MALAWI: SOIL FERTILITY ISSUES AND OPTIONS

Transcription

1 MALAWI: SOIL FERTILITY ISSUES AND OPTIONS A discussion paper 1 May 1998 Some could, some could not, shake off misery, The Sinister Spirit sneered: It had to be! And again the Spirit of Pity whispered, Why? Thomas Hardy 1 This paper draws on detailed position papers prepared by Todd Benson, Anne Conroy, Rob Gilbert, George Kanyama-Phiri, John Kumwenda, Charles Mann, Spider Mughogho, and Alexander Phiri. Malcolm Blackie coordinated the effort and produced the initial draft precis. These were reviewed by the group and amended as agreed. Inputs from Stephen Carr, Andrew Dorward, Jonathan Kydd, and Ken Giller were used and are duly acknowledged in the text. Stephen Waddington was instrumental in developing the initial scenarios reported towards the end of Section II. Stephen Carr, Ken Giller, and Stephen Waddington commented on earlier versions of this paper. This document reflects the views of the primary authors who accept responsibility for errors of interpretation or fact. 1

2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...3 TECHNOLOGY...3 POLICY...5 IMPROVING ACCESS TO THE IMPROVED MAIZE SEED AND FERTILISER TECHNOLOGY...6 INCREASING THE ATTRACTIVENESS OF N-FIXING GRAIN LEGUMES...7 CLOSING COMMENTS...8 SECTION I: TECHNOLOGY...10 SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN MALAWI...10 SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS IN MALAWI...10 AGGREGATE DATA AND THE ILLUSION OF SUCCESS...11 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL LIBERALISATION...14 THE ECONOMICS OF MAIZE PRODUCTION, SUBSIDIES, AND INFLATION...14 AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY CHOICES: 1960S-1990S...15 TRENDS IN SOIL ORGANIC MATTER LEVELS...16 TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE...17 OVERVIEW...17 IMMEDIATE TECHNICAL CHOICES FOR CHANGE...18 LONGER TERM AND MORE DIFFICULT OPTIONS FOR IMPROVING SOIL FERTILITY...27 CONCLUSIONS...30 SECTION II: POLICY - BREAKING FREE...33 LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR GROWTH...33 A COMPREHENSIVE SMALLHOLDER STRATEGY...33 THE POLICY FRAMEWORK...33 THE FOOD SECURITY CRISIS...34 POLICY OPTIONS...35 SUSTAINABILITY, LIBERALISATION, AND SURVIVAL ARE THEY COMPATIBLE IN THE CONTEXT OF MALAWI SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE?...35 IMPROVING ACCESS TO THE IMPROVED MAIZE SEED AND FERTILISER TECHNOLOGY...38 BEST BET STARTER PACKS FOR ALL SMALLHOLDERS...38 COMPLEMENTARY OPEN MARKET SMALL INPUTS PACK PROGRAMME...40 FERTILISER FOR WORK...42 REVIEW...43 SECTION III: POLICY - BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY...46 INCREASING THE ATTRACTIVENESS OF N-FIXING GRAIN LEGUMES...46 MPTF VERIFICATION/DEMONSTRATION OF MAIZE/GRAIN LEGUME ROTATIONS:...46 IMPROVED SMALLHOLDER MARKETING SERVICES, ESPECIALLY FOR GRAIN LEGUMES:...47 CONCLUDING THOUGHTS...49 INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS...50 SUMMARY...51 BIBLIOGRAPHY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TECHNOLOGY Maize is a very efficient converter of carbon dioxide to carbohydrate and thus has a high yield potential. Maize is well suited to the climate of the high southern Africa plateau of Malawi, western Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. It has been a highly reliable crop and has suffered few catastrophic crop failures, and is not widely attacked by pests and diseases, especially birds (a major source of grain loss from other cereals in the field). Nevertheless, there is a strong indication of a decline in Malawian maize yields over the last 20 years. Despite a national maize surplus until the early 1980s and the highest per capita maize consumption in the world, household food security has declined, as indicated by widespread and pervasive malnutrition, and one of the highest levels of child mortality in the world. In the early 1980 s, Malawi was one of the showcases of economic growth in Africa, fueled by rapid growth in tobacco production by the estate sector and by the introduction of fertilised hybrid maize in the smallholder sector. The promising overall agricultural sector performance, with the growth rate in agricultural GDP averaging 4.7 percent annually over the decade, was primarily export growth in which smallholders played a minor role. Agricultural growth in Malawi requires widespread adoption by smallholders of improved production technologies, particularly for maize. The economic basis of improved maize seed and fertiliser technology has been undermined by the escalation in input prices and by the inability of the consumer to pay more for staple foods. Pricing grain at a level that makes fertiliser economically attractive to use at Malawian smallholder levels of productivity means that many consumers (who are likely to be smallholders as well as town dwellers) cannot afford to purchase it. If the majority of food-deficit smallholders have to pay the full undistorted cost of fertiliser as delivered to their farms, then fertiliser use on the staple food crop is simply not an option to a large majority of them. Under these same circumstances, they will find that they cannot afford to buy the food necessary to fill in the gap between their inadequate harvests. The end point is, at best, a steady decline in already unsatisfactory nutrition and living standards; at worst, the result is widespread starvation. The success of the germplasm-led Green Revolution in Asia, under very different conditions and with more fertile and uniform soils, has biased the research agenda in Africa away from crop nutrition studies towards tempting but illusory gains from plant breeding. These gains will remain illusory until the fundamental issues of providing the plant with adequate nutrients (soil fertility management) are properly addressed. The data are clear that poor soil fertility, dominated by nitrogen deficiency, is the major constraint to maize productivity in Malawi. There are effectively only three sources for supplying the key nutrient nitrogen in arable farming: organic sources recycled from within the cropped area or concentrated from a larger area, biological N-fixation, or mineral (inorganic) nitrogen fertilisers. 3

4 There are no quick fix solutions to maintenance of soil fertility. The conundrum is that all restorative technologies for the improvement of soil fertility involve either import of organic materials from surrounding land or the allocation of land to produce organic materials. In the most densely populated areas, land scarcity prohibits the devotion of land to the restoration of soil fertility. In such regions practical soil fertility interventions (as opposed to wishful thinking) will be hard to find, at least in the short term, without either: some additional source of income generation or short term assistance to buy inorganic fertilisers, direct assistance to compensate for loss of agricultural production, or, continuing food aid. For the remainder of this century and beyond, on present trends, population growth will exceed growth in food production by one percent or more annually. Maize seed and fertiliser technology is essential to the survival of most Malawians into the foreseeable future. Farmers still receive a good response if they apply inorganic-nitrogen. This is not wholly to discount organic strategies. Observations of farmer management practices lead most observers to conclude that organic matter contents in the soil are declining. Inputs of organic soil matter will reverse this trend. Nitrogen may also be added to the soil through the growing of an N-fixing legume in association with the maize crop. However, not all legumes fix significant amounts of nitrogen, and not all produce sufficient cash or calories to compensate for the maize which is displaced. Grain legumes potentially have the advantage of both adding nitrogen to the soil, and providing the farmer with an alternative food or cash crop to maize. Grain legume rotations have been shown to be successful under Malawian conditions, although the variability of performance is high (reducing their attractiveness to risk averse smallholders). The rotation of maize with grain legumes such as promiscuous soyabean, groundnut or Bambara groundnut is one of the more promising technological options available for Malawian farmers. Intercropping with pigeonpea is also attractive. There may be a decline in N-use efficiencies caused by nutrient losses that could be mitigated by increasing soil organic matter. But the evident and serious decline in unfertilised maize yields simply cannot be reversed by an organic strategy alone. The constraints to adoption, and the limitations in terms of crop response to feasible widespread exclusively organic options are simply too great. Without a reliable supply of adequate soil nutrients, preferably from a combination of modest amounts of inorganic nitrogen and organic sources of nutrients, both the food security of many farming households and of the nation as a whole will remain at considerable and increasing risk. Importantly, there is an immediate and short term soil fertility crisis which needs swift action. The technical options are few and each season that passes without concerted, coherent, and widespread action to address the critical issues narrows further the choices for change. The technology elements of a soil fertility strategy are: the widespread deployment of inorganic nitrogen fertiliser and improved maize seed, and, 4

5 increasing the grain legume component in maize based cropping systems through rotations or pigeonpea intercropping. POLICY Malawi needs urgently to implement a strategy for broad-based income growth to capitalise on the promise of the technology that Malawian farmers are desperate to implement. It is not enough to keep the poor alive - Malawi itself needs a safety net. The only realistic hope for Malawi to break out of its current downward spiral is to restart vigorous economic growth in a non-inflationary environment. The best way to do this is to get hybrid seed and fertiliser into the hands of all of Malawi s farmers. Nothing would help quell inflation and dispel the current state of gloom and insecurity like a bumper maize harvest shared by all of Malawi s farmers, and delivered to the consumers at lower and reasonably predictable maize prices. The liberalisation upon which Malawi s future growth depends is being tarnished in people s minds by the high prices they face in the market and the enormous rents conspicuously being extracted by private traders. The economy is experiencing all the downside effects of liberalisation, but is deprived of many of its benefits. Malawi s deteriorating food security situation threatens to undo completely the impressive progress made in laying the policy framework for growth. Despite real substantial technological promise in food production, events are spiraling downwards. The only realistic and practical way to reverse this spiral and simultaneously to restart economic growth is to use the promise of the best bet technology Malawi s scientists have established to jump-start maize production for all smallholders. This would simultaneously improve the food security of all food-deficit smallholder households, and sharply increase the marketed surplus available to urban consumers. Previous policy focused, quite logically, on intensifying maize production. The policy was undoubtedly popular with farmers. Under the circumstances pertaining, those that were able to adopt the necessary technologies did so. Those that were unable to do so universally expressed a desire for the key components of seed and fertiliser. But adoption came at the cost of major distortions to the economy, distortions which Malawi was unable to fund from its own resources. Once these distortions were removed and a largely liberalised economy established, the use of the improved maize seed and fertiliser technology was no longer financially viable for many smallholders. The outcome has been tragic. After the 1996/97 season, in spite of relatively good rains, marketed maize fell precipitously, the village level purchase price of maize quadrupled, and there was widespread hardship amongst the majority poor section of the population. It is evident that, in the peculiar circumstances of Malawi, the pursuance of a strict policy of non-intervention in the market comes at an unacceptably high cost. In the longer term, prices may rise to allow greater investment at the farm level and thus to increased productivity. Yet it is quite possible that many Malawians will not survive to benefit from these changes. This is not a stable or sustainable situation. The strategies required must primarily be concerned with the immediate survival of rural households, and especially children, while longer term policies are developed to meet the needs of Malawi into the next century. As with the technical options, the choices are few: 5

6 Subsidies: Subsidies on inputs and on credit are discredited. Even were the subsidy somehow limited only to fertiliser applied to maize, the only effect on production would come from the marginal increase in fertiliser purchases. While the shortage of cash with which to purchase inputs is a dominant constraint on their widespread use, credit schemes aimed at funding inputs for food crop production in Africa have almost universally failed. Malawi is developing a viable commercial credit system to support cash crop production; this initiative would be inevitably and seriously undermined by the introduction of a parallel credit system for food crops which accepted a higher level of default. Increasing smallholder access to credit, for most households, has only marginally beneficial effects on household annual income. Increasing cash crop production: Even at generous estimates of involvement in cash crop production, only some 20 percent of the farming population will be affected. Despite the real progress that has been made in recent years to promote cash cropping amongst smallholders, it will remain a minority occupation for the next decade at least. Many primarily subsistenceoriented producers justifiably remain unwilling to accept the risks involved in depending on the market for a significant part of their subsistence. Thus it seems unwise to rely solely on the cash generated by cash crops to produce the volume of maize necessary for national food security. Changing the food staple: Maize has become dominant in the high plateau of southern Africa, not because it has been promoted by the authorities at the expense of other choices, but because it is an excellent choice for the environment. Existing proposals to change the food staple (as opposed to adding some modest diversity to the farming system) are seriously compromised by technical flaws and misconceptions. Regardless of the staple food crop, continuous cropping without adding nutrients will lead to reduced soil fertility, declining yields, and increased food insecurity for Malawi. Improving the productivity of smallholder maize based cropping systems: The preceding technical review has shown that, in the immediate future, there are only two real options; increasing access to the improved maize seed and fertiliser technology, and, diversifying the cropping system through the adoption of grain legume rotations. These are complementary to one another and have the prospect of being widely adoptable. Improving access to the improved maize seed and fertiliser technology This strategy has several components: providing all smallholders with small starter packs of improved seed and fertiliser with which they can learn, on their own fields, how to use the new area-specific recommendations provided by the work of the MPTF, insuring that supplies of improved seed and fertiliser are available for purchase in all rural markets in small bags (1-3 kg) at a price which is comparable, per kilogram, to those of existing large bags, providing opportunities for able-bodied individuals to increase their purchasing power for seed and fertiliser through a structured fertiliser (and seed) for work programme, and, rebuilding an effective savings club movement tied to the purchase of agricultural inputs along the lines of that which has proved so successful in Zimbabwe. 6

7 Extending the reach of the improved maize seed and fertiliser technology is absolutely essential to establishing conditions for productive economic growth. Without securing the food supply, all other efforts at poverty alleviation - job creation, education reform, expanded health services - will come to naught. This is not a programme for recovering from drought. It is a programme to lay a solid foundation for long-term growth. All smallholder farmers need the chance to have in their own hands the new technology packages long enough for real learning and experimentation to take place, and to develop confidence in the package over different weather and market conditions. The most feasible growth strategy for Malawi is one that centers on increasing the productivity of the smallholder, especially in maize production. The starter pack programme proposed here could put an extra bag of maize in every smallholder household. Combine that with the other three initiatives and the return could quickly be affordable maize prices to the urban poor and middle classes. The strategy as a whole could help stem the tide of inflation and stagnation. It could help win support for liberalisation and stimulate the private sector, both directly through increased demand for inputs and indirectly by reducing wage pressures. Given the resources, such a programme can be done quickly and on a large enough scale to change the national mood of despair over the deteriorating food situation. Increasing the attractiveness of N-fixing grain legumes There are disturbing signs of an unsustainable smallholder farming system as soils erode, the diversity of the farming system declines, and household diets become reliant on an inadequate supply of a single calorie rich crop. Maize/grain legume rotations (groundnuts and promiscuous soyabean) and, where livestock do not graze extensively after the maize harvest (as in the south of the country), maize/pigeonpea intercropping are the only other promising technologies that: look to be at a stage suitable for large scale adoptions, and, are competitive with unfertilised local maize in terms of calories and cash, and, start to address, in part, the genuine concerns regarding sustainability, soil erosion, and soil degradation that form an important component of discussions on Malawi smallholder agriculture. The MPTF has shown that, with good leadership and organisation, it is possible swiftly to develop area-specific recommendations for smallholder fertility management technologies. The achievement in producing area-specific fertiliser recommendations efficiently and with the use of existing resources is considerable. This experience should be built upon and expanded for grain legume technologies. Required also is a policy environment which is conducive to the adoption of improved technologies. Farmers need reliable markets in which to buy inputs and other goods and to sell their produce, such as these promising grain legumes. These markets need to operate efficiently and consistently. Innovation is needed to create an appropriate market infrastructure and to bring into the market a greater proportion of those farmers currently excluded from it. This is more than simply liberalising markets. The low purchasing power 7

8 of most Malawi smallholders, combined with the overall poverty of the country, means that more must and can be done to improve marketing services. Marketing cooperatives, as opposed to producer cooperatives, have worked well, and proved popular and successful with farmers, in a wide range of agricultural economies. In the developed world, they have become major businesses in their own right. Cooperatives provide the chance for smallholders to sell and buy in bulk and thus have greater market power. In Malawi, VEZA International, an NGO, has been active in setting up farmer cooperatives with very poor smallholders and there is growing interest in this approach. Several other NGOs have recently agreed to adopt the VEZA model and to extend the cooperative marketing option to a wider area. There is already a substantial trade in legumes - ICRISAT report some 30,000 tons of pigeonpea are exported annually. This trade offers real potential for development. Cooperatives also allow the introduction of innovations such as forward contracting - which provides a pre-planting guarantee of price. They can act as an intermediary in the credit system since they are legal entities with collateral. Both the risks and the rewards of marketing are spread, which provides a more benevolent environment through which smallholders can make the transition from subsistence to commercial production. CLOSING COMMENTS Particular attention needs to be paid to the agricultural production problems of the poorest farmers. Their numbers may be substantial (as high as 40 percent of the smallholder population in Malawi) and it certainly is a group that is growing. These are typically farmers who do not reliably feed themselves and their families year on year. Thus their highest priority will be to secure their family's food supply. A food crop productivity strategy will be the starting point, but not the total answer. The poverty trap faced by the poorest families precludes their active participation, under present circumstances, in a market economy (except as distress sellers of labour and, sometimes, food). Cash crops can play an important role in priming the soil fertility input pump, by bringing extra income to the farmer. But, in Malawi, most smallholders are desperately short of cash, cannot afford the luxury of experimentation, and often lack the confidence and the ability to deal, unaided, with many aspects of modern, market-centered society. It is unrealistic to expect sophisticated and possibly risky cash cropping to provide them with the first step to a better life. Credit is often proposed as a solution, but credit is only of value to individuals who are periodically short of cash to purchase inputs. For those farmers who are chronically short of cash, other alternatives will need to be sought. Savings rather than credit, therefore, provide the mechanism for introducing cash poor smallholders to improved technologies. The successful implementation of the technology development and transfer processes outlined in this paper will require commitment of substantial resources over extended periods. The agricultural technology development and dissemination system in Malawi is not well adapted to comprehending and responding to the long term problems of the country. Field level personnel, particularly the Field Assistants, bear the burden of successfully implementing any new agricultural extension initiatives with few additional resources. Institutional memories are poor, inadequate budgets (and the poor use of the funds that are available) lead to short lived, disparate project-orientated research and extension efforts which rarely are able to "follow through" to the farmer. 8

9 The donors, likewise, exhibit a frightening lack of consistency and long term institutional memory. Given that so much of what actually happens in Malawi is the result of donor pressure and priorities, the absence of consensus and a long term strategy amongst the donor community is as much a problem as is the much vaunted lack of commitment amongst nationals. It is imperative that the donor community engage with the public and private sectors of Malawi in a concerted effort to prevent an imminent food crisis in the country. We request immediate support for the following activities: best-bet technology starter packs for all smallholders. ensuring the availability of small (1 to 3 kg) bags of improved seed and fertilizer for purchase by smallholders. a structured fertilizer-for-work programme. the establishment of rural savings clubs. Maize Productivity Task Force efforts to demonstrate and multiply grain legumes. the development of marketing cooperatives, with a particular focus on building market demand for grain legumes. We believe that support of these activities, which are outlined in this document, will greatly improve the fertility of Malawi s arable land and the food security of Malawi s smallholder farmers who take their subsistence from that land. 9

10 SECTION I: TECHNOLOGY SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN MALAWI Malawi smallholder agriculture is based on maize as the dominant cereal, with small grains and cassava adding diversity. In the wetter parts of the country, the cereal crop is interplanted with common bean (Phaseolus) - in the drier, pigeonpea. Groundnuts are typically rotated with maize (and have been an important cash crop). The reasons for the preference for maize are not difficult to find. Maize is a very efficient converter of carbon dioxide to carbohydrate and thus has a high yield potential. Maize is well suited to the climate of the high southern Africa plateau of Malawi, western Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Relative to other crops, the labour demands of producing and processing maize are lower. It has been a highly reliable crop and has suffered few catastrophic crop failures, and is not widely attacked by pests and diseases, especially birds (a major source of grain loss for sorghum and millets in the field). SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS IN MALAWI The poverty of most smallholder farming households in Malawi on smaller and smaller landholdings prevents most from adequately investing in the fertility of the soils they crop to safeguard its future productivity. Yields decline and food security through subsistence production is less and less often assured for increasing numbers of households. Figure 1 presents data from available on-farm nutrient response trials in Malawi from 1972 to the present time. 2 The data suggest a continuing decline in unfertilised maize yields over time. Excluding the 1960 data (which were based on local maize and observation of farmer yields) the trend is downwards. This trend may be somewhat less dramatic than shown here because the unfertilised maize yields of the 1970s seem unusually high. Nevertheless, there is a strong indication of a decline in maize yields over the last 20 years. Unlike some neighbouring countries such as Zimbabwe, these declines are associated with a deteriorating resource base rather than the result of expansion into drier zones. This diminution has occurred due to declining soil fertility. This despite the fact that the yield potential of the improved maize germplasm used in these trials over this period has risen. Potential yield gains from plant breeding will be largely illusory until the soil fertility decline in smallholder cropping systems is addressed. Other data support this hypothesis. Maize has become increasingly dominant in the farming system as farm households seek to maintain their calorie production under declining soil fertility and land holdings. The crop now occupies around 85 percent of smallholder cropland. Rotation crops and intercrops have declined in importance, or, in many cases, disappeared. Despite a national maize surplus until the early 1980s, household food security declined, as indicated by widespread and pervasive malnutrition, and one of the highest levels of child mortality in the world. 2 The data come from a range of sources within Malawi and are not fully consistent in terms of fertiliser source, maize variety, trial design or objectives. Some trials were not replicated, and the data are not disaggregated according to agroecological zone, or by rainfall season (although a preliminary analysis did not show obvious differences between good and bad years). No results were available for the 1980s. 10

11 Figure 1: Mean maize yields at 0 kg N/ha from nutrient response research trials in Malawi, by year This data on maize yield when no nitrogen is applied to the crop is taken from on-farm trials, most of which were researcher-managed. The gaps in the record represent years in which no or very few on-farm nutrient response research trials were implemented. Farmer's unfertilized maize yields would be significantly lower. Maize yield (kg/ha) ca /72 72/73 73/74 74/75 76/77 77/78 78/79 92/93 95/96 Season Aggregate data and the illusion of success In the early 1980 s, Malawi was one of the showcases of economic growth in Africa, fueled by rapid growth in tobacco production by the estate sector and by the introduction of fertilised hybrid maize in the smallholder sector. However, the promising overall agricultural sector performance of the previous years, with the growth rate in agricultural GDP averaging 4.7 percent annually over the decade, was primarily export growth in which smallholders played a minor role (see Figure 2 and Table 1). Figure 2: Percentage growth in agricultural GDP in Malawi Estates Smallholders Total Agriculture Source: World Bank,

12 Table 1: Malawi smallholder maize production statistics, 1984/ /92. Maize area ('000 ha) Yields ('000 kg/ha) Season Local Hybrid Local Hybrid 84/ / / / / / / / Fertiliser nitrogen Output and sales ('000MT) supplied ('000 MT) Output Sales Total supplied Paid for 84/ / / / / / / / Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development; Whiteside and Carr, 1997 Exporting maize to its neighbours, Malawi built the state-of-the-art maize silo complex at Kanengo to store the accumulating maize surpluses. When the costs of carrying these large stocks brought ADMARC to the brink of financial collapse, Government took them over as the Strategic Grain Reserve. The critical food policy problem then was how to prevent the maize price from collapsing under an avalanche of hybrid maize. No one then was imagining the conditions experienced in early 1998: ADMARC markets without maize; people queuing overnight to buy food; the widespread theft of maize cobs from farmers fields; and a household s accustomed monthly maize consumption costing the equivalent of 40 days wages. From Table 1, it is evident that, in the smallholder sector, neither improved nor unimproved maize showed any clear increase in yields per hectare in the period from Figure 3 shows that that the smaller the holding size the greater the proportion of land planted to maize and other food crops. There are two main reasons for this phenomenon: High priority is given by each household to securing its food consumption requirements, largely calories through maize, before venturing to produce other commodities. Smallholders were excluded from the production of lucrative cash crops (primarily burley tobacco). In 1986, courageous researchers presented to a reluctant Government compelling evidence that outside the well-stocked ADMARC markets, tens of thousands of Malawian households were too poor to buy this maize. In the face of the national surpluses, chronic malnutrition afflicted nearly half of Malawian children. Three other crises exacerbated the situation. The cassava mealy bug decimated the staple crop of Malawi s northern lakeshore population; 3 Subsequent years data suggest that unimproved maize yields were trending downwards towards around 800 kg/ha, with improved maize yields to around 2500 kg/ha. The very low figures for 1991/2 are the result of a particularly bad drought in that season. The area planted to new hybrid seed has been declining since 1992/3. 12

13 Figure 3: Cropping pattern in Malawi, by size of household farm holding Percent of area planted Maize Other food Tobacco Cotton Source: World Bank, < Farm size group (ha) drought ravaged the Shire Valley; and Malawi became a safe haven for large numbers of Mozambicans fleeing a devastating civil war. Initially, draw-downs from the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) masked the seriousness of the mounting food crisis. Viewed initially as a temporary measure to offset a transient food shortage, Government requested the donor community to provide food aid. However, as the intensity of the war in Mozambique increased, the refugees became a flood, numbering eventually over a million: equivalent to about 12 percent of Malawi s total population. They swelled the demand for food, shelter, firewood, water, and health care. With high praise for the hospitality and refuge provided by Malawi, the donor community effectively mobilised large quantities of food aid, but in the meantime, relief purchases from the SGR had exhausted Malawi s own national reserves. Long accustomed to finding maize in ADMARC markets in the hunger season, in the early 1990s Malawians suddenly found themselves queuing for rationed supplies. The free market price of maize in the seasons following 1996 soared to quadruple the ADMARC price. With maize weighted heavily in the consumer price index, inflationary pressures mounted. This set the stage for the long and continuing slide in the value of the Malawi kwacha and made more difficult and painful the opening of the economy to market forces. 13

14 Economic and political liberalisation The Malawi Government has long recognised throughout that economic growth is essential to the nation s future - which explicitly requires making efficient use of the country s scarce resources, particularly through open and liberalised markets. More recently it has also moved to a more conventionally democratic political system. One casualty of this political restructuring has been the farmer credit clubs that delivered subsidised seed and fertiliser to the larger smallholders. Closely integrated into the structure of the previous ruling party, this credit system has not survived its demise. The impressive repayment record that sustained the clubs rested heavily on the coercive power of the party to enforce repayment. The debt repayment relief granted in the great drought of further undermined repayment incentives. The post-drought credit expansion that boosted fertilised hybrid maize to new records also brought in new and less credit-worthy borrowers. What was intended to be an expanded credit programme in reality became a large free inputs programme for the final round of credit recipients. Figure 4 illustrates the growth in the use of fertiliser that was not paid for as the fertiliser subsidies were withdrawn. While Government and donors seek to implement a sustainable credit system, rebuilding credit for maize production will be a long and slow process. The economics of maize production, subsidies, and inflation Even when the improved maize seed and fertiliser technology was widely used in the late 1980s and early 1990s, per hectare yields of smallholder maize remained well below attainable levels. Widespread poverty and chronic lack of cash explain this phenomenon. Only 33 percent of the rural population have surplus maize to sell - part of which is transferred to food-deficit rural households, the poorest of whom pay for maize by selling their labour (known locally as ganyu labour). Most maize producing households therefore rely on the market (as ganyu or for cash) for an important part of their consumption. Since Figure 4: Nutrients used by smallholders on maize in Malawi: 1987/ / Nutrients paid for Nutrients given free Metric tons /88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 Year Source: Whiteside and Carr,

15 Table 2: Smallholder nitrogen fertiliser subsidies in Malawi, 1991/ /95 Percentage subsidy on final price. Fertiliser 1991/2 1992/3 1993/4 1994/5 CAN :21:0+4S Urea Source: Malawi Government (1993) their income levels are so small, purchases of food leave little to spare for other things - housing, education, or farm inputs. Even with the subsidies provided (see Table 2) and an overvalued currency, fertiliser use was uneconomic for many households (Conroy, 1993, and Kumwenda et al, 1995). Essential to the economic restructuring needed to support a more dynamic growth process is a realistic valuation of the kwacha to stimulate exports and reflect the true cost of imports. Failure to restrain inflation has brought the value of the kwacha from its pre-election level of about MK 4.00 to the US dollar to the current level of around MK 25. While there is much farmer and political talk about the phase-out of seed and fertiliser subsidies,, this was a relatively minor event relative to the impact of devaluation. The devaluation caused a four-fold increase in fertiliser prices, whereas the subsidy at its highest never accounted for more than 20 percent of the fertiliser cost. Retaining the subsidy would only increase the incomes of those already able to pay cash for fertiliser. It would not substantially expand fertiliser use within the smallholder sector. Agricultural technology choices: 1960s-1990s Separate studies carried out by national analysts, donors, and international research agencies came to common conclusions. Agricultural change in Malawi required widespread adoption of improved resource efficient production technologies, particularly for maize. With respect to maize, the initial diagnosis focused mainly on deficiencies in the maize germplasm available - partly because there was more national and international expertise in crop breeding, and partly because of a reluctance to recognise the implications of a more comprehensive review of smallholder development needs. The improved maize varieties available in the 1970s and 1980s did not suit the circumstances of the majority of smallholders. The grain type was too soft for household processing and allowed the harvest to become quickly infested with weevils. With donor support, and technical input from CIMMYT, two improved maize hybrids (MH17 and MH18) were released to the farming community in These hybrids had a semi-flint grain with good storage and household processing characteristics. Their yield was as good as other locally available hybrids, although their advantages were quickly lost if the farmer recycled the seed. In the mid-1990s a wider range of maize varieties became available as the maize seed market was opened up. But, as shown earlier, aggregate maize yields showed no upward trend. 15

16 Promotion of the associated fertiliser technology over most of this period was unhelpful. Farmers know that the yield response to fertiliser is broadly linear, additive, and closely related to soil type and to available soil moisture, as well as a range of other exogenous factors such as weeds, or previous farming practice. National fertiliser policy ignored these facts, although it was the subject of numerous discussions, workshops, and agronomic research 4. It was not until 1995 that Kumwenda et al (1995), through a comprehensive analysis of on-farm fertiliser response rates, confirmed that the blanket recommended level of fertiliser use was too high to be sufficiently profitable for widespread adoption. By 1995, the subsidies to fertiliser and credit for smallholders that had apparently facilitated the adoption of hybrids and fertiliser in the early 1990s had been eliminated. Unsurprisingly, the upward trend in the use of the improved maize seed and fertiliser technology disappeared. The economic basis of the maize seed and fertiliser technology was undermined by the escalation in input prices and by the inability of consumers to pay more for staple foods. Pricing grain at a level that makes fertiliser economically attractive to use at Malawian smallholder levels of productivity means that many consumers (who are likely to be the 80 percent of smallholders who are routinely food deficit, as well as town dwellers) cannot afford to purchase it. If the majority of food-deficit smallholders have to pay the full undistorted cost of fertiliser as delivered to their farms, then fertiliser use on the staple food crop is simply not an option to a large majority of them (Carr, 1996). Under these same circumstances, they will find that they cannot afford to buy the food necessary to fill in the gap between their inadequate harvests. The end point is, at best, a steady decline in already unsatisfactory nutrition and living standards, and, at worst, widespread starvation. Trends in Soil Organic Matter levels Much of the debate regarding the importance of organic fertility sources (particularly longer term interventions) revolves around the need to build up and maintain soil organic matter (SOM) in the soil, since declining SOM typically results in soils with lower nutrient holding capacities and lower levels of available plant nutrients. The difficulties of achieving this objective in the tropics are well presented in Giller et al, Their conclusion is clear - long term fallowing, whether natural or planted, is the only way to enhance the SOM capital store of the critical nutrient nitrogen. Only repeated additions of high quality organic residues and/or inorganic fertilisers will produce an adequate yield response on a field scale. There is much anecdotal evidence that SOM levels have declined in Malawi. The data are equivocal. Benson (1998) reviewed data sets of Organic Carbon analyses of soil samples collected under two separate programmes 5. The first came from the Mass Soil Analysis programme carried out by the Soil Fertility Unit at Chitedze in the 1970s, with most of the data from The second source was the nation-wide soil sampling exercise carried out in the early 1990s by the extension staff in each ADD on behalf of the Soils Commodity Team. Comparable data sets from both programmes could only be compiled for Blantyre, Kasungu, and Lilongwe ADDs. In both cases, samples were collected from the top 15 cm of the soil profile. 4 There was some evidence (although subject to considerable controversy) that, on the most fertile soils, the use of improved maize seed, without applying fertiliser, was sufficiently attractive for adoption by smallholders. 5 There is a direct relationship between the Organic Carbon content of the soil and the Soil Organic Matter (SOM) content the percent SOM is typically calculated as being 1.75 times the percent Organic Carbon content of the soil. 16

17 Table 3: Organic Carbon data for three ADDs in Malawi BLADD KADD LADD data set: 1970s 1990s 1970s 1990s 1970s 1990s Mean Organic Carbon (%) number of samples significance of t-test comparing differences of means samples (%) characterised as sandy (S or LS) samples (%) characterised as loamy (SCL or SL) <0.001 < Although it needs to be interpreted with caution, Table 3 does provide some evidence for a decline in SOM: 6 Only in Blantyre ADD is there not a statistically significant difference in the mean Organic Carbon values for the two data sets. 7 Considering the soil texture characteristics of the two sets, the later data set has a higher proportion of loamy samples. On the basis of texture alone, one would expect the 1990s samples to have a higher Organic Carbon content. The opposite is the case, indicating that the decline in Organic Carbon levels may be somewhat greater than is indicated. However, although the trend is cause for concern, the mean Organic Carbon values are not extremely low yet. The Soils Team at Chitedze uses a critical value for Organic Carbon of 0.90 percent to define a sample with low organic matter. The means from both periods are well above this level. The Organic Carbon values for 10 percent of the samples examined from the 1970s and 20 percent from the 1990s are below this critical value. TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE 8 Overview The evidence is clear that varietal maize improvement has had a transitory impact on smallholder farming in Malawi unless farmers address widespread declines in soil fertility. Without such technology, the productivity of smallholder maize-based farming systems in Malawi will fail to improve. Further evidence for this position (using examples from elsewhere in southern Africa) is reported in Kumwenda et al, (1995) 6 Bias in the collection of samples cannot be ruled out. It is quite conceivable that soils were collected, particularly in the 1970s, from progressive farmers those who have considerable contact with the extension service and who likely manage their soils well. Moreover, laboratory analysis procedures may have differed between the two data sets. 7 This spatial pattern is reasonable if one considers that demographic pressures in BLADD were such that already in the 1970s rotations, long-term fallows, and other SOM maintenance strategies were becoming difficult to practice. Hence, declines of SOM in BLADD are not as pronounced. It has only been in the past two decades that these pressures have especially been felt in the other two ADDs, with a resultant loss of SOM. 8 See Buresh R., Sanchez P., and Calhoun, F., eds. (1997) Replenishing soil fertility in Africa, Madison: Soil Science Society of America for an accessible, detailed and comprehensive review of the choices. Chapter 7 by Giller et al, Building soil nitrogen capital is especially pertinent. 17

18 Immediate technical choices for change The success of the germplasm led Green Revolution in Asia, under very different conditions and with more fertile and uniform soils, has biased the research agenda in Africa away from crop nutrition studies towards tempting but illusory gains from plant breeding. These gains will remain illusory until the fundamental issues of providing the plant with adequate nutrients (soil fertility management) are properly addressed. There are effectively only three sources for supplying the key nutrient nitrogen in arable farming: organic sources recycled from within the cropped area or concentrated from a larger area, biological N-fixation, or, mineral (inorganic) nitrogen fertilisers. Giller et al, 1997, in a comprehensive review of the options for building soil nitrogen capital in African soils, discuss the potential for the restoration of soil nitrogen capital in relation to potential sources of nitrogen, management methods, and the ability of soils to store and supply nitrogen for crop growth: The most striking conclusion is inevitably that there are no quick-fix solutions to maintenance of all forms of N capital, or SOM [soil organic matter]. Any proposed interventions must generate cropping systems that are productive, sustainable, and economically attractive for smallholder subsistence farmers. The conundrum is that all restorative technologies for improvement of soil fertility without the use of mineral fertilisers involve either import of organic materials from surrounding land or allocation of land to produce organic materials. In the most densely populated areas, land scarcity prohibits the devotion of land to restoration of soil fertility. In such regions methods for replenishment of the short-term capital N store in soils will be hard to find without either some other form of income generation or shortterm assistance to buy fertilisers or direct assistance to compensate for loss of agricultural production, at least in the short term (p.153). Inorganic fertiliser For most households in Malawi, the cash requirement needed to buy inorganic fertiliser far exceeds their total annual cash income (HIID, 1994a). Fertiliser will remain a high cost item for Malawi farmers for the foreseeable future even if more efficient delivery methods are found. As noted earlier, it is not profitable to use on maize in Malawi in many instances. In Malawi, value:cost ratios in 1995 averaged just 1.8 for fertiliser use on hybrid maize and 1.3 for unimproved maize (Conroy and Kumwenda, 1995). A recent economic analysis of fertiliser policy in Malawi (see HIID, 1994a) suggested that improvements in fertiliser use efficiency could substantially outweigh feasible price changes in either fertiliser or maize in making fertiliser economically attractive to smallholders. Nitrogen is the most important limiting nutrient for maize production in Malawi. Table 4 presents the analysis from available on-farm nutrient response trials in Malawi over the last 30 years. The N- 18

19 Table 4: Average N-use efficiency and unfertilised maize yields from nutrient response trials in Malawi, by year. Average N-use efficiency (kg maize per kg N)* Average unfertilised maize yield (kg/ha) number of Source Year trials Brown & Young ca unknown Bennett 1971/ Bennett 1972/ Bennett 1973/ Maize Team 1974/ Maize Team 1976/ Maize Team 1977/ Maize Team 1978/ FAO fertiliser trials 1992/ Fertiliser Verification Trial 1995/ * These N-use efficiencies were calculated using the lowest rate of nitrogen applied in each trial programme - between 35 and 60 kg N/ha -and represent efficiencies under on-farm trial conditions, rather than responses farmers should expect. N- use efficiencies are generally highest at the lowest rates of application. N-use efficiencies on farmers fields, under farmer management, and using higher rates of nitrogen will be lower. The yields from the 1995/96 Fertiliser Verification Trial, adjusted downwards to reflect potential on-farm yields and over all levels of N-application (ranging from 35 to 96 kg N/ha), gave a national mean N-use efficiency of 18.7 kg grain/kg N-applied. use efficiency data are equivocal. There may be a decline over the period but this is contradicted by the most recent and comprehensive data set - the fertiliser verification trial 9. This last trial shows (over the full range of agro-ecologies in Malawi) N-use efficiency estimates remain within the expected range and that good physical returns from fertiliser use can be expected. The trial was implemented to a generally high standard by Ministry of Agriculture field staff on farmers fields. Addressing micronutrient deficiencies can make some extra gains but virtually all maize in Malawi will respond well to nitrogen. Also, the chance of a low response to nitrogen due to drought is much lower than in some neighbouring countries. Overall, there is a good grain return to applied nitrogen. Fertiliser composition: Although nitrogen is the dominant limiting nutrient, N-use efficiency is affected by the availability of other nutrients, particularly phosphorus (P) and sulphur (S). The introduction of high analysis fertilisers after 1990 (which do not include sulphur) may be exacerbating sulphur deficiencies. Sulphur deficiency in maize has been reported by Lungu (1974), MacColl (1984), and Matabwa and Wendt (1993). The maize fertiliser verification trials, conducted at some 2000 sites, (Benson, Kumwenda, and Gilbert, 1997) have shown that the application of the new compound basal fertiliser 23:21:0+4S, which supplied sulphur at 4 kg ha -1 gave mean yield increases of between 4-13 percent over DAP and urea. The response of maize to additional phosphorus is only economically significant in some areas of the country (Matabwa and Wendt, 1993). Benson (1997) cites studies reporting deficiencies of boron, zinc, molybdenum, copper, magnesium and manganese in addition to sulphur (Brown, 9 In the 1995/96 season, 2000 maize fertiliser verification trials were conducted on-farm to develop area specific fertiliser recommendations for smallholders under the aegis of the Maize Productivity Task Force. 19

20 1962; Bolton and Bennett, 1975; Silanpaa; 1982; Matabwa and Wendt, 1993). Such deficiencies are probably locally significant. Timing of fertiliser application: Malawi data show that splitting nitrogen fertiliser application in Malawi is most effective on the lighter soils (Ngwira and Nhlane, 1986; Saka and Chisenga, 1990). Many smallholders delay applying the basal fertiliser until some weeks after planting 10. This has serious effects on fertiliser use efficiency (Ngwira and Nhlane, 1986; Kabambe and Kumwenda, 1995; Kumwenda, 1994). Research conducted on farmer s fields by Kabambe and Kumwenda (1995) showed a reduction in maize yield of 700 to 1500 kg ha -1 when the basal dressing fertiliser containing nitrogen and phosphorus was applied 2 weeks after planting. Preliminary data from 157 on-farm trials by Sakala (1998) in the 1994/95 season indicate that farmers can lose from 1000 to 1500 kg ha -1 of the maize grain by delaying the basal dressing fertiliser by 4 weeks after planting. Weeding: The interaction between crop yield and weed management is high. Weeds compete with crops for soil nutrients, soil water and light, reducing maize yields by more than 50 percent (Kumwenda, and Kabambe, 1995). Many smallholders in southern Africa use animal draft power to control weeds - but few Malawi farmers own cattle 11. Thus most weeding is done by hand - a hard and time consuming operation where timing is critical to success. Weeding twice, but at the appropriate times, will give as high a yield of maize on half the fertiliser, than weeding once and using the full recommendation (see Figure 5 and Table 5) (Kabambe and Kumwenda, 1995). Grain legume rotations The rotation of maize with grain legumes such as soyabean, groundnut or Bambara groundnut is one of the more promising technological options to improve soil fertility for Malawian farmers. Brown (1958) compared several rotations involving maize and groundnuts at Chitedze, Thuchila and Mbawa. Maize yields following groundnuts were 8 to 78 percent higher than continuous maize. Groundnut yields after maize were 18 to 156 percent higher than continuous groundnut yields. MacColl (1988) examined residual nitrogen left for maize following legume crops of groundnuts, soyabean, lab-lab and pigeonpea near Bunda in central Malawi. The nitrogen left for the maize varied from 0 to 52 kg N ha -1 depending on previous species, soil type and precipitation. MacColl found that a higher nitrogen harvest index in the legume led to a decreasing soil fertility benefit for the subsequent maize. This is now translated into a general rule that the less high yield potential (low harvest index) legumes are the ones with the greater benefit in terms of soil fertility. 10 If only modest amounts of fertiliser are used, then the best response is obtained if it is applied just after maize emergence. 11 The expansion of cropping into the grazing area is a major factor in the decline of livestock holdings in Malawi. 20