Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa. Beschäftigungsordnungen europäischer Länder in der Finanzmarkt- und Staatsschuldenkrise

Transcription

1 Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa. Beschäftigungsordnungen europäischer Länder in der Finanzmarkt- und Staatsschuldenkrise Martin Heidenreich, März 2013 Die Krise des Euro und die Zukunft Europas 6. Tag der ökonomischen Bildung, Oldenburg

2 Theses 1. The current employment crisis in Southern and Eastern Europe is the result of an inadequate architecture of the EMU 2. Its impact on young and low-skilled employees, migrants and unemployed is the result of segmented labour market regimes characterised by huge divisions between insiders and outsiders 3. This segmentation could be reduced by active labour market policies and social services which however practically do not exist in the Southern and Eastern European countries 4. The labour market exclusion of younger, female, unemployed and low-skilled Europeans risks to undermine the legitimacy of the European integration project

3 Table of Contents 1. Unemployment and labour market segmentation in the current crisis 2. The role of active labour market policies and social services 3. Conclusion

4 1. Unemployment and labour market segmentation in the current economic crisis Increasing unemployment rates (2013/3: 11.9 %). Decreasing employment rates (70.3 % in 2008 to 68.6% in 2011) Significant and increasing national and regional disparities (Austria: 4.9 %, Germany 5.3 % vs. Spain: 26.2 %, Greece: 27 %) and Portugal (17.6 %); January High unemployment of young people, migrants and low-skilled => Segmented labour markets High and increasing share of long-term unemployed (2009Q1: 31 %; 2012Q3: 45 %) => Social exclusion

5 Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa 26, 2 Millionen Arbeitslose (11,9 %) in EU 27 (1/2013). Kontinuierlicher Anstieg seit Ende 2007 (7 %), während die Alo in den USA seit 2009 wieder sinkt

6 Arbeitslosigkeit in der EU Erhebliche Unterschiede zwischen Nord- und Südeuropa: Österreich (4,9 %) und Deutschland (5,3 %) einerseits und Griechenland (27 %), Spanien (26,2 %) und Portugal (17,6 %) andererseits.

7 Unemployment rates of nationals and foreigners 25 % 20 % Extra EU-27 Other EU27-countries Home country national 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 %

8 Unemployment rates in the EU-27 by education 18 % 16 % 14 % Low education Medium education High education 12 % 10 % 8 % 6 % 4 % 2 % 0 % 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1

9 Youth unemployment rates in the EU-27: Twice as high as the rate for the total population At 22.1 %, more than one out of every five young persons in the labour force was not employed. In Spain, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Slovakia, Ireland, and Portugal youth unemployment rates were higher than 30 % (2011)

10 Long-term unemployment (LTU) in selected EUcountries (in % of total unemployment; ) The incidence of LTU varies from 20 % (Sweden) to 70 % (Slovakia) Strong increase of LTU from 1/2009 (31.3 %) to 3/2012 (44.7 %) especially in Greece, Spain, Ireland and the Baltic countries 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % Italy Germany EU27 Spain France Poland UK Sweden

11 Different patterns of long-term unemployment rates in the EU (2011) Huge differences between universalist (UK, Sw, FI, DK ) and Bismarckian countries (BE, DE, FR, IT )

12 Increasing matching problems on the labour market since 2010 the EU Beveridge Curve ( ) Labour shortage indicator 08q2 EU-27 09q2 11q2 Unemployment rate 0 6,5 7,5 8,5 9,5 10,5 11,5 The long-term component of unemployment is raising in almost all Member States. This may be due to a skills mismatch provoked by the crisis since sectors recovering quicker are not the ones that shed most jobs at the onset of the crisis, probably reflecting a shift in skills and sectoral needs in the last three years. Source: EMCO/28/130911/EN- rev3. Reaching the Employment Target: Progress and Thematic Surveillance 10q2 12q2

13 High persistence in unemployment in Southern and Eastern Europe the share of the short-term unemployed remaining in unemployment has been the lowest in the Nordic countries (Sweden, Finland, Denmark), Austria, Cyprus, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. A high persistence ratio is found in Greece, Slovakia, Ireland, Portugal, Bulgaria and Hungary (EU 2012: Employment and social developments)

14 Risks of long-term exclusion in Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia, Greece, Malta, Portugal and Italy

15 2. Spending and participation in ALMP decrease longterm unemployment

16 Social Services. An Essential Dimension of Inclusive Activation Active labour market policies have been criticised as being partially responsible for disappointing poverty trends (Cantillon, 2011: 445) Egalitarian and enabling role of social services for the labour market integration of groups with complex social problems (e.g. low qualifications, indebtedness, health, alcoholism, addiction, housing, transport)

17 Varieties of Inclusive Activation What is Activation? (R)emoval of options for labour market exit and unconditional benefit receipt 1. Demanding facets: Placement Conditionality 2. Enabling facets: Employment services: Job search, placement, training, personalised support Social services: Housing, counselling, childcare, disability Public education and health care Public education and health care Social services (counselling, care, housing) Job search assistence, placement, training Compensatory LMP, incentives

18 Services in kind (2009, in % of GDP, without health) 8 % 7 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 % Old age and other Housing Disability Family, children Unemployment 2 % 1 % 0 %

19 The results of a cluster analysis with 7 variables in three dimensions 1. Intensity of passive labour market policies 2. Active labour market policies 3. Social and family services Residual labour market policies Emerging activation regimes Compensatory welfare states on the move to more active employment policies Comprehensive activation

20 Four worlds of inclusive activation Unweighted means Comprehensive activation Compensatory welfare states on the move Emerging activation regimes Residual labour market policies Countries Denmark, Sweden Norway Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Spain Cyprus, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Slovenia, Luxembourg Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, UK Passive LMP Passive LMP/unemp ALMP ALMP/unemp Replacement Social services Family services Public education Health care Employment men/ women Unemployment Youth unempl

21 Social services reduce long-term unemployment

22 3. Fazit Hohe Arbeitslosenquoten und geringe und sinkende Erwerbstätigenquoten insbesondere in Südeuropa Stark segmentierte Arbeitsmärkte: Ausschluss von Jugendlichen, Migranten, Geringqualifizierten und Arbeitslosen aus dem Erwerbsleben Gefahr der dauerhaften Verfestigung von Arbeitslosigkeit und Armut in Süd- und Südosteuropa ( Hysteresis ) The high youth unemployment rates may contribute to a downward spiral of demotivation, social exclusion, social problems and dequalification which undermine the long-term perspectives not only of Southern European societies

23 Conclusion (2) Need for more inclusive activation policies; important role of social services for reduction of gender, age, educational and ethnic segmentation of the labour market Four worlds of activation: Comprehensive activation, compensatory welfare states on the move, emerging activation regimes, residual labour market policies and their workfare variant Success of integrated activation policies is not determined by national patterns of activation, but by local organisation of service provision

24 Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit

25 1. Reaktion auf asymmetrische Schocks bei flexiblen und festen Wechselkursen bei hoher Kapitalmobilität Flexible Wechselkurse Feste Wechselkurse/WWU

26 Austerity and growth (2011) Countries that imposed the strongest austerity measures also experienced the strongest declines in their GDP ( ) The more intense the austerity, the larger is the subsequent increase in the debt-to-gdp ratios ( ) undermined the capacity of these countries to continue to service the debt. (Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji 2013, Panic-driven austerity)