Military Perspectives on Space Commercialization
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1 Space Commercialization Conference Reach to Space Military Perspectives on Space Commercialization James B. Armor, Jr. Maj Gen, USAF (almost retired) 13 Nov 2007
2 Space Perspectives Army Navy Marines Air Force NASA NRO Commercial
3 Topline: Defense vs Commercial Industry Tension Defense industry offers unique capabilities for military advantage Military depends on industry for: Systems development Operations Industry depends on military for: Contracts Protection Commercial industry is accessible by anyone Industry looks for generic capabilities to broad markets Needs govt protection of intellectual and physical property Military wants best value for commercial needs
4 Bottomline: Government is a TERRIBLE customer Unpredictable needs, priorities and funding Policy is not self-actualizing Often requires political advocacy to sustain contracts Uneven customer competence Government is competitor to commercial industry Internal-external decisions opaque Inherently governmental functions seem arbitrary Unacknowledged dependence on commercial industry R&D Processes and professionals
5 Executive Agent for Space Initiatives on National Space Policy Dr. Sega s Initiatives include: Back to Basics discipline in acquisition Block approach to system development Continuity of Service Operationally Responsive Space International Relationships Space Industrial Base
6 AF Promotion of Commercial Launch Jan 2005 US Space Transportation Policy Encourage and support commercial launch development Umm Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) Procedure for new providers to compete (yikes!) Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) program FY04-07 funds on joint AF/DARPA Falcon program 9 contractors to varying levels of effort New capabilities can onramp to Responsive Small Spacelift (RSS) contract SpaceX is on RSS contract AF has no plans to fund further SLV development
7 Inherently Governmental It depends gray lines abound provide for the common defence, Lethal force for National Defense Spying for National Security promote the general Welfare, Risky new technology (nuclear, medicine, space) Too much capital (railroads, highways, space) No profit (National Parks, farming, hmm..space again)
8 US Government Congress builds laws by consensus and other than quantifiable criteria or effectiveness Re-election underlies EVERYTHING Congress owns the money Drives the size of Exec Branch They meddle Has NEVER, EVER passed up an opportunity to save money in the short term so they can spend more in the long term Free s up near term funds for pork
9 So,What? Examples Satcom military expedient: good Blackwater government expedient: not so good Global Positioning System military as commercial Remote sensing military constraint of free market fails Weather international cooperation trumps Computers 21 st Century paper clip Two dynamic criteria: Defense industrial base (not inherently governmental) Effectiveness ( economy of force in military parlance)
10 Recommendation to Industry Don t count on Gov as a prime customer unless willing to sustain public advocacy Unique system or S&T requires advocate in USG Sustained lobby Make your business case outside defense As industry grows, military will use
11 Despite All That, What Capabilities Does Military Need? But isn t necessarily smart enough to know yet Needs now: more and cheaper PNT, communications, remote sensing (esp imagery) Real time Archival and value added services Seamless integration with terrestrial systems Launch (Space Access) Infrastructure support (satellite control network, ranges, space surveillance, etc.)
12 Needs upcoming: Protection! Despite All That, What Capabilities Does Military Need? But isn t necessarily smart enough to know yet (cont d) Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Earth orbit, and beyond Defensive Counter Space (DCS) Govt AND commercial systems AND allied systems Cheaper to orbit by order of magnitude Manned Transport USMC really wants Military manned space only curiosity for now Gov will buy habitat use for whatever Space based Solar Power
13 Space Based Solar Power (SBSP) NSSO Report, 10 Oct 07: Architecture Feasibility Study Collaborative, no-cost study ( 170 academic, technical, legal, business, govt participants 13 space associations endorsed at Press Conference Critical benefits of SBSP Renewable energy Reduced ecological impact Industry, jobs, and general spacefaring Report recommendations: 1. Organize US Govt to conduct analyses and allow development 2. US Govt should retire major portion of technical risk 3. Create a facilitating policy, regulatory, and legal regime 4. US Govt should be early demonstrator/adopter/customer
14 What s Not Being Said? Significant gap between stated National Space Policy and observed priority and funding Credibility of NASA, USAF, NRO, and other programs disintegrating Credibility of US diplomacy on space issues fading Export controls eroding domestic space industrial base Major vulnerabilities exist in all space assets Threats growing quantitatively and qualitatively Space Situational Awareness systems not capable of causal attribution of space events Intelligence collection/analysis of threats is moribund
15 What Else is Not Being Said? Space control a vital element of US policy still substantially a taboo topic Military space professionals especially scientist/engineers intentionally scattered No coherent space organization or management Knowledge of a situation, no matter how insightful, cannot be acted upon without organizational alignment Failure of vision and leadership This is fate of the free world issue
16 What s Needed? Presidential level Space Council Oversee policy implementation and enforce priority Coordinate department and agency programs Domestic public education & international diplomacy Significant increase in civil, military, and intelligence space budgets Significant increase in government space S&T funds to insure long term US leadership Integrated National Security Space management Autonomous DoD Space Corps accountable for securing the space domain for all legal use
17 What Should Industry Do? Oh, yeah, and US citizens, too Demand protection of space systems Demand space industrial base and ITAR reform Support education programs Press for US space governance reforms Demand expansive U.S. space goals with funds Commercialization of Space Requires a Secure Domain
18 Time for action is NOW Will the U.S. be his partner or just his customer?
19 BACKUP CHARTS
20 Space Industrial Base Assessments NSS systems inherently hard harder at sub-prime levels Current government program management approach not attracting investment to solve hard problems Domestic supply base eroded Lack of government insight into supply chain hinders risk management Prime s make/buy decisions not necessarily best value to government Export controls place significant burden on suppliers Workforce issues have greater impact on suppliers
21 National Space Policy Principles of National Space Policy Ensure Freedom of Action in Space Seek to cooperate with other nations Exploration and Use of Outer Space for peaceful purposes Encourage and facilitate entrepreneurial U.S. commercial space sector What s Different from 1996? Developing core space professionals Refocused space acquisition Interagency collaboration Multi-/Inter-national cooperation Space Industrial Base Space is a Vital National Interest
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