# Lab 8: Introduction to WinBUGS

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1 Lab Lab 8: Introduction to WinBUGS Goals:. Introduce the concepts of Bayesian data analysis.. Learn the basic syntax of WinBUGS. 3. Learn the basics of using WinBUGS in a simple example. Next lab we will look at two case studies: () NMMAPS and () Hospital ranking data. PART I WinBUGS and Bayesian Analysis A. What is WinBUGS BUGS = Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling Not using Windows? Try OpenBUGS: JAGS: WinBUGS is a Bayesian analysis software that uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to fit statistical models. WinBUGS can be used in statistical problems as simple as estimating means and variances or as complicated as fitting multilevel models, measurement error models, and missing data models. WinBUGS fits fixed-effect and multilevel models using the Bayesian approach. Stata fits fixed effects and limited multilevel models using maximum likelihood or generalized least squares. Often results from WinBUGS and Stata are very similar. B. What is Bayesian Analysis Consider the following conditional probability statement: P( data θ ) P( θ ) P( θ data) =, P( data) where θ is the unobserved parameter that we want to learn about using the observed data. There are three important components: () P( data θ ): This represents the model part in a statistical analysis. It describes our assumptions that the observed data were generated based on the parameter θ. E.g. θ is the mean of a Normal distribution with variance. E.g. θ is the coefficients in a linear regression model where data here include both the response (Y) and covariates (X). () P(θ):

2 Lab This represents prior assumption of θ. It describes our prior belief of θ, typically using a distribution. E.g. Assume θ ~ Normal (0, 0) I θ>0, so θ is strictly positive. E.g. Assume θ ~ Normal (0, 0^5), a pretty non-informative prior. Choosing appropriate priors can be tricky and we will see many examples that are typically used in standard statistical analyses. (3) P ( θ data): This represents the posterior distribution of θ. It describes all the information on θ after combining prior knowledge on θ and what our data informed us about θ. Since P( θ data) is a probability distribution, statistical inference is made by examining the different characteristics of this distribution. E.g. the posterior mean, median or mode can be our estimate of θ. E.g. the variance and middle 95% of the posterior distribution can tell us about the uncertainty in our estimates. Therefore, Bayesian data analyses typically involve the following ingredients: () Specify a model that specifies the relation between the unknown parameters and the observed data. () Specify prior distributions for the unknown parameters. (3) Obtain the posterior distributions. (4) Make inference using the posterior distributions. C. Why Do Bayesian Analysis Here are some advantages of the Bayesian approach: All uncertainty in parameter estimation is included in the final inference. (E.g. Bayesian versus empirical Bayes estimates of random effects). Estimation (particularly the uncertainty) for any function of the parameters can be easily obtained by examining the corresponding posterior distribution. Prior information can be easily integrated. Does not rely on large-sample asymptotic theory. Here are some elements that make Bayesian analysis more complex: Need to specify prior distributions. Only in very simple models can P ( θ data) be derived explicitly. Solution: Monte Carlo sampling!!! Markov Chain Monte Carlo?

3 Lab Since we specify P( data θ ) and P(θ), the only element that prevents us from obtaining P( θ data ) is the marginal distribution P (data). However, P (data) is often difficult to evaluate, especially when the number of parameters is large. Note that P (data) does NOT depend on the parameter θ. Many methods have been developed to draw samples from P( θ data ) and WinBUGS does this for us automatically!!! Given samples from P( θ data ), we can calculate the desired statistics such as the mean or variance to make statistical inference. The precision of how our samples resemble the true posterior distribution is only limited by the number of draws we make. PART II WinBUGS in Action A. How to install WinBUGS () Download the.exe. file from: () Find the file WinBUGS4.exe where WinBUGS is installed. You may want to create a shortcut. (3) Follow the instructions in the patch file and install the patch in WinBUGS (4) Fill out a registration form to obtain a key through . (5) Update the key in WinBUGS. B. A Simple Demonstration: Inference for Two Normal Means. Data: two samples of size 0 from two independent Normal distributions with unknown variances. () Statistical model: Data: X = ( x, x,, x 0 ) and Y = ( y, y,, y 0 ) x i ~ Normal ( µ, σ ) i=,, K, 0 yi ~ Normal ( µ, σ ) i=,, K, 0 () Prior distributions: In our model, we have four unknowns so four prior distributions are needed. µ ~ Normal / σ ( 0, 00 ~ Gamma ( 0, 0 ) ) µ ~ Normal / σ ( 0, 00 ) ~ Gamma ( 0, 0 ) The Normal distributions for µ s are flat and cover a large range of values. 3

4 Lab We set the inverse of the variance to have a gamma prior distribution since gamma distribution only takes positive values. Gamma (0,.00) has extremely large standard deviation. We pick the above prior distributions such that they are non-informative in that the data will easily dominate the posterior distributions. A typical WinBUGS program include three sections: Model, Data, and Initial Values. Model: Translating our statistical model into a WinBUGS program: model{ for (i in :0){ x[i] ~ dnorm (mu[], prec[]) y[i] ~ dnorm (mu[], prec[]) } mu[] ~ dnorm (0, 00) mu[] ~ dnorm (0, 00) prec[] ~ dgamma (0, 0) prec[] ~ dgamma (0, 0) Model, P( θ data ) Priors, P( θ ) } s[] <- /prec[] s[] <- /prec[] Convert variances to precision model { } specifies the statistical model we are fitting. for (i in :0) { } is short-hand for writing the two statements in { } 0 times. The square brackets allow us to index a vector of values. They are equivalent to the subscripts in our previous model. WinBUGS uses precision as a parameter in specifying a Normal distribution instead of variance!!! o precision = /variance o dnorm (0, 00) is the same as a Normal distribution with mean 0 and variance /00 = 00. The last two lines tell WinBUGS to also keep track of the variances. Our data in WinBUGS format: list(x = c(6.6, 6.7, 5.07, 4.39, 5.68, 3.94, 5.83,.3, 3.60, 4.64,.79, 3., 3.46, 8.5, 5.49, 6.49,.65, 9.4, 5.3, 6.58), y = c(9.06, 7.00, 8.59, 8.70, 8.64, 8.03, 9.7, 6.0, 7.9, 6.0, 6.39, 9.0, 7.63, 6.75, 8.88, 8.44, 8.95, 5.66, 9.78, 8.09)) Often we also need to give initial values for out parameters: list( mu=c(0,0), prec=c(,)) 4

5 Lab Run the Analysis in WinBUGS A. Load model, data, and initial values:. Open a new document in WinBUGS and paste all three parts (model, data, initial values) on it.. Save the file as an.odc. 3. From the top panel: open Model Specification. A dialogue box will open. 4. Double-click (highlight) the word model in your file and click check model on the dialogue box. 5. Look at the bottom left-hand corner for model is syntactically correct. 6. Highlight the word list for the data section and click load data in the dialogue box. Look at the bottom left-hand corner for data loaded. 7. Click compile and look for model compiled. 8. Highlight the word list for the initial value section and click load inits in the dialogue. Look for model is initialized. 9. [Optional] If you did no initialize all parameters, click gen inits in the dialogue box. B. Run Sampler:. Open the Sample Monitor Tool window: Menu Inference Sample,. Type the parameters we are interested in the node box and click set. In this example we will track both mu and s. 3. Open the Update Tool window: Menu Model Update. 4. In the Update Too box, type in the number of posterior samples you want in the updates box. E.g Click Update and watch it runs in the iteration box! C. Posterior Inference:. In the Sample Monitor Tool select mu from the drop-down box in node.. Select the number of initial samples that we want to drop in the beg box. This is also known as burn-in. Let s choose 000 here. 3. Select the jth number of iteration you want to keep in the thin box. For example, if you pick 0, then only the every 0 th sample from the 000 th ~0000 th iterations will be used for posterior inference. Let s choose 0 here. Some Posterior Inference: History Show sampled value at each iteration. Look for chains that show no particular patter and low auto-correlation. 5

6 Lab mu[] iteration mu[] s[] iteration s[] iteration iteration Density: Plot the density estimates of the parameters mu[] sample: mu[] sample: s[] sample: s[] sample:

7 Lab Stats: Show statistics of the posterior distribution based on the samples. node mean sd MC error.5% median 97.5% start sample mu[] mu[] node mean sd MC error.5% median 97.5% start sample s[] s[] Parameter Truth Posterior 95% Posterior 95% Confidence MLE mean Interval Interval µ (4.3, 5.99) 5.05 (4.4, 5.96) µ (7.43, 8.50) 7.95 (7.38, 8.5) σ (.5, 8.39) 3.79 (.9, 8.08) σ.66 (0.84, 3.).48 (0.85, 3.5) The point estimates and 95% posterior interval for the means are very similar to the MLE estimates and its large sample 95% confidence interval. The point estimates for the variances are a bit different. Why? Some Additional Analyses Perhaps we are also interested in: ) The difference of the population means. ) The ratio of the two variance components. In standard non-bayesian analysis, the confidence intervals for theses estimates can be quite tricky. However, in a Bayesian analysis we simply add the following two lines in the model section of our WinBUGS code. mu.diff <- mu[] mu[] var.ratio <- s[]/s[] mu.diff sample: var.ratio sample: node mean sd MC error.5% median 97.5% start sample mu.diff node mean sd MC error.5% median 97.5% start sample var.ratio We conclude the difference between µ and µ is -.9 with a 95% posterior interval of ( ~ -.8) and the ratio between σ and σ has a posterior median of.55 (95% PI:.0~6.47). Therefore we found evidence that µ less then µ and σ is greater than σ. 7

8 Lab Stata has a package that allows you to run WinBUGS in Stata (link below). It still requires you to write WinBUGS program but you can analyze the posterior samples in Stata. R has similar libraries (BRugs and RWinBUGS) that call WinBUGS or OpenBUGS. JAGS is another MCMC software that you can call from R and is not based on BUGS. Run WinBUGS in Stata: 8

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