NCREIF Research Committee Meeting Fairmont Hotel, Chicago

Transcription

1 Seniors Housing Overview & Insights NCREIF Research Committee Meeting Fairmont Hotel, Chicago July 1, 2010

2 National Investment Center (NIC) Working to increase transparency for investors in the Seniors Housing & Care Industry Conferences and Events Research NIC MAP NIC Mission Statement To advance the quality of seniors housing and care by facilitating informed investment decisions through best in class data, research, networking events and professional education. 2

3 Seniors Housing Properties ASSISTED LIVING (AL) NURSING CARE (NC) INDEPENDENT LIVING (IL) SENIOR APARTMENTS ACTIVE ADULT HOUSING SERVICES SENIORS HOUSING 3

4 Institutional Seniors Housing U.S. Market Size Seniors Housing & Care Market Estimates by Property Type; Source: NIC MAP Property Type Number of Units* Number of Properties* Majority Independent d Living (IL) 812,500 3,840 Majority Assisted Living (AL) 475,500 6,315 Majority Nursing Care (NC) 1,491,000 10,975 Total 2,779,000 21,130 *Estimates representative of market rate properties with at least 25 units. 4

5 Seniors Housing Ownership Structures Property Ownership Structures; Source: NIC MAP, Public Company Filings Ownership of the Seniors Housing Units in the US: U.S.: Public Operating Companies own 10% Public REITs own 9% Non Profit entities own 32% 5

6 Seniors Housing Ownership Structures Property Ownership Structures; Source: NIC MAP Chain Size Percent of UnitsOwned (based on control of operations) Single Owner 23% Chain (2 9 properties) 33% Chain (10+ properties) 44% 100% 6

7 Seniors Housing Capital Sources Debt Equity REITs GSEs (IL, AL) HUD(AL, NC) Commercial Credit Regional Banks Corporate Bonds Tax exempt Bonds (Non profits) CMBS Institutional: valueadd, core plus; separate accounts or commingled funds; joint venture structures TICs Foreign Capital Healthcare Investors Public Equity Triple Net Taxable REIT Subsidiaries (new) Primarily equity but some debt capital 7

8 Select Private Equity Participants Firm Headquarters Property Types* AEW Capital Management Boston, MA IL, AL, CCRC The Blackstone Group New York, NY IL, AL CRP Seniors Housing Washington, DC IL, AL, CCRC The Carlyle Group New York, NY NC Fillmore Capital Partners, LLC San Francisco, CA NC Formation Capital, LLC Atlanta, GA NC Fortress Investment Group LLC New York, NY IL, AL, CCRC GI Partners Menlo Park, CA NC Harrison Street Real Estate Capital, LLC Chicago, IL IL,AL Heitman LLC Chicago, IL IL, AL Intercontinental Real Estate Corporation Boston, MA IL,AL Javelin Capital Partners Dallas, TX NC JER Partners Washington, DC NC Kensington Realty Advisors/KMF Senior Housing Investors, LLC Chicago, IL IL,AL,CCRC Prudential Real Estate Investors Parsippany, NJ IL,AL,CCRC Wakefield Capital Management, Inc Bethesda, MD IL,AL Wl Walton Street Capital, LLC Chicago, IL IL,AL,CCRC * CCRC : Continuing Care Retirement Community 8

9 Rents & Margins Compared to Hotels Average Daily Rent (ADR) and Margins; Source: STR, NIC MAP, State of Seniors Housing 2010 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Average Dil Daily Rent Operating Margins 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Seniors Housing Hotels Seniors Housing Hotels 9

10 Operating Margins Similar For IL and AL Operating Margins by Community Type; Source: State of Seniors Housing

11 Seniors Housing Supply/Demand Trends Seniors Housing Occupancy, Supply and Demand Trends; Source: NIC MAP 31 Units Absorp ption & Invent tory Growth 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 2,000 3,000 Supply Demand Occupancy 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q % 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% Occupancy 11

12 Seniors Housing Rent Growth Still Positive YOY Asking Rent Growth Trends; Sources: MBA Quarterly Data Book; PPR; NIC MAP 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% Seniors Housing Office Multifamily 6% 8% 10% 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 12

13 Seniors Housing Compared to CRE YOY Change in Occupancy and Rent Growth (4Q08 4Q09); Sources: MBA, STR, PPR and NIC MAP 4% 2% Annual Occupancy Change (Percentage Point) 0% Annual Rent Growth (Percent Change) -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Retail* Office* Multi-Family* Hotels Majority IL Majority AL 13

14 IL Trades Higher than MF Capitalization Rates and Risk Premium; Sources: MBA, PPR and NIC Risk Premium (Right) Independent Living (Left) Multifamily (Left) 10% 300 8% 250 6% 4% Basis Points (bps) 2% 50 0% 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

15 Seniors Housing Total Returns NPI, Apartment and Seniors Housing Total Returns; Source: NCREIF, AEW Research Total Returns (%) for the Period Ending 3/31/10 / Total NPI Total Apartment Total Stabilized Seniors Housing* 1st Qtr th Qtr One Year Three Years Five Years Six Years *Based on 64 properties in the NCREIF database 15

16 Prospective Next Steps Identify Additional Data Contributors Develop NCREIF Seniors Housing Index Establish Regular Article in NPI Quarterly Report Other Initiatives RCA Standard Chart of Accounts 16

17 NIC Contact Information Chuck Harry Research Director, NIC Mike Hargrave VicePresident President, NICMAP