplus: EUR bn. (14% net liabilities) Note: Liquidity balance sheet for management purposes (net of trading derivatives and interbank balances). Provisional (1) Financial assets short term wholesale funding markets 25

26 LIQUIDITY AND FUNDING Liquidity metrics Net loans/net assets 79% 75% 74% 74% 75% Net loan-to-deposit ratio (LTD) Customer deposits and medium- and long-term funding/net loans Short-term wholesale funding/net liabilities* Structural liquidity surplus (% net liabilities*) 150% 113% 112% 113% 116% 104% 117% 118% 116% 114% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 16% 16% 15% 14% Net loan-todeposit ratio Deposits + M & LT funding / net loans Spain 89% 149% Portugal 97% 121% SCF 226% 69% Poland 88% 115% UK 122% 107% Brazil 106% 128% Mexico 107% 101% Chile 133% 98% Argentina 78% 130% US 140% 115% Total Group 116% 114% (*) Balance sheet for liquidity management purposes. Note: in 2012 and 2013 customer deposits include retail commercial paper in Spain (excluding short term wholesale funding). The 2012 and 2013 ratios include SC USA by global integration, the same as in Source: 2015 Group Annual report

27 LIQUIDITY AND FUNDING Liquidity metrics Título del gráfico Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) High Liquid Assets 146% Cash value (net of haircuts) 120% Million 2015 Geography Dec'14 Dec'15 Cash and deposits at central banks Unencumbered sovereign debt Undrawn credit lines granted by central Banks 48,051 85, ,033 UK 51% Eurozone 27% US 9% Brazil 4% Rest 9% Encumbered assets (Group) Assets eligible as colateral and undrawn credit lines 14,202 Liquidity reserve 257,740 Note: the reserve excludes other assets of high liquidity such as listed fixed income and equity portfolios. 76% 24% Dec Source: 2015 Group Annual report

28 Final Remarks Strong continuous generation of capital supported by strong group pre-provision profitability has provided Santander with a high capacity to absorb provisions during the crisis and should continue to underpin the group's earnings generation capacity. Strong capital levels in line with Santander s business model based on wide geographic diversification, solid market positions in the markets where it operates and independency subsidiary model in terms of capital and liquidity. The Group is well above the regulatory capital requirement. Significant payment capacity from distributable items and wide margin to triggers (conversion and MDA). Capacity to generate capital organically at an average rate of 10bps per quarter maintaining business growth. TLAC shortfall in the worst case scenario is manageable for Santander. Comfortable liquidity position: Compliance with regulatory liquidity requirements established at Group and subsidiary level with high availability of liquidity reserves. 28

29 Thank you Our purpose is to help people and businesses prosper. Our culture is based on the belief that everything we do should be