Three Trade Association Small Business Data Bases

Transcription

1 Three Trade Association Small Business Data Bases William J. Dennis, Jr. Senior Research Fellow NFIB Research Foundation Academy of Management Chicago, IL August, 2009

2 Three Data Bases Small Business Economic Trends National Small Business Poll 411smallbusinessfacts.com New Business in America: The Firms and Their Owners Not on the Web

3 Small Business Economic Trends Topic current and forecast economic data, e.g., selling prices, employment, credit conditions, inventories. 37 questions Data Collection member survey. Mail. Quarterly between Oct., 1973 and Jan., 1986; monthly since. Currently, about 12,000 observations a year Data availability both micro and aggregate series

4 SBET Strengths Longevity 37 years (time series) Consistent most questions unchanged over time Frequent monthly Reliable questions patterned after Un. of Mich. s Survey of Consumer Sentiment Performance demonstrated subsequently Unique nothing like it in the world No cost to user

5 SBET Weaknesses Sample from trade association membership, respondents disproportionately large, rural, manufacturers Response rate between 33 percent and 17 percent Trends are trustworthy; levels are not Some questions do not date to Tweaks made in 1982 and 1986 Micro-responses cannot be linked over time

6 Currency Released the second Tuesday of each month press release with summary results Anyone can be on the mailing list (now consists principally of media, investment firms, and government officials

7 Net Percent EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to April Quarter 2009 (Seasonally Adjusted) YEAR NFIB Research Foundation

8 Net Percent PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to April Quarter 2009 (Seasonally Adjusted) Actual Planned YEAR NFIB Research Foundation

9 Percent of Firms THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 11 PREDICTED ACTUAL Q3 BASED ON JUNE DATA 8.8% '00 '03 '06 '09

10 Wall Street is a Major User

11 Wall Street Analysis

12 More Wall Street Analysis

13 National Small Business Poll Topic various, each Poll is a different topic, e. g., Families in Business, IT Issues, Payroll, Innovation Data Collection stratified random sample of small employers (<250 empl.) from D&B files. N 750 per Poll. Telephone. Conducted by The Gallup Organization. Data Availability micro data with NAICs, employees, or zip consolidated

14 NSBP Strengths Sampling and survey conduct Stratification includes 200 cases of 20+ employee firms in each survey 63 separate polls (variety) Isolated facts (unusual questions); research ideas Preview survey questions, response, and Ns on-line No cost to user

15 NSBP Weaknesses Lacks depth, detail Questions gather general information, facts, evaluations; not hypothesis driven Samples always of general population, meaning problems, issues of subsets not (infrequently) addressed Profitability (finance), growth measures poor

16 Sample Topics in the Series Workplace Safety Reinvesting in the Business Contributions to Community Business Structure Training Employees Energy Consumption IT Issues Credit Cards

17 411 Home Page

18 411 Data Page

19 New Business in America Antecedent to the PSED 3 year longitudinal survey Businesses <18 months old Yr cases Yr cases Yr cases Could not identify final status of only 1 case Sampling frame NFIB membership file

20 Sample Topics Addressed Strategy same questions all three years Major changes Sales problems Time allocation Capital sources and additions Franchised sales Expected success Reasons for entry Personal satisfaction Changes in ownership structure Information sources Preparation, including prior business experience

21 Why Consider Using the Set? PSED more comprehensive, more recent, reaches people earlier in the process, and is methodologically superior Why use the New Business in America set? Easier to use; less intimidating Some differences and emphases Annual intervals Know the three year survival status of everyone; increases number of cases to work with

22 Publications from New Bus. In Am. Do Entrepreneurial Goals Matter? Resource Allocation in New Owner- Managed Firms. Dunkelberg, Moore, Scott, Stull, under review, 2009 Survival of the fittest? Entry human capital and the persistence of underperforming firms. Gimeno, Folta, Cooper, ASQ, Dec Determinants of satisfaction for entrepreneurs. Cooper, Artz, JBV, 1995

23 More Publications Reinvestment decisions by entrepreneurs: Rational decision-making or escalation of commitment? McCarthy, Schoorman, Cooper, JBV, Jan 1993 Entrepreneurship and the initial size of firms. Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg, JBV, September, 1989 Entrepreneurs perceived chances for success. Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg, JBV, Spring 1988