NAHL Group. Better than expected FY14 EPS and dividend. Strong FY14 results. Key growth strategy element: First acquisition made

Transcription

1 NAHL Group Better than expected FY14 EPS and dividend Preliminary results Financial services NAHL s maiden full year results show strong growth of 29.3% in underlying operating profit on continuing operations revenue up 10.4%. Underlying PBT was marginally ahead of our expectation following the January trading update, while normalised diluted EPS is 0.5p higher due mainly to fewer diluting shares. In line with the group s dividend progressive policy, management is proposing FY14 total dividends of 15.7p, which provides shareholders with a current 5.8% yield. With the group s revenue mix trending to the higher-margin, faster growing segments of the UK personal injury markets (together with last month s "expected to be" accretive acquisition), we are increasing our FY15 EPS estimate by 1.3p to 26.7p and initiating a FY16 EPS estimate of 29.4p. The group is highly cash generative, which adds resource for further strategic (and accretive) acquisitions. 24 March 2015 Price 270.0p Market cap 111m Net cash ( m) at end December Shares in issue 41.2m Free float 72% Code NAH Primary exchange AIM Secondary exchange N/A Share price performance Year end Revenue ( m) PBT* ( m) EPS* (p) 12/ N/A 12/ /15e /16e Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments, and exclude discontinued activities and products. Strong FY14 results DPS (p) NAHL has performed strongly in its first year as a quoted company. FY14 saw significant growth from its continuing business with a 15.3% increase in enquiries, P/E (x) Yield (%) which led to revenue from solicitor income growing by 11.7%. Product revenue rose 2.1%, although continuing products grew 11.2%. Together this resulted in a 10.4% group revenue increase. Group operating margin rose to 29.0% (FY13: 24.7%), leading to a 29.3% rise in underlying operating profit to 12.7m (FY13: 9.8m). Key growth strategy element: First acquisition made A key part of the group s growth strategy is to make strategic acquisitions. In February 2015, the first of these was the purchase of Fitzalan Partners, an online marketing specialist that uses innovative proprietary technology platforms to target home buyers and sellers in England and Wales and offers lead generation services in the conveyancing market. The initial cash consideration was 3.0m plus up to 1.3m contingent cash payable by FY15 year-end. Fitzalan reported historic PBT of 0.7m and management expects it to be "immediately earnings accretive". Valuation: Further upside potential Since the May 2014 IPO at 200p, NAHL s share price has performed strongly, supported by delivering results that provide good comfort that the group s business model is solid. Provided NAHL continues to source quality enquiries for its PLFs and help them achieve higher conversion rates, we believe management should be able to increase EPS and dividends in excess of 10% pa in the medium term. Further strategic acquisitions also have the potential to add to growth prospects. Overall, we believe that the share price has further upside potential. % 1m 3m 12m Abs N/A Rel (local) N/A N/A N/A 52-week high/low 272.5p 190.0p Business description NAHL Group is a leading UK consumer marketing business focused on the UK legal services market. The group generates consumer leads through direct response marketing. In the personal injury market, after internally filtering these leads, quality lead claimants (known as Enquiries ) are directly connected to a panel law firm (PLF). The recent acquisition of Fitzalan Partners extends the group s reach into the conveyancing market. In addition, the group provides selected law process products to law firms. It is a key sensitivity that there is no adverse change in UK regulation related to outsourcing of marketing leads by PLFs. Next events AGM 27 May 2015 Interim results September 2015 Analysts Martin Lister +44 (0) Fiona Orford-Williams +44 (0) consumer@edisongroup.com Edison profile page NAHL Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

2 Company description: Leading UK PI lead generator NAHL is a leading UK consumer marketing business focused on the UK personal injury (PI) market, advertising through its core brand, National Accident Helpline. Established in 1993, the group s business has become the UK s largest outsourced marketing services provider to the personal injury market, which generates c 3bn in fees generated mainly by law firms. The group s core business model is based on enquiry origination through direct response marketing, connecting claimants who have been injured in non-fault accidents with specialist panel law firms (PLFs). The National Accident Helpline brand has been developed through more than 200m of marketing costs, of which 23.1m was spent in FY13 and 23.9m in FY14. The group s Underdog character, launched in 2010, has helped promote the brand, which is one of the most recognised, most trusted and most searched in the UK according to independent research sources. The group has built five panels of rigorously selected law firms, which pay for NAHL s marketing and overhead expenses on a cost plus variable margin model, based on a predictive enquiry origination formula for the PLF s individual geographic area and specialisation. In addition, NAHL receives commission from the sale of third-party products to the PLFs. The group s brand media spend, marketing know-how and PLF relationships have created significant competitive barriers to entry. A key part of the group s growth strategy is to make strategic acquisitions and in February 2015, the first of these was the purchase for a maximum consideration of 4.3m of Fitzalan Partners, which offers lead generation services in the conveyancing market. Valuation: Further upside potential NAHL s P/E valuation on both our year one and two estimates is the lowest of our selected proxy comparators. On our year two estimates, it is has the highest yield. Provided NAHL continues to source quality enquiries for its PLFs, which are the source of the group s revenue, and enables them to achieve higher conversion rates, we believe that management should be able to increase EPS and dividends in excess of 10% pa in the medium term. In addition, the group has the resources to add accretive acquisitions where the group s model can be replicated in different markets. On these bases, the current valuation leaves further upside potential for the share price. Financials: Solid balance sheet The group has historically achieved strong positive cash flow and high underlying operating profit cash conversion. This continued in FY14 with the balance sheet showing a move to 1.2m net cash at FY14 year end, compared with 4.7m net debt a year earlier. We estimate that net cash will stand (after a maximum of 4.3m acquisition costs) at 1.4m at end FY15 and 6.2m at end FY16. Sensitivities The major sensitivities for the group include: any significant change(s) in the regulation and laws relating to the PI market; the manner in which UK law firms source enquiries; the effectiveness of the group s TV and online marketing strategy to generate new leads; its significant exposure to the competitive UK PI litigation market; the standing of group s reputation and brand; and the stability/security of the group s information systems. A material change to any of these has the potential to surprise on either the upside or the downside. In addition, the end May 2015 expiry of shareholder post-ipo lock-ins is a potential stock overhang, though this is substantially lower following the sale of the entire 30% private equity stake in Q115. NAHL Group 24 March

3 Preliminary results for the year to 31 December 2014 In FY14, the group s call centre in Kettering dealt with 248,000 (FY13: 225,000) consumer contacts, generating a 15.3% increase (FY14: 83,000; FY13: c 72,000) in qualified PI enquiries for the group s panel of 50 specialist PLFs. Group operating margin improved to 29.0% (FY13: 24.7%), leading to underlying operating profit of 12.7m, up 29.3% on 9.8m in FY13. It should be noted that the 119% increase in normalised diluted EPS in part reflects the substantial reduction in finance expense following the repayment and settlement of loan notes in FY13. The group s high operating profit cash conversion (FY14: 97.6%) provides support for the its stated policy to pay dividends of c 66% of retained profit for each financial year. This also provides resource to add further strategic acquisitions that can either add value to the existing business or enable the group to extend into related areas of consumer law where the group s model can be replicated in different markets. Revenue and margin analysis In FY14, revenue from solicitor income grew 11.7%, with the mix of enquiries continuing to trend towards the higher-value categories and c 76% (FY13: 72%) of enquiries being generated from the faster growing non-road traffic accident (non-rta) and medical negligence sectors. The lower growth in product revenue of 2.1% in part reflects the decline in products related to pre-laspo (Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012) cases, which was more than offset by 11.2% growth in continuing products. Following development and testing in 2014, the group expects to launch in H115 a new type of medical negligence triage service product, which could deliver increased volumes from H116. Management s aim is to see the group s continuing product income grow in line with solicitor income. Group overall gross margin increased to 45.5% (FY13: 41.9%) at the same time as reducing cost by enquiry to PLFs by 3.2%. Group operating margin, after unallocated central costs, improved to 29.0% (FY13: 24.7%), remaining on track to achieve management s 30% target, which we estimate can be reached in FY15 and then rise to 30.2% in FY16. Exhibit 1: Segmental continuing business revenue and margin analysis FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e Segment revenue ( 000) Solicitor income * 34,423 38,445 42,900 46,900 Products 5,294 5,403 5,700 6,100 Segment gross margin % Solicitor income * Products Segment operating margin % Solicitor income * Products Group operating margin % ** Source: NAHL, Edison Investment Research. Note: * solicitor income includes the Fitzalan Partners acquisition, which may be reported separately in FY15 and FY16. ** After unallocated central costs. Data exclude discontinued business (PPI Claimline) and product (pre-laspo ATE insurance). Solid balance sheet The group has historically achieved strong positive cash flow and high underlying operating profit cash conversion. This has continued in FY14 with the balance sheet showing a move to 1.2m net cash at FY14 year-end, compared with 4.7m net debt a year earlier. Net cash is calculated after the outstanding pre-laspo After-The-Event non-interest bearing liability, which is reducing substantially as related cases conclude FY14: 6.5m (FY13: 12.1m). Taking management s expectation that this liability will be substantially repaid in FY15 and FY16, we estimate that net cash will stand at 6.2m at FY16 year-end. NAHL Group 24 March

4 FY15 estimate raised; FY16 estimate initiated With the group s product mix trending to the higher-margin, faster growing segments of the UK personal injury markets (together with last month s "expected to be immediately accretive" acquisition of Fitzalan Partners and the new product launch in H115), we are increasing our normalised diluted EPS estimate by 1.3p to 26.7p for FY15 and initiating a normalised diluted EPS estimate of 29.4p for FY16. The UK personal injury (PI) market overview The UK PI market is estimated at c 3bn and has around one million claims pa. While the overall market remains relatively flat, medical negligence is growing at 12.4% and non-rta at 7.1% pa (source: CRU statistics 2014). Management estimates that the group has an overall c 4% share, with market share of 1.9% in road traffic accident (RTA), 11.6% in non-rta and 5.8% in medical negligence. While the PI market has seen some consolidation, it remains fragmented and this provides opportunity for growth. The group launched its Stop Nuisance Calls campaign during 2014 and remains at the forefront of efforts to drive out unsolicited texts and calls. Valuation: Further upside potential There are no quoted companies that are directly comparable competitors to NAHL s business. However, there are a number of marketing companies that employ a similar model, such as Moneysupermarket.com and Rightmove, both of which employ outsourcing B2C capabilities. Also included in our proxy comparison table are insurance business processing and legal services companies. The span of valuation metrics for this proxy selection shows considerable variation, especially EV/revenue. Compared with these selected companies, NAHL s P/E valuation on both our year one and two estimates is the lowest of the proxy group. On our year two estimates it is the third lowest for EV/EBITDA and has the highest yield. Provided NAHL continues to source quality enquiries for its PLFs, which are the source of the group s revenue, and enables them to achieve higher conversion rates, we believe management should be able to increase EPS and dividends in excess of 10% pa in the medium term. In addition, the group has the resources to add accretive acquisitions where its model can be replicated in different markets. On these bases, the current valuation leaves further upside potential for the share price. Exhibit 2: Proxy comparison table Ticker Price Mkt Cap YE EV/Rev EV/EBITDA P/E P/E Yield p/us$/a$c m/us$m/a$m Hist Year2 Year2 Year1 Year2 Year 2 B2C Moneysupermarket MONY ,578 Dec Rightmove RMV ,897 Dec Insurance business processing Redde REDD Jun Serco SRP Dec Exlservice * EXLS ,234 Dec Innovations group TIG Sep Legal services Murgitroyd MUR May Slater & Gordon ** SGH ,586 Jun Shine Corporation ** SHJ Jun Average NAHL NAH Dec Source: Thomson Reuters, Edison Investment Research. Note: *US. **Australian. Prices as at close on 20 March NAHL Group 24 March

5 Sensitivities The major sensitivities for the group include: Any significant change(s) in the regulation and laws relating to the PI market It is important for NAHL that no adverse regulatory change occurs with regard to the use by PLFs of outsource marketing companies. The group is regulated by the CMRU, which completed its audit of NAHL in February 2014 with no significant issues identified. While management believes that it has implemented all regulatory changes, the group faces the risk in the future that the CMRU may find areas of non-compliance, which could adversely affect the group s operations. PLFs, the group s customers, are regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority, the regulatory body for solicitors in England and Wales, and must adhere, among other things, to the provisions of LASPO. Changes in the regulatory requirements applying to law firms could adversely affect their businesses. The manner in which UK law firms source PI and conveyancing enquiries In addition to adhering to the regulations in force, UK law firms may decide to alter the manner in which they source PI and conveyancing enquiries. A number of law firms, such as Slater & Gordon, already source these enquiries directly. The PLFs and/or a number of individual law firms could form new entities that source PI and conveyancing enquiries directly if they conclude that this would be more cost-effective and efficient than their current method in place. Effectiveness of the group s TV and online marketing strategy to generate new leads The effectiveness of the group s marketing strategy could be affected by changes in technology and media delivery, which could give rise to new types of entrants. In addition, changes to search engines algorithms or terms of services could cause the group s websites to be excluded from or ranked lower in organic search results. Significant exposure to the competitive UK PI litigation market The group is exposed to particular risks specific to the provision of legal services in the PI sector. A downturn in this sector could result in law firms having fewer resources to devote to marketing and origination. The standing of the group s reputation and brand The group relies on its brand, National Accident Helpline, and on its advertising character, the Underdog. Any damage to the group s brand or reputation could cause damage to its business, even if any negative publicity is factually inaccurate or unfounded. The stability and security of the group s information systems The group s information systems are essential to a number of critical areas of its business operations and, as a result, the group has disaster recovery systems in place. The group could be liable as a result of any theft or misuse of personal information stored on its information systems. In addition, because the group transfers data to third-party partners, there can be no assurance that the group will not encounter data migration or other errors. A material change to any of these has the potential to surprise on either the upside or the downside. In addition, the future share price could be temporarily affected by the expiry of lock-ins. Shareholder post-ipo lock-ins potential stock overhang While Lloyds Development Capital and Inflexion, both private equity firms that invested in the group in 2006 and 2009 respectively, no longer have a stake in the group, the group s directors and certain senior management (18.8% stake) plus Alan Kennedy, an original founder of the group, (9.0% stake) are bound by a lock-in period, which ends on 29 May NAHL Group 24 March

6 Exhibit 3: Financial summary '000s e 2016e IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Revenue 34,717 39,159 39,717 43,848 48,600 53,000 Cost of Sales (21,964) (23,866) (23,090) (23,885) (25,300) (26,900) Gross Profit 12,753 15,293 16,627 19,963 23,300 26,100 EBITDA 6,183 7,044 10,074 12,925 14,700 16,100 Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) 6,026 6,870 9,829 12,713 14,600 16,000 Intangible Amortisation Exceptionals (652) 0 0 Share based payments (288) (600) (750) Other Operating Profit 6,026 6,870 9,836 11,773 14,000 15,250 Net Interest (2,580) (2,430) (3,617) (181) 0 90 Exceptional financial income Profit Before Tax (norm) 3,446 4,440 6,212 12,532 14,600 16,090 Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) 3,446 4,440 6,219 12,072 14,000 15,340 Tax (957) (1,159) (1,861) (2,594) (2,835) (3,070) Profit After Tax (norm) 2,489 3,281 4,351 9,736 11,643 12,870 Profit After Tax (FRS 3) 2,489 3,281 4,358 9,478 11,165 12,270 Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) EPS - normalised (p) EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p) EPS - (IFRS) (p) Dividend per share (p) Gross Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) BALANCE SHEET Fixed Assets 46,521 46,746 40,329 40,160 44,228 44,278 Intangible Assets 46,050 46,050 39,897 39,897 43,965 43,965 Tangible Assets Investments Current Assets 26,084 40,740 20,555 17,362 11,867 12,374 Debtors 5,724 6,275 3,168 3,725 4,225 4,500 Cash 20,360 34,465 14,249 13,637 7,642 7,874 Other 0 0 3, Current Liabilities (23,984) (29,991) (30,663) (18,397) (15,028) (10,260) Creditors and other short term liabilities (10,248) (12,875) (11,788) (8,936) (8,828) (8,635) Short term borrowings (13,736) (17,116) (18,875) (9,461) (6,200) (1,625) Long Term Liabilities (37,080) (36,795) (70) (2,951) 0 0 Long term borrowings (31,908) (31,368) (70) (2,951) 0 0 Other long term liabilities (5,172) (5,427) Net Assets 11,541 20,700 30,151 36,174 41,067 46,392 CASH FLOW Operating Cash Flow 5,304 10,007 10,416 12,408 14,154 15,515 Net Interest (2,675) (2,418) (2,718) (333) 0 90 Tax (3,419) (3,873) (3,133) (4,469) (2,665) (2,953) Capex (258) (321) (177) (27) (100) (150) Acquisitions/disposals (4,300) 0 Financing Dividends (2,057) (6,872) (7,695) Net Cash Flow (1,048) 3,395 4,388 6, ,807 Opening net debt/(cash) 31,205 25,284 14,019 4,696 (1,225) (1,442) HP finance leases initiated Discontinued/demerged 6,969 7,870 4,935 (420) 0 0 Closing net debt/(cash) 25,284 14,019 4,696 (1,225) (1,442) (6,249) Source: NAHL Group data, Edison Investment Research. Note: P&L and cash flow data exclude the impact of discontinued product and business, except where identified. Balance sheet data are as reported and retain elements of these discontinued items. NAHL Group 24 March

7 Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ( Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number ) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [ ] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [ ]. DISCLAIMER Copyright 2015 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by NAHL Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are wholesale clients for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a personalised service and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a class service provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) FTSE FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE s express written consent. Frankfurt +49 (0) NAHL Schumannstrasse Group 34b 24 March High Holborn 245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor Level 25, Aurora Place Level 15, 171 Featherston St Frankfurt Germany London +44 (0) London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom New York , New York US Sydney +61 (0) Phillip St, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia Wellington +64 (0) Wellington 6011 New Zealand