Ocado: Coming to America

Transcription

1 Deutsche Bank Markets Research North America United States Consumer Retailing / Food & Drug Chains Industry Food Retail E- Commerce Date 26 May 2015 Industry Update Ocado: Coming to America Karen Short Research Analyst (+1) karen.short@db.com Ryan Gilligan, CFA Research Associate (+1) ryan.gilligan@db.com Potential Partnership with a U.S.-Based Food Retailer In this note, we discuss the potential for Ocado (OCDO.L, Niamh McSherry, Sell), a UK-based online grocery retailer, to partner with a U.S.-based food retailer, by allowing the U.S. retailer to use Ocado s Smart Platform (OSP) an end-to-end ecommerce solution. We provide some detail as to how a deal might be structured and why such a partnership may be very appealing. Many Reasons to Partner on Ecommerce Effort For a U.S.-based food retailer looking to launch an ecommerce business, partnering with Ocado has several advantages. First, Ocado would put up a large portion of the capital in exchange for a one-time set-up fee and a commitment of at least 3 years (which would include variable fees tied to sales). Second, Ocado would handle ongoing maintenance of the equipment (reducing ongoing labor and other expense). Third, Ocado would be responsible for integrating all systems and for software updates. Fourth, partnering with Ocado would provide a first-mover advantage, which is especially critical given that the market is likely to shift more towards online in the future. Background on Ocado Ocado is a UK-based online grocery retailer that operates under Ocado.com and other specialist websites. Ocado generated retail sales of 972 million in FY14 (+15.3% y/y) and has ~12% share of the UK online grocery market, making the company the largest dedicated online grocery retailer in the world. In addition, Ocado operates UK-based retailer Morrisons (MRW.L, Niamh McSherry, Hold) online grocery business. Ocado has publicly stated its desire to leverage its technology and platform to partner with international retailers (e.g., U.S.-based or other international food retailers). Specifically, Ocado plans to offer its Ocado Smart Platform to international partners. Terms of a Potential Deal Breakdown of Fees Any deal would likely include three fees: 1) an initial signing fee: A fee to get the retailer on Ocado s platform. This fee would go towards building the interface required to get Ocado s systems to speak to the retailer s systems. The initial fee would probably be in mid single-digit million pound area; 2) Setup costs for the Customer Fulfillment Center (CFC): This fee will cover the actual costs of setting up the infrastructure inside the DC and would likely be a LSD percent of the investment (e.g., 20 million to 30 million fee to cover a 1.0 billion CFC investment); 3) Annual fee: The fee structure could vary depending on the nature of the relationship. For example, Ocado could charge the retailer a percent of targeted capacity i.e., 3% of $1.5B sales, assuming $1.5B is the existing annual sales capacity of the facility. Or, the company could charge a mid-single percent of draw-down capacity, in the event that the facility is at below-capacity levels. Rationale for a U.S. Retailer: Leveraging Expertise, Mitigating Risks The advantages of partnering with Ocado are clear: 1) Leveraging Ocado s expertise as a best-in-class online grocery operator; 2) Leveraging Ocado s high-quality prepared foods offering; 3) Low capital entry; 4) No depreciation, except on the 4-wall box; 5) Free technology platform; 6) Access to all platform upgrades; and 7) Low barrier to exit. Shane Higgins Research Analyst (+1) shane.higgins@db.com Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015.

2 Ocado Looking Stateside Potential Partnership with a U.S.-Based Food Retailer In this note, we discuss the potential for Ocado (OCDO.L, Niamh McSherry, Sell), a UK-based online grocery retailer, to partner with a U.S.-based food retailer, by allowing the U.S. retailer to use Ocado s Smart Platform (OSP) an end-to-end ecommerce solution. We provide some detail as to how a deal might be structured and why such a partnership may be very appealing. For a U.S.-based food retailer looking to launch an ecommerce business, partnering with Ocado has several advantages. First, Ocado would put up a large portion of the capital in exchange for a one-time set-up fee and a commitment of at least 3 years (which would include variable fees tied to sales). Second, Ocado would handle ongoing maintenance of the equipment (reducing ongoing labor and other expense). Third, Ocado would be responsible for integrating all systems and for software updates. Fourth, partnering with Ocado would provide a first-mover advantage, which is especially critical given that the market is likely to shift more towards online in the future. Background on Ocado Ocado is a UK-based online grocery retailer that operates under Ocado.com and other specialist websites. Ocado generated retail sales of 972 million in FY14 (+15.3% y/y) and has ~12% share of the UK online grocery market, making the company the largest dedicated online grocery retailer in the world. In addition, Ocado operates UK-based retailer Morrisons online grocery business. Ocado has publicly stated its desire to leverage its technology and platform to partner with international retailers (e.g., U.S.-based or other international food retailers). Specifically, Ocado plans to offer its Ocado Smart Platform to international partners. Ocado has industry-leading operating metrics: 99.3% of orders in 2014 were delivered exactly as ordered, up from 99.0% in Deliveries were on time or early 95.3% of the time in 2014 vs. 95.2% in Deliveries per van per week (DPV) were 163 in 2014, up +2% vs CFC efficiency was 145 units per hour in 2014, up +7.4% y/y. SKU count was over 43,000. The Ocado Smart Platform ( OSP ) The Ocado Smart Platform ( OSP ) includes Ocado s proprietary end-to-end software and technology systems, combined with a physical fulfillment solution that together comprise everything a retailer needs to operate an online retail business. Page 2

3 In Ocado s words, the end-to-end software and technology solution is The technology solution enables partners to operate the entire shopping process for their customers using integrated software systems. These include the interfaces with their customers (website, apps), management systems for supply and inventory, management and control systems for the fulfillment centres, and software to optimise delivery routes and to operate contact centres. These systems have been developed in-house over many years for the sole purpose of running and optimising the efficiency of online retail businesses. And, the physical fulfillment solution is We have spent our first 12 years of business life utilizing equipment purchased from mechanical handling equipment providers, and over time have increasingly asked for or developed more enhancements to improve throughput and efficiency. We believe this experience now allows us to make significant further improvements. We have set about designing our own assets and using our knowledge base to develop proprietary physical asset solutions. Our fulfillment asset solution is modular (can be built to almost any size) and scaleable (can be built in multiple phases). It requires less space than the assets we currently use, but is very range friendly. It is fast to deploy and even more efficient in terms of both capital and operating costs. The OSP s technology and infrastructure are used by Morrisons.com. So, the solution is proven, and should operationally be a low-risk way for U.S. food retailers to initiate an ecommerce platform. Improving Capital Efficiencies with CFC 3 an CFC 4 In the UK, Ocado has already announced its CFC 3 and CFC 4. CFC 3 will be the first building to house the company s latest infrastructure. Ocado estimates that a ~ 45 million infrastructure investment will support ~ 350 million in sales; so, a 12.8% investment-to-annual sales ratio. For CFC 4, Ocado expects to spend ~ 135 million, which will support annual sales of ~ 1.2 billion, for an 11.3% investment-to-sales ratio. Over time, the company expects to see continued improvement in the capital investment-to-sales ratio to <10% (note that CFC 2 was 15.5%). The retailer will be responsible for securing the warehouse with the necessary basic specifications (e.g., lighting, loading docks, etc.). The facility should have sufficient capacity to meet projected throughput for at least five years out. Ocado s module is designed to fit into any standard-sized facility (10 11 meters tall), and Ocado would be responsible for bringing in all of the hardware/machinery needed to meet the capacity requirements for at least the first 1-2 years (the equipment is scalable). Any deal would likely include three fees, with two one-time fees and one recurring stream: 1) Initial signing fee (1x): A fee to get the retailer on Ocado s platform. This fee would go towards building the interface required to get Ocado s systems to speak to the retailer s systems, in addition to training and other start-up costs. The initial fee would probably be in the mid-single digit million pound area, but will vary based on how different or similar the retailer s systems are to Ocado s (this signing fee will be independent of the number of CFCs). Page 3

4 2) Set-up costs for the CFC (1x): This fee will cover the actual costs of setting up the infrastructure inside the DC and would likely be a lowsingle digit percent of the investment (e.g., 20 million to 30 million fee to cover a 1.0 billion CFC investment). 3) Annual fee: The fee structure could vary depending on the nature of the relationship, but would generally be in the range of ~3%-5% of annual sales. For example, Ocado could charge the retailer a low single-digit percent of targeted capacity i.e., 3% of $1.5B sales, assuming $1.5B is the existing annual sales capacity of the facility. Or, the company could charge a mid-single percent of draw-down capacity, in the event that the facility is at below-capacity levels (e.g., some may only operate 12 hours/day or 18 hours/day), which would most likely be the case with an initial foray into the U.S. Based on the terms of the contract, there could also be an early termination payment in the event that the retailer decides to cancel the project early this would mitigate Ocado s risk. In addition, given the modular nature of the equipment, Ocado would simply remove the modular technology from the facility and would then be able to re-use a large part of this infrastructure, further mitigating risks to Ocado from any early termination. A Low-Risk, Less Capital-Intensive Approach to Drive Ecommerce Scale The low-risk, fast-to-market nature of the model helps offset the somewhat high-margin (~3%-5% of sales) burden that a relationship might create. Importantly, U.S. retailers would not be locked into long-term agreements, and we believe the U.S. partnerships will have agreements with durations much shorter than Morrison s 20-year deal. In addition, given the modular nature of the system, it can be scaled easily as partners ecommerce businesses grow. U.S. Exclusivity Unlikely Ocado s 20-year agreement with Morrisons gives Morrisons exclusivity in the U.K., which was an acceptable opportunity cost (not being able to partner with anyone else in the UK) for Ocado given that Morrisons will pay Ocado a fee when the online business becomes profitable. Looking to the U.S., Ocado does not plan to offer exclusivity, although the specifics of each contractual relationship will vary, as the company will be offering a very compelling price for the service. Once Ocado explains the rationale as to why they are not offering exclusivity, the retailer usually understands. That is, the retailer already competes head-to-head on a bricks-and-mortar basis the online business would be no different. Rationale for a U.S. Retailer: Leveraging Expertise, Mitigating Risks Prior to the launch, Morrisons had to pay Ocado a 30 million start-up fee and pay for half of the start-up capital, or ~ 80 million. Thus, Morrisons total upfront cost to set-up the online business was ~ 110 million (which did not include the cost of the land or the building). The initial run-rate capacity was ~ 500 million, thus the investment-to-sales ratio was 22.0%. Morrisons is now paying ~ 12 million in annual royalties. The Morrisons agreement while strategically critical for Morrisons would not appeal to many (if any) U.S. retailers. As a result, if a U.S. retailer were to enter an agreement with Ocado, a U.S. retailer would likely pay: 1) ~ midsingle digit million pounds for a signing fee; 2) Low single-digit percent of the cost of the CFC for set-up costs maybe around 20 million as discussed Page 4

5 above (note that the retailer would be responsible for securing the warehouse with the necessary basic specifications, including lighting, loading docks, etc.); and 3) a royalty on sales of ~ 3%-5%. Thus, the first year payment would be very low relative to the one paid by Morrisons. Note that as online sales ramp, the capacity would rise, so the royalty would increase. A retailer could opt to build out the entire infrastructure itself, but it would be prohibitively expensive versus partnering with Ocado. In addition to being more capital-efficient, partnering with Ocado greatly mitigates execution risk and reduces ongoing costs, including depreciation, maintenance, and any potential write-downs. The advantages of partnering with Ocado are clear: 1) Leveraging Ocado s expertise as a best-in-class online grocery operator 2) Leveraging Ocado s high-quality prepared foods offering 3) Low capital entry 4) No depreciation, except on the 4-wall box 5) Free technology platform, and 6) Access to all platform upgrades 7) Low barrier to exit Economics for a Grocer And Other Important Considerations Basically, the 3%-5% of sales paid for a royalty would come right out of the U.S. grocer s gross margins. So, if a grocer is operating with a 32% merchandise margin, then the online sale would generate a 27% gross margin, assuming the grocer pays a 5% royalty. It is important to note, however, that the grocer would not see a similar decline in operating margins. For example, Whole Foods operating margins of ~6.5% would not decline to ~1.5%, because the SG&A margins on the online sales would also be much lower than average. The SG&A associated with the online business would only consist of the 4-wall depreciation, overhead, and labor costs (likely non-union) related to filling orders (the retailer would provide the labor to pick the product and to make the deliveries) these costs would be well below the costs of operating a fullservice grocery store, which have check-out lanes and full-service departments, such as a bakery, deli, and butcher. In addition, the actual margin impact may be mitigated by the grocer having access to Ocado s very high-quality prepared foods offering, so retailers could leverage this expertise to sell more higher-margin foods, thereby mitigating the margin impact of the royalty fee. Importantly, the actual economics early in the relationship may not be as important as the longer-term strategic considerations. That is, a forwardthinking grocer would be wise to seize a first-mover advantage in the online space by partnering with Ocado, particularly since the grocery market is moving in this direction. Page 5

6 Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Additional information available upon request Disclosure checklist Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure Kroger Co. KR.N (USD) 22 May 15 NA Whole Foods Market WFM.OQ (USD) 22 May 15 2 *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States. See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 2. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in securities issued by this company. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators Please also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes. 2. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in securities issued by this company. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Karen Short Page 6

7 Se curity Price Se curity Price 26 May 2015 Historical recommendations and target price: Kroger Co. (KR.N) (as of 5/22/2015) Previous Recommendations Strong Buy Buy Market Perform Underperform Not Rated Suspended Rating Current Recommendations Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating *New Recommendation Structure as of September 9, May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Da te Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb /04/2012: Buy, Target Price Change USD /19/2014: Buy, Target Price Change USD /29/2012: Buy, Target Price Change USD /12/2014: Buy, Target Price Change USD /08/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD /26/2014: Buy, Target Price Change USD /21/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD /21/2015: Buy, Target Price Change USD /10/2013: No Recommendation, Target Price Change USD /30/2015: Buy, Target Price Change USD /25/2013: Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change USD /06/2015: Buy, Target Price Change USD /07/2014: Buy, Target Price Change USD /19/2015: Buy, Target Price Change USD90.00 Historical recommendations and target price: Whole Foods Market (WFM.OQ) (as of 5/22/2015) Previous Recommendations Strong Buy Buy Market Perform Underperform Not Rated Suspended Rating Current Recommendations Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating *New Recommendation Structure as of September 9, May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Da te Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb /25/2012: Buy, Target Price Change USD /10/2013: No Recommendation, Target Price Change USD /08/2012: Buy, Target Price Change USD /25/2013: Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change USD /15/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD /13/2014: Buy, Target Price Change USD /08/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD /07/2014: Downgrade to Hold, Target Price Change USD /31/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD /12/2015: Hold, Target Price Change USD /01/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD /07/2015: Hold, Target Price Change USD40.00 Page 7

8 Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ), we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Notes: 1. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published research. 2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were: Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period Hold: Expected total return (including dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12- month period Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -10% or worse over a 12-month period Regulatory Disclosures 1.Important Additional Conflict Disclosures % 48 % 58 % 43 % 2 % 37 % Buy Hold Sell Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship North American Universe Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. 2.Short-Term Trade Ideas Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the SOLAR link at Page 8

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