Applications of Risk Analysis in Border Security Niyazi Onur Bakir, University of Southern California

Transcription

1 Application of Rik Analyi in Border Security Niyazi Onur Bakir, Univerity of Southern California 1. Overview Reearch Accomplihment Security of Incoming Truck to U.S. Southwetern Port of Entry..... Rik Analyi of Advanced Spectrocopic Portal A Stochatic Game Model to Evaluate Overea Cargo Securtiy Port Security Reource Allocation Tool Evaluation of New Technology to Protect Airliner Againt Platic Exploive Threat Applied Relevance Rik-Baed Reource Allocation Border ecurity Collaborative Project Reearch Product Publication and Report Preentation Model, Databae, and Software Tool and Product Education and Outreach Product Overview I have been working on the border ecurity cae tudy in the pat 3 year, focuing primarily on maritime and container ecurity. Thi year, I expanded my reearch on everal border ecurity problem that were identified in previou year uing traditional deciion and rik analyi tool a well a tochatic game. The model developed thi year covered different apect of container ecurity paradigm, extending from ecurity of incoming truck from Mexico to optimal reource allocation to reduce the rik of terrorim uing overea cargo. My goal ha been to evaluate different alternative comparatively to improve ecurity at variou node of container movement and provide inight into how we could do better with limited reource. The firt work ha been on ecurity of incoming truck from Mexico. Thi tudy wa largely developed in the previou calendar year. However, it wa ubmitted to publication in Deciion Analyi in thi calendar year, and received poitive repone from referee. After major reviion, the tudy wa finally accepted in thi journal and will appear in thi journal by December 008. The main focu of thi tudy i comparative evaluation of tranportation ecurity and inpection equipment to reduce the rik of radiological material tranfer through outhwetern border. A rik analyi tool developed for thi paper wa alo ubmitted to Rik Analyi Workbench for ue by policy analyt. Going in parallel with the truck tudy wa cot-benefit analyi of Advanced Spectrocopic Portal that DNDO i planning to deploy to port of entry. There have been major criticim againt thi program and DNDO contacted CREATE Director Prof. Detlof von Winterfeldt to conduct an independent tudy. We developed a deciion tree model to undertand how rik profile at U.S. port behave a a function critical parameter that largely impact the ecurity ituation at U.S. port. The tudy i complete and will be ubmitted for publication in Rik Analyi after DHS review. In addition to reearch uing traditional rik and deciion analyi tool, we alo developed a tochatic game model in collaboration with Dr. Erim Karde to undertand how we hould allocate reource in repone to terrorit behavior. The main advantage of tochatic game i incorporation of terrorit behavior into the model while maintaining the practical validity of traditional rik analyi tool. Thi tudy alo point out to the importance of early defene. Thi tudy ha already been ubmitted to Naval "Thi reearch wa upported by the United State Department of Homeland Security through the Center for Rik and Economic Analyi of Terrorim Event (CREATE) under grant number 007-ST However, any opinion, finding, and concluion or recommendation in thi document are thoe of the author and do not necearily reflect view of the United State Department of Homeland Security."

2 Reearch Logitic and a repone from the journal editor and reviewer wa till pending a of September 30, 008. In addition to reearch accomplihment, I wa involved in two high profile project in thi calendar year. The firt project i on reource allocation to improve ecurity at Port of Lo Angele and Long Beach. (POLA/LB). The goal i to develop a tactical tool that could help POLA/LB ecurity director make reource allocation deciion to counter daily terrorim threat. Mapping of the baeline rik profile of each terminal and pier i already complete. Thi i a multi-year project and in coordination with the other reearcher in thi tudy, I plan to finih the reource allocation prototype in the coming calendar year. The econd project i conducted in coordination with the LAX homeland ecurity department and in collaboration with Technion Intitute in Irael. The goal i to evaluate a new technology developed at Technion to improve platic exploive detection capabilitie at nation airport. I have developed the deciion tree model that we will ue after feeding in the required information that will be collected from ubject matter expert and experiment. The next tage in thi project i the experiment to undertand the practical validity of the tool. A of September 30, 008, an experiment protocol wa till in writing. My reearch on container ecurity ha been uing information from variou report on the ecurity ituation at variou node of the upply chain and the port themelve. Rather than evaluating a ingle ecurity alternative, I focued on comparative evaluation of ecurity alternative. Thi line of reearch i expected to motivate more reearcher in thi domain to hift their focu on thee problem and explore cot effectivene of alternative defene. The academic product of thee tudie have been received well in the community and are expected to get publihed in high quality journal.. Reearch Accomplihment.1. Security of Incoming Truck to U.S. Southwetern Port of Entry Building on earlier reearch, thi tudy look cloely into the ecurity of commercial truck operation at U.S. outhwetern land port of entry. A qualitative report that dicue the current practice of tranporting good via truck and the ecurity level aociated with it wa releaed in September 006. Thi report concluded that certain meaure have to be taken to reduce cargo tranfer point, improve intermodal tranportation ecurity in Mexico and congetion at land port of entry hould be taken to help truck move more efficiently and ecurely acro the border. A follow-up quantitative analyi wa conducted during 007 and 008 calendar year and a paper on thi tudy wa accepted in Deciion Analyi. The reult confirm finding in the earlier report in that tranportation ecurity technology hould be a priority in countering terrorim rik wherea any ecurity olution that could reduce fale alarm at U.S. land port of entry may be beneficial even if it doe not offer extra detection capability. Page of 8

3 Percentage of fale alarm, f Probability of attack, p 1 Improve tranportation ecurity 3 Deploy Advanced Spectrocopic Portal to U.S. port of entry Deploy platic cintillator to Mexican port of entry.. Rik Analyi of Advanced Spectrocopic Portal Thi project wa initiated per the requet of Dometic Nuclear Office (DNDO) to conduct an independent cot-benefit analyi of Advanced Spectrocopic Portal (ASP). We analyzed the trade-off between the inpection performance and fale alarm generated by the technology. We conidered four alternative deployment trategie: 1) Excluive deployment of ASP replacing all the PVT currently deployed at U.S. port of entry, ) Sequential deployment of ASP with PVT, 3) Excluive deployment of PVT, 4) Stop deployment of new portal monitor and continue inpection with the current capacity. The baeline olution recommend equential deployment that make ue of both technologie. However, thi olution i found to be enitive to the probability of attack attempt, the type of weapon hipped through port of entry, the probability of ucceful detonation, detection probabilitie and the extra deterrence that each alternative may provide. We alo illutrate that the lit of mot ignificant parameter depend heavily on the dollar equivalent of overall conequence and the probability of attack attempt. For low probability and low conequence cenario, fale alarm related parameter are found to be ignificant a well. Our extenive exploratory analyi how that for mot parametric combination either excluive deployment of ASP or equential deployment of both technologie i optimal. ASP become a more valuable alternative if the cot of fale alarm and the probability of attempt are high. However, we alo how that if ASP fail to improve detection capability, then extra benefit they offer in reducing fale alarm may not jutify their ma deployment. Thi paper i currently reviewed by DHS and will be ubmitted to Rik Analyi once it pae their review. Page 3 of 8

4 ASP p A No Nuclear q A RDD 1-q A HEU h A Plutonium 1-h A r A No 1-r A u A No 1-u A t ANo 1-t A 1-p A PVT/ASP Tree i repeated with exactly the ame equence of event. Nuclear PVT No RPM p N q N RDD 1-q N HEU h N Plutonium 1-h N r N No u N No 1-u N t N No 1-t N No 1-r N 1-p N.3. A Stochatic Game Model to Evaluate Overea Cargo Securtiy Thi project wa initiated in collaboration with Dr. Erim Karde to apply tochatic game methodology to container ecurity problem and undertand how ecurity reource allocation deciion hould be made in repone to adverary behavior. The final product of thi tudy i complete and ha already been ubmitted for publication in Naval Reearch Logitic. A repone from thi journal editorial board wa till pending a of September 30, 008. In thi tudy, we conider two player; an attacker who plan to end a nuclear weapon, and a defender who conider two alternative at two node of interdiction along the upply chain. The attacker can chooe the path of the container, the method of intruion and the target, wherea the defender chooe whether to improve tranportation ecurity and whether to improve inpection at dometic eaport. The bae cae reult ugget that the attacker chooe to attack by ending the nuclear weapon under the diguie of a front company and through a foreign eaport that doe not participate in the Container Security Initiative. The target of choice i likely to be a dometic eaport depite the higher economic toll of an urban area attack. The defender, on the other hand, chooe to improve tranportation ecurity, but not inpection at dometic eaport if the attacker plan to detonate the weapon before the authoritie get a chance to act on it. We run enitivity analye to determine the mot ignificant parameter of the model, and ee how the baeline deciion change a a function of thee ignificant parameter. The reult in general recommend trong ecurity meaure along the entire upply chain rather than imply at the United State port of entry. They alo ugget that terrorit will probably execute the attack a oon a the weapon reache United State hore to reduce the probability of interdiction. The reult of thi tudy are encouraging in that it give further inight into optimal reource allocation incorporating the adaptive nature of the adverary. We plan to continue developing tochatic game model to explore reource allocation in container ecurity under other cenario and expand on our current model. Page 4 of 8

5 .4. Port Security Reource Allocation Tool Thi i collaborative tudy with other variou reearcher under CREATE umbrella to develop a tactical tool that help POLA/LB ecurity official make daily reource allocation deciion. The collaborator are Dr. Iaac Maya, Dr. Mike Oroz, Prof. Petro Ioannu, Dr. Henry Willi and Dr. Don Kleinmutz. Thi project ha everal piece. The mot major piece that I am involved with eek to define the baeline rik profile at the port complex, identify countermeaure to improve the rik profile and quantify their poitive impact on the baeline rik profile. To thi end, a baeline rik profile wa created with the help of two DHS cholar over the ummer of 008 under my direction uing open internet reource and after everal viit to the port. To reduce the complexity in mathematical calculation, a imilarity matrix ha been developed a well. The next tage i to develop model to quantify the rik reducing impact of countermeaure alternative and to undertand the microeconomic impact of terminal and pier cloure. After thi tage i completed, we will utilize the reource allocation expertie that our team ha, and combine it with the oftware ide to finalize the tool. The oftware i alo under development in parallel to the development in the rik analyi ide a well..5. Evaluation of New Technology to Protect Airliner Againt Platic Exploive Threat Thi project i currently underway in collaboration with Technion Intitute in Irael and homeland ecurity department at LAX. CREATE bring in the rik analyi expertie in thi project. A rik analyi model wa developed in thi calendar year. The model incorporate variou ecurity layer at LAX and the checkpoint. The goal i to explore the mot effective way to ue thi new platic exploive detection technology. We are currently in the proce of populating the model with relevant Page 5 of 8

6 probability and conequence information. A of September 30, 008, a protocol for experiment with the tool wa till in writing. Thi protocol i baed on meeting with LAX and Tranportation Security Adminitration (TSA) peronnel. We plan to finalize the project by April 009. There i an academic component of thi project a well. I believe finding of thi tudy could be publihed a an academic paper in 009. D No D 1 No No No D No D 1 : Ue TATP detection kit for inpection entering terminal area D No No No D : Ue TATP detection kit for carry-on luggage : Ue TATP detection kit for checked-in luggage No D 1 No D No No No No No 3. Applied Relevance 3.1. Rik-Baed Reource Allocation My reearch ha a lot of relevance for rik baed reource allocation in container ecurity. Model populated through extenive literature review and data collection are ued to evaluate variou alternative to improve ecurity comparatively. I believe the reult will provide inight to policy and rik analyt. The focu on the project that are decribed above are generally on ecuring upply chain and port and variou technologie and policie hould be implemented to optimize allocation of limited reource. 3.. Border ecurity My reearch i on border ecurity and mot of the work decribed above i relevant to land border and maritime ecurity. The tudy on the ecurity of commercial truck along the outhwetern border ha relevance to land border ecurity wherea the tudy on evaluation of ASP i relevant to maritime Page 6 of 8

7 ecurity. The tochatic game tudy focue excluively on maritime ecurity. All thee project are on containerized cargo ecurity. On the applied project ide, the port rik baed reource allocation tool addree maritime ecurity concern at the nation bigget port complex. The focu i on port infratructure ecurity rather than cargo ecurity. The platic exploive tudy at LAX ha relevance to air border. If the tool evaluated in thi tudy i found to be cot effective, then it i expected to be ued in other airport in U.S. and elewhere. In thi regard, thi project i expected to have a ignificant air border ecurity impact. 4. Collaborative Project The project on port ecurity i conducted in collaboration with the POLA/LB homeland ecurity office. We do not eek funding from them. Our goal i to help a local takeholder make a critical deciion in a rik informed manner. With their input, we are developing model that lay down the current rik profile at the port complex and the impact of elected countermeaure in reducing thi rik. Thi model will be armed with a rik allocation module that will help the port authoritie improve daily ecurity deciion. We alo collaborate with ISI in thi project, and their help i ought on the oftware ide. Under eparate funding from DHS, we are alo collaborating with the LAX homeland ecurity office and Technion Intitute in Irael to evaluate a new technology that detect platic exploive. My role i to develop a rik analyi model. After the experiment in Lo Angele and Heathrow Airport are completed, we will obtain the final reult a to whether the ue of new technology i jutified. 5. Reearch Product Reearch Product (Pleae detail below) # 5a # of peer-reviewed journal report publihed 5a # of peer-reviewed journal report accepted for publication 1 5a # of non-peer reviewed publication and report 5a # of cholarly journal citation of publihed report 5b # of cholarly preentation (conference, workhop, eminar) 5b # of outreach preentation (non-technical group, general public) 5c # of product delivered to DHS, other Federal agencie, or State/Local 5c # of product in commercialization pipeline (product not yet to market) 5c # of product introduced to market 5.1. Publication and Report Publication 1. Bakir, N. O., Karde, E., A Stochatic Game Model on Overea Cargo Container Security, Naval Reearch Logitic, under reviion. Bakir, N. O., von Winterfeldt, D., I Better Nuclear Weapon Capability Jutified? working paper, Bakir, N. O., A Deciion Tree Model for Evaluating Countermeaure to Secure Cargo at Southwetern Port of Entry, under review, Deciion Analyi, Savachkin, A., Bakir, N. O., Uribe A., An Optimal Countermeaure Policy to Mitigate Random Capacity Diruption in a Production Sytem, International Journal of Agile Sytem and Manufacturing, Vol 3, No.1-, 4-17, 008 Ref x x x Not Ref x Page 7 of 8

8 5.. Preentation Conference Bakir, N., Savachkin, A., Uribe, A., Capacity Diruption and Aociated Countermeaure, POMS Conference, San Diego, CA, 008 Bakir, N., Cargo Security at Land Port of Entry, POMS Conference 008, San Diego, CA Bakir, N., Karde, E., A Stochatic Game Model on Overea Cargo Container Security, INFORMS Annual Meeting, Wahington D.C., Oct 1, 008 Bakir, N., Securing Cargo at Southwetern Port of Entry, INFORMS 007, Seattle, WA 5.3. Model, Databae, and Software Tool and Product A rik analyi tool to evaluate the ecurity of commercial truck along the outhwetern border ha been completed and delivered to RAW during thi calendar year. Another tool for the cot-benefit analyi of Advanced Spectrocopic Portal that wa developed for the DNDO tudy will be delivered a oon a the paper pae the DHS review and i ready to be ubmitted a a journal publication. Upgrade on thee tool may be made a circumtance warrant. In addition, a oftware tool to analyze the daily ecurity threat at POLA/LB i currently under development a a part of the port ecurity project. Major development on thi tool are expected during the next calendar year. 6. Education and Outreach Product Education and Outreach Initiative (Pleae detail below) # # of tudent upported (funded by CREATE) # of tudent involved (funded by CREATE + any other program) # of tudent graduated # of contact with DHS, other Federal agencie, or State/Local (committee) # of exiting coure modified with new material # of new coure developed # of new certificate program developed # of new degree program developed Two tudent were upervied during thi calendar year. Both were DHS ummer viitor working on the port ecurity project. They helped me develop the current rik profile at the port complex. No outreach activitie were conducted during thi period. Page 8 of 8