INSIGHT SURVEY CARB LANDSCAPE REPORT

Transcription

1 INSIGHT SURVEY CARB LANDSCAPE REPORT COMPILED: APRIL

2 REPORT OVERVIEW The Carbohydrate Landscape Report (124 pages) provides a dynamic synthesis of primary and secondary research, including extensive interviews with relevant stakeholders and industry experts across the value chain: from organisational bodies to manufacturers, retailers and leading academics. For example, the first-hand feedback includes insights from: Petru Fourie: Agricultural Economist (Inputs/Production) at Grain SA Professor Salome Kruger: Centre of Excellence for Nutrition at North West University Funzani Sundani: Market Research at Grain SA Johan Stapelberg: Owner of Butterfield Bakery Franchise Rudolf Badenhorst: Head of Market Development at Potatoes SA Lufefe Nomjana: Owner of Espinaca township bakery 2

3 REPORT OVERVIEW This comprehensive Carbohydrate Landscape Report examines the carbohydrate industry from a uniquely holistic perspective, providing detailed analysis and insights into the entire value chain: from harvesting to storage, processing, packaging, sales and consumption. SOME KEY QUESTIONS THE REPORT WILL HELP YOU TO ANSWER: For the Wheat, Maize, Potato, and Rice commodities: What are the key factors that are restraining and driving the growth of the local and global markets? What are the local and global supply and production trends and predictions? What are the local and global demand and consumption trends and predictions? What are local and global pricing trends and predictions? What are the local and global import and export trends and predictions? For the Manufacturing and Retail sectors: What were their overall financial performances for 2014? What are their areas of key strategic focus for 2015? What are their footprint and market expansion plans for 2015? In terms of Consumer Insights and Trends: What are the consumption trends between in the following carbohydrate sectors: rice; pasta; mealie meal; bread; potato chips; breakfast cereal; frozen potato products? Has the media hype surrounding a low-carb diet impacted on demand across the various LSM s? What are the local and global expert opinions on the consumer Banting trend? 3

4 SCREENSHOTS FROM REPORT 124 page report filled with detailed charts, graphs, tables and insights 4

5 SAMPLE FROM REPORT: GLOBAL WHEAT SUPPLY AND PRODUCTION World Wheat Production (Million Tons) 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 World Wheat Production (mt) Area expansion in the CIS moderately exceeds the pace of other major growing regions, bolstered by rising local feed needs as well as export demand. After falling by about 3% in 2015/16 from the high level in the previous season, average world yields resume an upward trend in the remainder of the period, increasing by roughly 1% annually. Together with a small rise in area, production is expected to surpass the current year s record by 2018/19 and reach 732m t in the following season, a 2% net gain compared with 2014/15. Source: After a fall in 2015/16, world production to move higher, but gains limited by competition for land from other crops. Although autumn planting conditions have been largely favourable, the 2015/16 world wheat crop is projected to drop below the record levels of the past two seasons. A small increase in harvested areas is assumed, mainly in the US and Argentina, but average yields may not be as good, decreasing overall output. Thereafter, only a modest gain in world planted area is anticipated, constrained by competition from other crops, especially maize and oilseeds.

6 SAMPLE FROM REPORT: LOCAL MAIZE DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION Domestic Maize Consumption ( 000 t) 0 12/13 13/14 14/15 Human Animal Other It is projected that marginal increases in demand will continue in the 2014/15 MY (Market Year), as South Africa s economy is expected to grow by less than three percent in 2015, due to labour unrest, upward inflationary pressures and electricity constraints. The commercial demand for corn for food increased on average by 2% per year the past 15 years, while the commercial demand for feed corn increased on average by 3% per year. Source: %20Republic%20of_ pdf The total local demand for maize is projected at tons. This includes tons processed for human consumption, tons processed for animal and industrial consumption, tons for gristing, tons withdrawn by producers, tons released to end-consumers, a balancing figure of tons (net receipts and net dispatches) and a deficit of tons. 6

7 R per 10kg SAMPLE FROM REPORT: LOCAL AVERAGE WEEKLY POTATO PRICES Local Average Weekly Potato Price all markets and all classes 5 0 J J F F MM A A MM J J J J A A S S O O N N D D Prices may still experience further upward pressure over the short term. January till end of March: Prices were under downward pressure. The rainfall experienced during the last week of March resulted in less volumes going to the markets which pushed prices higher. Normally after Easter prices will decline slightly. Thereafter prices will move sideways over the medium term. April/May/June: average prices will be higher than 2014 as a result of drought. Factors that could play a role in the market place 2015: Rainfall can result in upward pressure on prices when producers cannot lift potatoes see last week of March. Lower temperatures may improve the quality of potatoes (better keeping ability) resulting in higher prices. Source: 7

8 SAMPLE FROM REPORT: GLOBAL RICE SUPPLY AND PRODUCTION World Rice Production 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 Production volume (million tons) Rice Production by Country (main producers) 9% 10% 8% 5% 28% 40% China India Indonesia Bangladesh Vietnam Thailand A poor seasonal output in Asia is mainly behind a 1.6 million ton decline in global paddy production in Production shortfall remains forecast to arise from cuts in Asia, where various important producers have been negatively impacted by a combination of late and insufficient rains and/or floods. Global rice output is projected to trend higher in the five years to 2019/20, but the rate of increase will be slower than in the past amid likely limited growth in China. Growth will moderate significantly owing to an expected steep drop in China s purchases of white rice. Thailand is likely to remain the world s top exporter throughout the medium term. Source: 8

9 SAMPLE FROM REPORT: WOOLWORTHS FOOTPRINT AND EXPANSION Woolworths Food has 302 stores throughout South Africa, 60 Engen stores and 25 stores in the rest of Africa. Woolworths Holdings Limited acquired one of the oldest and most prominent department stores in Australia, David Jones. The acquisition is expected to create significant value for a wide range of stakeholders. Woolworths has recently completed the process of buying back franchise stores in Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and Ghana. Through this acquisition they have achieved critical mass on which they can leverage processes and systems within their supply chain. Woolworths vs Market Growth (3mma) Woolworths has a vision to grow their already meaningful business in Africa to become a more substantial contributor to the group sales and profit Woolworths intends to open 8 new stores in the next three years and will aggressively seek new space and invest capital in store extensions and modernisations Woolworths price movement CPI (Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages) Woolworths sales growth (3mma) Growth in Nielsen Defined Basket (3mma) Source:

10 SAMPLE FROM REPORT: LOCAL BREAD INDUSTRY/CONSUMER TRENDS TRENDS Packaged/industrial bread in South Africa is experiencing a decline in volume sales in comparison to Rising input costs have resulted in prices rising above the rate of inflation, thus hampering consumer demand. Some price-sensitive consumers are reverting back to products that offer value for money, such as mealie meal. Mega-trend: Manifestation example: Mainstream or niche: Examples of associated price premiums: Between January 2014 and January 2015; Health High fibre Low GI Mainstream +65% above Domestic wheat price up 36.32% Indulgence Commercial farm bread Seed bread Niche +105% above Brown bread 700g price up 8.66% Convenience Sliced, prepacked bread Mainstream +37% above White bread 700g price up 8.87% COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE Pioneer Foods continues to lead the category in 2014 with a value share of 26%, closely followed by Tiger Consumer Brands. Artisanal products hold third position overall with a value share of 18%. Premier Foods ranks fourth with a 15% share. The positions of the three leading manufacturers can be attributed to the strength of their respective packaged/industrial bread brands, namely Sasko, Albany and Blue Ribbon. PROSPECTS Health is a key trend within baked goods in South Africa. Consumers, and particularly those in middle to upper LSM groups, will pay higher prices for products that offer health benefits such as a low GI (Glycaemic Index), a high fibre content or fortification with added vitamins. However, such products also carry a higher unit price than white bread which is why, combined with a taste preference for white bread, lower LSM groups continue to support white bread. Source: ; % pdf; 10 ng%20to%20south%20african%20consumers%20from%20a%20food%20preference%20trend%20perspective.pdf

11 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary: Wheat 1.1 Key facts regarding Local and Global Wheat Industry 1.2 Drivers and Restraints in Local Wheat Industry: Wheat and Flour 1.3 Drivers and Restraints in Local Wheat Industry: Bread and Pasta 1.4 Dashboard illustrating Key Statistical Trends in Local and Global Wheat Industry Maize 1.5 Key facts regarding Local and Global Maize Industry 1.6 Drivers and Restraints in Local Maize Industry: Maize and Mielie Meal 1.7 Dashboard illustrating Key Statistical Trends in Local and Global Maize Industry Potato 1.8 Key facts regarding Local and Global Potato Industry 1.9 Drivers and Restraints in Local Potato Industry 1.10 Dashboard illustrating Key Statistical Trends in Local and Global Potato Industry Rice 1.11 Key facts regarding Local and Global Rice Industry 1.12 Drivers and Restraints in Local Rice Industry 1.13 Dashboard illustrating Key Statistical Trends in Local and Global Rice Industry 11

12 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2. Wheat: Global Wheat Overview 2.1 Global Supply and Demand Trends and Predictions 2.2 Global Supply and Production 2.3 Global Demand and Consumption 2.4 Global Trade Local Wheat Overview 2.5 Local Supply and Demand Trends 2.6 Local Production and Consumption 2.7 Local Price Trends 2.8 Local Imports and Exports 2.9 Local Wheat Value Chain 2.10 Local Wheat Producers SWOT 2.11 Local Milling Industry SWOT 2.12 Interview with Petru Fourie: Agricultural Economist at Grain SA 12

13 TABLE OF CONTENTS 3. Maize: Global Maize Overview 3.1 Global Supply and Demand Trends and Predictions 3.2 Global Supply and Production 3.3 Global Demand and Consumption 3.4 Global Trade 3.5 Global Price Trends Local Maize Overview 3.6 Local Supply and Production 3.7 Local Demand and Consumption 3.8 Local Price Trends 3.9 Local Imports and Exports 3.10 Local Maize Value Chain 3.11 Interview with Funzani Sundani: Market Research at Grain SA 13

14 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4. Potatoes: Global Potato Overview 4.1 Global Potato Overview Local Potato Overview 4.2 Local Production and Consumption Trends 4.3 Local Average Weekly Potato Prices 4.4 Local Market Happenings: Sales Volumes 4.5 Local Market Happenings: Import of Frozen French Fries 4.6 Local Market Happenings: Impact of Xenophobic Riots 4.7 Local Price Trends 4.8 Local Imports and Exports 4.9 Local Potato Value Chain 4.10 Interview with Rudolf Badenhorst from Potatoes SA 14

15 TABLE OF CONTENTS 5. Rice: Global Rice Overview 5.1 Global Supply and Production 5.2 Global Demand and Consumption 5.3 Global Trade 5.4 Global Price Trends Local Rice Overview 5.5 Local Production and Consumption Trends 5.6 Local Imports and Exports 5.7 Local Rice Value Chain 15

16 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6. Manufacturers: Premier 6.1 Brands 6.2 Financial Summary and Strategy 6.3 Footprint and Market Pioneer 6.4 Brands 6.5 Financial Summary and Strategy 6.6 Food Divisions 6.7 Footprint and Market Foodcorp 6.8 Brands 6.9 Financial Summary and Strategy Tiger Brands 6.10 Brands 6.11 Financial Summary and Strategy 6.12 Grains Division and Nigeria Acquisition 16

17 TABLE OF CONTENTS 7. Retailers: Woolworths 7.1 Financial Summary and Strategy 7.2 Footprint and Expansion Spar 7.3 Financial Summary and Strategy 7.4 Footprint and Expansion Pick n Pay 7.5 Financial Summary and Strategy 7.6 Footprint and Expansion Shoprite 7.7 Financial Summary and Strategy 7.8 Footprint and Expansion Massmart 7.9 Financial Summary and Strategy 7.10 Footprint and Expansion 17

18 TABLE OF CONTENTS 8. Consumer Trends: 8.1 Consumption Trends Global Consumer Trends Reflected in South African Food Sector 2015 Bread 8.3 Companies and Brands 8.4 Trends, Competitive Landscape and Prospects 8.5 Trends and Interview with Brand Manager of leading SA Bread Manufacturer 8.6 Interview with Lufefe Nomjana - owner of Espinaca township bakery 8.7 Interview with Johan Stapelberg owner of Butterfield Bakery 8.8 SWOT Analysis of Local Bakers Pasta 8.9 Companies and Brands 8.10 Trends, Competitive Landscape and Prospects Rice 8.11 Companies and Brands 8.12 Trends, Competitive Landscape and Prospects Mielie Meal 8.13 Companies and Brands 8.14 Trends, Competitive Landscape and Prospects Potatoes 8.15 Companies and Brands 8.16 Trends, Competitive Landscape and Prospects Topical Carbohydrate Consumer Trend: Banting 8.17 Low-Carb Banting 8.18 Interview with Professor Salome Kruger from North West University 18

19 COMPANY OVERVIEW Insight Survey is a South African B2B market research company with almost 10 years of heritage, focusing on business-to business (B2B) market research to ensure smarter, more-profitable business decisions are made with reduced investment risk. We offer B2B market research solutions to help you to successfully improve or expand your business, enter new markets, launch new products or better understand your internal or external environment. 19

20 COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE Our bespoke Competitive Business Intelligence Research can help give you the edge in a global marketplace, empowering your business to overcome industry challenges quickly and effectively, and enabling you to realise your potential and achieve your vision. From strategic overviews of your business s competitive environment through to specific competitor profiles, our customised Competitive Intelligence Research is designed to meet your unique needs. OUR RESEARCH SOLUTIONS Competitor pricing research Store visits and store checks Competitor interviews Customer interviews Company website analysis Governmental held records

21 ORDER FORM COMPANY DETAILS Company Name: Physical Address: Town/City: ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS (1.) Complete the order form and back to (2.) An invoice will be generated and ed (3.) The report will be ed upon receipt of payment or when proof of payment has been provided (4.) All prices exclude 14 % VAT. Country: Purchaser Name: (name to appear on invoice) Purchaser address: Telephone number: Postal Code: VAT number: CONFIRMATION: I/we wish to order this publication (please tick) Title of Publication Total Ex Vat Insight Survey Carbohydrate Landscape Report 2015 R45,000 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am authorised to order this publication on behalf of the company and agree to the payment terms. Client (Print Name) Signature Capacity Date 21

22 CONTACT DETAILS Telephone: +27 (0) Physical Address: Contact: Website: 3 rd Floor Business Centre 1 Bridgeway Road Cape Town info@insightsurvey.co.za