Turk s ES ZigZag Day Trading Strategy

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1 Turk s ES ZigZag Day Trading Strategy User Guide 11/15/2013 1

2 Turk's ES ZigZag Strategy User Manual Table of Contents Disclaimer 3 Strategy Overview.. 4 Strategy Detail.. 6 Data Symbol Setup 7 Strategy Inputs 8 Strategy Properties.. 10 Indicator Setup 11 About the Developer 12 Developer's Opinion on Trading 13 The Real World Issues of Trading Systems. 14 APPENDIX I - Data Setup 16 APPENDIX II - Strategy Setup. 17 2

3 Disclaimer The developer is offering this product, the documentation to this product and any opinion solely for the purpose of education. The developer is making no representations that the software, documentation or the opinions of the developer will not result in losses should the user decide to use these in real trading. Trading is a risky business that is not suited to everyone. Trading futures contracts can result in substantial losses. The developer is in no way attempting to encourage trading or attempting to sell products and services that are designed to encourage trading. All traders using any product, service or opinion of the developer to trade in a real world environment does so at their own risk. As is stated below in CFTC Rule 4.41, anytime a reference is made to historical, hypothetical, simulated or back tested; those terms mean the results do not represent actual trading and the results do not represent the amount of money that can be made or the maximum amount of money that can be lost should the strategy be used in real life trading. CFTC RULE HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. 3

4 Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy Overview Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy is a day trading strategy that was built upon the observation that prices oscillate or zigzag more than they trend in one direction. A unique and proprietary method of calculating the best entries and exits created by the movement of prices up and down is the basis for the strategy. Trades, depending on user settings, can reverse at the point the prior trade exits. This results in a zigzag pattern of trades. The logic that is used is adaptive. It takes into account the movement and volatility of recent prices and recalculates the price to exit the current trade at the close of each bar. In most cases, the exit price the strategy determines would be best for exiting a trade is also determined by the strategy to be the best price to initiate a position in the opposite direction. As price action changes, the logic may change the exit price. This change can result in a profit point that is either higher or lower than the one previously calculated. Every change made is based on logic that attempts to maximize profits and minimize losses. Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy makes no attempt to identify a trend or to trade with a trend or to trade counter to a trend. It simply tries to enter a trade where its logic determines the likelihood of a positive outcome is greater than the possibility that the trade will result in a loss. Another unique aspect of this program is that it does not require a stop loss or a profit target to improve its profitability. Stop loss and profit target inputs however are provided. It is prudent to always trade with a protective stop and the strategy allows the user to input whatever stop loss they desire. By using the profit target and stop loss inputs, users can adapt the strategy to meet their individual risk and reward preferences. The logic is comprised of only two variables. The variables that are programmed into the logic represent those that in historical back testing provided a combination of profits, profit per trade and drawdowns in or near the middle of results from using numerous other combinations of inputs. 4

5 The system can be adapted to meet the needs of different trading styles. One of the two variables used in the logic can be adjusted by the user. In the default state, a short trade will likely originate at the same point a long trade exits and vice versa. The user can change a variable and force the system to enter a long trade 1 to 4 ticks lower than the previous short trade exit. The user also can use the ADX indicator to control when the system places trades. The various combinations of these two user controlled inputs allows the system to adapt to the needs of a wide range of trading styles and trader needs. The strategy does not use neural networks nor does it use fuzzy or artificial intelligence in any way. 5

6 Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy Details When the strategy is activated, it begins by looking at recent price action. The logic determines a potential buy point and a potential point to sell short. As price approaches one of these levels, the strategy will send a limit order at the price it wants to enter the trade. If the buy price for a long trade is hit and filled, the strategy will set a profit target price when the entry bar closes. Using the default settings, the order will be for 2 contracts, one to exit the long position and the second to enter a short position. As prices change, the strategy may keep its original target price, or it may raise it or lower it. Basically, the strategy logic goes something like this: The entry point to the current long trade is The logic calculates the exit price to be This is the same price the logic calculates for entry of a short position. Two sell limit orders will be placed at One order exits the current long position and the second order enters a new short trade. A few bars later price closes at At this point the logic determines that is a better exit point for the long trade and entry for a short trade. The limit orders are then moved from 1603 to for exit for the existing long trade and entry for a new short. Or the strategy logic may go like this: The entry point to the current long trade is The logic calculates the exit price to be This is the same price the logic calculates for entry of a short position. Using the default settings, two sell limit orders will be placed at One order exits the current long position and the second order enters a new short trade. A few bars later price closes at At this point the logic determines that is a better exit point for the long trade and entry for a short trade. The limit orders are then moved from 1603 to for exit for the existing long trade and entry for a new short. This process is performed at the close of each bar until the target is hit at which point a reversal trade will probably be entered. Depending on the movement of prices, the target can change many times downward and then move upward before the trade closes. All prices initiated by the strategy are limit orders. 6

7 TradeStation Data Symbol Setup Turk s ES ZigZag strategy is designed to be traded using the ES contract charted as momentum bars with a range of 1.0 points using a 1 tick interval. The use of momentum bars is critical to the success of this strategy. Each momentum bar is exactly 1.0 point tall. Momentum bars require the existing bar to be 1.0 point tall and then price must increase 1 tick above the high of the existing bar of fall 1 tick lower than the low of the existing bar. The tick above the high or below the low of the previous bar represents the open of the new bar. The logic of Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy does not work with time or tick based bars. It is critical that every bar contain the same amount of price movement. Trader Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy has been hypothetical back tested results with ES momentum bars of 0.5 points and as high as 2.0 points with positive results. The user can test the strategy on any range size of ES momentum bars they chose. The ES contract with prices for the entire regular trading session of the e-mini contract from the open on Sunday until the close on Friday is required. The ES.D contract which only contains prices from the daily session of the e-mini contract should not be use. Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy is designed only for use with the ES. Do not attempt to use it with any other futures contract, stock or ETF. It simply will not work. Since the momentum bars are built using tick data, TradeStation users will likely be limited to downloading only 6 months of data on which to back test the strategy since TradeStation only keeps tick data for 6 months. The developer has tick data as far back as 12/27/2011. In Appendix I, more detailed information is provided concerning how to set up and format the ES symbol for use with Turk s ES ZigZag strategy. 7

8 Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy Inputs Below is a list of the user inputs for Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy: Input Default Value ADXMin 15 ADXMax 40 ProfitTarget 9999 StopLoss 1000 BegTime 830 EndTime 1430 EODTime 1450 BSGap 0.50 ADXMin This input represents the minimum level of the ADX indicator before a new trade can be entered. The user can set the minimum acceptable ADX level with the ADXMin input. The strategy will only enter trades if the ADX is greater than or equal to the ADXMin input value. Historical back testing has shown that the strategy is profitable using a minimum ADX of zero; however most historical back tests have shown that trades generated when the ADX is greater than 15 result in a higher profit per trade and lower drawdowns although total profits are normally reduced. The strategy default value for the ADXMin is 15. ADXMax This input represents the maximum level of the ADX indicator at which a new trade can be entered. The user can set the maximum acceptable ADX level with the ADXMax input. The strategy will only enter trades if the ADX is less than the ADXMin input value. Historical back testing has shown that the strategy is profitable using a maximum ADX of 99, however in some historical back tests, the average profit per trade diminished on trades when the ADX was greater than 40. The strategy default value for the ADXMax is 40. ProfitTarget The profit target per trade can be set by the user to represent the profitable dollar level at which the strategy is to exit the trade. The strategy does not require a profit target because the strategy logic calculates its own profit target at the completion of each price bar. No two traders are alike and therefore 8

9 it is only prudent to offer an input so each trader can enter their own personal target for each trade. Users who chose to let the logic exit each trade can simply set the input value of the ProfitTarget input to 9999 or any very large number. The default value of the ProfitTarget input is set at StopLoss The stop loss can be set by the user to represent the maximum dollar loss level at which the strategy is to exit the trade. Historical back tests show positive results using a stop levels many times higher than the largest losing trade. USER S ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE THE STOPLOSS INPUT TO AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF UNLIMITED LOSSES. Every user has a different account size and different tolerance for losses, therefore each user will need to set this value at a level they can feel comfortable with. The default value for the StopLoss input is set at BegTime The BegTime input represents the time that the user would like for the strategy to begin generating trades. The default start time is 830. This time is the CDT and CST opening time of the ES daily session on the CME in Chicago. The strategy will not begin to trade until after one bar closes at or after the BegTime input value. The BegTime and EndTime inputs allow the user to back test the strategy over different time periods. Turk s ES ZigZag strategy is not limited to only trading during the ES daily session. EndTime The EndTime input represents the time that the user would like for the strategy to stop generating trades. The default start time is This time is the CDT and CST in Chicago where the ES is traded. It represents the time 30 minutes prior to the close of the NYSE in New York and 45 minutes prior to the close of the daily session for the ES on the CME in Chicago. If the user would like to see how the strategy trades continuously from the market open on Sunday to the market close on Friday, the BegTime input can be set to 0000 and the EndTime can be set equal to 2400 or any value greater than EODTime The EODTime input represents the time each trading day ( End of Day ) for the strategy to close all open trades. The default value is This 9

10 time is the CDT and CST in Chicago where the ES is traded. It represents the time 25 minutes prior to the close of the daily session of the ES in Chicago. Some futures brokers provide significantly lower day trading margin requirements only during the daily session of the ES from 830am CST to 415pm CST. This input is designed to assist the user to close all positions 25 minutes prior to the close of the ES daily session. If this input is of no value to the user, then the user can set it to any value greater than BSGap The BSGap ( Buy-Sell Gap ) represents the value of a tick between where the strategy enters a new trade and where the previous trade exits. The default value is 0. This means that in most cases the strategy will enter a reverse trade at the same value it exited the previous trade. If the user wishes to require the strategy to enter a trade 1 tick higher than the previous trade close, then the BSGap should be set to 0.25, the value of 1 ES tick. If the user wishes the system to wait until price rise 2 ticks higher than the previous exit, then the BSGap should be set to 0.50, the value of 2 ES ticks. The system will only enter trades if the other entry requirements are met and then only enter a short trade at a price BSGap lower than the previous long trade exit or enter a long trade at a price BSGap higher than the previous short trade exit. Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy Properties Below are the properties to be used with the Trader Turk s ES ZigZag strategy: Commissions = $2.50 per trade Position Slippage = $0.00 per trade Initial Capital = $10,000 per e-mini contract Max number of bars study will reference = 150 Trade Size = 1 contract Appendix II contains more information for setting the back testing and automation settings for the strategy. 10

11 TradeStation Indicator Setup Turk s ES ZigZag strategy does not require any indicators to be installed on the chart. However, the strategy does have one user defined variable that is useful to view. That variable is the ADX. The user can define the lower and upper ADX levels that they may wish to use for Trader Turk s ES ZigZag strategy to initiate new trades. Back testing has shown that the strategy is profitable using a minimum ADX of zero and a maximum ADX of 999 however trades when the ADX is greater than 15 result in a higher profit per trade and lower drawdowns although total profits are normally reduced. Trades when the ADX is greater than 40 or more tend to have a lower profit per trade. The default values provided with the strategy are a minimum ADX of 15 and a maximum ADX of 40. Included with the strategy is an ADX paint bar indicator that can be used to color bars to show when trades will be allowed and when they will not. Users are encouraged to back test various combinations of ADX inputs to identify the levels that they prefer. Trader Turk s ES ZigZag strategy entry rule is governed by the ADX of the previously completed bar. Sometimes the strategy will enter a bar where the ADX is below the minimum or above the allowable limits however the previous bar was within the limit. The criteria for entry are based on the most recently completed bar. The TradeStation ADX indicator using an ADXLength = 13 can be installed on the chart to show when new trades are allowed to be entered and when they are not based on the level of the ADX. It is the responsibility of the user to insure that the ADX values used in the strategy are the same as those set for the indicators. If the ADX minimum set in the paint bar indicator is higher than is set in the strategy, the user may see the strategy enter trades on bars that are colored not be tradable. 11

12 About the Developer The developer was one of the first customers of TradeStation and its predecessor company, Omega Research. He has been trading and programming in EasyLanguage with System Writer programming software and TradeStation since the 1980 s. The developer s focus for most trading system development primarily involves volatility. The cycle of low volatility to high volatility and back provides many opportunities to trade when risk is small and opportunity for profit is relatively large when related to the risk. Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy began as a piece of one such volatility project. By accident, the developer placed the strategy on a chart without any exit strategy and was amazed at the results. The immediate reaction was that there was a programming error or a future leak of some type. None was found and then through testing and more testing, it became apparent that the logic had simply found a way to trade the oscillation of prices on a rather small scale. The strategy simply takes advantage of the fact that no matter what direction prices are moving, the flow of orders that ultimately change price are not uniform. The wave of prices caused by changes in the flow of buy and sell orders creates enough volatility to potentially profit from. This can be seen in how the volume of up contracts and down contracts varies significantly from one bar to the next on small time framed bars. In many ways the flow is like the waves as they crash on the beach. A wave crest is always followed by a trough before another wave crest approaches. The cycle never ends. It doesn t matter if the tide is rising, falling or staying the same. The developer has several other strategies that are used to trade forex, currency futures and ETF s. Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy is the first strategy the developer has offered for sale or lease. 12

13 Developer s Opinion on Successful Trading The developer s primary interest is in helping traders. He will gladly attempt to help any user of the ZigZag strategy to be a successful trader. There are many factors that are more important to making money in the markets than having access to a trading strategy that has shown the potential to provide profits. Unfortunately, most of these factors have to do with the trader and his/her ability to do the following: 1. Treat trading as a business. Have a written plan and follow that plan. Acknowledge when mistakes have been made and find ways to avoid those in the future. 2. Follow the rules of your trading methodology. Don t overrule or ignore your rules. If you don t have written rules that define what to trade, when to trade and how to trade, you have no business trading. 3. Keep your opinion about price movement to yourself and never let your opinion cause you to violate a trading rule. No one knows where prices are going on the next tick, the next bar, the next hour, day, month or year. Since this is an indisputable fact then why should a trader allow an opinion that has no value affect their ability to make money? Trading is simply an exercise in applying probability factors to a certain set of events. 4. When trading forget about the money. You don t make money trading. You make money following your business plan and your trading methodology. If you enter or exit a trade because you are thinking about the profit, loss or potential loss, you have made a huge mistake. If you can t control your emotions enough to stop doing it, then you are gambling and not trading. 5. Keep a daily trading log. Start time, stop time, details and narrative of every trade along with a grade for every trade. Your grade is based on how well you followed your plan and not on if the trade made money or not. You get an A+ for a perfectly executed trade that lost $300. You get an F, if you exited the trade early because you feared the market would fall and you took a $50 profit. Review the daily logs and make notes of mistakes that were made and develop a plan to avoid the same mistakes in the future. The developer will gladly provide users with a sample daily trading log if requested. 13

14 The Real World Issues of Trading Systems Including Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy Every trader and potential trader needs to know and understand that virtually no one will be able to replicate the performance metrics that will appear on any historical back tested report. The reasons are many but the most common reasons are: 1. Slippage In cases where orders are placed at the market, the computer simulation report will show the price at the time the order was placed. The truth is that the majority of orders placed at the market, in the case of the ES futures contract, will be filled 1 tick away from that price. This is called the spread and it represents the difference between the bid price (where traders are willing to sell to you) and the ask price (where traders are willing to buy from you). As you can guess the ask price is going to be more than the bid price. In very fast moving markets, this spread can be 2 or more ticks and a thousandth of a second may be all it takes for prices to move significantly. This is not a significant problem with Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy because all orders are placed as limit orders. 2. Unfilled Orders This is a real world problem when limit orders are used, as are most of the orders in Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy. The purpose of limit orders are to tell the market that you want your order filled at a specific price and not 1 tick less or more. Virtually all trading platforms and quote machines will show the ask price on their charts. This means that if you place a limit order to purchase 1 contract of the ES at , the chart may show that the ask price of has been traded, but that does not mean your order has or ever will be filled. Your order will only be filled if the bid price increases to In some cases the bid price will rise to and the ask price will not increase to and your order will be filled. In some cases the bid price will rise to and the ask price will rise to and your order will still not be filled. The reason is there are usually hundreds and 14

15 sometimes thousands of orders that are resting at the price waiting to be filled. It is not uncommon for only a portion of those orders to be filled and then price will move back down below and your order is still there, unfilled. 3. Missed Opportunities and Prudent Decision Making - Back testing does not know when major news events will occur such as the monthly Non- Farm Payroll report that is released on the first Friday of most months. The results will show every trade that occurred that day. Most traders do not trade shortly before or shortly after major news releases such as the NFP report and Federal Reserve Open Market statements because of the potential volatility, low liquidity and the potential for large losses. Because the volatility can be large, the opportunity for a simulated trading system to make large profits is also present. But no matter how much profit the system shows it made during such events, you should not expect to do as well. There is no easy way of extracting the amount of profit made during these events from simulated back tested results. It can be done but it is very time consuming. The point of mentioning these things is to help trader s avoid the problem of seeing simulated historical results and then calculating how rich they will be one year. I ve had this thought and I am sure you have also - This system makes an average of $200 per day. If I only need $6,000 per contract to trade and if I earn $200 per day and then double the number of contracts after the first six weeks; then add another contract 3 weeks later and keep doing that I will be a millionaire by Christmas. The truth is that in the real world of trading it just doesn t happen this way. These thoughts only build unreasonable expectations and can lead to unwarranted disappointment. There is plenty of disappointment in trading already without creating new ones. 15

16 APPENDIX I Data Setup For back testing purposes, contract is to be used. This contract represents the regular session of the continuous contract of the e-mini futures contract and shows all price activity from the opening on Sunday evening to the weekly close on Friday afternoon. Below are pictures of the two Format Symbol tabs that have settings necessary for the proper setup of a chart to be used with Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy. The Style and Scale tab settings are not shown because those settings are not critical to the operation of the strategy. The user can use any settings they desire on the Style and Scale tabs. 16

17 APPENDIX II Strategy Setup User s, who downloaded Turk s ES ZigZag Strategy from the TradeStation Strategy Network website, should have received a TradeStation workspace that is set up and ready to go. If for some reason the user needs to set the strategy up on a chart below are instructions on how to do so. Once the strategy and accompanying files have been installed in TradeStation, you can insert the strategy into the chart with your ES symbol setup as momentum bars using a 1 tick interval. Do not attempt to load the strategy into a chart with any other symbol or interval than momentum bars. It will not work. To import the strategy onto your chart, from the TradeStation menu bar click: Insert>Strategy. Scroll down the strategy until you find: Turks ES Zigzag Scalp. Click on the name and it should highlight in blue. Below the window be sure to check the box labeled Prompt for Format. Then click Import. Then click OK. That will cause the Format Strategies box to open. 17

18 You will click the format button and that will open the box shown below. By clicking on any of the input values you can input new values or you can click on the optimize button and a box will appear for you to input a range of values you would like to back-test for each input. There are no settings in the Entry, Exit or Calculation tabs that affect the strategy. Next the Properties for All button on the Format Strategies tab needs to be clicked. Below is an image of the proper settings for that tab: 18

19 Below are the settings for the Back-testing tab: The settings on the Automation Tab can be set by the user to me their individual preferences. 19

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