REPORT # 8. p' sm. THE GREATER PHOENIX JEWISH POPULATION PATTERNS OF MOBILITY. Bruce A. Phillips, PhD. William S. Aron, PhD

Transcription

1 REPORT # 8 p' sm. THE GREATER PHOENIX JEWISH POPULATION PATTERNS OF MOBILITY Bruce A. Phillips, PhD William S. Aron, PhD April 3, 1984

2 PATTERNS OF MOBILITY TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... PAGE 3 I. PROFILE OF RECENT MOVERS... PAGE 3 I1. MOVEMENT ALONG PLANNING AREAS... PAGE 3. 4 I11. SNOWBIRDS... PAGE 4 IV. TABLES & CHARTS... PAGE 5. 16

3 PATTERNS OF MOBILITY INTRODUCTION Geographic mobility is examined from three points of view in this report. First, the recent movers in each area are compared to each other and to the Phoenix Jewish population as a whole to understand who is moving where. Second, the patterns of specific movement among the four planning areas are examined in order to understand implications for population growth or decline. Finally, impact of part-time residents or "snowbirds" on Jewish population growth in Phoenix is examined. I. PROFILE OF RECENT MOVERS Slightly more than half (53%) of Phoenix Jewish households had moved to their current place of residence within three years prior to the study. For this report, these households are considered the "recent movers". In Tables VIII-1 through VIII-4 these new movers are profiled by time in Phoenix, age, family structure and income within each planning area. They are also compared with the Phoenix Jewish population as a whole. Time in Phoenix As a group, the recent movers have lived in Phoenix a shorter time than Jews as a whole: 39 percent of all Jewish households have lived in Phoenix 5 years or less as compared with 62 percent of the recent movers (Table VIII-1). Included among the recent movers (i.e., those who have lived at their current residence 3 years or less) are the 37.7 percent of all households who moved from outside of the Phoenix metropolitan area directly to their current residence within the past 3 years (Table VIII-5b). This overlap underscores the volume of recent movement to Phoenix. The impact of movement from outside the metropolitan area on the redistribution of Jewish population within Phoenix will be discussed later in this report. Recent movers within Central Phoenix have lived in the community the longest, while recent movers in Sun City have lived in Phoenix the shortest time (84% of recent movers in Sun City have lived in Phoenix five years of less). Family Structure The family structure of recent movers is very similar to that of the Jewish population as a whole (Table VIII-2). Never married and divorced household heads are more prevalent among the recent movers than among the population as a whole. The proportion of married couples without children among recent movers is greater than the proportion with children, and married couples overall are less prevalent among recent movers than among all households. Never marrieds are most prevalent among recent movers in Tri-Cities (38%), and married couples (with and without children) are more prevalent among recent movers in Scottsdale than recent movers in Central Phoenix or Tri-Cities. Age Recent movers are significantly younger than the population as a whole (Table VIII-3). Household heads under 40 are more prevalent among the recent movers than among the population as a whole. Similarly, household heads who are 60 and over are less prevalent among recent movers than among the population as a whole. The age patterns of recent movers vary from planning area to planning area. Recent movers are youngest in Tri-Cities (55.1% are under 30). While the proportion of recent movers who are under 40 in Scottsdale is higher than the proportion who are over 40, Scottsdale has a higher proportion of recent movers between 40 and 59 than any other planning area. As would be expected, recent movers in Sun City are the oldest. Income Recent movers have an income profde similar to the Jewish population as a whole, with one important difference (Table VIII-4). Households with incomes under $20,000 are less likely to be found among recent movers (28%) than among all Jewish households (35.2%). 11. MOVEMENT AMONG PLANNING AREAS Recent movers were asked about their previous place of residence. The place of previous residence is compared with the place of current residence in Tables VIII-5a&b and VIII-6 in order to get a sense of population growth in each planning area and population movement among the planning areas. The percentage of all recent movers (i.e., who have lived in their current residence three years or less) who made each particular move is reported in Table VIII-5a&b. In Table VIII-Sa, the left hand column shows the community of previous residence, the middle column the community of current residence, and the right hand column the percentage of all recent movers who moved from a particular previous area to the particular current planning area. In Table VIII-Sb, this same information is reorganized by type of move: within planning areas (i.e., both the previous and the current place of residence are in the same planning area), between planning areas (i.e., from a place of previous residence in a different planning area to the place of residence in the current one) and from outside the Phoenix metropolitan area to a place of residence in the current planning area. The majority of moves were made between two places of residence within the same planning area (45.1% of all recent movers), followed by movers whose previous residence was outside of Phoenix (37.7% of all recent movers). The remaining 17.2 percent of all recent movers moved from a previous residence in a different planning area to their current planning area of residence. Most of the movement between planning areas was into Scottsdale. Almost twice as many recent movers went from Central Phoenix to Scottsdale as moved the other way (6.1% as compared with 3.2% of all recent movers). Another 2.1 percent of all recent movers left Tri-Cities for Scottsdale, as compared with only 0.4 percent who moved the other way. On the other hand, more people left Central Phoenix for some other planning area than moved into it. As noted above, almost twice as many movers went from Central Phoenix to Scottsdale as moved the other way. Similarly, more recent movers left Central Phoenix for Tri-Cities (3.7%) than moved from Tri-Cities into Central Phoenix (1.4%). Almost no population exchange took place between Sun City and the other three planning areas. Table VIII-6 gives a sense of the relative growth of each planning area by juxtaposing three pieces of information: the percentage of all recent movers who... 1) moved out of that planning area into another, 2) moved into that planning area from another, and who 3) moved into that planning area from outside of the Phoenix metropolitan area. The percentage of all recent movers who moved into each planning area is divided by the number who moved out in order to provide a crude growth ratio. This ratio will be explained further as each planning area is discussed. Central Phoenix While twice as many households moved from Central Phoenix to another planning area as moved in from another planning area (10.0% of all recent movers left Central Phoenix, and 4.6% of all recent movers moved in), an additional 10.3 percent of all recent movers came to Central Phoenix from outside the metropolitan area, which tends to offset the households that relocated in another planning area. Thus, for every household that left Central Phoenix, 1.49 moved in.

4 Scottsdale Scottsdale is the opposite of Phoenix. Twice as many households moved into Scottsdale from some other planning area as moved out. Further, another 16.3 percent of all recent movers came directly from outside the metropolitan area into Scottsdale, for a total growth ratio of 6.8. In other words, for every household that moved from Scottsdale to another planning area, close to 7 moved in (either from out of town or another planning area). Tri-Cities The population exchange between Tri-Cities and the other areas is just about even: 3.5 percent of all recent movers went from Tri-Cities to another planning area, and 4.1 percent of all recent movers relocated in Tri-Cities from another planning area. When the movers from outside the metropolitan area are included in the calculation, the movement ratio is In other words, almost four households moved into Tri-Cities for everyone that moved out. Sun City Sun City is a special kind of community, and this is reflected in the mobility numbers. There was almost no population exchange between Sun City and the other planning areas (only 0.2% of all recent movers), and only 1.7 percent of all recent movers came from outside the metropolitan area to Sun City. These numbers reflect two larger trends. The first is that only a fraction (4.1 Yo) of all Jewish households in Phoenix are located in Sun City (Overview, Table I-1), and Jewish households in Sun City tend to relocate less often (Overview, Table 1-17). Not shown in Tables VIII-5a&b and VIII-6 are households that moved out of Phoenix (i.e., the opposite of those who moved from outside the metropolitan area into Phoenix). An approximation, however, is available from a question which asks: "Where do you expect to be living three years from now, just your best estimate?" These responses are tabulated by planning area in Table VIII-7. In reading Table VIII-7 it should be noted that "neighborhood" and "community" have smaller geographic meanings than does "planning area", which is made up of several zip codes. As might be expected, Sun City is the most stable planning area: 90 percent expect to be living in the same dwelling in three years, and another 7.5 percent expect to be living in the same neighborhood or community (for a total of 97.5 percent). Tri-Cities is the least stable: only 63.3 percent plan to remain there (49.4% in the same dwelling and 13.9% in the same neighborhood or community within Tri-Cities). Fully 21.7 percent of Tri- Cities households expect to be living in a different city (i.e., other than the Phoenix metropolitan area) within three years. Central Phoenix and Scottsdale are equally the most stable planning areas outside of Sun City: 75 percent of Scottsdale and 77 percent of Central Phoenix households expect to be in the same planning area (in either the same dwelling or the same neighborhood) in three years (the households in Central Phoenix are more. likely to remain in the same dwelling). When only the patterns of inter-area movement are considered, Central Phoenix appears to be declining, Scottsdale to be expanding rapidly, and Tri-Cities to be stable. When moves from outside the metropolitan area are considered as well, Central Phoenix appears to be growing slowly, Tri- Cities to be growing rapidly and Scottsdale would appear to lead all other Phoenix regions in growth (Table VIII-6 and Chart VIII-I). However, when plans to move and residential stability are further considered, the growth in Scottsdale and Tri-Cities is diminished. Residents in Tri-Cities are three times as likely to have plans to move to another city as residents of Scottsdale and Central Phoenix (22% compared with 8% and 9%, respectively). As would be expected, only a handful (2.5%) of the Sun City residents have plans to leave the Phoenix metropolitan area. The plans to move are consistent with a second question on movement - the number of moves made by the household during the last five years (Table VIII-8). More than half (58%) of the households in Central Phoenix have not moved at all during the last five years. Tri-Cities, on the other hand, is the most mobile area. Close to half (47.1%) of the Tri- Cities households have moved two or more times during the past five years. Scottsdale falls in the middle. Thus, the number of moves made during the past five years is similar to the patterns of expected moves during the next three. The geographical volatility of Tri-Cities is probably related to the large number of younger and single households in the area "SNOWBIRDS" The survey was timed to go into the field by February so as to include a sample of "Snowbirds", or persons who come to Phoenix for the winter months. As defined here, however, a "Snowbird" is any Jewish resident of Phoenix who answered "part-time" to the question: "Do you live in Phoenix all year round, or do you live here only part of the year?" There are close to 2,000 estimated part-time residents of Phoenix, half of whom live in Scottsdale (Table 1-2, Overview Report). 'The residential patterns of the "Snowbird" population are described, and the number of part-time residents who have or may become full-time residents is estimated in this section of the report. Three out of every four Snowbirds interviewed lives in Phoenix five months a year or longer, and close to half (48.4%) stay for 7 months or longer (Table VIII-9). As would be expected, the most popular months of residence are December through April (Table VIII-10). The small number of interviews (44) conducted with Snowbirds makes it difficult to be precise about their geographical distribution, but it is 4 evident that the largest group comes from the Midwest (46%), with equal numbers coming from the West (24%) and the Northeast (22%) (Table VIII-11). The current flock of Snowbirds, like the Jewish population as a whole, are recent arrivals in Phoenix. Well over half (64.7%) have been part-time residents of Phoenix for under five years, with fewer than one out of five (17.8%) visiting Phoenix for eight years or longer (Table VIII-12). The Snowbirds will not add appreciably to the Jewish population of Phoenix. Only one quarter of some 800 Snowbird households indicate that they are "very likely" to move to Phoenix as permanent residents (Table VIII-13a). Of those who are thinking about coming, most will do so in the next five years, though only 21 percent plan to come within the next year (Table VIII-13b). These estimates are consistent with what is known about the current full-time population. Only 7 percent of the households that live in Phoenix now have been part-time residents in the past (Table VIII-14a), and most of these (51.4%) had been part-time residents for two years or less (Table VIII-14b). At the beginning of the study, members of the study committee spoke of the popular conception of Jewish Phoenix as disproportionately made up of people who had retired part-time to Phoenix (i.e., "Snowbirds"), and ex-snowbirds who had eventually been transformed into permanent residents. This conception has turned out to be inaccurate. The percentage of retired Jewish elderly is about the same in Phoenix as in other Jewish communities, and the Snowbird population while distinctive to Phoenix, is only a minor part of the population and a minor source of population growth.

5 '$BLE VIII-1: NUMBER OF YEARS LIVED IN PHOENIX FOR RECENT MOVERS AND TOTAL L RECENT MOVERS: CENTRAL SCOTTSDALE TRI- SUN ALL RECENT ALL PHOENIX P.VALLEY CITIES CITY MOVERS HOUSEHOLDS -_ _ yrs or less years years years TOTAL *From Table 1-16 (Overview) I.... I ( I I %ABLE VIII-~: FAMILY STRUCTURE FOR RECENT MOVERS AND TOTAL... RECENT MOVERS: CENTRAL SCOTTSDALE TRI- SUN ALL RECENT ALL PHOENIX P.VALLEY CITIES CITY MOVERS HOUSEHOLDS Never Married ' Div. Separated I Widow(er) , Single Parent Mar Cple no Chld ' I I Mar Cple w/ Chld TOTAL *?From Table 1-7 (Overview)

6 d... TABLE VIII-3: AGE OF RESPONDENT FOR RECENT MOVERS AiiD TOTAL... d RECENT MOVERS: CENTRAL SCOTTSDALE TRI- SUN ALL RECENT ALL PHOENIX P.VALLEY CITIES CITY MOVERS HOUSEHOLDS O t TOTAL TABLE VIII-4: COPJIBINED HOUSEHOLD INCOME FOR RECENT blovers.and TOTAL... RECENT MOVERS: CENTRAL SCOTTSDALE TRI- SUN ALL RECENT ALL PHOENIX P.VALLEY CITIES CITY MOVERS HOUSEHOLDS... Under $20, TOTAL * *From Table I-15b (Overview)

7 ... TABLE VIII-5a: PATTERNS OF b1ovement FOR RECENT MOVERS... MOVED FROM (PREVIOUS) MOVED TO (CURRENT) PER CENT OF RECENT MOVERS Central Phoenix Central Phoenix 21.1 Out of Metro Tri-Cities Scottsdale Tri-Cities Scottsdale Scottsdale 11.7 Out of Metro Central Phoenix 10.3 Out of Metro Tri-Cities 9.4 Central Phoenix Scottsdale 6.1 Central Phoenix Tri-Cities 3.7 Scottsdale Central Phoenix 3.2 Tri-Cities Out of Metro Scottsdale Sun City Tri-Cities Central Phoenix 1.4 Sun City Sun City 0.5 Central Phoenix Sun City 0.2 ALL RECENT MOVERS (TOTAL) 100.0

8 ... TABLE VIII-5b: SUbMRY---PATTERNS OF MOVEMENT FOR RECEIqT MOVERS... PATTERN OF MOVEMENT PER CENT OF RECENT MOVERS WITHIN PLANNING AREAS: 45.1 Within Central Phoenix (21.1) Within Scottsdale Within Tri-Cities Within Sun City (0.5) BETWEEN PLANNING AREAS Scottsdale to Central Phoenix Central Phoenix to Scottsdale Scottsdale to Tri-Cities Tri-Cities to Scottsdale Scottsdale to Sun City Sun City to Scottsdale Central Phoenix to Tri-Cities (3.7) Tri-Cities to Central Phoenix (1.4) Central Phoenix to Sun City Sun City to Central Phoenix Tri-Cities to Sun City Sun City to Tri-Cities FROM OUTSIDE OF METRO PHOENIX To Scottsdale To Central Phoenix (10.3) To Tri-Cities To Sun City

9 TABLE VIII-6: PATTERNS OF RECENT MOVEMENT AND PLANNING AREA GROWTH ~ PER CENT OF RECENT MOVERS CENTRAL PHOENIX Moved out of Central Phoenix to other planning area Moved into Central Phoenix from other Planning area 4.6 Moved into Central Phoenix from outside of Metro Area 10.3 RATIO OF MOVERS I N TO MOVERS OUT... [1.49] SCOTTSDALE Moved out of Scottsdale to other planning area Moved into Scottsdale from other Planning area 8.2 Moved into Scottsdale from outside of Metro Area RATIO OF MOVERS I N TO MOVERS OUT... [6.8] TRI-CITIES Moved out of Tri-Cities to other planning area Moved into Tri-Cities from other Planning area 4.1 Moved into Tri-Cities from outside of Metro Area RATIO OF MOVERS I N TO MOVERS OUT [3.86] SUN CITY Moved out of Sun City to other planning area Moved into Sun City from other Planning area Moved into Sun City from outside of Metro Area RATIO OF MOVERS I N TO MOVERS OUT [N/A]

10 TABLE VIII-7: WHERE RESPONDENT EXPECI'S TO LIVE IN 3 YEARS BY PLANNING AREA CENTRAL SCOTTSDALE TRI- SUN ALL PHOENIX P. VALLEY CITIES CITY HOUSEHOLDS Same Dwelling Same Nborhood or Cmnty Diff. Nborhood or Cmnty Different City Other Response TOTAL TABLE VIII-8: NUMBER OF TIMES MOVED IN LAST 5 YEARS BY PLANNING AREA CENTRAL SCOTTSDALE TRI- SUN ALL PHOENIX P.VALLEY CITIES CITY HOUSEHOLDS... None One Two or More TOTAL TABLE VIII-9: NUMBER OF MONTHS PART TIME RESIDENTS LIVE IN PHOENIX Number of Months Two or less Per Cent of Part Time Residents 24.5 Five or Six Seven to Ten TOTAL

11 TABLE VIII-10: MONTHS THAT PART TIME RESIDENTS LIVE IN PHOENIX Months September October November December January February March April Ma Y June July August Per Cent of Part Time Residents TABLE VIII-11: REGIONS WHERE PART TIME RESIDENTS LIVE WHEN NOT IN PHOENIX... Region Northeast South, Southeast Midwest West, Southwest TOTAL Per Cent of Part Time Residents

12 Number of Years One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight or More TOTAL Per Cent of Part Time Residents TABLE VIII-13a: LIKELIHOOD THAT PART TIME RESIDENTS WILL BECOME PERMANENT e II How Likely is it that you w i l l become a permanent resident of Phoenix at some time in the Future? Very Likely 24.2 Somewhat Likely Not at A l l Likely Not Sure 4.2 TOTAL 100.0

13 ... TABLE VIII-13b: WHEN LIKELY PART TIME RESIDENTS WOULD BECOME P ERWENT When Part Time Residents who are very or somewhat likely to become Next Year Or This Year Within 5 years Not Sure TOTAL... TABLE VIII-14a: PREVIOUS PART TIME RESIDENCE FOR CURRENT HOUSEHOLDS... I1 Were you ever a part time resident of Phoenix before moving here full time?" Yes No TOTAL TABLE VIII-14b: NUMBER OF YEARS OF FORMER PART TIME RESIDENCE How many years did you live in Phoenix as a part time resident?" One 24.3% Two 27.1% Three, Four, Five 26.6% Six or More 22.9 TOTAL 100.0

14 PATTERNS OF MOVEMENT (% of All Recent Movers) NOTE: SUN CITY IS NOT INCLUDED ,, SCOTTSDALE - P.V. < > (12%) (16%) <===x==~i=pp==p==,. r - - " " " " ".. CENTRAL PHOENIX (3%), <---, < IPPPP=II==I ( (10%),,, < >, (21%). 1% 'i\ I (6%) > (2%) 4-4 -r - - I, 4% 4. (9%, <======I== p TRI-CITIES < > (12%) * A LEGEND ---> Move between areas <,,-=El Move from outside Metro to area <----- > Move within an area NOTE: Each mark ( - or = )equals 1 per cent

15 Too small to count

16