FMI s Construction Outlook 2ND Quarter Report

Transcription

1 2014 FMI s Construction Outlook 2ND Quarter Report "The future ain't what it used to be." Yogi Berra Yogi Berra once famously said, Nobody goes there anymore. It s too crowded. Berra was responding to a question about why he had not been to a favorite, popular restaurant anymore. In our case, we are using this bit of paradoxical humor as an introduction to our forecast, in particular to look at the changes in retail commercial construction and the changing construction industry in general. Berra s quote will not help us explain why our forecast for the construction industry has been lowered 1% compared with last quarter s Outlook forecast. For that answer, we will try to explain below. If there is one overarching theme to the global economy, someone is lying to you. Better to listen to another famous quotable major league manager, Casey Stengel, who said, Never make predictions, especially about the future. With that bit of Stengelese in mind, we return to the Berra quote to look at the changing retail market. The idea that it s too crowded probably started some holiday shopping season about a decade ago or actually a little bit earlier with the breakout success of Amazon.com. Amazon s success as a bookstore decimated traditional bricks and mortar bookstores. Amazon s success as a buy-just-about-everything-online business is being imitated all over the Net. Now imagine the result as some late, lazy or clever shoppers seeking to avoid the crowds do most of their shopping online one cold holiday season in If it worked out fine, gifts were purchased and arrived on time not all of them did for Christmas 2013 and then it is no surprise that such shoppers will try it repeatedly. This is one important reason that commercial construction is not coming back as fast as one would historically expect after a recession. New shopping capacity is being created on the Internet where the real estate is seemingly infinite and less expensive to maintain. (That is, barring the unforeseen viruses and malware mucking up the sales, a real problem to consider in the future.) Just how much online shopping has hurt the retail industry in general and contractors building commercial buildings is harder to track down, but it is certainly changing the way retailers view their traditional storefronts. In our chart below, we can see that, despite growing about 4% since 2005, e-commerce is still a very small percentage of total retail sales. However, what we re suggesting here is that, to quote Berra again, The future ain t what it used to be. The idea that e-commerce will overtake bricks and mortar storefronts is not inevitable, but it is inevitable that it will continue to remake the concept of the traditional store and might even decimate more markets like the bookstore. For instance, can you find a local camera store these days? So what s next for the e-commerce engine? Consider online education is one of the

2 2 2nd Quarter 2014 Report biggest construction markets as a potential candidate for more online exchange of goods. Religious "construction" can also be done online, and is. Office, travel, amusement and recreation, even health care are all changing as more of our lives are spent online. How far will it go? We won t go there with that answer. It s too crowded. The point to all this pontificating about changing technology is that, even traditional, mature industries like construction need to be aware of how much these things can and will change their businesses, not just in market changes, but construction companies utilizing new technologies in new ways. In most cases, even the generations-old family business isn t the same even though some have maintained the original culture. That s how a business grows for multiple generations. So where does a company go with its strategy in a technological world? New markets? Same markets, new products and services? Same clients, new services? Same markets, same services, more competitive? All of these are valid strategies, but which approach does a company use if, for instance, more retail goes e-tail? There is a need for more data centers and warehouses and maybe even pick-up centers. If a company persists in going to the same market where it has always worked in even if it is getting too crowded there, it must have some new tactics like being the low-price provider or the most efficient contractor. That can lead to ideas like using more modular and prefabricated construction. There is no single solution. If there was, why have multiple competitors in the market? While it is a dangerous business, we are compelled to predict the future. May you live in interesting times, to paraphrase the old proverb. We are indeed living in interesting times. And predicting the direction of the economy is even more difficult than the long-term weather forecast. In fact, most are blaming at least some of the current slowdown on a tough winter and spring weather. Floods, tornadoes, ice, snow and firestorms will put a dent in a growing economy, and we can predict that there is more to come whether or not one believes in global warming. Moreover, speaking of unpredictable, it is once again an election year. Even a nonpresidential election year can now cause the economy to shudder. Negative advertising is even now being cooked up behind closed war rooms, which helps the revenue of the news media, but gives the rest of us heartburn as the economy sits on the sidelines and waits it out once again. Will there be a new highway-spending bill? More funds spent on infrastructure and schools? Stay tuned. We predict that things will change.

3 FMI s Construction Outlook 3 Total Retail Sales vs. E-Commerce Sales Growth History United States Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential Consumers (Dollars Per Thousand Cubic Feet) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

4 4 2nd Quarter 2014 Report Weekly U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars Per Gallon) Source: hppt:// Consumer Price Index Inflation Remains Under Control

5 FMI s Construction Outlook 5 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Source: The Conference Board Construction Unemployment Rates

6 6 2nd Quarter 2014 Report Construction Forecast With all the talk about the unpredictability of predictions, we are going out on a limb and mostly sticking to our predictions of last quarter. Overall, our construction forecast remains in the cautiously optimistic zone; it is just that we are a little more cautious and a little less optimistic. We still believe that residential construction is expected to remain a high-growth market, but we have once again pulled back on the outlook. Multifamily is still a fast-growing market, but the rate of growth is slowing. Home improvements are improving. The interplay among these three residential categories is dynamic and heavily influenced by job growth, wage growth and interest rates, among other factors. Despite all our well-reasoned and researched caution, we still feel that in some areas nonresidential construction is on the verge of breaking out of its long slumber. For instance, health care and education markets have both slowed due to political circumstances. Those issues could be solved next year, and the pent-up demand will come rushing into the markets. Infrastructure is another example. If someone can come up with the political will or new ideas for funding and operating, this area could take off. These are longshots at this time, but we may even see a Triple Crown winner this year too. All that said, we expect total construction put in place to grow at the rate of 7% this year and for the next few years. Despite all odds and nasty economic weather, the nation needs to grow, and that means more construction projects. FMI Construction Put in Place, Estimated for the United States

7 FMI s Construction Outlook 7 RESIDENTIAL After looking like housing starts were slowing the pace of growth again, starts popped up to million units in April. Multifamily construction growth remains strong as pent-up demand and new family formation look like the primary drivers. We expect affordability, especially in upscale areas and around major markets, to be a continued problem for the younger home seekers. Affordability, mobility and uncertainty in the job market will keep new-home growth from booming in the near future even as apartment prices rise. Our current growth-rate forecast has been adjusted down from 18% to 12% for 2014 and moderating somewhat in the following years. As noted last quarter, employment figures are slightly better, but new jobs and pay scales aren t rising as fast as costs. This will keep the growth rate down for most of the country. Another reason for slower growth is the long-term memory of foreclosures. Although the foreclosure inventory is down, according to CoreLogic, The inventory of homes in foreclosure and serious delinquency status are back to 2008 levels. (CoreLogic, National Foreclosure Report, March 2014) Even those who have not gone through foreclosure know someone who has, so renting still has an appeal over foreclosure. Residential Construction Put in Place Residential Construction Improvements Put in Place

8 8 2nd Quarter 2014 Report New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of Units, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) According to CoreLogic, completed foreclosures were up 5.9 percent from February to March 2014 and down 10 percent since March The April 2014 report, S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, reported annual rates of gain slowed for the 10-City and 20-City Composites. The Composites posted 13.1% and 12.9% in the 12 months ending February According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,080,000. This is 8.0 percent (±0.7%) above the revised March rate of 1,000,000 and is 3.8 percent (±0.9%) above the April 2013 estimate of 1,040,000. Also, Privately owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,072,000. This is 13.2 percent (±13.6%)* above the revised March estimate of 947,000 and is 26.4 percent (±11.8%) above the April 2013 rate of 848,000. (May 2014) Unemployment Core CPI Income Mortgage rates Home prices Housing starts Housing permits

9 FMI s Construction Outlook 9 NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS Construction as a Percentage of GDP *FMI Forecast Construction Spending and Nominal GDP *FMI Forecast

10 10 2nd Quarter 2014 Report Value of Public Construction Put in Place (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) Millions of dollars. Details may not add up to totals due to rounding. Value of Construction Put in Place Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (Millions of Dollars) As of November 2013 Total Construction Put in Place (March 2013) % of Total Construction Put in Place (Q1 2013) Total Construction Put in Place (March 2014) % of Total Construction Put in Place (Q1 2014) *Public Construction *State and Local *Federal FMI Forecast: Private Construction Put in Place FMI Forecast: Construction Put in Place $273,444 $241,625 $23,518 $626,503 $899,947 30% 27% 3% 70% 100% $262,917 $239,702 $23,215 $696,404 $959,321 27% 25% 2% 73% 100% * Source: U.S. Census Bureau Construction Spending Lodging While still less than half the construction activity since its peak in 2008, lodging construction continues to grow at a steady pace. Our latest forecast calls for 14 percent growth in 2014 and slowing to 11 percent next year. Lodging growth is recovering from a large dip in 2009 and 2010, and activity to renovate and update will still be strong even as new lodging starts improve. Slow growth in new hotels is welcome by many in the industry as occupancy rates and RevPar improve. According to PwC, As a milestone in the recovery, by the fourth quarter of 2014, we expect real, seasonally adjusted RevPAR will recover to the peak reached in the fourth quarter of 2007 at the onset of the economic recession. (PwC, Hospitality Directions U.S. January 2014) According to a report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC), RevPar growth should end up at 6.0% for (PwC Hospitality Directions U.S. January 2014) The increase in average daily rates per room will continue to be modest as business and vacation travelers shop for the best buy. According to Lodging Econometrics forecast, the pipeline for new openings will improve 18.2% in Green building is more commonplace in remodels and retrofits. Occupancy rate RevPar Average daily rate Room starts Lodging Construction Put in Place

11 FMI s Construction Outlook 11 Office New office construction is still low but improving as we adjusted our forecast for 2014 up to 4 percent from 2 percent last quarter to $40.1 billion for As more people move to the city looking for work and for convenience, demand for office space is improving. The fundamentals continue to improve as rents increase and vacancy rate decreases. Other trends that keep new space down include working at home and increasing density of offices per square foot. Both of those trends can only go so far, so construction for office space will continue to improve slowly in the next five years. According to the National Association of Realtors, Office rents are projected to increase 2.3 percent in 2014 and 3.2 percent next year. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely to total 44.6 million square feet this year and 50.0 million in Reis reports office vacancy rates for Q1 to be down slightly to 17 percent. This is little changed since the recession; net absorption of new space is still positive. Office vacancy rate Unemployment rate Office Construction Put in Place

12 12 2nd Quarter 2014 Report Commercial Almost anytime we see a warming trend for commercial construction these days, it cools off quickly. That s why we dialed back our outlook from 7% growth to 6% growth in This is likely a saner rate of growth in any event and still ahead of GDP growth. As noted in the introduction, e- commerce, while still only a small percentage of total retail sales, is taking up the slack of new business, thus likely forestalling some of the need for more floor space or new stores. For contractors working in the commercial sector, pricing will continue to be a challenge even while owners want more amenities such as green building methods. The challenges may have some benefits as contractors learn to work leaner and use new building methods like prefabrication and modular construction. According to the Department of Commerce, retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $434.6 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5) from the previous month, and 4.0 percent (±0.7) above April Total sales for the February 2014 through April 2014 period were up 3.3 percent (±0.5) from the same period a year ago. The February 2014 to March 2014 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±0.5) to +1.5 percent (±0.2). The Department of Commerce also reported nonstore retailers were up 6.5 percent (±2.5) from last year. Consumer confidence improved in March to 83.9 but slipped back to 82.3 in April. This is still the best showing since the precipitous fall starting at the end of (The Conference Board) Increased store remodeling could stall new construction. Look for increasing multiuse projects. Retail sales CPI Unemployment rate Income Housing starts Building permits Commercial Construction Put in Place

13 FMI s Construction Outlook 13 Health Care Recent estimates by Deloitte call for health care facilities to grow by $64 million in light of demand coming from insuring millions of new people because of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Nonetheless, the political uncertainty continues to hold off a rash of new health care facilities. We have once again reeled in our forecast to a flat 0 percent growth for Still, we expect about $40.8 billion in new construction, so that means construction continues at a sustainable pace. Uncertainty and preparation for new laws and patients have moved some of the focus from large, new hospitals to greater outpatient care closer to the patients. Refurbishing and updating extant facilities will continue in order to provide healthier conditions and be more efficient with the use of greater technology. The Affordable Health Care Act (ACA) implementation is highly flawed due to poor software implementation and continued political hurdles causing uncertainty in the market for health care Hospital beds per 1,000 people trending downward Shorter patient stays Increasing use of growing number of ambulatory-care facilities Heath care industry still not prepared for increased number of insured Trend toward rebuilding existing facilities to use modern hospital design and allow for greater use of technology Nontraditional funding sources for private nonprofit facilities Private development and equity Government or government-backed Pension and life insurance companies Population change younger than age 18 Population change ages Stock market Government spending Nonresidential structure investment Health Care Construction Put in Place

14 14 2nd Quarter 2014 Report Educational Education construction is the largest sector of total nonresidential construction put in place. Therefore, a slowdown in the pace of construction for education is a large contributor to slow growth in construction overall. Despite improving state and local tax revenues, education construction is currently expected to add only 1% for School additions and renovation, along with more year-round schools, will help control some potential overcrowding. Changing populations, caused by relocating retirees, decreasing the tax base and more young people moving to metro areas, will also be a challenge to school planning. Significantly less funding from states for K-12 schools. Enrollment growth 2.5 million in the next four years. New school designs will be more flexible for changing classrooms and greater use of natural light. Greater attention to reducing energy use and employing green building technologies. Renovation and additions to current school buildings will continue to grow in comparison to new school projects. Greater focus on safe schools as the threat for shootings on campus continues to rise. Population change younger than age 18 Population change ages Stock market Government spending Nonresidential structure investment Educational Construction Put in Place

15 FMI s Construction Outlook 15 Religious We have dropped our overall outlook for religious building construction for 2014 from 1% growth to a 1% decline. What growth we see will likely be renovation, as newly formed congregations move into vacated retail space or reoccupy church buildings abandoned by other faiths. As the housing market slowly continues a growth trend in the coming years, we may also see more expendable income for contributing to new community houses of worship. However, like retail, it is possible that more religious congregations will meet online or use other forms of communication. The lending environment continues to be a challenge for many congregations. Establishing a capital campaign is becoming increasingly common. Many churches are seeing tremendous declines in contributions and tithes. More parishioners are relying on their houses of worship to provide guidance and assistance, further stretching thin resources. New methods for charitable giving, including online giving and donation collections, are empowering religious organizations. Churches are becoming smarter about attracting parishioners who are drawn in by facilities and the church building itself. Energy efficiency, green sustainability and long-lasting quality are becoming top features many congregations want in worship houses. GDP Population Income Personal savings rate Religious Construction Put in Place

16 16 2nd Quarter 2014 Report Public Safety Public safety construction is expected to decrease 1% in According to the U.S. Department of Justice Federal Prison System FY 2014 Congressional Budget report, Inmate overcrowding continues to be a major concern and challenge for the BOP. Thus far in FY 2013, the federal inmate population totals 217,929, and systemwide crowding is at 37 percent over rated capacity, with 54 percent and 44 percent at high and medium-security institutions, respectively (data as of March 21, 2013). Additionally, while federal incarceration rates are increasing, state and local rates are down. This is due largely to changes in sentencing and corrections policies. About 1 in every 35 adult residents in the United States was under some form of correctional supervision at year-end 2012, the lowest rate observed since (Bureau of Justice Statistics, December 2013) At year-end 2012, the combined U.S. adult correctional systems supervised about 6,937,600 offenders, down by about 51,000 offenders during the year. (Ibid.) The president denied a request by the Pentagon seeking to overhaul the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Privately managed secure facilities are increasing. Private corporations now operate 5% of the 5,000 prisons and jails in the U.S. The private prison industry is growing at a rate of 30% per year. CM at-risk or design-build arrangements will increase. P3s overcome shortfalls in public financing. Population Government spending Incarceration rate Nonresidential structure investment Public Safety Construction Put in Place

17 FMI s Construction Outlook 17 Amusement and Recreation Although there are a number of notable large projects in the works, construction for amusement and recreation markets is expected to wind up 2014 with no growth, ending the year around $14.5 billion for construction put in place. New stadiums are increasingly more like new towns, as the development includes mixed-use venues in addition to the anchor sport for the stadium. This approach can often revitalize a decaying part of town, but it also offers more ongoing work and growth. That is the approach that is required to get the public to support the new arena, both with its allegiance to the team and with its tax dollars. In the case of the Atlanta Braves, there will be a significant input of funds from the team, which helps demonstrate its long-term commitment as well. While large projects dominate the news, smaller projects for amusement and recreation may include baseball fields in towns and smaller venues as part of school projects, especially for higher education. A new, privately funded indoor arena was recently announced by the partnership of AEG and MGM Resorts International. The Las Vegas arena will have 20,000 seats and is expected to cost $375 million. The Atlanta Braves have announced they will build a new stadium using a public-private partnership. The San Francisco 49ers have recently broken ground on their new $850 million stadium expected to be completed in 2014 in time for the new season. The Minnesota Vikings $1.1 billion project has been approved by the state senate. Casino plans are underway in a number of states, including New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Florida and Ohio, with some investors coming from offshore. Public/private venture planned for the campus of UNLV includes a 50,000-seat, domed stadium but still waiting approvals and taxpayer votes on plan to allow the project to be tax-free. Competition in the gaming sector will draw business away from some existing gambling centers, such as Atlantic City, as well as other public arenas. Income Personal savings rate Unemployment rate Amusement and Recreation Construction Put in Place

18 18 2nd Quarter 2014 Report Transportation Transportation construction is one of the few areas that continues to see solid growth and will improve 7% in 2014 to $44.4 billion. While reauthorization or a replacement of MAP-21 is still uncertain, the president s 2015 budget proposes $73.61 billion for surface transportation spending in fiscal year 2015; most of the proposed funds are directed at highway programs. A sign of the need for updated transportation made the news recently when Vice President Biden compared LaGuardia airport with a third-world country. According to a report from CNN, the Port Authority responded with an announcement that it proposed to spend $27 billion on a 10- year capital plan. (CNN, February 6, 2014) The shale oil boom is also contributing as roads and railroads are being shored up to transport product and materials to and from the oil fields. On February 26, 2014, the president announced that the U.S. Department of Transportation is making available $600 million in TIGER competitive grants to fund transportation projects. (White House Press Release) According to the American Association of Railroads April, U.S. rail traffic for the week ending April 12, 2014, with 295,294 total U.S. carloads, up 7.2 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 264,382 units, up 9.3 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 559,676 carloads and intermodal units, up 8.2 percent compared with the same week last year. (April 2014) The FAA Modernization and Reform Act will provide $63.6 billion for the agency s programs between 2012 and The 2013 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.2 percent per year, compared to last year s forecast growth of 2.6 percent per year. High-speed rail is slow to get projects off the ground due to state funding and political resistance. Growth in container ports is recovering from the recession. Intermodal transportation will be the focus of new projects. Population Government spending Transportation funding Transportation Construction Put in Place

19 FMI s Construction Outlook 19 Communication Communications construction dropped 11% in 2013 but is expected to recover 5% in 2014 and remain steady in the coming forecast years. While the rate of cell tower installations may decrease due to most major service providers completing their service expansion, a recent report from Chessiecap notes that there is an increasing demand for small cell networks to cover dead areas and provide improved service in areas where cell towers are prohibited. Chessiecap estimates that this will be a primary driver for engineering and construction in the sector in the next two years. (Chessiecap A Middle Market M&A Update January 2014 ) The latest announcement that AT&T plans to buy Direct TV for around $49 billion will likely change the markets for communications and spur more mergers and acquisitions. AT&T to purchase Direct TV. Mini towers for increasing coverage and spectrum will proliferate rapidly in the next five years. Wireless technology is the fastest-growing area, as telecoms roll out more 4G technologies with smartphones and tablets. Data security is critical for large businesses and governments in the face of potential disasters and threats from hackers and foreign enemies Innovation/technology Global mobility Population Security/regulatory standards Private investment Communication Construction Put in Place $30,000 Millions of Current Dollars $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $

20 20 2nd Quarter 2014 Report Manufacturing Manufacturing construction continues to show signs of sustainable growth with an expected 6% increase for 2014 to $52.4 billion and adding another 8% for 2015 to $56.8 billion. While the outlook for continued steady growth is good, improvements in the economic outlook for durable goods have had difficulty sustaining consistent growth. Nonetheless, orders for durable goods increased in both March and April, up 2.6% in April to $234 billion. Global economic factors, like the cost of energy and transportation as well as political unrest and the need for trained workers in high-tech areas, will continue to tip the balance for locating or relocating to the U.S. The Federal Reserve reports that manufacturing capacity utilization fell slightly in April to 78.6%, up 2.3% over April Reshoring of manufacturing is happening slowly, in part due to availability of lower energy costs. The U.S. Census Bureau Department of Commerce reports that, New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $234.8 billion... This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 2.1 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.8 percent... Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $2.8 billion or 4.0 percent to $74.1 billion. The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business reports, The April PMI registered 54.9 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from March's reading of 53.7 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the 11th consecutive month. ISM Industrial production Capacity utilization Factory orders Durable goods orders Manufacturing inventories Manufacturing Construction Put in Place $30,000 Millions of Current Dollars $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $

21 FMI s Construction Outlook 21 NONBUILDING STRUCTURES Power Our forecast has pulled back from 5% to 3% growth for power industry construction put in place for 2014 with slower growth to continue through Our forecast calls for $86.7 billion in construction put in place for the power industry in With the expiration of the production tax credits (PTC), wind power construction will pick up from projects making it under the line, then lose momentum due to financing concerns. Alternative energy sources will continue to be explored, but the new shale gas boom will continue to provide an alternative and elbow out coal-fired plants for new construction. The cost of new nuclear power will continue to be prohibitive even before regulatory concerns are considered. Updating facilities and the decision to change over to more use of natural gas are both driving new construction and holding off decisions for new plants will continue to be prohibitive even before regulatory concerns are considered. "Since 2008, the refinement of hydraulic fracturing technology has allowed the United States to go from an increasingly dependent buyer of foreign oil to the second-leading producer of oil in the world. (FMI research paper, Skills Shortages in a Booming Market: The Big Oil and Gas Challenge, 2014) In 2008, just 3.8 percent of the total construction workforce was engaged in direct oil and gas construction. By 2012, 6.4 percent nearly double the number from 2008 of that workforce was engaged in direct oil and gas construction. (Ibid.) According to the Annual Energy Outlook 2014, energy consumption, including both purchases from electric power producers and on-site generation, will grow from 3,826 billion kwh in 2012 to 4,954 billion kwh in 2040, an average annual rate of 0.9%. Due to increased manufacturing activity, most growth will come from the industrial sector. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has a proposal out for $7 billion in locally generated renewable energy through power purchase agreements. The $7 billion capacity would be expended for the purchase of energy over a period of 30 years or less from renewable energy plants that are constructed and operated by contractors using private-sector financing. (Renewablesbiz.com, Bill Opalka, Aug. 15, 2012) Consumer electricity demand has been slowing due to more efficient appliances. Growth in renewable energy sources is expected to slow as Production Tax Credits expire. Also, the competitive costs will be more difficult to overcome as shale sources continue to be exploited. Industrial production Population Nonresidential structure investment Power Construction Put in Place