QUARTERLY UNIT SALES COMPARISON 1,070 CONCRETE WOOD FRAME TOWNHOMES Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1-2016

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1 THE UA TAKE FOURTH QUARTER 215: THAT S CRAZY! How many times have you responded with That s crazy! over the past several months as someone relates yet another story about how much over the list price a home in their neighbourhood? That same response is being heard more and more often in reference to the new multi-family home market throughout Metro Vancouver as new projects substantially sell out within weeks and in some cases days of launching, with each achieving a higher sale value than the one before. The dizzying pace at which many projects are selling is fuelled by a combination of forces, including demand from recently immigrated and off-shore buyers with significant capital to place, and a fear of loss among local buyers who fear they ll be priced out of the market, or will need to pay even higher prices if they don t buy today. The crazy absorptions experienced in all sectors of Metro Vancouver s new multi-family home market combined with quickly diminishing supply is putting immense upward pressure on pricing. With most municipalities unable or seemingly unwilling to approve new projects more quickly to help keep up with the higher demand, there is little pricing relief in sight for new homebuyers. Sales and Inventory Summary Demand for new condominiums and townhomes was unprecedented in Q1-216 as more sales were recorded in the first three months of the year than in any quarter since 21. QUARTERLY UNIT SALES COMPARISON 675 1,73 2, ,68 2, , ,544 CONCRETE WOOD FRAME TOWNHOMES Chart 1 Q1-21 Q1-211 Q1-212 Q1-213 Q1-214 Q1-215 Q1-216 As in previous quarters, sales activity was strongest in the concrete condominium sector in the urban sub-markets of the region. Total first quarter sales of this product form were 13 percent higher than the previous quarter and 64 percent higher than in the same quarter of 215.

2 The urban sub-markets of the region located north of the Fraser River continued to dominate sales activity. New project launches in Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West, Richmond, Burnaby and Coquitlam drove strong sales activity in each of these sub-markets, which accounted for 88 percent of all new concrete condominium sales in Q The biggest increase is sales activity occurred in Coquitlam where the launch of several new high rise projects in the Burquitlam neighbourhood resulted in a 339 percent increase in sales over the fourth quarter of 215. Both investor and end user buyers are responding to the scheduled completion of the Evergreen Skytrain Line later this year. The release of new wood frame condominium product in the urban sub-markets drove higher sales in Q1-215; 69 percent more sales in the first quarter of 216 than the previous quarter. Sales in Vancouver West, Vancouver East, Richmond, Burnaby and Tri-Cities accounted for nearly 65 percent of all low rise condominium sales in the region. A diminished supply of product in the Fraser Valley sub-markets limited sales activity there. Only the Langley/Cloverdale market experienced substantially higher sales (41 percent) due to the launch of new product. Anticipate ever-increasing demand for wood frame condominium product in the Fraser Valley sub-markets as townhome pricing continues to rise higher. As a greater proportion of the local population is priced out of the detached home market, demand for townhomes will continue to increase throughout the region. The Metro Vancouver market is already experiencing this shift in demand, yet many municipalities have done little to respond to this increased demand, which is now driving townhome pricing beyond the affordability range of more buyers. The fact the Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby, New Westminster, North Shore and Tri-Cities sub-markets accounted for just 17 percent of all townhome sales in the region in the first quarter is a reflection of an extremely limited supply of this product form rather than a lack of demand. Fraser Valley sub-markets accounted for threequarters of all townhome sales in the region and represents a 66 percent jump in sales over the previous quarter. Q1 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALES Chart 2 illustrates how stronger demand for all product forms has spread across the region. After remaining relatively flat for much of the previous five years, sales volumes rose sharply during the latter part of 215 and the first quarter of , 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Chart 2 2,3 1, Total N. of Fraser S. of Fraser 6,227 4,766 1,461

3 As illustrated in Chart 3, the spread between the number of new multi-family homes sold in a quarter and the number of unsold units at the end of that quarter widened at an alarming rate in the first three months of the year. Number of Units 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, QUARTERLY SALES VS. UNSOLD INVENTORY -3,218 Chart 3 Total Sales Released Inventory Based on the pace of sales over the past 12 months and the number of unsold units at the end of Q1-216 there is less than two months of inventory of new multi-family homes in Metro Vancouver. Chart 4 provides further visual evidence of how the number of sales is exceeding the pace at which new supply is being released in every Metro Vancouver sub-market. There have been 64 percent more units sold over the past 12 months than units released to market. 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 UNIT SALES VS. UNITS RELEASED BY SUB-MARKET Chart 4 Units Sold Units Released

4 It s clear from the preceding charts that municipalities throughout Metro Vancouver have not responded to the substantial rise in demand by improving the efficiency with which applications for new home developments are processed, even after approval is granted. In the absence of more supply being added to the market at a faster rate, the immense pressure on sale values we ve witnessed in the market over the past year will continue to rise, thereby leaving more prospective local homebuyers priced out of the market, or forced to take on ever-larger and potentially unsustainable debt loads to enter the housing market. The diminished supply levels continue to be felt across all product forms. As illustrated in Chart 5, the number of released and unsold concrete condominium units dropped by 59 percent, wood frame condominiums by 68 percent and townhomes by 77 percent relative to Q The dearth of townhome and wood frame condominium supply is particularly concerning given this product is typically designed to appeal to the more price-sensitive buyer groups in the market. RELEASED INVENTORY COMPARISON 1, ,7 1, ,121 1, ,92 3,788 3,84 2,28 2,193 2,427 3,86 3,61 2,339 5,577 4,936 4,934 CONCRETE WOOD FRAME TOWNHOMES Chart 5 Q1-21 Q1-211 Q1-212 Q1-213 Q1-214 Q1-215 Q1-216 The supply of new multi-family homes is being quickly absorbed throughout Metro Vancouver. The number of unsold homes in the region was nearly 4 percent lower at the end of the first quarter of 216 compared to the end of 215. NUMBER OF UNITS Chart RELEASED INVENTORY COMPARISON Q4-215 Q

5 Not surprising, the STANDING INVENTORY TREND lower overall 2,5 unsold inventory 2, counts are also reducing the 1,5 number of 1, completed and 5 unsold units in the market to unprecedented levels. There were Chart 7 just 255 units of standing inventory in Metro Vancouver at the end of the first quarter of 215; a 52 percent drop from the end of 215. Number of Units 1,653 1,935 1,896 2,74 2,217 2,114 1,922 1,78 1,726 Chart 8 portrays STANDING INVENTORY BY SUB- MARKET 9 which submarkets in Metro Vancouver are 6 5 experiencing the fewest number of 3 22 completed and unsold units. Not only are there two sub-markets with no standing inventory and a Chart 8 third with just one unit available to move into, the overwhelming majority of completed and unsold units are condominiums. There were a mere eight completed and unsold townhome units in all of Metro Vancouver at the end of Q To highlight the dearth of townhome supply (completed or not) throughout the region, five sub-markets do not have any unsold units and another two have fewer than 1 townhome units available to purchase. There are just 372 townhome units available to purchase in all of Metro Vancouver. Number of Units Seven of the 13 sub-markets in the region do not have any standing inventory of wood frame condominiums while another two sub-markets have just one completed and unsold unit. There 1,

6 are just 88 completed and unsold concrete condominium units available in Metro Vancouver with 73 of those units located in Richmond, North Vancouver and New Westminster. INVENTORY BY PRODUCT TYPE & CONSTRUCTION STATUS CONCRETE CONDOS WOOD FRAME CONDOS TOWNHOMES Chart 9 Standing Under Construction Pre-Construction The amount of unsold inventory as of the end of Q1-216 by product type and construction status is illustrated in Chart 9. As with all other inventory metrics, the supply of unsold homes is substantially lower at all stages of construction. The fact pre-construction inventory fell by over 34 percent and under construction inventory by 48 percent indicates the market is unlikely to experience any relief from the limited supply of standing inventory in the market for the foreseeable future. Price Trends As demand continues to exceed supply by a greater margin, the upward pressure on pricing continues to grow. List/sale values of new multi-family home units have been rising throughout the market at an increasingly alarming pace. It is not unusual to have a 1 to 15 percent increase in average sale values being sought for comparable projects launched within a few months of each other. In the absence of substantially more supply and competing new home developments in the market, this price escalation is likely to continue until the market determines a ceiling for sale values, which is impossible to predict. The following summarizes the average values currently being attained and projected to be sought in the near future for various housing forms in different sub-markets of Metro Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver After the successful sale of concrete condominium product in what would in the past have been considered a B location at an average of approximately $1,2 per square foot, new condominium product scheduled to launch in Q2-216 in Yaletown is expected to seek an average sale price of over $1,3 per square foot.

7 Vancouver West Concrete condominium product along the Cambie Corridor is now seeking average sale values exceeding $1, per square foot; up from just over $9 per square foot for product launched in Q Burnaby Concrete condominium product scheduled to launch in spring 216 in the Metrotown and Brentwood neighbourhoods is expected to seek average sale values of $7 to $8 per square foot. North Shore Concrete condominiums in the Edgemont neighbourhood of North Vancouver is reportedly attaining an average of over $1,23 per square foot. A concrete low rise condominium development in Lower Lonsdale is projected to seek an average sale value of $715 per square foot. Coquitlam Recently launched concrete condominium product in the Burquitlam neighbourhood has been substantially sold at an average of $56 to $62 per square foot. Port Coquitlam and Ridge-Meadows Extremely limited townhome supply in these market areas continues to allow developers to implement $3, to $5, price increases in an attempt to moderate the pace of sales. Fraser Valley Substantial price increases of $15, to as much as $1, has done little to reduce the demand for townhome product in Fraser Valley sub-markets. A recently released townhome project in South Surrey is seeking over $52, for a 1,2 square foot unit with a single car garage. $5, would have purchased a 1,4 square foot unit in the same neighbourhood in 215. There appears to be an increasingly vicious cycle being created in Metro Vancouver s new multifamily home market. The recent rapid price escalation is causing increased buyer urgency, which in turn creates more demand for the limited supply that exists as purchasers fear they ll lose out on the opportunity to afford a home should values continue to rise. As demand grows and supply shrinks, prices continue to rise further. While it is impossible to know when the market will determine a ceiling for new home pricing in the marketplace, history has shown repeatedly that a ceiling will eventually be determined. Buyer Trends New multi-family home projects in the Fraser Valley sub-markets continue to experience greater demand from purchasers from North of Fraser sub-markets who have been priced out of their preferred product forms in their current community. The unattainable detached home pricing in urban sub-markets combined with a virtually non-existent supply of new townhomes in these same areas is driving buyers to suburban communities seeking more affordable homes in groundoriented projects. This increased demand has quickly absorbed much of the existing townhome supply in the South of Fraser sub-markets. The wider spread in new townhome and wood frame

8 condominium product pricing in suburban sub-markets resulting from the the rising townhome values in these areas is expected to generate more demand for condominium product as buyers settle for a home type within their price range. Recently immigrated and long-established local Asian buyers continue to have a substantial impact on the market through their demand for both end user and investment condominiums and townhomes. Buyers with off-shore ties with an abundance of capital to place are also driving demand for condominium product in Metro Vancouver s urban sub-markets and thereby putting further pressure on sale values. Local empty nester buyers continue to reap the benefit of the rise in equity in their existing detached homes. As they sell for higher prices, many are downsizing into a smaller but luxury condominium unit, and assisting their kids with the purchase of their homes. As such, demand for larger, empty nester oriented condominiums remains strong throughout the region. Looking Ahead In spite of the indisputable evidence of demand for new homes exceeding supply throughout the region, there appears to be little urgency among municipalities to increase the efficiency of the approvals process to allow more projects and product to be released to the market more quickly. While there are many factors affecting the new home market in Metro Vancouver, the demand/supply imbalance is one of the most significant factors. With little government action in response to the imbalance expected in foreseeable future, we anticipate further the upward pressure on new multi-family homes. Some of the more noteworthy projects UA expects to launch over the next two quarters and will be monitoring closely include: 8X on the Park Vancouver Downtown Grayson Vancouver West Maisonnette Vancouver West Ellsworth Vancouver East Quartet Vancouver East Park Estates at Concord Gardens - Richmond Calla Richmond Kingsley Estates Richmond Escala Burnaby Station Square Towers 5 & 6 - Burnaby Modena Burnaby Villo Burnaby

9 Peninsula New Westminster Connaught North Vancouver Seymour Village 2 North Vancouver Bellevue West Vancouver Nelson on Foster - Coquitlam Mont Bleu Coquitlam Venue Surrey Guildhouse Surrey Morgan South Surrey Ashbury and Oak Cloverdale Walnut Ridge at Yorkson Creek - Cloverdale As always, UA looks forward to monitoring the sales progress of these and all other actively selling new home projects, and updating the data as it is collected on nhslive.ca, the web-based platform of the New Home Source. In addition to the New Home Source at nhslive.ca, UA provides a variety of advisory and consulting services tailored to meet your firm s specific needs. Please call Michael Ferreira or Jon Bennest to discuss how we can assist you in the design and or positioning of your new multi-family home community. URBAN ANALYTICS INC. (64) info@urbananalytics.ca