Strategy for Renewable Electricity Exploitation in Malta Volume 1: Renewable Electricity Target. Final Report

Transcription

1 Strategy for Renewable Electricity Exploitation in Malta Volume 1: Renewable Electricity Target Final Report July 2005

2 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Malta Resources Authority Millennia 2nd Floor Aldo Moro Road Marsa LQA 06 Malta Strategy for Renewable Electricity Exploitation in Malta Volume I: Renewable Electricity Target July 2005 Victory House Trafalgar Place Brighton BN1 4FY United Kingdom Tel Fax i /00/Julyl 2005/i of iv F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc

3 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Strategy for Renewable Electricity Exploitation in Malta Volume 1 Issue and Revision Record Rev Date Originator (Print) (Signature) Checker (Print) (Signature) Approver (Print) (Signature) Description A July 2005 Isabel Boira-Segarra Philip Napier-Moore John Porter First Issue This document has been prepared for the titled project or named part thereof and should not be relied upon or used for any other project without an independent check being carried out as to its suitability and prior written authority of being obtained. accepts no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than the purposes for which it was commissioned. Any person using or relying on the document for such other purpose agrees, and will by such use or reliance be taken to confirm his agreement to indemnify for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. accepts no responsibility or liability for this document to any party other than the person by whom it was commissioned. To the extent that the report commissioned is to be based on information supplied by other parties, accepts no liability for any loss or damage suffered by the client, whether contractual or tortious, stemming from any conclusions based on data supplied by parties other than and used by in preparing this report. ii /00/Julyl 2005/ii of iv F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc

4 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority List of Contents Glossary G-1 Summary S-1 Sections and Appendices 1 Introduction Objectives Context Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions Recommendations Report Structure 2 2 Methodology Model Inputs Screening Exercise Resource Characterisation Environmental and Planning Barriers Legislative Review Project Costs System Costs Summary of Model Inputs Constraints Scenarios Scenario A: Reaching 5% of Demand by Scenario B: Feasible Technology Penetration Rates Scenario C: Windfarm Installation post Sensitivities Format of Results 11 3 Results Scenario A: Reaching 5% of demand by Characteristics Results Conclusions Scenario B: Feasible Technology Penetration rates Characteristics 16 (i) Feasible Penetration Levels for Medium Scale Wind 16 iii /00/Julyl 2005/iii of iv F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc

5 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority (ii) Feasible Penetration Levels for PV Results 17 (i) Scenario B1: One Large Onshore Windfarm 18 (ii) Scenario B2: No Large Onshore Wind Conclusions Scenario C: Windfarm installations post Characteristics Results 20 (i) Scenario C1: Two Large Onshore Windfarms (one by 2010 the other post 2010) 21 (ii) Scenario C2: One Large Onshore Windfarm post (iii) Scenario C3: No Large Onshore Wind and One offshore Windfarm post Conclusions Sensitivities Cost Sensitivities Demand Sensitivities Wind Turbine Size Sensitivities 24 4 Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions Recommendations 27 Tables Table 2-1: ACP results by technology Table 3-1: Results Scenario A Table 3-2: Results Scenario B Table 3-3: Results Scenario B Table 3-4: Results Scenario C Table 3-5: Results Scenario C Table 3-6: Results Scenario C Table 3-7: Capital Costs Sensitivities Table 3-8: Operational Costs Sensitivities Table 3-9: Demand Sensitivities Table 3-10: Results 850kW Large Wind Turbines Table 3-11: Results 20kW Medium Turbines Figures Figure 2-1: Demand Scenarios to Figure 3-1: Technology Costs iv /00/Julyl 2005/iv of iv F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc

6 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Glossary ACP EIA KW KWh MM MRA MW MWp MWh PV RES Average Cost of Power Environmental Impact Assessment Kilowatt Kilowatt hours Malta Resources Authority Megawatt Peak Megawatt Megawatt hours Photovoltaic Renewables Energy Sources G /00/July 2005/ G-1 of G-1 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc

7 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority 1 Introduction 1.1 Objectives has been commissioned by the Malta Resources Authority (MRA) to assist in developing a policy framework for the support of renewable electricity in Malta. The specific project objectives are: to recommend and develop a national indicative target for generation of electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in accordance with the requirements of the EU Directive 2001/77/EC to support with related information and documentation the submission to the EU on how Malta can comply with the provisions of the Directive to provide a roadmap for implementation of support for RES for electricity generation. To achieve the objectives the study adopts a three phased approach as follows: Phase 1 characterise the resource, consider the barriers to renewable electricity development and make suggestions for a renewable target, expressed as a percentage of demand, to be achieved by Phase 2 develop and present a policy options analysis of measures to support renewable electricity in Malta. Phase 3 complete an implementation roadmap guiding the MRA through the process of implementing the selected option. This report is part of Phase 1 and it recommends a national indicative renewable target for Malta. 1.2 Context As part of the requirements for Malta to join the European Union, the European Commission set a provisional target of 5% of renewable electricity generation, expressed as a percentage of demand, to be met by 2010 as follows: 3% by waste 2% by wind This study does not comment on the possible role of waste-derived renewable resources as a waste generation analysis is outside of the present scope and undertaken by other entities. But based on the information provided by WasteServe 1 and data contained in the Maltese Waste Strategy 2001, this study assumes that 0.5% of Malta s energy demand may be met from waste projects by The A.1.1 A WasteServ Malta Ltd. was established in November The company is responsible for organizing, managing and operating integrated systems for waste management including integrated systems for minimisation, collection, transport, sorting, reuse, utilistation, recycling, treatment and disposal of solid and hazardous waste. 2 Based on communications from WasteServe dated 5 th January /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

8 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority focus of this report is then to determine whether meeting the remaining 4.5% target can be achieved by In doing so the study explores a range of renewable targets with varying contributions made by different technologies suitable to Malta. 1.3 Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions Large onshore wind development is the most cost-effective technology; visual impact and cumulative effects are likely to prevent more than one or two large onshore windfarms to be built in Malta. Offshore wind is the second best technology option in terms of costs. There is one marginal site identified in Malta, developing it would require resolving technical issues as well as issues relating to the conflicting use of the site. Even if a developer was prepared to develop this marginal site, it is unlikely that the windfarm would be installed before Micro-wind has not been considered a feasible option for Malta because of the planning constraints that are likely to originate due to visual impacts on the Maltese townscape. The current Maltese planning framework sis more favourable to medium scale wind exploitation but this comes at an economic cost and has implications on the overall renewable electricity target that may be achievable. The PV resource potential in Malta is enormous, but the cost implications of supporting PV are likely to be very high. Meeting 4.5% of electricity demand in 2010 by wind and PV is not feasible Recommendations Based on the modelling analysis, the following recommendations are made: It is recommended that Malta sets a national indicative target for generation of electricity from RES of 1% of demand by 2010 (assuming 2.8 TWh demand in 2010). To achieve this target it would be necessary to develop one large onshore windfarm on mainland Malta. To ascertain whether this is feasible, it is recommended that MRA carries out a visual impact study and a public awareness campaign as a matter of urgency. It is recommended that Malta that reduces barriers and develops policies to encourage medium scale wind and PV to levels commensurate with the rates assumed in this report; rooftops/year for PV and 5x60kW wind turbines a year. This would require developing incentives aimed at commercial users in particular. 1.4 Report Structure The results of Phase 1 are presented in two volumes: Volume I: Renewable Electricity Target. This is the present report and it contains the analysis of the national indicative target for generation of electricity from RES /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

9 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Volume II: Technical Annexes. These contain the supporting material used in the calculation of the targets presented in Volume I. The annexes include: Annex A Technology Alternatives Annex B Wind Resource Characterisation Annex C PV Resource Characterisation Annex D Planning Barriers Annex E Legislative Review Annex F Technology Costs Annex G System Costs Volume I of the study is structured as follows: Section 2 outlines the modelling methodology Section 3 presents the modelling results Section 4 discusses conclusions drawn from the study and presents the recommendations /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

10 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority 2 Methodology The study focuses on 2010, as indicted by the EU Directive 2001/77/EC, but it extends the analysis to 2020 to give more time for constraints to be alleviated or removed and therefore a wider range of options to be considered. The different target levels presented in this report are calculated using an optimisation model developed by. The model is based on the principle of cost optimization, using linear programming to determine the optimal solution. The model is primarily developed in Microsoft Excel but uses What s Best version 7.0 as a solver, at the back end. The version of the model being used to generate the outputs is Rengenmod v The salient features of the modelling process are explained below and they include: Model inputs Treatment of constraints Scenarios Sensitivities 2.1 Model Inputs The information used in this study has been gathered from stakeholder consultation in Malta, data provided by MRA and the Enemalta Corporation combined with industry knowledge and with assumptions and extrapolations in instances where insufficiently detailed studies were available. This information has been used to distil the inputs to the model through a number of steps: A screening exercise to identify the renewable technologies appropriate for Malta. A characterisation of the available resource for the selected technologies to identify the maximum potential renewable capacity. An analysis of environmental and planning barriers to the exploitation of the available resource to ascertain how much renewable capacity may be installed in Malta. A legislative review to identify any potential legislative barriers to the implementation of renewables in Malta. An analysis of the project and systems costs that may stem for the integration of renewables into the Maltese electricity system to allow the calculation of the costs associated with different renewable technology mixes. To allow a more accurate representation of the situation in Malta, inputs are structured by Local Plan area: Central Local Plan Area (CLP) Gozo & Comino Local Plan Area (GCLP) /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

11 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Great Harbour Local Plan Area (GHLP) Marsaxlokk Bay Local Plan Area (MBLP) North Harbours Local Plan Area(NHLP) North West Local Plan Area (NWLP) Malta South Local Plan Area (MSLP). The following sections summarise the main steps taken in deriving the model inputs. Full details are contained in the Study s Technical Annexes Screening Exercise A technology screening exercise was undertaken to select the renewable energy technologies with available resource within Malta, before progressing to detailed analysis of appropriate technologies. Details of the screening exercise are contained in Annex A. The screening exercise identified onshore and offshore wind and photovoltaic (PV) together with biomass waste, landfill and sewage gas as the most suitable sources of renewable energy for exploitation in Malta. As this study does not consider waste-derived renewable projects, the following technology options were chosen to consider further: Onshore large scale wind farms (up to 2MW wind turbines) Medium scale single turbines (here defined as between 5kW and 100kW) at farmsteads and similar buildings scattered around the islands (20-60kW turbines) Grid-connected micro-scale wind with 1kW machines fitted to roofs/buildings Offshore large wind farms (3MW turbines) PV installations fitted to existing buildings PV installations integrated into new buildings Resource Characterisation Information gathered from MRA and from a number of publications of the Institute of Energy Technology (IET) together with industry knowledge was used to characterise the maximum available wind and PV resource for Malta. Details of the analysis are contained in Annex B for wind and Annex C for PV. Annex B characterises the wind resource in the Maltese Archipelago for wind energy exploitation. This is undertaken in two steps: 3 3 SgurrEnergy (a wind specialist consultancy) has assisted in the calculation of site wind speeds and energy yields /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

12 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Step1: Calculation of the maximum available wind potential. This combines estimates of suitable wind speeds with possible areas for exploitation without considering constraints. This analysis results in the following: identification of potential sites for large wind exploitation (onshore and offshore) and calculation of their associated maximum potential capacity installed (MW) and energy yield (GWh). The maximum capacity and energy figures are inputted into the model in the Local Plan area for each site. identification of the maximum levels of penetration for medium and micro-scale wind and calculating the maximum potential capacity installed (MW) and energy yield (GWh). This requires determining the maximum number of farmsteads etc that could have a medium scale wind turbine and the maximum number of dwellings that could fit micro-wind. In both cases, the unconstrained results assume 100% uptake. These numbers are inputted into the model by Local Plan area. Step 2: Constraining the maximum wind potential to account for technical, environmental, planning and legislative barriers that may be present in Malta. Applying constraints to the maximum resource renders unviable some of the sites identified for large scale exploitation and it reduces the penetration of medium and micro-scale wind. The representation of barriers in the model is discussed in section 2.2. Annex C contains the analysis for PV. The maximum potential is calculated first based on unconstrained availability of the resource with 100% uptake of the maximum possible PV installed. This maximum resource is then constrained to account for barriers. The resulting figures are inputted into the model by Local Plan area Environmental and Planning Barriers Annex D provides a high level analysis of how the current town planning framework in Malta, as it is largely through the planning process that the specific nature and shape of renewable electricity deployment and penetration will be dictated. The analysis includes consideration of the main environmental impacts associated with the proposed development options identified in Annex B (wind) and Annex C (PV). This analysis also highlights environmental and planning issues that have the potential to restrict or halt development and offers recommendations for reducing such potential issues. The discussion of environmental issues only highlights potential areas that, based on experience, may cause problems during the planning consent procedure but it does not negate the need to complete a project specific environmental impact assessment should it be required. The barriers identified are then used in Annex B and Annex C to constrain the maximum wind and PV resource respectively Legislative Review Annex E provides recommendations on the legal framework required to enable the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources in compliance with and within the parameters of Malta s EU membership. 4 It reviews the current legislative framework in Malta and identifies gaps that need 4 This review has been carried out with the assistance of AVMT Advocates from Malta /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

13 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority to be addressed relating to renewable electricity resources. In addition, this annex forms the basis for the legal recommendations that will be made during phase II and phase III of the project. As with environmental and planning barriers, any legislative issues that may restrict the deployment of renewables are integrated into Annex B and Annex C and used to constrain wind and PV Project Costs Annex F evaluates the likely cost of wind farm developments within Malta on each of the potential onshore and offshore sites identified in Annex B and for medium and micro-scale wind. The results feed into the modelling process through the expected capital expenditure and operating costs. The capital costs categories considered include the following: Equipment costs Transport and shipping Contracting, electrical equipment and installation costs Financing and legal costs Road construction Land purchase Grid connection Developer s profit margin These capital costs estimates are based on similar wind projects in Europe with specific allowances made for the proposed sites in Malta. For PV, Annex F presents capital and O&M costs for PV installations retrofitted to existing buildings and for integrated PV systems. The later are incorporated into buildings either on roofs or within facades and are most suitable for new build where the expense of the PV system is offset by the expense of the building. All costs have been forecast to 2020 and assumptions have made about potential cost reductions. (See Annex F for details). Both capital and O&M cost estimates are associated with an uncertainty range which is based on the variety of costs found in the literature. The model uses the mid-range values as inputs in the main scenarios and the impact of the cost variation is analysed as a sensitivity System Costs The integration of renewable projects into the Maltese system results in some system costs. These are principally: /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

14 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Network reinforcement costs. Enemalta Corporation has provided a range of costs that would be required if renewables were introduced into the system under a range of scenarios. (See Annex G for the results and s comments). These costs are integrated into the model and associated to specific projects. Spinning reserve costs incurred as a result of the intermittent nature of wind. Annex G also provides the costs associated with providing spinning reserve under a range of scenarios for wind penetration. Again, these costs are inputs to the model Summary of Model Inputs The model uses the following inputs derived from the Technical Annexes: Maximum capacity that may be installed in Malta by Local Plan area for wind and PV Maximum energy that may be produced from the capacity installed in each Local Plan area. The capacity factors for each the wind options are obtained in Annex B. The average annual daily irradiance factor and PV efficiencies are derived in Annex C. Typical current and future (to 2020) capital costs and operational costs for large onshore wind farms, offshore wind farms, medium scale single turbines (20-60kW turbines) and 1kW machines. Typical and future (to 2020) capital costs and operational costs for PV installations retrofitted on existing buildings and integrated on new buildings. Electricity demand projections to 2020 under three different growth assumptions; low, medium and high. These projections were provided by the Enemalta Corporation. The three demand schedules are shown in Figure 2-1 and included in the analysis of sensitivity. Figure 2-1: Demand Scenarios to GWh High Medium Low Years /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

15 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority These inputs are used by the model to determine the targets that may be achieved in Malta based on a number of combination of the technology types considered. 2.2 Constraints The key way the model deals with constraints is by limiting the capacity that a particular Local Plan area can reach. This feature incorporates qualitative factors like technical, environmental, legislative and planning constraints and it captures their impact on reduction of capacity actually available on the ground for installations. The analysis of possible technical constraints undertaken by Enemalta indicates that the maximum large onshore capacity that may be accommodated by the Maltese system at present is 40 MW. This constraint is integrated in the model by limiting the capacity at different sites and ensuring that the total installed is 40 MW or below, until the present constrain is removed. (See Annex G for details on technical constraints). In some instances the maximum capacity of a certain Local Plan area is set to zero. This is the case, for example, in the Marsaxlokk Bay Local Plan Area, where the disused Hal Far Airfield is located. This is because the analysis undertaken in Annex D (see Table B-2) on planning constraints suggests that this proposed site is compromised by its proximity to the Luqa airport. In the case of medium and micro-scale wind and PV, planning restrictions and financial constraints are likely to reduce the level of penetration well below the 100% uptake assumed when calculating maximum potential. Penetration levels are constrained in the model by limiting the capacity that may be reached in each Local Plan area according to the scenarios discussed below. 2.3 Scenarios This study considers three main scenarios for RES deployment in Malta: Scenario A: Reaching 5% of Demand by 2010 Scenario B: Feasible Technology Penetration Rates Scenario C: Windfarm Installation post Scenario A: Reaching 5% of Demand by 2010 This scenario explores the feasibility of meeting the European Commission s provisional target of 5% electricity generation from renewable sources by 2010, assuming 0.5% is met from waste-derived renewable projects and the rest from combinations of the most cost effective technology options for Malta. Scenario A uses the cost-minimisation function of the model to produce the least-cost mix, with large onshore wind constrained to 40 MW and all other technologies deemed initially feasible in Malta unconstrained. Details on the scenarios and the results are included in section /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

16 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Scenario B: Feasible Technology Penetration Rates Scenario B explores a more plausible target which may be met by renewables, excluding wastederived projects. Under the Scenario B cases, onshore wind is more heavily constrained by planning than in Scenario A; micro-wind is not considered a viable option due to urban landscape restrictions (see Annex D). The penetration of medium wind is assumed to be lower than the resulting rates obtained in Scenario A and PV, although the most expensive option, is included at penetration rates set using other countries as reference. Scenario B is broken down into the following cases: B1: Constrained to one large onshore windfarm, constrained to zero micro wind, moderately constrained medium wind and PV based on EU penetration rates. B2: Constrained to no large onshore windfarms, constrained to no micro wind, moderately constrained medium wind and PV, based on EU penetration rates Details on the scenarios and the results are included in section Scenario C: Windfarm Installation post-2010 Scenario C considers the possibility of a lag time in cultivating public understanding and support for RES. A moderate level of support is therefore assumed to 2010, as in the B scenarios above. Under Scenario C the installations before 2010 are taken as demonstration projects, which combined with education campaigns are assumed to be capable of improving public acceptance of RES in the interval 2010 to With improved public support, this scenario therefore explores more aggressive support, such as in scenario A, from 2010 onwards. There are a number of possibilities that may be open to Malta in this lagged response situation: Scenario C1: This is Scenario B1 (one large windfarm prior to 2010 with some medium scale wind and PV) plus a further onshore wind farm developed post Scenario C2: This is Scenario B2 (no large windfarms prior to 2010 with some medium scale wind and PV) with one large onshore farm developed post This situation would be very similar to that proposed under Scenario B1 but with some delay. Scenario C3: This scenario explores a different option. It assumes that large onshore wind development remains unfeasible in Malta. In this case, an alternative means of increasing renewable capacity would be an offshore windfarm installation at the Sikka-Il-Bajda site from Details on the scenarios and the results are included in section Sensitivities The model is capable of handling different sensitivities. In addition to a response from varying the described inputs, the model has an in-built flexibility to handle user-defined sensitivities by incorporating different sets of constraints. Pre-defined sensitivities in the model are outlined below: /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

17 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority There are three capital expenditure scenarios for both the wind and PV alternatives. These scenarios take the average costs and allow the user to vary them across a range. The range is user defined and can be changed accordingly. These sensitivities are tested with the help of switches in the model. The second set of sensitivities work on the same lines as those for capital expenditure, but instead relate to operational expenditure. The third set of sensitivities deals with electricity demand projections. Here, three demand patterns are taken into consideration namely Low, Medium and High. The fourth set of sensitivities deals with the use of turbines for medium wind farms. Two types of turbine sizes which are considered 20kW and 60kW. This examines the impact on the capacities that various sites can offer. The fifth set of sensitivities deals with the use of turbines for large wind farms. Two types of turbine sizes which are considered 850kW and 2MW. This examines the impact on the capacities that various sites can offer. 2.5 Format of Results After the inputs have been processed, constraints defined, and scenarios chosen, the model generates an output expressed in terms of /MWh. The model picks up the least cost technological solution (wind, PV or a combination of the two) on the basis of capital and operational expenditure, installs the capacity of the chosen technology type on cost effective sites and resolves the average cost in /MWh. It is also possible to force the model to choose certain technology options by indicating the capacity to be installed per area per year. In these instances the model also resolves the average cost in /MWh. The average cost of power (ACP) is derived by summing an annuity for the plant and operational costs over the period of concern divided by the cumulative energy produced over the same period. For discounting purposes, life of the project and discount rate considered are fifteen years and 3% 5 respectively. The ACP for given proportions of renewable energy in Malta s generation mix is given as an indication of the relative costs of the different technologies. The total expenditure embodied by the different targets and different technology mixes is also calculated by the model. Disaggregated ACP model results are shown in Table 2-1 below. These results are for installed costs in 2008 and are based on average capital and operational expenditure, for each RES technology included in the scenarios: Table 2-1: ACP results by technology RES Technology ACP ( /MWh) Large Onshore Wind 51.4 Large Offshore Wind kW Medium Wind kW Micro Wind kWp Solar PV Conventional Plant /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

18 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority The RES capacity optimisation in the model is based on capital and operational costs per megawatt installed for each technology and, where relevant, specific site. The model does not use the constraint that integer numbers of the generation unit must be installed, since the results are intended to create a guide to the costs for a given total RES capacity based on typical generation costs, rather than outline realistic plans for a specific site. A result of this is that Table 3-1 effectively shows 4.4 offshore turbines of 3MW each installed by While this is self-evidently not a feasible outcome, the result nonetheless provides an indication of the scale and cost of installation required to meet a 5% RES generation target. Similarly, this feature of the modelling process is evident in Tables 3-2, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6 and /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

19 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority 3 Results 3.1 Scenario A: Reaching 5% of demand by Characteristics This scenario explores the most cost-effective means of meeting 4.5% of electricity demand by As indicated in Annex B, this represents the case where the maximum large onshore wind is developed taking into account the technical constraints of integrating wind into the Maltese electricity system. In this scenario, it is assumed that large onshore wind farm installations receive strong backing within Malta, permitting and in particular visual impact, are not a significant obstacle and suitable developers are readily available to complete works at both sites before The main characteristics of Scenario A are summarised as follows: The percentage of demand met by renewables by 2010 is set to 4.5%. This target is then maintained through the period to , to track increasing demand. Of the total available resource, two large onshore windfarm sites are selected for inclusion in this analysis, based on the technical, environmental and social features of the potential sites in Malta (see Annexes B and D). The sites selected are Marfa Ridge and Bajda Ridge. Each large onshore wind farm is run using 2MW turbines. The capacity of the Marfa Ridge and Bajda Ridge sites is limited to 20 MW each to account for system technical constraints (see Annex B). The model does not add any large onshore wind developments post Even if the current technical constraints were to be resolved, more than two large wind farms in the Maltese Islands would be extremely unlikely as cumulative impact would be significant due to the country s size and characteristics of the landscape (see Annex D). No potential offshore wind sites are included in the period to 2010, since none of those identified are deemed viable with the technology available before 2010 (see Annex B). One offshore development is considered from The offshore wind farm is run using 3MW turbines. Medium wind is run assuming that 60kW turbines are used. The scenario is run using the medium demand growth assumptions. The scenario is run using the medium level costs assumptions. Energy is not generated from projects until This is to allow for construction and the removal of the present planning and legislative barriers. Scenario A uses the cost-minimisation function of the model to produce the least-cost mix, with large onshore wind constrained to 40 MW and all other technologies deemed initially feasible in Malta unconstrained /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/

20 Potential Exploitable Renewable Electricity Study Malta Malta Resources Authority Results The results from this scenario are summarised in Table 3-1 and discussed below: Table 3-1: Results Scenario A Large Onshore Wind Medium Wind Micro Wind Large Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Medium Wind Micro Wind Size of turbine 2 MW 60 kw 1 kw 2 MW 3 MW 60 kw 1 kw MW Installed % Capacity # Installations (small scale) units units 610 units Penetration Rate units/yr units/yr 61 units/yr Total Capacity MW MW Target (% of demand) 4.5% 4.5% ACP per MWh per MWh Of which, network and 2.43 per MWh 2.62 per MWh spinning reserve costs Total Capital Cost million million After large onshore windfarm capacity is filled, the shortfall in generation required to meet 4.5% of electricity demand by 2010 is met by medium scale wind, as the second most costeffective option (see Figure 3-1). During the period the 4.5% target is maintained by increasing levels of medium scale wind until this reaches its maximum potential (one 60kW unit installed in 613 farmsteads etc, see Annex C). It is then followed by micro-wind and offshore wind. PV is too expensive to be considered by the cost optimiser in the model (see Figure 3-1). To meet 4.5% of demand by 2010 with only 40 MW of onshore wind possible, it implies a penetration rate for medium scale wind of 166 units per year for three years. This penetration rate is totally unrealistic for the following reasons: It would require 82% of the maximum suitable sites in Malta to install one 60 kw turbine each. It would entail strong incentives given to end users to incur the required capital expenditure. Pay back periods for one 60 kw turbine at present tariff levels in Malta and with no subsidy, would be in the range of 18 years, 6 which falls significantly short of an attractive investment for the relevant landowners. It would require an extremely effective public education and public awareness campaign to ensure that such levels of penetration were realised. 6 This is based on a simple payback period calculation for displacement of grid electricity. A capital cost of 114,000 and annual operational cost of 1,400 apply for 60kW medium wind (see Annex F), with a capacity factor of 18% (see Annex B). The electricity consumption charge is 3.4 Malta cents per kwh, which applies to commercial users with power factor equipment installed, on the assumption of a net metering arrangement for power spilled to the grid /00/July 2005/ S- of S-27 F:\PROJECTS\ Malta\Phase 1 deliverables\phase 1 report\final Report\Final Report Volume 1 main report.doc/