Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Enters into a non-binding term sheet with Credit Suisse AG for up to $70 million
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1 Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA, CFA Analyst Chris Porter, BSc Research Associate-Mining Investment Analysis for Intelligent Investors April 11, 2012 Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Enters into a non-binding term sheet with Credit Suisse AG for up to $70 million Sector/Industry: Junior Exploration/Mining Market Data (as of April 11, 2012) Current Price C$1.30 Fair Value C$2.52 ( ) Rating* BUY Risk* 5 (Highly Spec) 52 Week Range C$ C$2.15 Shares O/S mm Market Cap C$51.00 mm Current Yield N/A P/E (forward) N/A P/B 2.0x YoY Return -37.8% YoY TSX -14.7% *see back of report for rating and risk definitions Investment Highlights The company changed its name from Gold Hawk Resources Inc., to Oracle Mining Corp in August Successful results from the ongoing drilling program aiming to validate historical data. Multiple mineralized intercepts identified in step-out drilling include 3.57% Cu over 27.5 feet in hole ODH- 19. OMN aims to complete an initial NI resource estimate by Q The company continues to work on engineering and permitting requirements for project development. Recently raised C$9.75 million - the subscriber was RichStone Mining Investment (Hong Kong) Limited who now owns 19.9% of OMN s shares. Entered into a non-binding term sheet for project financing with Credit Suisse AG (NYSE: CS) for a secured term loan of up to $70 million. This, we believe, is a huge vote of confidence for the Oracle Ridge Copper Mine and should enable the company to expedite project development. CAPEX required to bring the mine back into production is $100 million. Our overall valuation on OMN s shares increased from C$92.37 million to C$99.15 million; however, the value per share estimate dropped from C$2.91 to C$2.52 due to share dilution since our previous report. Key Financial Data (FYE December 31) (US$, mm) Cash Working Capital Mineral Assets Total Assets Net Income (1.18) (16.04) Oracle Mining Corp is redeveloping the Oracle Ridge Copper Mine Project near Tucson, Arizona, a historic underground mine operated in the 1990s. The mine has a historic resource of 8.14 Mtons grading 2.3% Cu Proven & Probable, and Mtons at 2.3% Cu Possible. The mine has excellent infrastructure and development in place. The company is conducting a drilling program to verify historic data for an initial NI compliant resource estimate.
2 Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Update Page 2 Corporate Update Oracle Ridge Copper Mine Project In August 2011, the company changed its name from Gold Hawk Resources Inc., to Oracle Mining Corp., in order to reflect the company s focus on the Oracle Ridge Copper Mine. The company s shares started trading on the TSX as OMN on January 13, Prior to this, shares were trading on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol GHK. OMN is focusing on the development of the 100% company owned Oracle Ridge Copper Mine located near Tucson, Arizona. An underground mine operated with a processing rate of 750 tpd (tons per day) on the site from 1991, until 1996, when the mine closed, primarily due to low copper prices. A historic (non NI compliant) feasibility study in 1995 estimated a reserve of 8.14 million tons grading 2.3% copper in the Proven and Probable categories, and million tons at 2.3% copper in the Possible category. The company s ongoing program of surface drilling aims to validate the historical database in order to produce a NI compliant resource estimate. Since our previous report in June 2011, results from an additional 19 drill holes have been released. The salient results from these holes are summarized in the following table. Hole ID From (ft) To (ft) Interval (ft) Cu Grade (%) Au Grade (opt) Ag Grade (opt) ODH Incl ODH Incl ODH Incl ODH Incl ODH Incl ODH And And And And And Source: Company The company reports that drilling completed to date (total of 41 holes) has been successful in verifying the historic data. In addition to confirmation drilling, step out drilling aims to expand the known area of mineralisation. Hole ODH-19, targeted a previously untested skarn bed discovered during recent surface mapping, and identified six separate mineralised intercepts with grades as high as 3.57% Cu over 27.5 feet. We believe this demonstrates that future upside may come from
3 Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Update Page 3 expanding the deposit from that identified in the historical resource. Future Development The company continues to work on engineering and permitting requirements for project development. In August 2011, an Aquifer Protection Permit (APP) was received from the State of Arizona for the area of historical tailings storage. The permit will need to be updated before new tailings can be deposited on the site. It should be noted that we are aware of a general negative sentiment towards the permitting process in Arizona, which has delayed the development of some projects in the past, such as the Rosemont Copper Mine owned by Augusta Resource Corp (TSX: AZC). However, it is important to stress that OMN has a number of significant strategic advantages over AZC such as developing a previously producing mine, privately held land, and an underground operation. Obtaining air permits may be particularly important. We consider this a minor risk which may delay development of the project. However, it should be noted that the company is currently working on the necessary base line studies; also, obtaining the Aquifer Protection Permit is a positive sign. A summary of the future development plans, as provided by management follows; Produce a NI compliant resource study in Q Conduct an engineering and design study to secure permits for mine construction in 2012 Permits required: APP (received July 26, 2011), Storm Water, Air Quality, 404 Permit Plant Commissioning by the end of 2013 Goal of producing 2,000 tons per day throughput by the end of 2013 We look forward to seeing the Oracle Ridge project develop and believe ongoing work will provide considerable upside over the next 12 months. We believe positive permitting news, and completion of a Feasibility Study in late Summer/early Fall, will be significant milestones. It should also be noted that OMN plans to continue resource expansion drilling throughout the construction process. Changes to Management Since our previous report, there have been a number of changes to the company s senior Management team, Board Of Directors, and Advisory committee, as follows: June 2011: the company s CEO Kevin Drover retired and was replaced by existing Director Paul Eagland as the interim CEO. July 2011: Mark Forsyth joined the Board of Directors October 2011: Alan Edwards was appointed to the Board of Directors
4 Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Update Page 4 November 2011: Paul O'Brien joined as VP of Corporate Development December 2011: Rick Lu was retained as Special Advisor to the company February 2012: Doug Nicholson was appointed as Chief Operating Officer March 2012: Doug Nicholson was appointed as Chief Executive Officer replacing interim CEO Paul Eagland, who has now been appointed as Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors. Biographies of new management, as provide by the company, are shown below. Doug Nicholson - Chief Executive Officer Doug leads the Oracle Mining operations team in the re-start of the Oracle Ridge Copper Mine. He has extensive experience in the construction and management of mining operations in North America and will also be directly involved in all aspects of the Corporation's strategic planning and business development. Prior to joining Oracle Mining, Doug worked with NovaGold Resources Inc. and served as President of Donlin Gold LLC, a 50/50 joint venture between NovaGold and Barrick Gold Corp., assuming that role during nine years of service between 2002 and At Kinross Gold from , he was responsible for scoping, scheduling, developing mine plans and staffing for the Fort Knox Mine. He holds a BSc. in Mining Engineering from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. Paul O'Brien - Vice President Corporate Development Paul has more than seven years of experience in gold equities research covering developing companies to senior producers as well as precious metals forecasting, during which time he was ranked in the top five of Wall Street Journal's "Best on the Street Analyst Survey" for North American Mining Analysts two years in a row. His prior corporate advisory and investment banking experience includes more than nine years primarily focused on mining, while gaining global mining markets experience in Canada and Australia as a member of bank-owned capital markets groups. Most recently, Paul was a Partner at Gryphon Partners, a mining-focused corporate advisory and M&A firm that was recently acquired by Standard Chartered Bank. Paul received his B. Comm. from McMaster University and is a CFA Charterholder. Mark Forsyth- Director Mark has spent 25 years working in Commodity Trading. He started his career in London in 1986 working for Marc Rich + Co. For the past nine years, Mark has been based in Zug, Switzerland where he was Head Trader at Marc Rich & Co Investment AG for seven years. More recently he worked for the Trafigura Group where he was senior trader and at the end of 2010 he formed his own consultancy group Cliveden AG based In Zug. Mark brings invaluable experience to Oracle Mining. Alan Edwards - Director Alan has three decades of diverse mining industry experience. His experience includes VP
5 Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Update Page 5 and Senior VP of Surface Mines at P.T. Freeport Indonesia's Grasberg, and as Executive VP and Chief Operating Officer of Apex Silver Mines Corporation, where he was responsible for the engineering, construction and commissioning of the San Cristobal mine in Bolivia. He served as CEO and President of Copper One Inc. and as CEO and President of Frontera Copper Corp. He is the former VP of Technical Services and Project Development and former VP of Operations of Kinross Gold Corporation. Alan holds a BSc in Mining Engineering and an MBA in Finance from the University of Arizona. We are encouraged by the latest additions to management, especially Doug Nicholson as Chief Executive Officer, who has good experience in developing similar projects to production. Financials At the end of December 2011, the company had $7.94 million in cash and cash equivalents. Working capital was $6.00 million. The company reported a net loss of $16.04 million (EPS: -$0.51) in FY2011. We estimate the company had a burn rate (spending on its operations and investing activities) of $1.27 million per month in FY2011, versus $0.35 million per month in FY2011 (12 month period ended December 2010). The table below shows a summary of the company s cash and liquidity position. (US$) Working Capital 22,624,000 6,000,000 Current Ratio LT Debt/ Assets 5.7% 4.5% Burn Rate/Month (incl exploration costs) (350,833) (1,274,250) Cash from financing activities 7,200,000 (748,000) Subsequent Financings: In February 2012, the company completed a non-brokered private placement by issuing 7.80 million shares (at C$1.25 per share) for gross proceeds of C$9.75 million. The subscriber was RichStone Mining Investment (Hong Kong) Limited who now owns 19.9% of OMN s shares. According to OMN: RichStone is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RichStone Investment Co., Ltd., a company focused on investment in the exploration and development of base metals as well as oil and coal. Established in 1997, RichStone has 11 subsidiaries, plus area and administrative offices and research centres throughout China, employing nearly 1,000 people. This is the most significant investment RichStone has made in a mining venture outside of China. RichStone has the right to participate in any future equity financings so long as RichStone holds not less than 10% (and a maximum of 19.9%) of the outstanding shares. On March 12, 2012, the company announced it entered into a non-binding term sheet for project financing with Credit Suisse AG for a secured term loan of up to $70 million. This, we believe, is a huge vote of confidence for the Oracle Ridge Copper Mine and
6 Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Update Page 6 should enable the company to expedite project development. The expected completion date is in Fall 2012, following filing of the feasibility study. The company's current cash position is $13.3 million. The CAPEX budget for the next 18 months is $100 million (expected costs to bring the mine back into production) - which implies the company will have to raise another $20-$25 million (assuming the project financing with Credit Suisse is finalized). Stock Options and Warrants: The company has 3.85 million stock options (weighted average exercise price - C$1.77) outstand, and 0.68 million are in the money. No warrants are outstanding. Valuation and Rating DCF Valuation - We continue to - a) use 100% of the proven and probable reserves, and 50% of the possible reserves for valuation purposes, and b) assume a 3,000 tpd operation with a mine life of 16 years. Our revised DCF valuation on OMN is C$101 million (C$2.56 per share) versus our previous estimate of C$89 million (C$2.80 per share). The valuation increased primarily because we raised our long-term gold, copper and silver price forecasts from $1,000/oz, $2.03/lb and $18.35/oz, to $1,200/oz, $2.25/lb and $22/oz, respectively (long-term C$/US$ - 1.1). DCF Valuation Summary Reserve / Resource (tons) 16,425,000 Average Copper Grade (%) 2.33% Average Gold Grade (opt) 0.01 Average Silver Grade (opt) 0.70 Copper Recovery 90% Gold Recovery 50% Silver Recovery 50% Recovered Copper (lb) 688,500,000 Recovered Gold (oz) 82,125 Recovered Silver (oz) 5,748,750 Mine Life (years) 16 LT Copper Price (US$ per lb) $2.25 LT Gold Price (US$ per oz) $1,200 LT Silver Price (US$ per oz) $22.00 LT C$/US$ 1.10 Production Commencement mid 2014 Initial CAPEX $125,000,000 Avg Operating Cost ($/t) $55 Discount rate 11.6% Net Present Value (C$) $101,014,886 No. of Shares * 39,407,916 Fair Value per Share $2.56 * Estimated based on the treasury stock method
7 Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Update Page 7 However, the value per share estimate dropped as the number of shares increased from million to million (24% increase) since our previous report. Real Options Valuation - Our revised real options valuation (using the same inputs as above) is C$118 million (C$3.00 per share) versus our previous estimate of C$100 million (C$3.16 per share). Comparables Valuation - Our in-house models indicate that the peer average Enterprise Value (EV) to resource ratio of junior copper projects is currently C$0.03/lb. Considering that Oracle Ridge has much higher copper grades than most of its peers, we apply a $0.05/lb metric to its resources which gave a fair value of C$48 million (C$1.22 per share) versus our previous estimate of C$40 million (C$1.25 per share). Based on the three valuation models, we arrived at a revised fair value of C$2.52 per share. Our previous estimate was C$2.91 per share. Valuation Summary (C$) Value Value per Share Oracle Ridge Project DCF $101,014,886 $2.56 Real Options $118,354,919 $3.00 Comparables $48,251,000 $1.22 Average $89,206,935 $2.26 Working Capital - LT Debt $9,940,250 $0.25 Fair Value $99,147,185 $2.52 We reiterate our BUY rating and adjust our valuation from C$2.91 to C$2.52 per share. Risks The following risks, though not exhaustive, may cause our estimates to differ from actual results: The value of the company is dependent on commodity prices. The company does not currently have any operating mines. The company has not obtained NI compliant resource estimates Results of data verification may invalidate historic data and resource estimates Permitting risks exist. However, Arizona is a mining-friendly jurisdiction and the mine, processing facilities and tailings are on privately owned land, which should considerably lower the permitting risks. Access to capital and share dilution.
8 Oracle Mining Corp. (TSX: OMN, OTCQX: OMCCF, Frankfurt: OMC) Update Page 8 Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale: Buy Annual expected rate of return exceeds 12% or the expected return is commensurate with risk Hold Annual expected rate of return is between 5% and 12% Sell Annual expected rate of return is below 5% or the expected return is not commensurate with risk Suspended or Rating N/A Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events. Fundamental Research Corp. Risk Rating Scale: 1 (Low Risk) - The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt. 2 (Below Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt. 3 (Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient. 4 (Speculative) - The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative. 5 (Highly Speculative) - The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products. Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues, and may rely on external funding. These stocks are considered highly speculative. Disclaimers and Disclosure The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst about this company and industry. Any forward looking statements are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp. FRC does not own any shares of the subject company, does not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and does not have any investment banking business with the subject company. Fees were paid by OMN to FRC. The purpose of the fee is to subsidize the high costs of research and monitoring. FRC takes steps to ensure independence including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are protected contractually. To further ensure independence, OMN has agreed to a minimum coverage term including an initial report and three updates. Coverage can not be unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. The performance of FRC s research is ranked by Investars. Full rankings and are available at The distribution of FRC s ratings are as follows: BUY (69%), HOLD (7%), SELL (4%), SUSPEND (20%). To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit for subscription options. This report contains "forward looking" statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company and/or stock s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company's products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company's new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company's periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. A report initiating coverage will most often be updated quarterly while a report issuing a rating may have no further or less frequent updates because the subject company is likely to be in earlier stages where nothing material may occur quarter to quarter. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. 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