EQUITY WEEKLY STRATEGY

Transcription

1 Acciones & Valores Gerencia de Investigaciones Económicas EQUITY WEEKLY STRATEGY Investigaciones Económicas

2 Falls in Crisis In the last 5 years the stock market has experienced sharp declines. Two of the most recent were the financial crisis in the U.S. ( ), and the European debt crisis that reached one of its strongest points in 2011 and continues until today. In 2008 market crash led to the S & P500 to retreat about 48% in less than 6 months. As a result of large falls on Wall Street, the contagion to other markets was imminent. In the same period the IGBC fell more than 30% and many of the assets that have shaped this index did so in greater proportion. In 2011, even the falls in the U.S. market were lower, reaching only setbacks of 20%, meanwhile the impact on the Colombian stock follow throw. Despite the low exposure of the income of most Colombian companies into international markets, we found a strong correlation between domestic asset prices and international markets. The emerging market umbrella has not served to cover the local market of volatility in developed markets. Notably, in the local market there are some assets that offer greater strength in times of stress or high volatility and would operate as a shelter in future crises. Corficol, Bogota, Aval and Nutresa have shown strong resistance to decreases in the international stock markets, going back much less than the stock indexes. Furthermore, within assets more recoil or increased exposure to international crisis companies are exploration and production of crude traded on the local market, which like oil react more than proportionally to the volatilities from the global concerns. Also, a factor associated with resistance or eventual correlation of the assets in the local market before the volatility of international markets, responds to the fundamentals of the companies that slow falls to positive outlook. 1

3 GEA Financiero Hidrocarburos Energético Retail Industria Ingresos Utilidades Igresos Utilidades Ingresos Utilidades GRUPOSURA 96,658 78, , , , , % 18.5% 174.4% 20.5% INVARGOS 1,465, ,264 1,620, ,841 1,561, , % -3.6% 102.0% -0.1% CEMARGOS 848, ,425 1,055, ,496 1,048, , % -0.7% -61.9% -46.7% NUTRESA 1,149,123 57,645 1,237,546 59,604 1,320,000 70, % 6.7% 21.4% 17.4% BANCOLOMBIA 1,390, ,527 1,753, ,570 1,790, , % 2.1% -7.9% -20.3% AVAL 430, , , , , , % 6.8% 56.7% 27.5% DAVIVIENDA 1,764, , , , , , % -30.5% 17.1% -30.2% BVC 16,126 5,904 18,958 11,465 17,222 5, % -9.2% -0.7% -48.9% PMG (CAD) % -9.4% -65.2% -6.9% PREC (CAD) % -3.4% -35.6% -12.9% CNEC (CAD) % 14.5% 9.9% 167.8% ECOPETROL 16,218,209 3,751,299 17,970,416 4,273,942 18,061,918 4,455, % 0.5% 18.8% 4.2% BIOMAX 246,832 1, ,192 4, ,307 6, % 3.0% 337.4% 37.5% EEB 330,896 56, , , ,749 64, % -6.1% 14.3% -88.0% ISAGEN 409, , , , , , % 0.2% -9.1% -7.9% ISA 1,059,791 79,791 1,141,663 99,457 1,095,823 73, % -4.0% -8.3% -26.4% ÉXITO 2,101,829 65,645 2,455,425 93,754 2,357,208 54,216 12% -4% -17% -42.2% PFAVTA 1,610,142 2,025 1,588,445 47,539 1,540,792 46,113-4% -3% 2177% -3.0% CONCONCRETO 100,878 6, ,072 13, ,770 12,019 6% -3% 100% -8.0% *Cifras en Millones de Pesos y en Millones de Dólares Canadienses según se indique 2T T 2012 Est. 2T 2011 VS Estimation Corporate Results 2Q Colombia Ingresos 1T 2012 VS 2T 2011 VS Utilidades 1T 2012 VS Comparing 2011Q2 results to 2012Q2 expected results; they show an increase in revenue for 15 of 19 companies analyzed and increased earnings for 12 of 19. Also, comparing 2012Q1company results to 2012Q2 show an increase on revenue for 8 of 19 companies and utilities for 11of19 companies. These preliminary estimates, will give the overall expectation of further declines in the local equity market. Specific results that the market will focus, Bancolombia, GRUPOSURA, Success, Ecopetrol and companies engaged in upstream oil sector. In this line, we hope that Ecopetrol income for the 2Q will be of $ billion (+11.4% vs. Q2 11) and net profit of $ 4.45 billion (+18.8% vs. Q2 11). Noteworthy the recent recovery in international oil prices, and for the next months, to keep levels above $ 90 continue the bet on oil state and its expansion plan, which settled some doubts in line with the decreases in future cash flows. Asset valuations subtracted or who are still included in the price expectations of positive results, in line with Q2 estimates; GRUPOSURA (P / BV: 0.98), Nutresa (P / BV: 1.51) and Endorsement (P / VL: 1.30). 2 Compañía Fecha Publicación Resultados Confirmado /Esperado Ecopetrol SA martes, 24 de julio de 2012 C Exito SA martes, 24 de julio de 2012 C Mineros SA miércoles, 25 de julio de 2012 E Fabricato SA miércoles, 25 de julio de 2012 E Gruposura jueves, 26 de julio de 2012 C Cemargos jueves, 26 de julio de 2012 C Enka jueves, 26 de julio de 2012 E Celsia viernes, 27 de julio de 2012 E Coltejer viernes, 27 de julio de 2012 E Valorem viernes, 27 de julio de 2012 E Grupo Argos viernes, 27 de julio de 2012 C Conconcreto viernes, 27 de julio de 2012 E Tablemac viernes, 27 de julio de 2012 E Grupo Nutresa viernes, 27 de julio de 2012 C Biomax viernes, 27 de julio de 2012 E ISA lunes, 30 de julio de 2012 C Interbolsa lunes, 30 de julio de 2012 E Isagen lunes, 30 de julio de 2012 C Odinsa lunes, 30 de julio de 2012 E Paz del Rio lunes, 30 de julio de 2012 E Bancolombia miércoles, 01 de agosto de 2012 C Petrominerales viernes, 03 de agosto de 2012 E Corficolombiana viernes, 03 de agosto de 2012 E Helm Bank SA viernes, 03 de agosto de 2012 E Davivienda viernes, 03 de agosto de 2012 E Pacific Rubiales Energy jueves, 09 de agosto de 2012 E EEB lunes, 13 de agosto de 2012 E ETB lunes, 13 de agosto de 2012 E Grupo AVAL martes, 14 de agosto de 2012 E AviancaTaca martes, 14 de agosto de 2012 E Source: ACVA, Bloomberg

4 Positions Recommended IGBC Last Price Pesos Variac. Anual ECOPETROL ,4% Buy EXITO ,7% Sell PFBCOLOM ,8% Buy PREC ,8% Buy CEMARGOS ,2% Sell EEB ,2% Keep Weekly Recom Comments Buy the expectation of financial performance for which predicted an increase of +18% Y / Y, despite the fall in oil prices, Level Goal $ 5,180 pesos to break the $ 4980 is strong resistance where In liena with corporate earnings estimates suggest Q2 sales over $ 30,000, with option to repurchase may decline to levels close to $ 27,500. In the case of Bancolombia are technically buying zone betw een $ 26,770 and $ 27,300 - Possibility of decline after the delivery of results on Monday, August 1, results for which we expect a negative result (-7.9% Y / Y) Despite low expectations for the company's revenues (-6.0% Y / Y), the recent promotion of improved oil prices for the company's expectations for the next quarter. Transportation issues, the approval of environmental permits and falling oil prices are effects that has already included the price. Medium-term goal $ 43,000 Taking profit on the 7,300, which would imply a price prior to the issuance of $ 12,580, (Invargos 17,000), up 14% to the low est recorded in the last 6 months. Data released by DANE show declines in sales of cement that could indicate slow dow n in the second utility trimestre.estimación The asset has stabilized within a side channel, discounting the obvious discouragement that generated the majority shareholder appears to be deducted from the asset's fundamental value GRUPOSURA ,1% Buy We maintain Buy recommendation, earnings results next Thursday so we expect a positive market reaction f or the second time to consolidate the results of Sura Asset Management. ISA ,5% Keep The asset is located in a side channel with the 12,000 strong roof. The entry into operation of new projects in which the companies have been investing refers to the possibility of rising in the second half of the year. INVERARGOS ,4% Buy Suggested purchase betw een $ 16,000 and $ 17,000 where the asset level is resistance. Shortterm goal of over $ 17,500 and medium-term structural betw een $ 18,000 and $ 18,500. ISAGEN ,0% Sell During the week profit taking levels betw een $ 2,500 and $ 2,550 where no resistance to the last 3 months. Point repurchase $ 2,250 and $ 2,300 CELSIA ,8% Sell Making profits for buyers of first half of July. Marked decline in trading volumes. Chance of overw eight at levels below the $ 4,300 in connection w ith the adjustment. FABRICATO 92 28,9% Sell Tip of sale before possible clearing of repo company for increased security. The value of repos is about 37% of the market capitalization of the asset. PFAVAL ,1% Buy Estimates for the 1st quarter results indicate possible valuation of assets, which in recent weeks minimum touched November In the medium term correction of the asset should have half of the side channel w here it has moved $ 1,230 NUTRESA ,8% Buy Buy at levels below $ 21,000 pesos, in the medium term objective over $ 21,650, good expectations for earnings grow th of the group (+21% Y / Y) PFDAVVNDA ,5% Buy Purchase during the w eek w ith the $ 22,280 goal, next resistance level CORFICOLCF ,5% Keep Estimates for the 1st semester results are positive, any increase in earnings per share of which is decreed dividends from October to February next year (6.9% Yiel Div) CNEC ,1% Buy Estimated results for the fiscal year end positive asset reaches the low est since 2009, possibility of recovery dependent on oil price movements. PFAVTA ,6% Sell Recommendation sale prior to operating results, ongoing promotions crude recente weakenthe trend show n by the asset. Sale over $ 4,000 and no correction target to $ 4,300 PMGC ,0% Sell Notables descensos en la producción y proximidad a los resultados operacionales enmarcan un mal escenario para la compañía que no ha logrado reestablecer sus niveles típicos de ingresos, evidenciando la caída del éxito exploratorio. BVC 30-25,3% Sell PFHELMBANK ,0% Buy The return of rumors about the bank's sale to an international participant, recent transactions in the local market on average 3x the assets of financial institutions. Intrinsic Price $ 284 per share. 3

5 Acciones & Valores Gerencia de Investigaciones Económicas Global Disclaimer This document is informative. Acciones & Valores is not responsible for the interpretation of such information. But it does not cover all aspects that an investor may consider necessary or desirable to analyze their decision to participate in the transaction here mentioned, because it is presented in abbreviated form. Therefore, it is necessary for investors who intend to participate in transactions, and for purposes of having full and absolute accuracy, consult all the documents provided by the promotion. Similarly, investors they should, on their own legal and financial analysis for purposes of taking any investment decision. Values and numbers entered here are obtained from market sources believed to be reliable such as Bloomberg, Reuters and the Issuers. The scores made in the report should not be considered investment advice nor as substitutes for the grades given by certified credit agencies such as Moody's or Standard & Poor's. These ratings are only quantitative, not qualitative factors include and depend on the financial information available on the market in time to be prepared. The opinions, estimates and projections in this report reflect the current judgment of the author to the report date, and clarifies that the content of the information contained herein may be subject to change without notice. The remuneration of the authors is not associated with the results of the report or the recommendations made. The presentation and any preliminary paper on the products mentioned here do not constitute a public offer binding, therefore, both presentation and any other document may be supplemented or corrected Acciones & Valores S.A. Héctor Wilson Tovar García Análisis Macroeconómico Head of Research wtovar@accivalores.com (0571) (1300) Ana Milena Franco Análisis Renta Fija Fixed Income Analyst Ana.franco@accivalores.com (0571) (1833) Cristian Camilo Lancheros Análisis Mercados Internacionales International Markets Analyst Cristian.lancheros@accivalores.com (0571) (1306) Jorge Eduardo Bello Análisis Renta Variable Equity Analyst jorge.bello@accivalores.com Roberto Carlos Paniagua Kelly Mateus Alejandro Alayón Rocio Alayón