Survey af adfærd, præferencer og forventninger for private investorer i Danmark, Sverige, Norge og Finland. Investor Compass

Transcription

1 EUROPE BONDS STOCKS CHINA JAPAN SELL BUY US Survey af adfærd, præferencer og forventninger for private investorer i Danmark, Sverige, Norge og. Investor Compass Private investors in the Nordic region SECOND HALF OF 2015

2 PAGE 2 INVESTOR COMPASS 2015 ABOUT THE SURVEY Investor Compass is Danske Invest's semi-annual survey of private investors' behaviour, preferences and plans regarding the financial markets, and their future expectations of various asset classes. 4,085 private individuals across the Nordic region completed a digital questionnaire for this survey. See the breakdown by country below. The respondents are all eighther active investors, or interested in investment. In this report they are collectively reffered to as private investors, unless otherwise stated. TNS Gallup performed this survey on behalf of Danske Invest

3 PAGE 3 CONTENTS 2015 Contents 4 Data basis for the survey PROFILE OF THE RESPONDENTS 6 Preferences: Across asset classes EQUITIES STILL COMMAND MOST INTEREST 7 Expectations: Equities POSITIVE EXPECTATIONS OF THE EQUITY MARKETS 8 Preferences: Equities/countries PREFERENCE FOR LOCAL EQUITY MARKETS 10 Preferences: Equities/regions CLOSE RUN BETWEEN GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN EQUITIES 12 Preferences: Bonds MORE DIVIDED INTEREST IN BONDS 13 Preferences: Alternative investments CHANGE IN INTEREST REGARDING ALTERNATIVES 14 Risk: History REDUCTION IN INVESTORS' APPETITE FOR RISK

4 PAGE 4 INVESTOR COMPASS 2015 DATA BASIS FOR THE SURVEY Profile of the respondents DANISH INVESTORS SWEDISH IN- VESTORS NUMBER OF PERSONS NUMBER OF GENDER 59% 41% PERSONS GENDER 56% 44% 76% Currently active investors 88% Currently active investors 24% Interested in investing 12% Interested in investing CAPITAL AVAILABLE FOR INVESTMENT CAPITAL AVAILABLE FOR INVESTMENT 18% 17% Up to DKK 500,000 DKK 500,000-1,000,000 More than DKK 1,000,000 Do not know/prefer not to answer 12% 10% 60% Up to DKK 500,000 DKK 500,000-1,000,000 More than DKK 1,000,000 Do not know/prefer not to answer 27% 38% 18% WHICH TYPES OF INVESTMENTS DO YOU CURRENTLY HAVE? WHICH TYPES OF INVESTMENTS DO YOU CURRENTLY HAVE? Equities - indiv idual equities 67% Equities - indiv idual equities 54% Equities - v ia funds 26% Equities - v ia funds 70% Bonds - indiv idual securities 12% Bonds - indiv idual securities 16% Bonds - v ia funds Bonds - v ia funds 22% Funds with both equities and bonds Funds with both equities and bonds 37% Alternative investments* 7 Alternative investments* 16% Cash 35 % Cash 53% 0% 100% 0% 100% Note: The calculation of the percentage of current investments is solely based omn the data provided by the individuals who are currently active investors. Note: *E.g. hedge funds, real estate, commodities and private equity.

5 PAGE 5 NORWEGIAN INVESTORS FINNISH INVESTORS NUMBER OF PERSONS GENDER 54% 46% NUMBER OF PERSONS GENDER 57% 43% 72% Currently active investors 77% Currently active investors 28% Interested in investing 23% Interested in investing CAPITAL AVAILABLE FOR INVESTMENT CAPITAL AVAILABLE FOR INVESTMENT Up to DKK 500,000 15% Up to DKK 50,000 DKK 500,000-1,000,000 More than DKK 1,000,000 Do not know/prefer not to answer 22% DKK 50, ,000 46% 48% More than DKK 100,000 Do not know/prefer not to answer 16% 11% WHICH TYPES OF INVESTMENTS DO YOU CURRENTLY HAVE? WHICH TYPES OF INVESTMENTS DO YOU CURRENTLY HAVE? Equities - indiv idual equities Equities - v ia funds Bonds - indiv idual securities Bonds - v ia funds Funds with both equities and bonds Alternative investments* Cash 44% Equities - indiv idual equities 55% 62% Equities - v ia funds 49% 3 Bonds - indiv idual securities 12% 9% Bonds - v ia funds 15% Funds with both equities and bonds 40% 13% Alternative investments* 34% Cash 61% 0% 100% 0% 100%

6 PAGE 6 INVESTOR COMPASS 2015 PREFERENCES: ACROSS EQUITY CLASSES Equities continue to command most interest Equities are still the most popular asset class among private Nordic investors, although the interest is diminishing in and. In relation to bonds, increasing interest is shown by Danish and especially Norwegian investors, while interest has diminished slightly in and. Whilst Danish investors are most interested in bonds, Swedish and Finnish investors indicate that cash funds as being most interesting. Despite the slightly diminishing interest, and continue to be the countries with greatest interest in alternative investments. Alternative investments include hedge funds, real estate, commodities and private equity. I FIND THE ASSET CLASS INTERESTING (either very or rather interesting) 100% 90% 80% 75% 70% 68% 68% 70% 60% 60% 59% 56% 50% 51% 40% 30% 41% 36% 35% 34% 35% 26% 29% 28% 29% 44% 39% 38% 38% 41% 34% 38% 41% 29% 41% 35% 31% 10% 12% 0% EQUITIES BONDS ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS CASH MEN ARE STILL MOST INTERESTED IN EQUITIES In all Nordic countries, a higher ratio of male than female investors find equities interesting. The male predominance is most significant in and. SECOND half of 2015 FIRST half of % 64% 57% 53% 61% 55% 54% 48% QUESTION How interesting do you consider the following financial asset classes to be at the present time? RESPONSE OPTIONS Very interesting, rather interesting, neither/nor, not very interesting, not interesting at all, and do not know.

7 PAGE 7 EXPECTATIONS: EQUITIES 2015 Positive expectations of the equity markets With the exception of the Finnish investors, the largest ratio of private investors in the Nordic region expect that equity will rise during the coming 12 months. The fact that the largest ratios of Danes and Swedes expect rising may be due to how in recent years Danish and Swedish equities have appreciated more than Norwegian and Finnish equities. The Finnish investors are the least optimistic, and is the only country in which the majority expect falling equity. A picture is also drawn of how Danes are generally more positive than the other countries, since only 11% of Danish investors expect falling equity. WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION OF THE GENERAL PRICE DEVELOPMENT IN THE EQUITIES MARKET* IN THE COMING 12 MONTHS? Do not know 11% Falling Do not know 10% Falling 45% 24% Unchanged Rising 43% 26% Unchanged Rising Do not know Do not know 14% 27% Falling 8% 30% Falling Rising 23% 35% Rising 24% Unchanged 38% Unchanged Note* The Danish equity market for Danes, the Swedish equity market for Swedes, Norwegian for Norwegians, and Finnish for Finns. QUESTION What is your expectation of the general price development in the stock market in Copenhagen/Stockholm/Oslo/Helsinki in the coming 12 months? RESPONSE OPTIONS Rising equity, unchanged equity, falling equity, and do not know.

8 PAGE 8 INVESTOR COMPASS 2015 PREFERENCES: EQUITIES/COUNTRIES Preference for local equity markets RATIO OF INVESTORS WHO FIND THE COUNTRY INTERESTING WHEN IT COMES TO EQUITIES (either very or rather interesting) The interest in local equities is still high in the Nordic countries. This might be because investors have good knowledge of local companies, since these receive greater media coverage in the respective markets. This is followed by the US, China and Japan as the countries, while the interest in Russia is still at rock bottom. All of the Nordic countries have in common that the Japanese equity market is increasing in popularity. USA NORDIC REGION OVERALL 52% 54% 44% 48% 43%36% 40% 27% Local market* 55% 68% USA 44% 42% China India 36% 31% 39% 36% BRAZIL Japan 31% 25% Brazil Russia 23% 0% 13% 100% 25% 23% 25% 24% 16% 15% 12% SECOND half of 2015 FIRST half of 2015 Note: *The Danish equity market for Danes, the Swedish equity market for Swedes, Norwegian equity market for Norwegians, and Finnish for Finns. SECOND half of 2015 FIRST half of 2015

9 PAGE 9 RUSSIA LOCAL MARKET* 72%73% 75% 63% 63% 48% 62% 55% 12% 12% 22%23% 12% 15% 7% 11% JAPAN 35% 36% 29% 29% 30% 22% 26% CHINA INDIA 50% 36% 36% 36% 46% 39% 31% 26% 26% 29% 54% 42% 41%35% 22%22% QUESTION How interesting do you consider the following countries to be when it comes to equities? RESPONSE OPTIONS Very interesting, rather interesting, neither/nor, not very interesting, not interesting at all, and do not know.

10 PAGE 10 INVESTOR COMPASS 2015 PREFERENCES: EQUITIES/REGIONS Tight race between global and European equities In overall terms, the interest in European equities is at the same level as the results from the last survey. Interest in global equities has increased and is now at the same level as the interest in European equities. The increased interest in global equities is driven primarily by Danish and Norwegian investors. The declining overall interest in equities in and has, however, not af fected the interest in global equities, while the interest in the other equity markets is af fected by this. The Finns show the most interest in emerging markets closely followed by global and European equities. There is least interest in eastern Europe and frontier markets. SECOND half of 2015 FIRST half of 2015 RATIO OF INVESTORS WHO FIND THE REGION INTERESTING IN TERMS OF EQUITIES (either very or rather interesting) GLOBAL EUROPE 58% 48% 62% 58% 60% 61% 55% 65% 54% 40% 49% 56% 46% 54% 45% 40% EMERGING MARKETS IN GENERAL FRONTIER MARKETS 31% 28% 14% 33% 39% 25% 56% 62% 14% 36% 30% QUESTION How interesting do you consider the following regions to be when it comes to equities? RESPONSE OPTIONS Very interesting, rather interesting, neither/nor, not very interesting, not interesting at all, and do not know.

11 PAGE 11 NORDIC REGION OVERALL Europe 53% 55% Global 55% 51% Emerging markets in general 39% 40% Asia 38% 39% Africa 25% 24% Latin America Eastern Europe 16% 17% Frontier markets 18% ASIA AFRICA 37% 30% 22% 18% 42% 54% 33% 35% 41% 46% 24% 27% 30% 28% 14% EASTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA 15% 14% 16% 22% 26% 24% 28% 14% 14% 11% 12% 8% Note:* The Danish equity market for Danes, the Swedish equity market for Swedes, Norwegian for Norwegians, and Finnish for Finns.

12 PAGE 12 INVESTOR COMPASS 2015 PREFERENCES: BONDS Bonds is losing interest Even though Danish, Swedish and Norwegian investors still prefer their local bond market, their interest in European bonds has increased. European government bonds in particular are subject to an increase in interest. The interest in emerging markets is on par with that of the last survey, but with minor regional changes, where a moderately declining interest in is outweighed by a moderately increasing interest in and. The development is rather dif ferent in. The general decline in interest in bonds is reflected in declining interest in both European and emerging market bonds. This tendency mostly af fects the interest in emerging market government bonds, where the interest has declined by 10 percentage points within the past six months. Nonetheless, the Finns still show the greatest interest in emerging market bonds. I FIND THE VARIOUS TYPES OF BONDS INTERESTING (either very or rather interesting) DENMARK NORWAY Danish government and mortgage bonds 44% 40% Norwegian government bonds 26% 22% Danish corporate bonds 47% 42% Norwegian corporate bonds 30% 29% European government bonds 23% 24% European government bonds 12% European corporate bonds 32% 29% European corporate bonds 18% Emerging market government bonds 16% 14% Emerging market government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds 18% 15% Emerging market corporate bonds 22% SWEDEN FINLAND Swedish government and mortgage bonds 30% 29% European government bonds 24% Swedish corporate bonds 35% 34% European corporate bonds 27% European government bonds 24% 15% Emerging market government bonds 26% 36% European corporate bonds 25% Emerging market corporate bonds 30% Emerging market government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds 18% Note: does not have an effective domestic market for local bonds. SECOND half of 2015 First half of 2015 QUESTION RESPONSE OPTIONS How interesting do you consider the following types of bonds to be? Very interesting, rather interesting, neither/nor, not very interesting, not interesting at all, and do not know.

13 PAGE 13 PREFERENCES: ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS 2015 Change in interest regarding alternatives Real estate still attracts most interest in the Nordic region, although interest has declined slightly in and, which is of fset by increasing interest in. The interest in hedge funds is on par with that of the prev ious survey, although with few regional changes. The Swedes, who are both most familiar with and most interested in hedge funds, express a declining interest, while the Danes and Norwegians interest in this asset class has increased slightly. Danish and Norwegian investors, who have no particular exposure to alternatives, indicate increased interest in commodities, but less interest in private equity. I FIND VARIOUS TYPES OF ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS INTERESTING (either very or rather interesting) DENMARK NORWAY Hedge funds 11% 9% Hedge funds 14% 13% Real estate 49% 42% Real estate 66% 67% Commodities 29% 24% Commodities 27% 17% Private equity/unlisted equities 16% Private equity/unlisted equities 17% SWEDEN FINLAND Hedge funds 22% 27% Hedge funds 10% 13% Real estate 66% 71% Real estate 58% 62% Commodities 37% 36% Commodities 31% 31% Private equity/unlisted equities 31% 32% Private equity/unlisted equities 22% Structured products 27% 32% Second half of 2015 First half of 2015 QUESTION How interesting do you assess the following types of alternative investments to be? RESPONSE OPTIONS Very interesting, rather interesting, neither/nor, not very interesting, not interesting at all, and do not know.

14 PAGE 14 INVESTOR COMPASS 2015 RISK: HISTORY Reduction in investors' appetite for risk The majority of Nordic investors state that they have an unchanged appetite for risk regarding their investments, compared to six months ago. However, when examining the data more closely it becomes apparent, that there was an increase in the amount of investors who indicated hav ing a preference for investments with lower risk. This is however balanced out by there also being a slight increase in the amount of investors who indicated hav ing a high tollerance of risk. Overall this means that the overall appetite for risk is reduced. HOW DO YOU ASSESS YOUR APPETITE FOR RISK AS AN INVESTOR TODAY, COMPARED TO SIX MONTHS AGO? NORWAY Lower appetite for risk today Unchanged appetite for risk Higher appetite for risk today Do not know SECOND HALF OF ,7% 51,7% 11,4% 8,2% FIRST HALF OF ,5% 66,0% 9,6% 8,9% DENMARK Lower appetite for risk today Unchanged appetite for risk Higher appetite for risk today Do not know SECOND HALF OF ,5% 65,2% 10,1% 6,2% FIRST HALF OF ,7% 65,9% 9,2% 12,2% QUESTION How do you assess your appetite for risk as an investor today compared to three months ago? RESPONSE OPTIONS Higher appetite for risk today, unchanged appetite for risk, lower appetite for risk today, and do not know.

15 PAGE 15 SWEDEN Lower appetite for risk today Unchanged appetite for risk Higher appetite for risk today Do not know 28,7% 53,7% 12,5% 5,1% SECOND HALF OF ,7% 63,7% 14,1% 3,5% FIRST HALF OF 2015 FINLAND Lower appetite for risk today Unchanged appetite for risk Higher appetite for risk today Do not know 33,7% 52,2% 7,1% 7,0% SECOND HALF OF ,1% 63,4% 12,7% 2,8% FIRST HALF OF 2015

16 US EUROPE BONDS CHINA STOCKS SELL JAPAN BUY Investor Compass Danske Invest, a div ision of Danske Bank A/S Parallelvej 17 DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby