A Software Tool to Evaluate the Total Ownership Cost of Distribution Transformers

Transcription

1 Power Systems Modelling and Visualisation Lab A Software Tool to Evaluate the Total Ownership Cost of Distribution Transformers A.L. Lazari, C.A. Charalambous 7-8 October 2013 Nicosia, Cyprus POEM Power Options for the Eastern Mediterranean Region

2 Outline Introduction Motivation and Scope of Work Proposed Model Application Example Post Processing Results Conclusion POEM

3 Introduction The Total Ownership Cost (T.O.C.) of a transformer is the sum of the purchase price plus a financial estimate of the life-time running costs of the transformer. T.O.C ( ) = Purchase Price + Life-Cycle Cost of Losses Where/Why is it used? Design specifications of transformers Compare the relative merits between competing transformers Estimate the ideal time to retire/replace existing transformers POEM

4 Evaluation of Power Losses (Distribution Transformers) POEM

5 Life-Cycle Cost of Losses Cost of Losses = (A NLL) + (B LL) o A ( /kw) = Capitalized Life-Cycle Cost of No-Load Losses o B ( /kw) = Capitalized Life-Cycle Cost of Load Losses o NLL (kw) = No-Load Losses o LL (kw) = Load Losses *Note: A & B Factors are unique to each purchaser or transformer user, even for different applications. POEM

6 Proposed Terms The Capitalized Cost Factors (A, B) are appraised to their equivalent Demand and Energy components: The Demand component of losses is the cost of installing system capacity expressed in /kw to serve the power used by the losses. The Energy component of losses is the present value of the energy that will be used by one kilowatt of loss during the life-cycle of the power plant under study, expressed in /kwh. The derivation of the Demand and the Energy component of losses is based on factors derived from historical and forecasted system costs. [1] Charalambous, C.A.; Milidonis, A.; Lazari, A.; Nikolaidis, A.I., "Loss Evaluation and Total Ownership Cost of Power Transformers Part I: A Comprehensive Method," Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on, vol.28, no.3, pp.1872,1880, July 2013 [2] Charalambous, C.A.; Milidonis, A.; Hirodontis, S.; Lazari, A., "Loss Evaluation and Total Ownership Cost of Power Transformers Part II: Application of Method and Numerical Results," Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on, vol.28, no.3, pp , July 2013 POEM

7 Fundamental Logic of Model Life-Cycle System Costs + Purchase Price Total Ownership Cost [1] Charalambous, C.A.; Milidonis, A.; Lazari, A.; Nikolaidis, A.I., "Loss Evaluation and Total Ownership Cost of Power Transformers Part I: A Comprehensive Method," Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on, vol.28, no.3, pp.1872,1880, July 2013 [2] Charalambous, C.A.; Milidonis, A.; Hirodontis, S.; Lazari, A., "Loss Evaluation and Total Ownership Cost of Power Transformers Part II: Application of Method and Numerical Results," Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on, vol.28, no.3, pp , July 2013 POEM

8 System Costs Capital Costs New Peaking Generation Installation (G)* Operation (G, T, D)* Operating Costs Repairs &Maintenance (G, T, D)* Transmission System Fixed Costs (T)* Green House Emissions Rights (G) * Fuels (G)* Distribution System Fixed Costs (D)* Other (G, T, D)* * G: Generation Category, T: Transmission Category, D: Distribution Category **Some form of uncertainty exists with future energy related prices (fuels) forecasts; uncertainty that increases with longer time horizons. [1] Charalambous, C.A.; Milidonis, A.; Lazari, A.; Nikolaidis, A.I., "Loss Evaluation and Total Ownership Cost of Power Transformers Part I: A Comprehensive Method," Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on, vol.28, no.3, pp.1872,1880, July 2013 POEM

9 Fuel Pricing Variation and Predictions [2] Charalambous, C.A.; Milidonis, A.; Hirodontis, S.; Lazari, A., "Loss Evaluation and Total Ownership Cost of Power Transformers Part II: Application of Method and Numerical Results," Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on, vol.28, no.3, pp , July 2013 POEM

10 Derivation of D peak & E peak Aggregate Annuitized Demand Component Annuitized cost per kw of planned peaking generation Units Demand Component attributed to fuel costs Aggregate Annuitized Energy Component Demand Component attributed to generation operating costs (Fixed Component) Energy Component attributed to fuel costs Energy Component attributed to generation operating costs (Variable Component) POEM

11 Derivation of D peak & E peak Aggregate Annuitized Demand Component Annuitized cost per kw of planned peaking generation Units Demand Component attributed to fuel costs Aggregate Annuitized Energy Component Demand Component attributed to generation operating costs (Fixed Component) Energy Component attributed to fuel costs Energy Component attributed to generation operating costs (Variable Component) POEM

12 Sensitivity Analysis and Case Scenarios Different planned Fuel Usage Scenarios for peaking generation up to 2040 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Diesel LNG Diesel LNG POEM

13 Demand Cost Component /kw Energy Cost Component /kwh Influence of Different Planned Fuel Usage (2) Demand Energy Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario POEM

14 Application Example For Total Cost of Ownership Example of Selling Prices and Guaranteed Losses provided by Manufacturers: Transformer Selling Price ( ) NLL (kw) LL (kw) A B C D POEM

15 Total Ownership Cost of Transformers Transformer Scenario 1 (TOC - ) Scenario 2 (TOC - ) Scenario 3 (TOC - ) A B C D Important Conclusion: Different Scenarios of Future Fuels Usage Yield Different Cost Effective Choices in selecting competing Transformers POEM

16 Conclusion Introduce a holistic management approach to appraise the Demand and Energy component of the life-cycle cost of losses. Capitalize Demand and Energy components per system category. Misleading and inaccurate long-term fuel provision schedule gives imprecise results among competing transformers. POEM

17 Thank you for your attention! Antonis L. Lazari Dr. Charalambos A. Charalambous *Acknowledgment: Electricity Authority of Cyprus for financial and technical support POEM

18 Annual Demand Component Operating Costs Fuel Costs POEM

19 Annual Energy Component Operating Costs Fuel Costs POEM

20 Model Innovation Use of the levelized annual cost of losses basics Incorporates the contribution of user s operating expenditures in costing the power to supply life cycle losses based on factors derived from relevant historical data Accommodates the projected energy prices as per the specific fuel used in the generation mix and projected system peak load derived from forecasting regimes Applicable to users who possess their generation, transmission and distribution facilities POEM

21 /MT Fuel Cost Predictions Crude Oil 30th Crude Oil 40th Crude Oil 50th Year [2] Charalambous, C.A.; Milidonis, A.; Hirodontis, S.; Lazari, A., "Loss Evaluation and Total Ownership Cost of Power Transformers Part II: Application of Method and Numerical Results," Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on, vol.28, no.3, pp , July 2013 POEM

22 /MT Fuel Cost Predictions Diesel 30th Diesel 40th Diesel 50th Year [2] Charalambous, C.A.; Milidonis, A.; Hirodontis, S.; Lazari, A., "Loss Evaluation and Total Ownership Cost of Power Transformers Part II: Application of Method and Numerical Results," Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on, vol.28, no.3, pp , July 2013 POEM