Finding income and managing risk in a near-zero interest-rate environment

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1 Aging Workforce Series Finding income and managing risk in a near-zero interest-rate environment William Martin, Head of Fixed-Income Portfolio Management TIAA-CREF Executive Summary Yields in traditional fixed-income strategies are near rock-bottom, causing many investors to seek other opportunities to meet income requirements. The current low-yield landscape raises important issues, including where to find adequate income, how to address the risk of rising rates and how to protect against the potential for higher inflation. Some non-traditional sources of yield include emerging-market debt, U.S. high-yield debt, dividend-paying stocks, real assets and commodities. A well-diversified fixed-income portfolio may provide income and generate positive returns even in a rising rate environment. We expect to see modestly higher rates into year-end, and we remain constructive on the potential for fixed-income returns in Led by waves of retiring Baby Boomers, investors have allocated more than $1 trillion to bond funds and pulled more than a half trillion from stock funds since 2008 at a time when interest rates have fallen to historically-low levels. Bonds can produce regular coupon (interest) payments and are often less volatile than stocks, especially during market downturns. These are big pluses for investors seeking capital preservation and an income stream. Yields in the traditional high-quality havens favored by income seekers are near rock-bottom, however, causing many to look for other opportunities to satisfy their income requirements. The current low-yield landscape raises important issues for all investors, including where to find adequate income, how to address the risk of rising rates and how to protect against the potential for higher inflation. Interest rates could remain low for at least the next two to three years as the Federal Reserve has committed to keeping them there until 2015 to stimulate job creation and economic growth. As the economy continues to improve, however, rates could begin to increase as investors seek to move out of bonds and into riskier investments such as stocks. In this article, we will look at some non-traditional options for sourcing yield and for managing risk in the current low-yield environment. 1

2 Figure 1: Cumulative flows into stock and bond funds since 2008 billions Taxable bond funds Thinking beyond the Agg $1.1 trillion into bonds $509.6 billion out of stocks Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Stock funds Source: Investment Company Institute, cumulative monthly net flows into retail equity and taxable fixed-income mutual funds, as of March 2013 For retirement-plan participants, an increased exposure to fixed income often means adding more holdings based on the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, a benchmark widely used by the industry for managing fixed-income strategies. Known as the Agg, the index covers more than 8,000 bonds, mostly domestic investment-grade issues, including corporate, U.S. government, and mortgage-backed securities. Approximately $4 trillion in investor assets are managed against the Agg, as it provides access to a deep, broad and liquid universe. The index has posted only two years of negative returns (1994, -2.9% and 1999, -0.8%) since 1976, which is a testament to the endurance and sturdiness of the U.S. investment-grade bond market over the last several decades. In recent years the index composition has changed, however, reflecting the evolving nature of debt issuance. For example, as U.S. government debt issuance has increased to record levels, so has its presence in the index, which is capitalization-weighted. As of the end of March, 37% of the index was comprised of U.S. Treasuries, versus about 21% a decade ago, though this figure has fluctuated over the years. Corporate bonds, which are higher-yielding, are a much lower component of the index today versus a decade ago. There are many options outside of the Agg to consider, including some that offer income-generating opportunities. As with all investments, there is no such thing as a silver bullet, as all approaches involve risk. Emerging-market debt International fixed-income markets have matured over the last two decades and far surpass the U.S. market in terms of total issuance size. The non-u.s. debt market is roughly $74 trillion, nine times what it was in 1989 and almost triple the size of the U.S. debt market. 1 One fast-growing segment of the international market is emerging-market debt. The credit quality of emerging market issuers has also improved, as the percentage of investment-grade EM countries has increased from 39% in 2007 to 62% in The advantage of having an allocation to EM debt has been evident in recent years, including in 2012, when returns for these markets led the way (see Figure 3). As of early April 2013, EM government debt was yielding 5.2%, compared to 1.86% for the broad U.S. bond market. 3 Figure 2: Difficult to find yield in investment-grade domestic bonds % Jan-99 Aug-99 Mar-00 Oct-00 May-01 Dec-01 Jul-02 Feb-03 Sep-03 Apr-04 Nov-04 Jun-05 Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13 BBB Corporate Bonds Mortgage Master Treasury/Agency Master: AAA Rated Corporate Bonds 5-7 yrs Broad Bond Market Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, yield-to-maturity, end of period as of February 28,

3 Figure 3: Fixed-income market returns in % 15% 18.14% 15.81% 10% 5% 9.82% 9.66% 6.98% 4.21% 3.66% 3.02% 2.59% 1.99% 0% Global EM High Yield Corporate CMBS Inflationlinked Barclays Agg ABS Agency MBS Treasury Source: FactSet, as of April The performance discussion above concerns various market indices. It is not possible to invest in an index. Performance for indices does not reflect investment fees or transactions costs. By making an international allocation, investors may improve risk-adjusted returns versus a fixed-income strategy focused solely on the domestic U.S. market. Despite these returns, EM investing involves many risks, including the potential for currency risk, however, which investors should consider carefully. U.S. high-yield debt U.S. high-yield debt offers another way to help build a diversified portfolio. High-yield debt has low correlations to investment-grade fixed income and may offer lower sensitivity to rising interest rates than Treasuries. Yields in the high-yield segment are also currently near record lows (6.14% as of early April), which could make an allocation challenging now, though spreads remain above pre-crisis levels, providing cushion to our current forecast for highyield defaults. 4 As economic activity continues to pick up, the risk of issuer default one of the primary risks of investing in high yield debt should remain steady or even decline, as measured by the credit default rate. 5 High-yield bonds have historically outperformed investmentgrade corporate bonds and have exhibited performance characteristics that are similar to stocks, but with less volatility. This may make high-yield bonds an attractive middle ground for investors looking for a mix of risk/ reward options plus attractive yields. Dividend-paying stocks Historically, yields on bonds exceed those of stocks and usually by a wide margin. The yields of these two asset classes converged during the financial crisis as investors piled into bonds, bidding up prices and causing yields to dip. Nowadays, the yield on the S&P 500 Index is competitive with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. (Of course, despite offering competitive yield, stocks have risk characteristics that are far different from those for bonds.) While these relative yields are an interesting market anomaly, we expect the historical relationship between equities and fixed income to eventually normalize as the economy stabilizes and the Federal Reserve shifts away from quantitative easing. An income-seeker with a longer-time horizon may consider stocks as part of an overall strategy. Real assets Real assets refer to investments such as precious metals, commodities and property. Many real assets have highly favorable economics that is, the end products are in demand by a growing world population and there is only so much supply. The assets also have the advantage of not being highly correlated with traditional fixed-income securities. Real assets often offer hybrid investment characteristics equity-like upside along with relatively stable bond-like income. TIAA-CREF, for instance, invests in timberland in North and South America, Australia and New Zealand. These strategies provide diversification and income, in addition to inflation-hedging benefits. Investment strategies like these are becoming more common and available to more investors as they provide another incomegenerating option. 6 Fixed annuities In an era of low interest rates, annuities may have an increasing role to play in retirement planning as they can offer steady income. With fixed or guaranteed annuities, the issuer, not the contract owner, assumes all investment risk. 3

4 Figure 4: Equity yields edged higher than bonds % Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 S&P: Composite 500, Dividend Yield (%) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant Maturity (% p.a.) Source: Haver Analytics, as of April Fixed annuities offer a guaranteed payment, with the payout amount calculated in part based on the assumed future returns of the investments in the underlying portfolio that supports the annuity s guarantees, and on the annuitant s life expectancy. All guarantees are based upon the claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company. The payment can be fixed for life or can allow for future increases. Fixed annuity payments are not negatively impacted by changing interest rates, though bond values may fluctuate. This characteristic of annuities may provide enhanced diversification and offer greater ability to control risk in a broader portfolio. The risk of rising rates and inflation There are two major risks in bond investing: credit risk (risk of issuer default) and interest-rate risk. Many investors are concerned with interest-rate risk, as rates are expected by many to increase in the months and possibly years to come. While the Federal Reserve has committed to keeping its short-term policy rates low until 2015, market effects could trigger rate increases before then. As the economy improves, investors may move from safe havens such as Treasuries and other U.S. government securities into riskier asset classes such as stocks and high-yield debt. With less demand for conservative bonds, interest rates may rise. Some bonds are more sensitive to rising rates than others, which is why duration is a critical concept to understand in fixed-income investing. Duration is a measurement of a bond or bond fund s sensitivity to a change in interest rates, expressed in a number of years. Bond values fluctuate with rising and falling interest rates. Bonds and bond funds with longer duration tend to be more sensitive to rising and falling rates. Longer duration has helped some bonds outperform during a declining rate environment, but that same attribute could cause underperformance versus shorter-duration bonds in a rising rate environment. Duration of the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, for example, was 5.26 years compared to 4.34 years on the Barclays High Yield Very Liquid Index in early April, which would indicate that the Agg is more sensitive to rate changes than the high yield index, though the high-yield index may exhibit greater spread volatility. 7 High-yield bonds also typically appreciate in value when the economy improves, as default rates tend to fall, and investors seek opportunities for achieving greater returns. High-yield spreads, or the difference in yield between high-yield bonds and similar Treasury bonds, tend to narrow when an economy improves, which indicates investor demand for the asset class. Inflation is also problematic for bonds, since it erodes the value of the fixed payments that they generate. As the real value of those fixed payments declines, there is generally a fall in the price of the underlying security. There are a number of ways to invest in fixed income while seeking to minimize exposure to rising rates and inflation, including investing in bonds and funds with shorter duration. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), floating-rate loans and other inflation-sensitive assets, such as commodities and real estate, also offer opportunities to manage risk in, and add return to, a fixed-income strategy. At TIAA-CREF, we believe it is possible to mitigate rising rates and maintain high levels of liquidity while generating attractive returns. We look for opportunities to invest in high-yield, emerging-market debt, leveraged loans which are sectors that tend to offer portfolio protection and yield opportunities when interest rates rise, while other sectors, such as U.S. Treasuries, generally underperform during these periods. When we see increased potential for rising rates, we look for opportunities in these sectors, and for opportunities to maintain the flexibility to move in or out of a position, or hold onto bonds that will continue to provide income and stability during uncertain times. 4

5 Finding income and managing risk Expanding diversification in a fixed-income portfolio Retirees not long ago could park capital in low-risk forms of debt and be confident about preserving the value of their investment. In the year 2000, for instance, $100,000 invested in U.S. Treasury bills would have produced close to $5,700 over the course of the year a 5.7% rate of interest, and more than enough to compensate for that year s 3.4% inflation rate. Those days are a memory. Today, $100,000 invested in Treasury bills would produce an anemic $110 over the course of a year, 8 which is not nearly enough to keep pace with inflation, which averaged 2.1% in A well-diversified fixed-income portfolio that includes exposure to a range of incomeproducing asset classes has the potential to provide income and generate positive returns even in a rising-rate environment. Barring a large, unexpected rate spike, we expect to see modestly higher rates into year-end, and we remain constructive on the potential for fixedincome returns in Investors should consider their views on inflation, their risk tolerance and their specific investment goals when making an allocation to any asset class. Knowing and understanding the composition of a bond portfolio can help investors understand how their investments may perform under different scenarios, including under low-rate and rising-rate conditions. C Bank for International Settlements data as of JP Morgan Emerging Market Global Diversified Index 3. Yield-to-maturities of the Barclays EM Local Currency Government Diversified and Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Indexes. 4. As measured by the yield-to-maturities of the Barclays High Yield Very Liquid Index. 5. The U.S. high yield default rate was 1.9% in 2012, and is expected to remain around the same in 2013, according to Fitch Ratings. The average rate since 2000 is 5.4%. 6. For example, retail alternative asset strategies such as commodities, real estate and precious metals, offered in regulated ETF and mutual fund vehicles grew at a 21% annualized rate to roughly $626 billion in total assets from 2005 to 2011, according to McKinsey & Company research. Real Asset and Commodity investments may be subject to substantial volatility. 7. As measured by the modified adjusted duration, an indicator of a portfolio s sensitivity to rising interest rates. Spread volatility measures the difference between high yield and Treasury bill interest rates. 8. Based on an interest rate of 0.11% for a 1-year T-Bill as of April 17, The information provided herein is as of April 20, The material is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any product or service to which this information may relate. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. TIAA-CREF Asset Management provides investment advice and portfolio management services to the TIAA- CREF group of companies through the following entities: Teachers Advisors, Inc., TIAA-CREF Investment Management, LLC, and Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association (TIAA ). Teachers Advisors, Inc, is a registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association (TIAA). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that diversification is a technique to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that diversification will protect against a loss of income. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please note that fixed income and equity investing involve risk _ A14008 (04/13)