The Coming of Age for Seniors Housing Presented to: NCREIF

Transcription

1 The Coming of Age for Seniors Housing Presented to: NCREIF Presented by: Beth Burnham Mace AEW Capital Management November 14, 2013 This material is intended for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. The information and opinions presented in this material have been prepared internally and/or obtained from sources which AEW believes to be reliable, however AEW does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information. Opinions expressed reflect prevailing market conditions at the time this material was completed and are subject to change. Neither this material, nor any of its contents, may be used for any purpose without the consent and knowledge of AEW.

2 Today s Presentation The Coming of Age for Seniors Housing Defining Seniors Housing What Is The Market Opportunity? What Are The Risks? 2

3 AEW Seniors Housing Experience Since 1997, AEW has acquired, repositioned and/or developed approximately 13,027 seniors housing units with a gross property value of approximately $1.9 billion 1 Broad platform with experienced seniors housing team Proprietary research data Strong relationships with seniors housing operators and lenders Currently, AEW manages approximately 5,029 seniors housing units 1 As of June 30,

4 Today s Seniors Housing is not your Grandparents Nursing Homes Today s seniors housing is a mix of real estate, hospitality and care 4

5 Aging Process and Housing Options Understanding Demand RETIREMENT INCREASING PHYSICAL/ MENTAL IMPAIRMENT PHASE 1: LIFESTYLE 65+ PHASE 2: 1 ADL 75+ Retirement Spouse Dies/ Some Physical Impairment PHASE 3: 2 3 ADLs 80+ Stay in Home Retirement Community More Physical Impairment In Home Care Live with Relative Independent Living (IL) Continuing Care Retirement Community Assisted Living (AL) Live with Relative IL/AL RESIDENT S CHOICE RELATIVE S CHOICE PHASE 4: CONGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT 85+ Dementia/ Memory Loss Assisted Living/Skilled Nursing Facility Memory Care (MC) DOCTOR S CHOICE AL/MC PHASE 5: 5+ ADLs AND/OR 24 HR. SKILLED NURSING 85+ Serious Medical Problems Hospital/Rehab. Nursing Home Hospitalization/ Hospice 5 Source: AEW Research

6 Continuum of Seniors Housing Options WHERE AEW INVESTS IN SENIORS HOUSING Multifamily Age Restricted Independent Living Assisted Living Memory Care Nursing Homes Hospitals Nursing Homes Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Services Services Services Services Services ADL Care ADL Care ADL Care ADL Care IADL Care IADL Care IADL Care Nursing/ Dementia Nursing Care Medical Care Care (Acute Care) Source: AEW Research 6

7 Rents Vary by Care Segment AVERAGE MONTHLY RENT BY CARE SEGMENT AS OF 1Q 2012 Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service 7

8 Why Seniors Housing: The Market Opportunity Seniors housing and care s market value is approximately $270B and growing Seniors housing private investment returns have outperformed other commercial real estate property investments during the past one, five and eight year time horizons Three of the 10 largest REITs are now health care REITs The seniors housing sector is better understood today. Market penetration rates and product acceptance is rising, creating an additional untapped source of demand from seniors and their adult children The affluence and influence of adult children as decision makers for their elderly parents is an important demand driver for the sector today; today s baby boomers will be tomorrow s residents eventually 8

9 Why Seniors Housing: The Market Opportunity The seniors housing sector has shown itself to be recession resilient. While occupancy rates fell and have since recovered, rent growth remained positive throughout the entire cycle Residents have various funding sources including their own household income and net worth, home sale proceeds and financial support from their adult children Strong outlook for seniors housing market fundamentals For a real estate portfolio, seniors housing: Captures a high-income stream Provides an asset type less dependent on economic cycle Takes value-add risk versus opportunistic 9

10 NCREIF Property Level Total Returns Seniors housing total returns surpassed apartment, retail, industrial and office returns on a 1, 5 and 8 year basis ANNUALIZED TOTAL RETURNS (%) 1, 3, 5 AND 8 YEAR PERIODS JUNE 30, 2013 Percent Seniors Housing Apartment Retail Industrial Office Total Year 3 Years 5 Years 8 Years Source: AEW Research, NCREIF; Note that as of the second quarter of 2013, nine managers reported data to NCREIF on 67 stabilized seniors housing properties worth $2.2 billion 10

11 Trends That Are Driving Demand Seniors reverse migrate as infirmities increase need vs. choice Adult child is key decision maker; one demand driver is where adult child lives Senior s health is improving due to better healthcare access More seniors living alone, resulting in increased demand for services historically provided by spouses or other family members Market penetration and product acceptance continues to rise Demographics: significant growth in 80 plus population cohort Caregiver support ratio is shrinking from 7 potential caregivers for every person 80 plus to 4 to 1 by Source: AEW Research

12 Births Demographic Cycle in the 20th Century A surge of the 80+ cohort is about to happen The Baby Boomers are important influencers of the decisions their aging parents make regarding lifestyle choices and living accommodations 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 (000s) Boomer Grandparents 1919 and prior (94 and older) Baby Bust Parents 1935 to 1945 (68 to 78) Baby Boomers (49 to 67) Baby Bust (38 to 48) Echo Boomers 1976 present (Under 37) Births Aged 80 Years 2,500 2, Values in parentheses are ages today Source: U.S. Census and AEW Research 12

13 Caregiver Support Ratio Shrinking Number of Caregivers for the Elderly Caregiver support ratio the number of potential caregivers aged for each person aged 80 and older (AARP Study) 2010: 7:1 2030: 4:1 Baby boomers aging out of caregiver cohort and shifting into elderly cohort Fertility rates have fallen Average number of children has declined from 3.1 among women aged in 2010 to 2.0 among women who will be in that age group in

14 Through 2012 and 2013, Seniors Housing Supply Has Largely Been In Check Supply remains relatively restrained, but is picking up NEW SUPPLY OF SENIOR HOUSING ( ) INDEPENDENT LIVING AND ASSISTED LIVING UNITS DELIVERED BY YEAR, MAP 100 MARKETS New Supply of Seniors Housing ( ) Independent Living and Assisted Living Construction Delivered by Year Most of the supply in the late 1990s was assisted living Much of the new supply today is memory care Number of Units 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Source: NIC/ASHA Seniors Housing Construction Trends Report

15 Vacancy Rates by Property Type For all property types, vacancy rates are at their lowest levels since at least 2009 From peak levels, vacancy rates have fallen: Industrial: 290 basis points Multifamily: 280 basis points NICMAP : 270 basis points NICMAP 31: 240 basis points Q VACANCY RATES FOR SENIORS HOUSING AND OTHER PROPERTY TYPES(%) Percent Retail Industrial Office Multifamily NIC MAP 31 NICMAP Office: 170 basis points Source: AEW Research, NICMAP, CBRE EA 15

16 Property Type Rent Comparisons Both independent and assisted living properties never experienced negative rent growth and remain at peak rent levels RENT COMPARISON BY PROPERTY TYPE, AS OF Q Apartment rents fell 6% at the national level from peak to trough, but are now at new highs Currently At Peak Levels Currently at Peak Levels Retail, industrial and office rents remain well below peak levels Independent Living Assisted Living Retail Office Industrial Multifamily Percent Currently Below Peak Year Over Year Change Source: AEW Research, NICMAP, CBRE EA 16

17 Seniors Housing: Recent Trends and Observations An improving economy has supported an increase in move in rates and occupancy levels, as has rising household net worth and expanding penetration rates. Seniors housing market fundamentals continued to generally improve, with rising occupancy rates, improving absorption trends, moderate construction and rising rents. The average age of a new resident has been increasing, as move in decisions have been delayed and acuity levels are rising. Seniors and adult children are seeking one stop shopping for their aging parents, preferring one location for them to age in place. This has increased demand for projects that offer a full continuum of care. Seniors housing was a resilient real estate sector during the economic recession. Need based assisted living product generally held up better than independent living product. REITS remain active buyers of seniors housing portfolios; cap rates for welllocated properties with strong operators are at historic lows. 17

18 Key Considerations Operator/Partner Experience, History and Performance Strategy Position in the Marketplace Stabilized Property vs Renovation vs New Construction Local and Primary Market Area Conditions Supply and Demand, Vacancy Rates, New Development Pricing Replacement Cost/Price Per Unit Cap Rates Exit Strategy/Market Liquidity Rents/Affordability/Ability to Pay 18

19 Seniors Housing Market Primary Risks Seniors housing is an operating business and choosing, incentivizing, and managing joint venture relationships with partners and/or operators is critical to the success of the investment Investors need to develop an understanding of the demographics and market fundamentals to ensure that the property attributes are suitable for the resident profile Asset type distinction is becoming blurry with traditional independent living properties offering assisted living options. Hence, detailed attention needs to be paid to determine the competitive set In a difficult market environment, it is important to focus on necessity based (vs. choice based) options 19

20 Conclusions Strong outlook for market fundamentals, but supply is ramping up in some markets for some property types Solid and relatively stable investment returns Increasing presence of institutional investors REITS are active: continued operator consolidation A range of investment strategies that potentially also diversify a multi asset portfolio A variety of investment options are available Experienced, quality operator is key to mitigating risks and achieving success through various cycles 20