June RBWM Investor Presentation Investor Update 2015

Transcription

1 June 2015 RBWM Investor Presentation Investor Update 2015

2 Important notice and forward-looking statements Important notice The information set out in this presentation and subsequent discussion does not constitute a public offer for the purposes of any applicable law or an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to purchase any securities or other financial instruments or any recommendation in respect of such securities or instruments. Forward-looking statements This presentation and subsequent discussion may contain projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, opinions, prospects, results, returns and forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, capital position and business of the Group (together, forward-looking statements ). Any such forward-looking statements are not a reliable indicator of future performance, as they may involve significant assumptions and subjective judgements which may or may not prove to be correct and there can be no assurance that any of the matters set out in forward-looking statements are attainable, will actually occur or will be realised or are complete or accurate. Forward-looking statements are statements about the future and are inherently uncertain and generally based on stated or implied assumptions. The assumptions may prove to be incorrect and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors, many of which are outside the control of the Group. Actual achievements, results, performance or other future events or conditions may differ materially from those stated, implied and/or reflected in any forward-looking statements due to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors (including without limitation those which are referable to general market conditions or regulatory changes). Any such forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs, expectations and opinions of the Group at the date the statements are made, and the Group does not assume, and hereby disclaims, any obligation or duty to update them if circumstances or management s beliefs, expectations or opinions should change. For these reasons, recipients should not place reliance on, and are cautioned about relying on, any forward-looking statements. Additional detailed information concerning important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is available in our 1Q15 Interim Management Statement and Annual Report and Accounts. This presentation contains non-gaap financial information. The primary non-gaap financial measure we use is adjusted performance which is computed by adjusting reported results for the year-on-year effects of foreign currency translation differences and significant items which distort year-on-year comparisons. Significant items are those items which management and investors would ordinarily identify and consider separately when assessing performance in order to better understand the underlying trends in the business. Reconciliation of non-gaap financial measurements to the most directly comparable measures under GAAP is provided in the reconciliations of non-gaap financial measures supplement available at 2

3 RBWM Key strategic priorities Key messages Principal RBWM financial outlook 1 Capital accretive Consistently strong returns, accretive to Group RoE RoRWA excl. Associates 5.4% 4.8% 6.3% Sustainable high quality revenue Client base positioned towards affluent customers High quality asset book with low LICs Repositioned the business for conduct risk E Diversified revenue base Revenue sources broadly spread across products and segments, USDbn 2 Revenue 24.0 Interest rate sensitivity Strong deposit franchise Group value Business will benefit as interest rates rise Supports a stable and diversified core funding base for the Group Shared infrastructure generates economies of scale Global footprint enhances brand visibility Branch services support other Global Businesses Operating expenses 15.7 LICs 1.8 PBT 6.9 CER 65.4% RWA Total RBWM, USDbn 2013 Adjusted PBT: Of which: US run-off portfolio Principal RBWM Financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at average exchange rates except 2017 which is on 1Q 2015 average rates 2. Includes associates 3

4 RBWM Investment Case RBWM is now a simpler business, delivering sustainable, diversified revenues. Business transformation Principal RBWM Revenue and PBT 1 Principal RBWM Revenue by region 1 Simpler portfolio Simplified our portfolio with 59 disposals / closures of business lines or markets USDbn Revenue PBT MENA North America 4% 8% Latin America 19% Consistent organisation Implemented a common organisation design and target operating model Europe 33% Reduced headcount by over 16,000 FTE 2 Asia 36% Reduced costs Principal RBWM financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at average exchange rates 2. Number excludes impact of disposals (c.10k FTE reduction) 4

5 RBWM Investment Case Through and Advance, we are able to attract an affluent client base, with higher revenue per customer. Customers and markets RBWM GPB Close to 50 million customers worldwide, served through a consistent global proposition model Significant domestic scale in two home markets, Hong Kong and UK Positioned towards affluent customers Customer base compared to market Market 2,5 Advance Personal 8% Existing customers 3 Revenue per customer 18% New customers 3 6x 24% Selected markets 4 % Market 5 France 7% c. 50% Canada 17% c. 30% UAE 3% c. 20% Europe Asia Middle East North America HSBC customer base China 2% c. 80% Geographical distribution of customers by segment (Sep ) Latin America A strong local market share 1 in five further priority markets Focused on developing affluent segments in other priority markets Customer revenues by segment 1x 2x Personal Advance Advance 1. Deposit market share > 4% as at Dec. 2. Australia, Canada, China, France, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, UAE, UK US: Source: Datamonitor 3. Existing customers as at Sep ; New customers acquired within 1Q15 4. Selected examples only. In some countries neither HSBC nor the market have a high proportion of clients. E.g. Turkey (1% Market, c.4% customer base) 5. / Advance estimated as % of banked individuals holding USD 100,000 / USD 50,000 or more in liquid assets; Source: Datamonitor 5

6 RBWM Investment Case Conduct risk is redefining how retail banks engage with and serve their customers. We have proactively repositioned the business for this UK customer redress and CCA provisions have grown to a similar size as credit losses on our lending book in Numerous actions to significantly reduce conduct risk starting in 2012 USDm Credit and conduct risk cost Principal RBWM LICs 1 UK customer redress / CCA provisions 2 3,274 2,737 2,624 2,522 1,751 1,789 1,560 2 Removed the formulaic link between product sales and remuneration: staff are paid on a discretionary basis Simplified our product shelf (c.30% reduction in retail products as of vs. 2012) Addressed pro-actively the Fair Value Exchange (FVE) between customers and shareholders Implemented new sales quality monitoring, including mystery shopping and strengthened assurance programme Deployed new investment product risk framework to better match products with clients risk profile We believe that the repositioning work is largely behind us All figures are sourced from 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and Annual Report and Accounts & Data Pack 1. Reported basis figure corresponds to RBWM (total) reported LIC less USD7.9bn related to US CRS and US run-off 2. includes a provision arising from the ongoing review of compliance with the Consumer Credit Act in the UK of USD568m 6

7 RBWM Investment Case and we are maintaining our credit discipline Example RBWM UK. PRA stress tests: Projected cumulative three-year impairment charge rates on UK household mortgage lending in the stress 1,2,3 PRA stress tests: Projected cumulative three-year impairment charge rates on UK household non-mortgage lending in the stress 1,2 % % 4.5% 25% 4.0% 3.5% 20% 3.0% 2.5% 15% 2.0% 1.5% 10% 1.0% 5% 0.5% 0.0% LBG Co-op San UK RBS Nationwide Barclays HSBC 0% Barclays Co-op LBG San UK RBS Nationwide HSBC Source: Stress testing the UK banking system: results, Bank of England, Dec, page Data sources: Participating banks FDSF data submissions, Bank of England analysis and calculations 2. Cumulative impairment charge rates = (three-year total impairment charge) / (average gross on balance sheet exposure), where the denominator is a simple average of 2013, and 2015 year-end positions. The HSBC impairment charge is calculated by first converting each component to sterling using exchange rates consistent with the stress scenario 3. Includes retail buy-to-let portfolios 7

8 RBWM Investment Case The repositioning impacted the rate of revenue growth in 2013 and, but we are confident the quality of revenues is improving Principal RBWM revenue progress 1Q11 to 1Q15 1 USD Design and policy (2012) Implementation (2013) Implementation () Business Risk Review New Risk Profiling tool New global policy to protect Potentially Vulnerable Clients Global Product Range Review First phase of new sales Incentive Frameworks 2 Global Sales Quality Standards Global Mystery Shopping Fair Value Exchange Second phase of new sales Incentive Frameworks 2 Updated Financial Planning Standards 0.3% 3.4% YoY 5 3.3% CAGR 4 CAGR 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Principal RBWM financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at Mar 2015 exchange rates 2. 1Q13: Global Wealth Incentive Framework (GWIF) globally, and Retail Bank Incentive Framework (RBIF) in Canada, USA and UK; 1Q14: GWIF and RBIF in all other markets 3. FY10-FY12 CAGR based on average exchange rates 4. FY12-FY14 CAGR based on average exchange rates 5. 1Q15 vs 1Q14 y/y growth 8

9 RBWM Investment Case... and there are signs that the repositioning is leading to improved customer experience Example RBWM Mexico. Conduct Agenda Business performance Q1 Q In 2013-, a new incentive framework was implemented across the Group, remunerating staff for meeting customer needs Following an initial decline as we adjusted to the new framework, product sales and revenue have been steadily increasing over the past year Revenues 1 Sales Volumes 2 +3% +40% +129% Implementation of the Conduct Agenda has resulted in an improved customer experience and a better reputation for the bank Q1 Q Latin American Retail Bank of the Year 2015 : HSBC Mexico Cards (k) Other lending (USDm) Reported drivers of customer recommendation 1 Customer recommendation 3 Customers feel valued HSBC Banamex Banorte BBVA Santander HSBC Advice is relevant to customer needs Customers are treated fairly Competitor 1 Poor customer service / understanding Reputation declining High complaint volumes Competitor 2 Poor relationship manager service levels Increasing complaints Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at Mar 2015 exchange rates 2. Other lending includes value of total drawdowns for Personal loans, Payroll loans and Mortgages 3. Source: HSBC Customer Recommendation Index Q1'14-Q1'15 9

10 Growth Priorities Our growth priorities have not changed and we continue to optimise our portfolio of markets and businesses. Strategic actions Targeted outcome Relationship-led Personal Lending Invest in marketing, customer relationship management, analytics and digital Strengthen credit capabilities (people, tools) Acquire new customers through unsecured lending Principal RBWM lending balance 1 growth 3-4% CAGR Growth Priorities 2 Wealth Management Deliver competitive USD1-5m, International, FX and Digital propositions Disciplined execution of the needs-based sales model Continue strong collaboration with the rest of Group Accelerate the pivot of Insurance and Asset Management towards Asia Total Relationship Balance 2 5-7% CAGR Wealth revenue 3 growth 5-7% CAGR c.10% growth p.a. AUM in Asia 3 Digital Expand digital ways of working within RBWM including digitalisation of processes Deliver data-driven, relevant and timely customer touchpoints Leverage digital investment to transform customer experience and cost base 40-50% of customers digitally active exit cost rate at level Portfolio optimisation 4 Continue portfolio optimisation Review market portfolio in line with Group priorities and requirements Address low performing / sub-scale businesses Focus investment on key priority growth markets Portfolio review conclusions implemented 1. Money lent to individuals rather than institutions. This includes both secured and unsecured loans such as mortgages and credit card balances. 2. Aggregate of Deposits (both local and foreign currency), investments (e.g. Mutual Funds, Equities, etc.) and Insurance (Life, Pension and Investment insurance products). It is exclusive of Credit Enhancement Services Insurance and General Insurance products, pure Protection Insurance products as well as Mortgage or other Loan / Asset balances 3. Wealth Distribution revenue only 4. Total customers who have logged in to one of our Digital platforms (Internet / Mobile) in the last three months as a % of all RBWM active customers (priority markets) 10

11 Relationship-led Personal Lending We have the capacity to take more credit risk in RBWM and the business is showing signs of volume growth. Principal RBWM lending balances and sales volume growth +3% Actions to date Global analytics capability improving the identification of customer needs New triggers enabling targeted offers to individual customers Personal lending balances 1 (USD) Expansion of sales channels supported by increased investment in marketing, improving new-to-bank customer acquisition Consistently implemented global segmentation capability, strengthening pricing and profitability discipline Integrated risk approach enhancing risk adjusted returns Sales volumes 2 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Cards Loans Mortgages +29% +27% +10% Next steps Investing further in analytics, including digital targeting and realtime offer capability Deploying digital utilities (e-signature, document upload) to simplify the customer experience and enable straight through processing Focusing on innovation, including new mobile sales and service capabilities, and strategic partnerships with new payment providers 1Q14 1Q15 1Q14 1Q15 1Q14 1Q15 Leveraging the Group s connectivity to deliver international mortgages and global consumer offers 1. Principal RBWM financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at Mar 2015 exchange rate. Excludes temporary impact of IPO Loans at 1Q15 in Hong Kong (4% growth including this) 2. Cards: Number of new cards issued; Loans & Mortgages: Value of total drawdowns in USD 11

12 Wealth Management Our investment in a differentiated Wealth offering is driving improved performance, with further opportunities for growth. Strong customer satisfaction with improving sales momentum We have built a clearly differentiated Wealth offering Activity Appointments Financial reviews 29% 7% Financial planning We operate a consistent global financial planning model based on our customers goals and aspirations 1Q14-1Q15 1Q14-1Q15 Aligned to needs Our relationship managers are rewarded for meeting customer needs, not for product sales Customer satisfaction 81% Would recommend their RM to family or friends 1 Integrated advice A single relationship manager can provide professional advice across a customer s Wealth and Retail needs Sales growth 2 Financial results 2 Mutual funds Equities 15% 4% 1Q14 1Q15 1Q14 1Q15 Wealth balances Wealth revenues 3 6% 6% 1Q14 1Q15 1Q14 1Q15 With opportunities for sustainable growth Further customising our proposition to better meet the needs of wealthier and more international customers Deploying enhanced analytics to improve our understanding of customer needs Investing in marketing, tools, and digital capabilities Simplifying our processes for our customers Bringing Asset Management and Insurance capabilities to retail clients including research, insights and advice 1. HSBC Relationship Manager Customer Experience Survey 4Q14; Median recommendation score across 18 priority markets 2. YTD constant currency FX rate. Mutual funds gross sales (USDm); Equities turnover (USDm); Wealth balances (USDbn); Wealth revenues (USDm) 3. Wealth Distribution revenues only 12

13 Asset Management Our Asset Management business delivers attractive returns, and is positioned to benefit from managed asset growth in Asia. Managed asset pools are forecast to grow strongly USD Total Global AUM 1 +6% This growth provides opportunities for us Asia focus Distribution footprint aligned to forecast growth of managed assets in key emerging markets Market growth opportunity HSBC Asset Management performance 2012 Global pension fund assets Middle East Latin America +15% +10% Asia Total +7% +10% Asia Asia Pacific Europe North America +17% CAGR Q1 Q Q1 Q Revenue 2 AUM 2 Retirement Group clients Defined contribution pensions growth, driving reliance on investments for retirement income Group customer base including relationships with pension funds and insurance companies We have already moved on these Deepened relationships with pension, insurance and corporate clients Developed core asset allocation solutions for RBWM Deployed a single global investment process and platform; ongoing alignment with GPB for management of discretionary portfolios Differentiated products and services through highest standards of fiduciary conduct and governance And we are positioned for future growth Participating in growing managed asset pools driven by individual investors wealth, savings and retirement plans, particularly in Asia Driving continued growth from Group retail distribution channels Leveraging Group connectivity to meet needs of institutional clients, both long-term and liquidity management Potential for selective acquisitions to strengthen franchise 1. Source: PwC Report Asset Management 2020 A Brave New World 2. Principal RBWM financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at Mar 2015 exchange rates 13

14 Insurance Insurance is accretive to the Group, with very strong exposure to high growth markets across Asia. Profitable and accretive returns for Group USD Market growth opportunity 1 Gross premium annual growth 2 (2013) 14% Hong Kong Manufacturing revenue +16% 11% China Emerging Asia life premium growth 3 (-2020) +11% Distribution revenue +4% 2020 Significant growth opportunity, particularly in Asia Asia s share of the global middle class will almost double by , driving growth and demand for wealth products including insurance, particularly to meet saving and protection needs Asia s aging population, particularly in China 5, is increasing the need for retirement and protection products as public systems become strained Increasing international availability and usage of RMB drives demand for RMB-denominated insurance products Continued focus on the high quality and underpenetrated customer base in Hong Kong where market growth has exceeded 13% for the last 2 years The insurance business is positioned for quality earnings Insurance contributes positively to Group CET1 capital through the dividends it pays to the Group, with a high RoRWA HSBC Insurance performance 6 Q1 Q Q1 Q Significant distribution footprint in markets where bancassurance is the predominant channel Proactively addressed the conduct agenda improving customer outcomes and minimising the risk of mis-selling 27% Next steps 49% 51% Committed to invest in Asia to capitalise on growth opportunities 73% Fill in product gaps, enhance offerings, and simplify processes while increasing distribution capabilities and capacity Asia Rest of World Support development with improved data and analytics 1. Life Insurance 2. HK TDC (Trade Development Council) research 3. CAGR, Munich Re Insurance Market Outlook (May ) 4. EY Asia-Pacific insurance outlook 5. EY Waves of change 6. Principal RBWM financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at Mar 2015 exchange rates 14

15 Digital Digital transformation will enable process simplification and accelerate channel migration, improving productivity and customer experience. Changing customer behaviour c.75% The Group s streamlining programme will sustainably reduce RBWM s costs Investment brings 2017 exit costs to levels Without investment, inflation drives rising costs Digital sales volumes 1 (million) exit cost rate c.-20% Digital transformation Enhance digital platform and service capabilities Accelerate deployment across geographies Improve supporting digital operations Simplifies customer interactions Branch area 2 (million sq.m.) Product and service automation Optimise end-to-end customer journeys Automate sales and service transactions to deliver straight through processing Improves productivity Channel simplification Deliver effortless multi-channel capability Empower customers via self-assisted sales Optimise branch and contact centre footprint Enhances customer experience 1. Retail sales for mortgage, loans, cards, savings, current accounts, through digital channels in top 7 markets (includes ATM / third party sales) 2. Top 7 markets 15

16 Portfolio Within our portfolio of businesses, returns are driven by a combination of domestic scale and focus on affluent customers Scale and returns for RBWM priority markets 1 RBWM revenue 2 x% of customers are Strategic actions RoRWA 3 > 4.5% 2.3% - 4.5% In larger or wealthier markets where RBWM does not have domestic scale, we can achieve profitable niche scale in affluent segments c.8% c.25% c.25% c.7% c.7% c.8% c.3% Protect and grow Transition Maintain and increase existing scale Invest to drive incremental growth Invest in increased scale to improve profitability Where there is a large enough affluent population, focus on / Advance Grow Retail Business Banking in selected markets < 2.3% Some RBWM businesses with dilutive returns fund other significant Group businesses Review Review RBWM position in overall Group context (e.g. Group profitability, funding, cost absorption) < 3.0% 3.0% - 6.0% > 6.0% RBWM deposit share 4 1. Analysis based on all HSBC priority markets excluding Saudi Arabia. 2. Principal RBWM financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at average exchange rates, average. Size of the bubble corresponds to total revenue of priority markets meeting RoRWA and deposit share criteria. 3. Principal RBWM financial data presented on an adjusted basis with comparatives translated at average exchange rates, average RoRWA; Group 2.3% RoRWA equivalent to 10% RoE 4. Deposit share as at Dec ; Source: Datamonitor 16

17 Conclusion RBWM is focused on growth, and will invest to offset rising costs while optimising our portfolio of businesses Principal RBWM RoRWA walk 1 Achieving the 2017 RoRWA 6.3 Our growth priorities have not changed. We will continue to focus our investment on relationship-led lending, wealth management and digital. 4.8 Growth priorities We will shift the focus of our Asset Management and Insurance businesses to capture opportunities in Asia. Through these priorities, we will grow our PBT faster than our RWAs, increasing our RoRWA. Digital transformation Digital transformation will enable process simplification and accelerate channel migration, improving productivity and customer experience. Through our investment in the digital transformation, we will hold our 2017 exit cost rate at levels. Portfolio optimisation We will continue to review our portfolio of markets from both RBWM and Group perspectives. We will address poorly performing businesses, and focus our investment on priority growth markets. Adjustments 2 Growth 3 Cost growth - Inflation and investments Cost savings 2017 Interest rate sensitivity Our strong deposit franchise supports a stable and diversified core funding base for the Group, and positions us to benefit when interest rates rise. 1. RoRWA excluding associates. Financial data presented on an adjusted basis with 2017 translated at 1Q 2015 average rates. 2. Adjustments includes impact of the sale of operations in Brazil and Turkey, FX adjustments and other actions 3. Risk adjusted revenue growth net of RWA growth, including any impact of interest rate changes 17