Residential Heating and Cooling Systems

Transcription

1 Constium f Energy Efficiency Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description F infmation, contact: Lauren Liecau, Program Manager lliecau@cee1.g Gege M. Chapman, Seni Program Manager gchapman@cee1.g Constium f Energy Efficiency 98 Nth Washington Street, Suite 101 Boston, MA May 28, 2015

2 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description Terms of Use This document may not be reproduced, disseminated, published, transferred in any fm by any means, except with the pri written permission of CEE as specifically provided below. CEE grants its Members Participants permission to use the material f their own use in implementing administering the specific CEE Initiative to which the material relates on the understing that: (a) CEE copyright notice will appear on all copies; (b) no modifications to the material will be made; (c) you will not claim ownership rights in the material; (d) the material will not be published, reproduced, transmitted, sted, sold, distributed f profit, including in any advertisement commercial publication; (e) the materials will not be copied posted on any Internet site, server, computer netwk without express consent by CEE; (f) the fegoing limitations have been communicated to all persons who obtain access to use of the materials as the result of your access use thereof. CEE does not make, sell, distribute any products services, other than CEE membership services, CEE does not play any implementation role in the programs offered operated by on behalf of its members. The accuracy of member program infmation of manufacturer product infmation discussed compiled in this site is the sole responsibility of the ganization furnishing such infmation to CEE, CEE is not responsible f any inaccuracies misrepresentations that may appear therein. CEE does not itself test cause to be tested any equipment technology f merchantability, fitness f purpose, product safety, energy efficiency makes no claim with respect thereto. The references descriptions of products services within the site are provided "As Is" without any warranty of any kind, express implied. CEE is not liable f any damages, including consequential damages, of any kind that may result to the user from the use of the site, any of the product services described therein Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

3 Contents 1 Background Initiative Scope Initiative Goals Objectives Products Services Overview Central Air Conditioners Air Source Heat Pumps Gas Furnaces Furnace Fans Gas Boilers Equipment Installation Market Overview Market Structure Market Trends Central Air Conditioners Air Source Heat Pumps Gas Furnaces Gas Boilers Market Barriers to In-field Energy Efficiency Initiative Components Common Efficiency Specification Central Air Conditioners Air Source Heat Pumps Central Air Conditioner Heat Pump Savings Potential Furnaces Boilers Furnace Fans Furnace Boiler Savings Potential Quality Installation Education Awareness Building Contract Training Consumer Education Awareness CEE Directy Potential Future Enhancements to the Initiative Initiative Participation Requirements CEE Role in Initiative Promotion Appendix A CEE Quality Installation Stard

4 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description 1 Background Significant energy goes into the heating cooling of residential spaces in the United States Canada. Space heating accounts f 42 percent of energy consumption in US households, 1 63 percent of residential energy use in Canada. 2 Fully half of all homes in both countries are heated with natural gas furnaces boilers. 3 Residential central air conditioners air source heat pumps represent between percent of household electricity consumption in the United States. 4 Additionally, the percentage of US households with central air conditioner air source heat pump systems has increased from less than 40 percent in 1991 to over 70 percent in In der to identify energy saving opptunities address the market barriers to advancing efficiency, this CEE SM Residential Heating Cooling System Initiative was updated in 2014, integrates the fmer CEE SM Residential Central Air conditioner Air Source Heat Pump Initiative, launched in 1995, with the CEE SM Residential Gas Heating Initiative, launched in This Initiative Description provides the foundation f codinated binational program approaches based on the following three ce elements: 1) promotion of high efficiency space heating cooling equipment, 2) quality installation, 3) quality maintenance. 2 Initiative Scope The CEE SM Residential Heating Cooling System Initiative covers residential central air conditioners, air source heat pumps, gas furnaces, furnace fans, gas-fired boilers. Singlephase central air-conditioner air source heat pump equipment, both ducted ductless, up to 65,000 Btu/hour cooling capacity are within the scope of this Initiative, including both single-package split systems. The Initiative scope also includes residential natural gas furnaces with input rates of less than 225,000 Btu/hour residential natural gas boilers with input rates of less than 300,000 Btu/hour. 1 U.S. Department of Energy Energy Infmation Agency, Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), 2009 RECS Survey Data, accessed November 14, 2013, 2 Natural Resources Canada, Energy Efficiency Trends in Canada, 1990 to 2009, accessed November 13, 2013, 3 Statistics Canada, Type of main heating fuel used, by province, 2011, accessed November 14, 2013, 4 "End Use Consumption of Electricity," Energy Infmation Administration, "American Housing Survey," U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Household Economic Statistics Division, accessed March 19, Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

5 In recognition of common market characteristics that apply to the products covered by this Initiative, programs desire to promote HVAC system efficiency in addition to equipment efficiency, the Initiative merges two previous CEE Board-sanctioned initiatives, the Residential Central Air conditioner Air source Heat Pump Initiative, launched in 1995, the Residential Gas Heating Initiative, launched in The combined Initiative provides a strategic framewk f efficiency program administrats to leverage the best opptunities f energy savings in today s HVAC market, taking into consideration systemic efficiency opptunities that involve draw upon both electric gas technologies. Evapative cooling equipment geothermal ground source heat pumps are outside the scope of this Initiative. Due to differences in equipment market characteristics, commercial air conditioners, including 3-phase equipment equipment with greater than 65,000 Btu/hour cooling capacity, are covered under a separate CEE High Efficiency 6 Commercial Air Conditioning Heat Pump Initiative. Natural gas boilers with input rates of 300,000 Btu/hour above are classified as commercial units by American Canadian stards, are therefe covered under the CEE Commercial Boiler System Initiative. 3 Initiative Goals Objectives The primary objective of the CEE SM Residential Heating Cooling System Initiative is to drive efficient in-field perfmance by increasing the market penetration quality installation of high efficiency equipment HVAC systems. The goals of the Initiative are to: Increase the percentage of sales of high efficiency equipment Reduce the cost of high efficiency equipment to consumers Increase the number of contracts who promote high efficiency equipment, quality installations as defined in the CEE HVAC Quality Installation Specification, proper system maintenance Increase consumer awareness of the benefits components of a quality installation Increase the number of quality installations system improvements Highlight new areas f energy savings peak dem reduction, where appropriate 4 Products Services Overview The following subsections detail the technology behind high efficiency central air conditioners, air source heat pumps, furnaces, furnace fans, boilers. 6 "CEE High Efficiency Commercial Air Conditioning Heat Pump Initiative," Constium f Energy Efficiency, library.cee1.g/content/constium-energyefficiency-cee-high efficiency-commercial-air-conditioning-hecac-initiativ/ 5

6 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description 4.1 Central Air Conditioners Central air conditioning, which can be ducted ductless, is increasingly common in the United States accounts f almost 15 percent of total US residential electricity consumption. 7 Close to 65 percent of US households have central air-conditioning equipment, the majity of which is ducted. 8 Meover, nearly 90 percent of new homes are built with central air-conditioning. 9 Shipments of residential central air conditioners are expected to increase in the US by me than 15 percent between , with the market f this equipment exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of three percent. 10 The estimated market penetration of ENERGY STAR certified central air conditioners reached 20 percent in Estimates of average expected useful life f unitary air conditioners range from eight to 14 years in one study 12 to just over 19 years in a second analysis. 13 Central air conditioners can be configured as either split systems packaged systems. As described in the 2011 DOE Technical Suppt Document, "the air conditioner uses a blower, which f split systems may be contained in the furnace, to propel circulation air over the outside of a heat exchanger (i.e. evapat coil), transferring heat from warm circulation air to the cool refrigerant. The cooled air is then distributed via ductwk to the conditioned space, while a compress is used to further raise the refrigerant temperature befe the refrigerant transfers heat to the atmosphere through another heat exchanger (i.e. condenser coil). Split system air conditioners are comprised of an indo unit, which contains the evapat coil indo blower, an outdo unit, often referred to as the condenser, which contains the compress, condenser coil, a condenser fan to blow ambient air over the coil. Packaged systems contain all of these components in a single unit." 14 Ductless mini-split air conditioners, which consist of an outdo compress/condenser indo air-hling unit, are considered split system air conditioners, but deliver space cooling without ductwk. The US Department of Energy notes that "since mini splits have no ducts, they avoid the energy losses associated with ductwk of central fced air 7 "Residential Energy Consumption Survey," Energy Infmation Administration, "Residential Energy Consumption Survey," Energy Infmation Administration, "Air Conditioning in Nearly 100 Million Homes," Energy Infmation Administration, August 19, "62nd Annual U.S. Appliance Industry Fecast," Appliance Magazine, January "ENERGY STAR Unit Shipment Market Penetration Repts, calendar year 2012," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 12 "The U.S. Appliance Industry: Market Value, Life Expectancy & Replacement Picture 2013," Appliance Magazine, December "Technical Suppt Document: Energy Efficiency Program f Consumer Products: Residential Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, Furnaces: Chapter 8 Lifecycle Cost Payback Period Analysis," U.S. Department of Energy, BT-STD , "Technical Suppt Document: Energy Efficiency Program f Consumer Products: Residential Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, Furnaces: Chapter 3 Market Technology Assessment," U.S. Department of Energy, BT-STD , Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

7 systems. Duct losses can account f me than 30 percent of energy consumption f space conditioning, especially if the ducts are located within an unconditioned interi space such as an attic." 15 Ductless systems are often two-speed variable capacity can allow f zoning configurations. CEE is assessing savings opptunities from these products to determine whether their perfmance warrants separate treatment in future CEE specifications. 4.2 Air Source Heat Pumps A residential air source heat pump consists of the same components as a central air conditioner, but is capable of both space heating space cooling owing to a reversing valve that can change the direction of the system refrigerant flow. 16 Air source heat pumps, like central air conditioners, can be either split single package systems. From 2012 to 2017, shipments of heat pumps are fecast to increase in the US by me than 30 percent, with a compound annual growth rate of six percent. 17 The expected useful life f heat pumps ranges from nine to 15 years. 18 Another estimate places the mean lifetime f heat pumps at over 16 years. 19 Of these systems, the estimated market penetration of ENERGY STAR certified air source heat pumps was 32 percent in In addition to the general background on ductless products outlined under the central airconditioner section, ductless heat pumps may find applications in specific climates with certain housing stock where there may be an opptunity to offset heating from electric resistance other fuels. CEE continues to monit this potential opptunity to determine if the perfmance of ductless equipment will warrant separate treatment in future CEE specifications. The federal minimum efficiency stard f air source heat pumps increased January 1, There is no regional distinction in the stard f air source heat pumps, but the changes to the SEER HSPF requirements f both split packaged air source heat pumps resulted in increased baselines f efficiency programs across the United States. 15 "Ductless Mini-Split Air Conditioners," U.S. Department of Energy, accessed March 19, 'Technical Suppt Document: Energy Efficiency Program f Consumer Products: Residential Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, Furnaces: Chapter 3 Market Technology Assessment," U.S. Department of Energy, BT-STD , "62nd Annual U.S. Appliance Industry Fecast," Appliance Magazine, January "The U.S. Appliance Industry: Market Value, Life Expectancy & Replacement Picture 2013," Appliance Magazine, December "Technical Suppt Document: Energy Efficiency Program f Consumer Products: Residential Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, Furnaces: Chapter 8 Lifecycle Cost Payback Period Analysis," U.S. Department of Energy, BT-STD , "ENERGY STAR Unit Shipment Market Penetration Repts, calendar year 2012," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 7

8 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description 4.3 Gas Furnaces Gas furnaces are the most commonly used residential heating system in the US, with 50 percent of households relying on natural gas furnaces f primary space heating. 21 Additionally, furnaces account f 52 percent of total annual residential gas consumption 78 percent of annual residential gas heating consumption. 22 The average equipment life is 15 years, meaning that savings from high efficiency equipment persist f many years after installation. 23 Stard efficiency furnace technology uses natural draft venting to move combustion byproducts outside through a vertical vent such as a chimney. This open vent allows useable heat to be lost through the chimney thereby lowering system efficiency. High efficiency gas furnaces use condensing equipment to remove extra heat from the flue gases, thereby recovering heat energy from the byproducts of combustion. As heat is removed, water vap in the flue gases condenses, producing a crosive condensate that must be hled in a crosion resistant drainage system. In addition to the drain, condensing equipment typically incpates a fan to help vent exhaust gases. The drainage venting requirements are the primary sources of higher equipment installation costs with these units. Condensing furnaces boilers typically have an Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE) rating of 90 percent higher Furnace Fans All furnaces use electric fans to circulate heated air. Estimates of electric savings f a furnace meeting the CEE specification f electrical efficiency indicate that, on average, these units save 500 kwh during the heating season 200 kwh during the cooling season, provided the central air-conditioning system uses the same air hler. 24 These estimates are f the average US household; actual savings depend on many facts, including climate, equipment sizing, duct pressure. A US national stard will be introduced on July 3, 2019, using the fan energy rating (FER) metric as a measurement of fan energy use. 4.4 Gas Boilers Gas boilers heat water use a pump to circulate hot water around a home to deliver heat from baseboard radiats, under-flo radiats, other means. They represent a smaller percentage of national heating equipment than furnaces. Approximately six percent of US households 11 percent of Canadian households rely on natural gas boilers f primary space heating. In the Ntheast US census region, approximately 21 percent of households have gas boilers. The estimated lifetime of a boiler is 25 years. 25 Effective September 1, 2012, the US minimum stard f gas boiler efficiency is 82 percent AFUE f gas-fired water boilers 80 percent AFUE f gas-fired steam boilers. This 21 U.S. Department of Energy Energy Infmation Agency, Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 2009 Data, accessed November 14, 2013, 22 Ibid. 23 Appliance Magazine, The Life Expectancy/Replacement Picture, September Sachs, H.M. Smith, S., Saving Energy with Efficient Residential Furnace Air Hlers: A Status Rept Program Recommendations, April U.S. Department of Energy, Chapter 8 Life Cycle Cost Payback Period Analysis, Residential Furnaces Boilers Technical Suppt Document, Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

9 stard also requires that the design f hot water systems incpate an automatic means f adjusting water temperature a nonconstant burning pilot. 26 Half of all available boiler models are made with cast iron heat exchangers have efficiencies between 82 percent 84 percent AFUE. The most efficient boilers, like furnaces, use condensing technology that removes additional heat from the flue gases by condensing hot water vap from those gases. These units typically have higher installation costs. Condensing boiler efficiency begins at 90 percent AFUE, with efficiencies up to 96 percent AFUE available among current products Equipment Installation In recent years, evidence has been mounting that efficient labaty ratings f equipment alone are not sufficient f assessing in-field perfmance predicting energy savings. 28 A number of studies have shown that the perfmance of high efficiency equipment is only as strong as the quality of its installation, building scientists have concluded that equipment installation significantly influences the perfmance of the HVAC system. 29 F example, a high efficiency central air-conditioning system exhibiting duct leakage may waste significantly me energy than a properly installed, but lower efficiency unit. The US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that if a central air conditioner heat pump is improperly installed, only 73 percent of the cooling heating is actually delivered, with the remainder attributable to energy losses from improper installation, including an estimated four percent lost from improper refrigerant charge, three percent from improper air flow, five percent from improper equipment sizing, up to 15 percent from duct leakage. 30 Similarly, a typical furnace installation results in 15 percent of useable heat lost to duct leakage, 31 with up to 35 percent heat loss occurring when ducts are located in unconditioned space such as attics garages US Department of Energy, Energy Conservation Program f Consumer Products: Energy Conservation Stards f Residential Furnaces Boilers, Final rule technical amendment Federal Register, Volume 73, Number 145 (July 28, 2008), pages Air-conditioning, Heating, Refrigeration Institute, Directy of Certified Product Perfmance, 2014 accessed August 28, 2014, 28 Neme, C., Proct, J., Nadel, S., Energy Saving Potential from Addressing Residential Airconditioner Heat Pump Installation Problems, February 1999; Leopkey, T. ENERGY STAR HVAC Quality Installation An Opptunity f Program Savings. Govern s Energy Advisy Committee. June 25, Installation decisions that affect system perfmance are commonly broken into four categies: equipment sizing selection, duct system design installation, air flow over the indo coil, refrigerant system charge. F me infmation on these aspects of a quality installation, visit F details on the prevalence energy savings potential of addressing each component see Neme, Chris, John Proct, Steve Nadel, "National Energy Savings Potential from Addressing Residential HVAC Installation Problems," "ENERGY STAR Verified HVAC Installation Program," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 31 ENERGY STAR Quality Installation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Energy Saver Furnaces Boilers, U.S. Department of Energy, 9

10 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description The relative value of quality installation has risen over time with increases to the federal equipment efficiency stards. F example, as the baseline f central air conditioners air source heat pumps increases, there is diminishing energy savings potential from promoting high SEER equipment alone. In this environment, many programs will be compelled to demonstrate savings through other strategies, such as promotion of quality installation ongoing system maintenance. 5 Market Overview 5.1 Market Structure Residential HVAC equipment, both electric gas, typically reaches the end consumer through a distribution chain consisting of manufacturers, wholesale distributs, HVAC contracts. The pathways f both electric central air conditioners heat pumps f natural gas furnaces boilers are generally similar in the United States Canada. Alternative channels may include a retailer builder, may otherwise bypass the primary market acts; f example, manufacturers may employ a direct-to-dealer approach. The approach may also vary based on whether equipment is being replaced deployed as part of a new construction project. The various market players are described below. Manufacturers Of the 45 manufacturers of central air conditioners air source heat pumps, seven manufacturers control over 95 percent of the US central air-conditioner air source heat pump market. 33 In the US, Carrier, Goodman, Trane are the top three manufacturers of central air-conditioner air source heat pump equipment by sales. 34 While there are me than 40 gas furnace manufacturers selling equipment in the US under me than a hundred br names, six manufacturers make up me than 90 percent of market share. 35 The top three manufacturers, by sales, of gas furnace equipment are Carrier, Goodman, Lennox. 36 There are approximately 40 manufacturers me than 70 brs of residential gas boilers, with me than a quarter of the available models being made by Slant/Fin Cpation ECR International, under the Argo, Dunkirk, Pennco Boilers, Utica Boilers lines. 37 Wholesale Distributs There are both independent manufacturer-owned distributs of gas electric residential HVAC equipment. Some manufacturers use independent wholesalers exclusively, some own all of their wholesale operations, others use a combination of both. Buying groups, also known as purchasing alliances 33 "Technical Suppt Document: Energy Efficiency Program f Consumer Products: Residential Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, Furnaces: Chapter 3 Market Technology Assessment," U.S. Department of Energy, BT-STD , "Technical Suppt Document: Energy Efficiency Program f Consumer Products: Residential Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, Furnaces: Chapter 3 Market Technology Assessment," U.S. Department of Energy, BT-STD , U.S. Department of Energy, Chapter 3 Market Technology Assessment, Residential Furnaces, Central Air-conditioners Heat Pumps Technical Suppt Document, Ibid. 37 Air-Conditioning, Heating, Refrigeration Institute, Directy of Certified Product Perfmance, 2013, accessed November 14, 2013, Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

11 marketing cooperatives, offer greater purchasing power lower product costs to independent distributs. The distribut trade association, HARDI, represents me than 475 distribut members representing nearly 4,100 branch locations, close to 500 suppliers, manufacturer representatives service vends. 38 HVAC Contracts Contracts installing technicians, who may also be general contracts, have direct contact with residential customers play a key role in influencing purchasing decisions f gas electric residential HVAC equipment. Me than 60,000 contracts 4,000 businesses in the indo environment energy services community are represented by ACCA, a contract trade association. The Plumbing-Heating-Cooling Contracts (PHCC) National Association includes me than 4,000 members benefits from regional chapters across the US Canada. Retailers Retailers include national mass merchisers, national retailers, retail dealers. National mass merchisers retailers typically purchase equipment directly from manufacturers sell directly to customers, using their own affiliated contracts f installation. Builders Developers Home builders developers are also imptant players in the sale of residential heating cooling equipment since they sell equipment to customers as part of home purchases. Builders developers may make decisions about equipment selection with without engaging the eventual homebuyer on the subject of high efficiency options. 5.2 Market Trends Central Air Conditioners Air Source Heat Pumps When the CEE SM Residential Central Air Conditioner Air Source Heat Pump Initiative was first introduced in 1995, only 10 percent of the market attained a rating of 12 SEER. Since then, the average, maximum, shipment-weighted efficiencies have increased steadily, as demonstrated in Table 1 Figure 1 below. Table Changes in Average Efficiency Ratings Over Time Average Average Average Max SEER Max EER SEER EER HSPF Max HSPF Split AC Pkg AC Split HP Pkg HP "About HARDI," HARDI, accessed March 19, CEE Directy of AHRI Verified HVAC Equipment, 11

12 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description Figure 1. Shipment-weighted SEER Over Time 40 SEER Central Air Conditioners Air Source Heat Pumps Histic increases in the SEER requirements f CEE tiers, ENERGY STAR requirements, federal minimums f split central air conditioners are shown in Figure 2. While the increase in efficiency can be attributed in part to changes in the federal minimum stard, periodic enhancements the CEE tiers ENERGY STAR perfmance requirements continue to raise the bar f efficient equipment. Figure 2. Split Central Air-conditioner SEER Specifications Over Time Federal Min 14 ENERGY STAR 13 CEE Tier 1 12 CEE Tier CEE Tier 3 9 SEER The availability of efficient equipment has also increased significantly since 1995, when 1,693 central air conditioners heat pumps were listed on the Califnia Energy Commission s electronic database. In March 2014, the CEE Directy of Efficient Equipment listed me than 515,000 active central air conditioner 86,000 heat pump combinations that would qualify f a CEE tier the ENERGY STAR perfmance requirements. 42 Efficiency requirements were relatively consistent between 2007 March 2014, yet model availability at the CEE tiers increased significantly during that time ( Table 2). 40 Adapted from ARI as repted by Air Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration News, 10 September Includes single package type, year round (except heat pumps), split systems under 65,000Btu/h 41 Alignment was achieved between the CEE tier 1 ENERGY STAR SEER metric f split system central air-conditioners air source heat pumps, with the exception of , as indicated in the red line in the chart below. 42 Due to br proliferation, the unit data may not be representative of unique models Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

13 Table 2. Total Split Packaged Equipment Availability Over Time CAC 2007 CAC 2014 ASHP 2007 ASHP 2014 CEE Tier 1 108, ,210 17,876 81,877 CEE Tier 2 35, ,913 5,406 47,059 CEE Tier ,240 15,385 n/a 1, Gas Furnaces The market penetration of high efficiency furnaces has increased significantly since the Initiative began, rising from 23 percent of all US shipments in 1998, to 61 percent in 2010 to 55 percent of shipments in , 45 Table 3 illustrates the recent changes in the estimated market penetration of condensing furnaces in the US market. Table 3. Model Availability of Residential Furnaces # of Level Available % of Available Models Models # of Available Models All Models % % 90% AFUE higher % % 95% AFUE higher 851 9% % 97% AFUE higher 125 1% 185 3% % of Available Models As of August 2014, 47 percent of all available non-weatherized gas furnace models qualified f the CEE tier 1 fuel efficiency specification, up from just 12 percent of models in percent in In addition, 33 percent of models meet exceed the CEE tier 2 specification of 95 percent AFUE, five percent meet exceed the CEE tier 3 specification of 97 percent. 47 Increased availability of efficient equipment improves awareness increases the likelihood that contracts will market these products. Despite greater availability, high efficiency models continue to be me expensive. This may be due to the fact that high efficiency is commonly marketed as a premium feature. 43 Tier 3 requirements f split central air-conditioners increased in March 2014 to 18 SEER, 13 EER. Split central air-conditioning systems with 16 SEER, 13 EER (the tier 3 level effective f me direct comparison to the 2007 table) totaled 168,241 in March A tier 3 f air source heat pumps was added in This decrease from may be explained by the expiration of a $1,500 federal tax credit. 45 US Environmental Protection Agency, ENERGY STAR Unit Shipment Market Penetration Rept, Calendar Year 2011 Summary. 46 This represents the total number of approved models of gas-fired hot water boilers available based on October 2009 August 2014 searches of the AHRI Directy of Certified Product Perfmance. 47 Ibid. 13

14 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description Figure 3. Estimated US Market Penetration of Furnaces at above 90% AFUE 48 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% These national averages, however, mask the true impact that efficiency programs can have. F example, in regions of Nth America where the heating season is long where condensing furnaces have been widely promoted by efficiency programs, penetration rates are significantly higher. This includes the state of Wisconsin, where 90 percent of sales are high efficiency condensing units. 49 The national average in the US is affected by states with little heating dem where condensing furnaces may not yet be cost-effective by states where there is little promotion understing of the benefits of high efficiency equipment. By leveraging the effts of active programs employing a consistent specification, the initiative aims to increase the penetration rate further in all markets Gas Boilers The availability market penetration of high efficiency boilers has also risen. In 1998, four boiler manufacturers produced a total of only 15 models of condensing boilers (90 percent AFUE higher). 50 As of August 2014, 36 manufacturers produce 415 condensing boiler models Data from 1994 to 2007 are extracted from shipment data provided by the Gas Appliance Manufacturers Association. Data from 2008 to 2011 are extracted from ENERGY STAR Unit Shipment Market Penetration Repts. 49 Energy Center of Wisconsin, Wisconsin Residential HVAC Equipment Market, Q4 2011, 2012, accessed November 14, 2013, 50 Stanonik, Frank, Condensing Boilers: A Key to Success, AHRI Trends, Fall/Winter Air-Conditioning, Heating, Refrigeration Institute, Directy of Certified Product Perfmance, 2013, accessed November 14, 2013, Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

15 Table 4. Model Availability of Residential Boilers Level # of # of Available Models % of Available Models Available Models All Models 52 1, % 1, % 85% AFUE higher % % 90% AFUE higher % % % of Available Models The boiler market is smaller than the furnace market is concentrated in the Ntheast United States. Table 5 provides regional insight on the overall market f boilers, including both hot water steam systems. Table 5. US Households with Boilers f Space Heating (in millions) Year Entire US 53 Ntheast Midwest South West Householdholdholdholds % House- % House- % House- % House % -holds % % % 0.7 2% 0.8 4% % % % 0.5 1% 0.7 3% % % 2.3 9% 0.6 2% 0.7 3% % % 1.6 6% 1.0 2% 0.6 3% % % 1.7 7% 0.4 1% 0.4 2% Similarly, in Canada the boiler market represents only a small percentage of heating systems. Table 6 provides insight on the overall market f boilers as a percentage of households across Canada. Table 6. Canadian Households with Boilers f Space Heating (in millions) Year Canadian Households Percentage % % 5.3 Market Barriers to In-field Energy Efficiency The key barriers to increasing market penetration of efficient space heating cooling equipment achieving a greater number of quality installations are listed below. 52 This represents the total number of approved models of gas-fired hot water boilers available based on October 2009 August 2014 searches of the AHRI Directy of Certified Product Perfmance. 53 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Infmation Agency, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, accessed November 14, 2013, 54 Natural Resources Canada, 2003 Survey of Household Energy Use, accessed November 14, 2013, 55 Natural Resource Canada, 2007 Survey of Household Energy Use, accessed November 14, 2013, 15

16 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description Consumers are unaware of the benefits of investing in high efficiency equipment. The majity of heating equipment sales occurs in the replacement market where the need is often to replace equipment quickly, first cost is an imptant consideration. Consumers may lack infmation to make infmed decisions on equipment rely on the contract as an expert to guide them through the purchase. HVAC contracts may lack the training tools necessary to educate consumers effectively to promote the benefits cost-effectiveness of high efficiency equipment. Consumers are unaware of what constitutes a quality installation which contracts provide quality services. Consumers may be unaware of the degree to which installation can affect the operating efficiency of heating equipment. Meover, even if consumers are aware of this fact, they do not know how to achieve a quality installation. Contracts lack appropriate tools to sell equipment. HVAC contracts may lack the appropriate marketing tools may not be proficient in selling the benefits of high efficiency equipment. Lowest bid quotes are a strong driver in the sale of residential HVAC equipment. Contracts, however, have an opptunity to sell high efficiency equipment by educating customers about the life cycle benefits of such investments. This equipment may be me costly up front, but may also offer a higher profit margin to installers. Contracts have limited reasons to provide a quality installation. If consumers do not dem a quality installation, contracts may provide a low cost installation as a means of suppting a competitive quote. Other facts that deter the use of quality installation practices are: perceived high first cost in a low bid industry; limited understing by contracts of key aspects benefits of quality installation steps; need f additional recruitment, training, certification by ganizations such as Nth American Technician Excellence (NATE), high turnover relatively low barriers to entry into the industry. Split incentives building owners versus tenants. Building owners may lack the incentive to purchase higher priced, energy efficient equipment, especially in instances where they are not responsible f the residents energy bills. Split incentives builders versus homebuyers. Homebuilders are understably concerned with up front equipment costs but may be indifferent to ongoing energy costs. Builders can reduce their expenses by choosing lower efficiency equipment. Premium features such as kitchen finishes bath amenities tend to be highly visible to consumers. HVAC equipment is less visible, therefe may constitute less of a selling point. Existing technologies face technical limitations to increased efficiency. Existing single-stage central air-conditioner air source heat pump equipment may be nearing its thermodynamic limits of perfmance, particularly f EER in larger capacity systems. Incremental efficiency improvements at peak have diminishing returns, meaning that additional improvements may not be cost justified, in fact, may even be cost prohibitive. The most efficient residential furnaces available now exceed 98 percent AFUE. As furnaces approach their technical limits of perfmance, the efficiency of the overall heating system, including ducts, grows in imptance. 6 Initiative Components This Initiative focuses on identifying encouraging the purchase, installation, maintenance of energy efficient residential central air conditioners, air source heat pumps, Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

17 furnaces, boilers. In der to achieve high in-field efficiency, realize savings, overcome market barriers, the Initiative includes three maj elements: common efficiency specifications, a quality installation specification, promotion of quality maintenance. 6.1 Common Efficiency Specification Efficiency programs can promote CEE multitier perfmance specifications to build dem f higher efficiency among consumers to encourage manufacturers to design products to meet that dem. CEE tier 1 is generally set at a level proven to be attainable by products currently available on the market, may also align with ENERGY STAR perfmance requirements in a specific product categy. Intermediate tiers are developed, if appropriate, at levels reflecting significant perfmance improvement, but which remain technologically feasible within the realm of what efficiency program administrats can cost-effectively promote. The highest tier often represents a stretch target, which may not be cost-effective today, thus capturing only a small fraction of top perfming models. This highest tier may be aligned with ENERGY STAR Most Efficient criteria. The CEE tiers are updated periodically to enable CEE members to continue promoting the most efficient, cost-effective equipment available, while also sending signals to industry about the future equipment perfmance they are interested in promoting with financial incentives. Occasionally, when program needs dictate, a CEE tier 0 can be added to the specification, sometimes accompanied by planned date f obsolescence, with the typical goal being to suppt programs in addressing tempary market conditions. Over time, efficiency requirements of the CEE tiers have increased to address advances in technology changing market conditions. Additional drivers of revisions include increasing model availability, incremental cost, energy savings potential, the potential f alignment with ENERGY STAR, rising federal minimum stards Central Air Conditioners Air Source Heat Pumps The CEE tiers f cooling perfmance of central air conditioners air source heat pumps are based on both SEER EER ratings, while the efficiency perfmance f heating by air source heat pumps is based on the HSPF rating. Some efficiency program administrats are focus primarily on the peak load perfmance of residential central air conditioners air source heat pumps, while others are me concerned with annual energy use, a combination of the two. The CEE tiers are structured to offer programs the flexibility to address various needs conditions present at the local level. CEE tier 3 f split central air conditioners was most recently revised in 2014, followed by revision of the remaining CEE tiers, with an effective date of January 1, 2015, to address the need f sources of savings above the new federal minimum stard. The specific levels were set in consultation with CEE members the HVAC industry to capture increasing levels of efficiency that would be both cost effective technologically feasible. Where possible, previous CEE tier levels were retained as lower CEE tiers in der to leverage the existing market traction those levels have with both industry efficiency program administrats. Where previous CEE tiers could not be retained, such as with packaged equipment, natural breaks in model availability were considered, as well as the kw kwh savings potential of various levels. F the 2015 revision, alignment was achieved with the ENERGY STAR Version 5.0 levels f split packaged central air conditioners air 17

18 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description source heat pumps. Additionally, CEE tier 3 f split central air conditioners achieved alignment with the ENERGY STAR Most Efficient 2015 criteria, as did tier 2 f packaged central air conditioners air source heat pumps. The current specifications f split packaged system central air conditioners air source heat pumps are provided in the tables below. Figure 4. Split Central Air Conditioners Level SEER EER CEE Tier 0* CEE Tier CEE Tier CEE Tier Figure 5. Packaged Central Air Conditioners Level SEER EER CEE Tier CEE Tier Figure 6. Split Air Source Heat Pumps Level SEER EER HSPF CEE Tier 0* CEE Tier CEE Tier CEE Tier Figure 7. Packaged Air Source Heat Pumps Level SEER EER HSPF CEE Tier CEE Tier * CEE tier 0 was introduced during the 2015 revision in an efft to temparily address shifting market conditions resulting from the transition to the new federal minimum. F split central air conditioners, there is an 18-month non-enfcement period, during which time a sell-through of noncompliant inventy manufactured pri to 2015 will be permitted. The introduction of a tempary Tier 0 f split central air conditioners enables continued promotion of the previous CEE tier 1 by programs that still wish to reference those levels. Since the CEE tier 0 levels, fmerly CEE tier 1 from , f split air source heat pumps remain above the federal minimum CEE members have identified a continuing need f that level, CEE will also retain a tempary tier 0 f split air source heat pumps. The addition of a tier 0 f packaged equipment was not deemed necessary by CEE members. CEE will assess the viability of tier 0 f split central air conditioners air source heat pumps in advance of the expiration of the 18-month sell-through period; barring any new infmation, CEE intends to sunset tier 0 f split central air conditioners air source heat pumps in mid Central Air Conditioner Heat Pump Savings Potential While actual savings will vary based on facts such as equipment size, climate, whether a quality installation was perfmed, savings estimates f central air conditioners air source heat pumps meeting the CEE tier criteria are provided in the tables below Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.

19 These savings are in comparison to the 2015 federal minimum requirements of 13 SEER f the Nth 14 SEER f the South Southwest, assume a three-ton system. Table 7. Estimated Percent Energy Savings of CEE Tiers Compared to 2015 Federal Minimums f Split Central Air Conditioners Level Estimated % Savings over 13 SEER Estimated % Savings over 14 SEER CEE Tier 0 10% 3% CEE Tier 1 13% 7% CEE Tier 2 18% 12% CEE Tier 3 23% 18% F efficiency programs focused on managing peak load, the kw savings from 13 EER can be up to 10 percent over the 11.7 EER baseline f <45,000Btu/h central air-conditioning equipment in the Southwest, up to 30 percent over the lowest EER (9.0) equipment available on the market as of summer Table 8. Estimated Percent Savings of CEE Tiers Compared to 2015 Federal Minimum f Split Air Source Heat Pumps Level Estimated % kwh Savings over 14 SEER (cooling) Estimated % kwh Savings over 8.2 HSPF (heating) Estimated % kw Savings 56 CEE Tier 0 3% 3% 29% CEE Tier 1 7% 3% 32% CEE Tier 2 13% 7% 35% CEE Tier 3 22% 12% 35% Packaged equipment sees average cooling energy savings over the 14 SEER minimum of approximately seven percent f 15 SEER 12.5 percent f 16 SEER. Packaged central air-conditioner savings from EER increases above the baseline range from approximately ten to twenty percent, depending on the region. Heating savings f packaged air source heat pumps with 8.2 HSPF average up to approximately five percent compared with the 8.0 HSPF federal minimum Furnaces Boilers Histical success with this Initiative others shows that widespread adoption of common efficiency specifications provides a consistent signal to all market acts. This Initiative iginally adopted fuel efficiency levels consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency s ENERGY STAR Residential Heating Cooling program. The specification has since been updated to include additional fuel efficiency tiers, as well as an optional electrical efficiency specification f furnaces. The initiative promotes equipment that meets exceeds these efficiency levels. The test procedure f furnaces boilers is ASHRAE , Methods of Testing f Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency of Residential Central Furnaces Boilers. The current specifications are detailed in Tables Savings based on EER compared to lowest EER (8.5) equipment available on the market as of summer

20 Residential Heating Cooling Systems Initiative Description Table 9. CEE Furnace Specification Level Furnace AFUE CEE Tier 1 90% CEE Tier 2 95% CEE Tier 3 97% Table 10. CEE Boiler Specification Level Furnace AFUE CEE Tier 0* 85% CEE Tier 1 90% CEE Tier 2 95% * CEE tier 0 f residential boilers is intended f boiler systems where condensing equipment meeting tier 1 tier 2 is not practicable due to system building constraints. Additional considerations f condensing equipment are described in this Initiative Furnace Fans In addition to developing advanced tiers f heating cooling appliances, in November 2003, CEE added a specification f electricity use by gas furnaces. Power use f air hling, which involves a fan mot to move heated air through the ducts into the conditioned spaces, represents a large proption of the electricity drawn by furnaces. 57 The furnace fan efficiency specification requires that the annual fan mot electricity use must be less than equal to two percent of the total energy used by the furnace. This specification applies only to furnaces that meet exceed the fuel efficiency specifications set in tier 1, tier 2, tier 3. A federal minimum f furnace electricity use is scheduled to become effective in In early 2014, CEE adopted the approach f determining furnace fan efficiency referenced in ENERGY STAR Program Requirements f Furnaces Version 4.0. Figure 8. CEE Furnace Fan Efficiency Specification Equipment Requirement Furnace Fan Efficiency Level Gas Furnaces with a e = 2% of Total Furnace Energy Use minimum of 90% AFUE as calculated by approach referenced in ENERGY STAR Program Requirements f Furnaces Version 4.0 Promotion of the furnace fan efficiency specification is optional f initiative participation, though it is encouraged, particularly where cost effective f consumers Furnace Boiler Savings Potential The US minimum stard f nonweatherized furnaces is currently 78 percent AFUE; this is scheduled to rise to 80 percent on November 19, Canada established a minimum stard of 90 percent AFUE in Increasing the market penetration of high efficiency units meeting the tier 1 specification of 90 percent AFUE from 60 to 80 percent would save approximately 1,813,000 MMBtu annually, enough to provide all the natural gas needs f 25,000 houses annually. Greater market penetration of tier 2 tier 3 units would lead to 57 Energy Center of Wisconsin, Electricity Use by New Furnaces A Wisconsin Field Study, October 2003:1, 58 Natural Resources Canada, Energy Efficiency Regulations Gas Furnaces, accessed November 13, 2013, Constium f Energy Efficiency, Inc. All rights reserved.