Where Will the Pain Be? OCPP s subprime maps can help legislators target education about foreclosure scams addressed by HB 3630
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- Felicia Curtis
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1 Issue Brief February 19, 2008 Where Will the Pain Be? OCPP s subprime maps can help legislators target education about foreclosure scams addressed by HB 3630 The U.S. home loan market is failing in spectacular fashion. A housing bubble created partly by lax consumer protection laws has burst, sending delinquencies and foreclosures soaring and hobbling the national economy. While Oregon has so far avoided the worst of the crisis, recent trends are worrying. Home prices have turned negative in a rising share of neighborhoods and delinquencies are surging. Oregon s housing troubles may only get worse. Driving the housing market s collapse are subprime loans, high-cost loans often issued to borrowers with impaired or no credit history. As of the third quarter of 2007, payment was past due on more than one in 10 subprime loans in Oregon, and the delinquency rate on these loans was rising. 1 Policymakers and elected leaders can best ameliorate the impact of rising subprime delinquencies if they know where subprime loans are concentrated. For instance, the Oregon Legislative Assembly is debating HB 3630, which would establish new consumer protections for borrowers facing foreclosure. If the bill becomes law, legislators and the Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services could target public education efforts about the new law in neighborhoods at higher risk for foreclosures. But where are the potential trouble spots? OCPP has developed maps showing the concentration of subprime loans for each state legislative district (see appendix). Among legislative districts with the highest share of subprime mortgage originations in 2006 were those of legislative leaders: Senate President Peter Courtney (36.9 percent), Senate Republican Leader Ted Ferrioli (31.4 percent), and House Speaker Jeff Merkley (35.7 percent). Even in the district with the lowest share of subprime loans, Representative Sara Gelser s House District 16, one in eight residents who took out a home loan in 2006 (13.0 percent) received a subprime loan. Of course, factors besides subprime loans impact the foreclosure rate. These include declining home prices, a weak local economy, or a high concentration of risky mortgage products besides subprime loans. But with subprime loan delinquencies already high and rising, census tracts in which these loans are concentrated should concern policymakers and those seeking to ameliorate the problem through public education and other means. 1 Based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey. This work is made possible in part by the support of the Ford Foundation, the Governance and Public Policy Program of the Open Society Institute, the Gray Family Fund of the Oregon Community Foundation, the Stoneman Family Foundation, the Oregon Education Association, the Oregon School Employees Association, and by the generous support of organizations and individuals. The Oregon Center for Public Policy is a part of the State Fiscal Analysis Initiative (SFAI) and the Economic Analysis and Research Network (EARN).
2 Senate District 1 House Districts 1 and 2 (Roseburg/Gold Beach/Myrtle Creek) Senate District 1 (Kruse) No. subprime loans: 929 No. loan originations: 3,755 Subprime share: 24.7% Subprime share rank: 15 House District 1 (Krieger) No. subprime loans: 368 No. loan originations: 1,681 Subprime share: 21.9% Subprime share rank: 47 House District 2 (Morgan) No. subprime loans: 561 No. loan originations: 2,074 Subprime share: 27.0% Subprime share rank: 26
3 Senate District 2 House Districts 3 and 4 (Grants Pass/Central Point) Senate District 2 (Atkinson) No. subprime loans: 1,268 No. loan originations: 5,187 Subprime share: 24.4% Subprime share rank: 17 House District 3 (Maurer) No. subprime loans: 554 No. loan originations: 2,313 Subprime share: 24.0% Subprime share rank: 35 House District 4 (Richardson) No. subprime loans: 714 No. loan originations: 2,874 Subprime share: 24.8% Subprime share rank: 32
4 Senate District 3 House Districts 5 and 6 (Ashland/Medford) Senate District 3 (Bates) No. subprime loans: 1,051 No. loan originations: 5,165 Subprime share: 20.3% Subprime share rank: 27 House District 5 (Buckley) No. subprime loans: 361 No. loan originations: 2,231 Subprime share: 16.2% Subprime share rank: 57 House District 6 (Esquivel) No. subprime loans: 690 No. loan originations: 2,934 Subprime share: 23.5% Subprime share rank: 40
5 Senate District 4 House Districts 7 and 8 (Lane-Douglas Counties/Roseburg/Eugene) Senate District 4 (Prozanski) No. subprime loans: 954 No. loan originations: 4,272 Subprime share: 22.3% Subprime share rank: 24 House District 7 (Hanna) No. subprime loans: 559 No. loan originations: 2,123 Subprime share: 26.3% Subprime share rank: 28 House District 8 (Holvey) No. subprime loans: 395 No. loan originations: 2,149 Subprime share: 18.4% Subprime share rank: 54
6 Senate District 5 House Districts 9 and 10 (Coos Bay/Newport) Senate District 5 (Verger) No. subprime loans: 1,129 No. loan originations: 4,665 Subprime share: 24.2% Subprime share rank: 19 House District 9 (Roblan) No. subprime loans: 482 No. loan originations: 1,938 Subprime share: 24.9% Subprime share rank: 31 House District 10 (Cowan) No. subprime loans: 647 No. loan originations: 2,727 Subprime share: 23.7% Subprime share rank: 37
7 Senate District 6 House Districts 11 and 12 (Lane-Linn Counties/Springfield) Senate District 6 (Morrisette) No. subprime loans: 1,422 No. loan originations: 5,076 Subprime share: 28.0% Subprime share rank: 8 House District 11 (Barnhart) No. subprime loans: 557 No. loan originations: 2,375 Subprime share: 23.5% Subprime share rank: 41 House District 12 (Beyer) No. subprime loans: 865 No. loan originations: 2,701 Subprime share: 32.0% Subprime share rank: 8
8 Senate District 7 House Districts 13 and 14 (Eugene/Santa Clara/Junction City) Senate District 7 (Walker) No. subprime loans: 1,371 No. loan originations: 5,467 Subprime share: 25.1% Subprime share rank: 14 House District 13 (Nathanson) No. subprime loans: 450 No. loan originations: 2,181 Subprime share: 20.6% Subprime share rank: 48 House District 14 (C. Edwards) No. subprime loans: 921 No. loan originations: 3,286 Subprime share: 28.0% Subprime share rank: 18
9 Senate District 8 House Districts 15 and 16 (Albany/Corvallis) Senate District 8 (Morse) No. subprime loans: 944 No. loan originations: 4,193 Subprime share: 22.5% Subprime share rank: 23 House District 15 (Olson) No. subprime loans: 738 No. loan originations: 2,610 Subprime share: 28.3% Subprime share rank: 16 House District 16 (Gelser) No. subprime loans: 206 No. loan originations: 1,583 Subprime share: 13.0% Subprime share rank: 60
10 Senate District 9 House Districts 17 and 18 (Stayton/Scio/Molalla/Silverton) Senate District 9 (Girod) No. subprime loans: 1,541 No. loan originations: 5,145 Subprime share: 30.0% Subprime share rank: 6 House District 17 (Sprenger) No. subprime loans: 764 No. loan originations: 2,389 Subprime share: 32.0% Subprime share rank: 9 House District 18 (Gilliam) No. subprime loans: 777 No. loan originations: 2,756 Subprime share: 28.2% Subprime share rank: 17
11 Senate District 10 House Districts 19 and 20 (Salem) Senate District 10 (Winters) No. subprime loans: 1,591 No. loan originations: 6,006 Subprime share: 26.5% Subprime share rank: 11 House District 19 (Cameron) No. subprime loans: 834 No. loan originations: 3,016 Subprime share: 27.7% Subprime share rank: 21 House District 20 (Berger) No. subprime loans: 757 No. loan originations: 2,990 Subprime share: 25.3% Subprime share rank: 29
12 Senate District 11 House Districts 21 and 22 (Salem/Gervais/Woodburn) Senate District 11 (Courtney) No. subprime loans: 1,718 No. loan originations: 4,651 Subprime share: 36.9% Subprime share rank: 1 House District 21 (Clem) No. subprime loans: 914 No. loan originations: 2,513 Subprime share: 36.4% Subprime share rank: 2 House District 22 (Komp) No. subprime loans: 804 No. loan originations: 2,138 Subprime share: 37.6% Subprime share rank: 1
13 Senate District 12 House Districts 23 and 24 (Dallas/McMinnville) Senate District 12 (G. George) No. subprime loans: 1,479 No. loan originations: 5,391 Subprime share: 27.4% Subprime share rank: 9 House District 23 (Boquist) No. subprime loans: 653 No. loan originations: 2,433 Subprime share: 26.8% Subprime share rank: 27 House District 24 (Nelson) No. subprime loans: 826 No. loan originations: 2,958 Subprime share: 27.9% Subprime share rank: 19
14 Senate District 13 House Districts 25 and 26 (Sherwood/Keizer/Wilsonville) Senate District 13 (L. George) No. subprime loans: 1,857 No. loan originations: Subprime share: 24.4% Subprime share rank: 18 House District 25 (Thatcher) No. subprime loans: 896 No. loan originations: 3,277 Subprime share: 27.3% Subprime share rank: 23 House District 26 (Krummel) No. subprime loans: 961 No. loan originations: 4,337 Subprime share: 22.2% Subprime share rank: 45
15 Senate District 14 House Districts 27 and 28 (Beaverton/Aloha) Senate District 14 (Haas) No. subprime loans: 1,564 No. loan originations: 6,700 Subprime share: 23.3% Subprime share rank: 21 House District 27 (Read) No. subprime loans: 582 No. loan originations: 3,104 Subprime share: 18.8% Subprime share rank: 53 House District 28 (Barker) No. subprime loans: 982 No. loan originations: 3,596 Subprime share: 27.3% Subprime share rank: 24
16 Senate District 15 House Districts 29 and 30 (Hillsboro) Senate District 15 (Starr) No. subprime loans: 1,933 No. loan originations: 7,141 Subprime share: 27.1% Subprime share rank: 10 House District 29 (Riley) No. subprime loans: 1,057 No. loan originations: 3,331 Subprime share: 31.7% Subprime share rank: 10 House District 30 (D. Edwards) No. subprime loans: 876 No. loan originations: 3,810 Subprime share: 23.0% Subprime share rank: 42
17 Senate District 16 House Districts 31 and 32 (Scappoose/Clatskanie/Cannon Beach) Senate District 16 (Johnson) No. subprime loans: 1,631 No. loan originations: 6,209 Subprime share: 26.3% Subprime share rank: 12 House District 31 (Witt) No. subprime loans: 947 No. loan originations: 3,161 Subprime share: 30.0% Subprime share rank: 11 House District 32 (Boone) No. subprime loans: 684 No. loan originations: 3,048 Subprime share: 22.4% Subprime share rank: 44
18 Senate District 17 House Districts 33 and 34 (Portland/Washington-Multnomah Counties) Senate District 17 (Avakian) No. subprime loans: 1,132 No. loan originations: 7,113 Subprime share: 15.9% Subprime share rank: 30 House District 33 (Greenlick) No. subprime loans: 526 No. loan originations: 3,945 Subprime share: 13.3% Subprime share rank: 59 House District 34 (Bonamici) No. subprime loans: 606 No. loan originations: 3,168 Subprime share: 19.1% Subprime share rank: 52
19 Senate District 18 House Districts 35 and 36 (Tigard/Portland) Senate District 18 (Burdick) No. subprime loans: 1,149 No. loan originations: 6,698 Subprime share: 17.2% Subprime share rank: 29 House District 35 (Galizio) No. subprime loans: 713 No. loan originations: 3,629 Subprime share: 19.6% Subprime share rank: 49 House District 36 (Nolan) No. subprime loans: 436 No. loan originations: 3,069 Subprime share: 14.2% Subprime share rank: 58
20 Senate District 19 House Districts 37 and 38 (Tualatin/West Linn/Lake Oswego) Senate District 19 (Devlin) No. subprime loans: 1,144 No. loan originations: 6,400 Subprime share: 17.9% Subprime share rank: 28 House District 37 (Bruun) No. subprime loans: 646 No. loan originations: 3,340 Subprime share: 19.3% Subprime share rank: 51 House District 38 (Macpherson) No. subprime loans: 498 No. loan originations: 3,060 Subprime share: 16.3% Subprime share rank: 56
21 Senate District 20 House Districts 39 and 40 (Canby/Clackamas County) Senate District 20 (Schrader) No. subprime loans: 1,624 No. loan originations: 6,285 Subprime share: 25.8% Subprime share rank: 13 House District 39 (Scott) No. subprime loans: 851 No. loan originations: 3,511 Subprime share: 24.2% Subprime share rank: 34 House District 40 (Hunt) No. subprime loans: 773 No. loan originations: 2,774 Subprime share: 27.9% Subprime share rank: 20
22 Senate District 21 House Districts 41 and 42 (Portland/Milwaukie) Senate District 21 (Brown) No. subprime loans: 1,272 No. loan originations: 5,866 Subprime share: 21.7% Subprime share rank: 26 House District 41 (Tomei) No. subprime loans: 863 No. loan originations: 3,454 Subprime share: 25.0% Subprime share rank: 30 House District 42 (Rosenbaum) No. subprime loans: 409 No. loan originations: 2,412 Subprime share: 17.0% Subprime share rank: 55
23 Senate District 22 House Districts 43 and 44 (Portland/N-NE Portland) Senate District 22 (Carter) No. subprime loans: 1,868 No. loan originations: 7,553 Subprime share: 24.7% Subprime share rank: 16 House District 43 (Shields) No. subprime loans: 777 No. loan originations: 3,528 Subprime share: 22.0% Subprime share rank: 46 House District 44 (Kotek) No. subprime loans: 1,091 No. loan originations: 4,025 Subprime share: 27.1% Subprime share rank: 25
24 Senate District 23 House Districts 45 and 46 (Portland) Senate District 23 (Gordly) No. subprime loans: 1,445 No. loan originations: 6,242 Subprime share: 23.1% Subprime share rank: 22 House District 45 (Dingfelder) No. subprime loans: 727 No. loan originations: 3,199 Subprime share: 22.7% Subprime share rank: 43 House District 46 (Cannon) No. subprime loans: 718 No. loan originations: 3,043 Subprime share: 23.6% Subprime share rank: 39
25 Senate District 24 House Districts 47 and 48 (Portland/Happy Valley) Senate District 24 (Monroe) No. subprime loans: 2,414 No. loan originations: 7,025 Subprime share: 34.4% Subprime share rank: 2 House District 47 (Merkley) No. subprime loans: 1,064 No. loan originations: 2,977 Subprime share: 35.7% Subprime share rank: 3 House District 48 (Schaufler) No. subprime loans: 1,350 No. loan originations: 4,048 Subprime share: 33.3% Subprime share rank: 7
26 Senate District 25 House Districts 49 and 50 (Wood Village/Gresham) Senate District 25 (Monnes Anderson) No. subprime loans: 2,039 No. loan originations: 6,482 Subprime share: 31.5% Subprime share rank: 4 House District 49 (Minnis) No. subprime loans: 1,081 No. loan originations: 3,181 Subprime share: 34.0% Subprime share rank: 5 House District 50 (Lim) No. subprime loans: 958 No. loan originations: 3,301 Subprime share: 29.0% Subprime share rank: 15
27 Senate District 26 House Districts 51 and 52 (Mt. Hood/Clackamas/Corbett) Senate District 26 (Metsger) No. subprime loans: 1,447 No. loan originations: 6,080 Subprime share: 23.8% Subprime share rank: 20 House District 51 (Flores) No. subprime loans: 691 No. loan originations: 2,890 Subprime share: 23.9% Subprime share rank: 36 House District 52 (P. Smith) No. subprime loans: 756 No. loan originations: 3,190 Subprime share: 23.7% Subprime share rank: 38
28 Senate District 27 House Districts 53 and 54 (Tumalo/Sunriver/Bend) Senate District 27 (Westlund) No. subprime loans: 2,763 No. loan originations: 12,406 Subprime share: 22.3% Subprime share rank: 25 House District 53 (Whisnant) No. subprime loans: 1,622 No. loan originations: 6,557 Subprime share: 24.7% Subprime share rank: 33 House District 54 (Burley) No. subprime loans: 1,141 No. loan originations: 5,849 Subprime share: 19.5% Subprime share rank: 50
29 Senate District 28 House Districts 55 and 56 (Klamath Falls/Medford) Senate District 28 (Whitsett) No. subprime loans: 1,602 No. loan originations: 5,575 Subprime share: 28.7% Subprime share rank: 7 House District 55 (Gilman) No. subprime loans: 911 No. loan originations: 3,070 Subprime share: 29.7% Subprime share rank: 14 House District 56 (Garrard) No. subprime loans: 691 No. loan originations: 2,505 Subprime share: 27.6% Subprime share rank: 22
30 Senate District 29 House Districts 57 and 58 (Heppner/Pendleton) Senate District 29 (Nelson) No. subprime loans: 750 No. loan originations: 2,358 Subprime share: 31.8% Subprime share rank: 3 House District 57 (G. Smith) No. subprime loans: 356 No. loan originations: 1,193 Subprime share: 29.8% Subprime share rank: 13 House District 58 (Jenson) No. subprime loans: 394 No. loan originations: 1,165 Subprime share: 33.8% Subprime share rank: 6
31 Senate District 30 House Districts 59 and 60 (John Day/The Dalles/Ontario) Senate District 30 (Ferrioli) No. subprime loans: 1,083 No. loan originations: 3,452 Subprime share: 31.4% Subprime share rank: 5 House District 59 (Huffman) No. subprime loans: 703 No. loan originations: 2,353 Subprime share: 29.9% Subprime share rank: 12 House District 60 (Bentz) No. subprime loans: 380 No. loan originations: 1,099 Subprime share: 34.6% Subprime share rank: 4
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