ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VICTORIA 2011 June 2012

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1 ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VICTORIA 2011 June 2012 Executive Summary This report provides an overview of Victoria s electricity generation from renewable energy sources in The report presents a detailed breakdown of renewable energy sources along with a comparison of generation to Victorian electricity consumption. Changes in annual capacity and generation output are noted with respect to the key technologies of bioenergy, hydro, wind and solar. The paper addresses renewable electricity generation but does not cover renewable thermal energy, such as solar hot water.

2 Contents Contents...2 Background...3 Renewable Generation Installed Capacity... 3 The Renewable Energy Mix... 3 Victoria s Renewable Electricity Percentage...4 Resource Specific Information...7 Hydro... 7 Bioenergy... 7 Solar... 8 Wind Farm Generation... 9 Supply-Duration...11

3 Background Sustainability Victoria tracks the amount of electricity generated from Victorian renewable energy sources. Generation data is sourced from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and operating generators in Victoria. The report covers electricity generation from renewable energy resources, which include wind, hydro, solar and biomass. The report does not cover renewable energy used for thermal applications such as solar hot water, solar cooling, industrial solar heat, geothermal direct use and heat from bioenergy sources. The consumption data is sourced from the most recent report of the National Institute for Economic and Industrial Research, currently dated July Renewable Generation Installed Capacity The total capacity of renewable energy technologies over the last ten years is presented in Table 1. Table 1: Capacity of renewable generation technologies by year 1 Installed Capacity (MW) Fuel type Biomass Hydro Solar Wind Total ,372 1,429 1,633 The Renewable Energy Mix Total output by generators of each technology is presented in Figure 1 and Table 2. Wind Hydro Biomass Solar 3,500 3,000 Output (GWh) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Figure 1: Renewal energy generation output by year (see footnote 1 above) Year 1 Throughout the report, the nominal dates for installed capacity refer to end of that year (i.e. 31 December). Generation output is calculated over the calendar year specified.

4 Table 2: Renewable energy generation output by year Output (GWh) Fuel type Biomass Hydro Solar Wind 1,028 1,217 1,280 Total 2,106 2,632 2,951 Clearly, the wind sector has seen significant expansion over the period since It has grown from less than 0.1 MW to a currently installed capacity of 432 MW, and now makes up over 25 per cent of installed renewable electricity generation capacity. Accordingly, output increased from 260 MWh in 2000 to 1,280 GWh in Biomass and solar have grown by similar proportions, albeit over longer and shorter timeframes, respectively. Finally, hydro output varied between a peak of 1,100 GWh in 2002 and a low of 404 GWh in 2007 with relatively little variation in plant capacity. Victoria s Renewable Electricity Percentage The percentage of Victoria s electricity sourced from renewable sources in 2011 was 5.5 per cent, compared to 5.0 per cent in The percentage that Victoria has conventionally quoted for electricity from renewable energy sources is calculated as the ratio of the renewable electricity supplied compared to total end use consumption in the State. The renewable electricity delivered is calculated as all generation from renewable generators located in Victoria less notional network losses. Sustainability Victoria s methodology is to apply a network loss factor of 7 per cent to all generation except rooftop photo voltaic (PV) generation. Rooftop PV is not discounted in this manner, as the embedded nature of the installation implies that distribution losses are negligible: RE output( non-rooftop) + RE output(rooftop) RE as a % of consumption= consumption There is no accounting for interstate transfer of energy, tracking of wholesale purchases or the energy consumed as ancillary power consumed internally by generators. Therefore the quoted percentage is not the same as the fraction of renewable energy generation within Victoria. Figure 2 below shows the renewable energy percentage since year % 5% 4% RE% 3% 2% 1% 0% Figure 2: Renewable energy percentage contribution to consumption by year Year

5 In 2011 the total renewable energy generation was 2,951 GWh which was an increase of 320 MWh or 12 per cent on the 2010 renewable energy generation.

6 2009 Biomass, 554 Wind, 1,028 Solar, 18 Hydro, Biomass, 605 Wind, 1,217 Hydro 748 Solar, Biomass, 633 Wind, 1,280 Hydro, 813 Solar, 225 Figure 3: Renewable energy output (GWh) by source, 2009, 2010 and 2011

7 Resource Specific Information Hydro In 2011 Victorian hydro generators supplied 813 GWh (28 per cent of renewable generation) from 802 MW of installed hydro plant. Hydro generation data is sourced from all generators physically located within the Victorian State border except for the case of the Hume Dam Hydro which is considered 50% supplied to Victoria. At this stage, ninety-two per cent of hydro output data is sourced directly from plant operators. This data is cross-validated against the AEMO Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO). The ESOO is an annual statement of the outlook for the National Electricity Market (NEM), which includes analyses of the current and recent history of the NEM. Figure 4 presents both the output and capacity for the period 1990 to 2011, and clearly demonstrates the variation inherent in the source. Except for an increase of 140 MW capacity in 2009 with the Bogong power station being commissioned in October 2009, the majority of capacity change in the period was from a number of small pipeline mini-hydro plants installed by Melbourne Water. Capacity Output Output (GWh) Capacity (MW) 0 Figure 4: Hydro capacity and output by year Year The large dip in output over the years is attributable to low reservoir levels. Most large hydro dams were built for the primary purpose of distributing water to irrigators. During drought, the dam operators only allow minimal flow. The effect of widespread rain throughout the state in from late 2010 is quite pronounced in the output data, even though the majority of rain only fell in the final three months of that year. Bioenergy In 2011 bioenergy sources supplied 632 GWh (21 per cent of renewable generation) to Victoria. Figure 5 presents the capacity of Victoria s twenty-four biomass generators from broken down by fuel type. Black liquor dominates, with 45 per cent of operating bioenergy capacity in the state and all attributed to one facility.

8 140 Black liquor Digester gas Landfill methane Sewage methane Waste Water Treatment Waste paper and plastic 120 Capacity (MW) Year Figure 5: Capacity of biomass generators by fuel and by year Aside from a single large black liquor sourced plant the majority of remaining bioenergy generation is from landfill methane generators, which were mostly installed in the 1990s. The most significant addition since 2006 has been the addition of almost 16 MW sewage methane generation by Melbourne Water at its two major waste treatment plants, one small sewage methane plant owned by Gippsland Water, two small landfill gas generators totalling 2 MW and a 3 MW waste paper and plastic energy recovery (quaternary recycling) plant operated by VISY. The data indicates a higher capacity factor for landfill methane than the other fuel types. In 2011, the capacity factor for landfill sites was over 65 per cent compared to the bioenergy sector average of 52 per cent. Solar Solar energy supplied 225 GWh (8 per cent of renewable electricity) to Victoria in The year saw continued rapid growth of small rooftop systems driven by Commonwealth and State Government incentives. Figure 6 presents an estimate of installed PV capacity according to the Clean Energy Regulator s (CER) data on Small Technology Certificate (STC) creation. This data does not cover all systems: certificates may be created up to 12 months after installation of a generator and are not necessarily created for all systems. The calculation provides a slight under-estimate of installed capacity of the order of 3-5% for the most recent year.

9 Installed capacity (MW) Year Figure 6: Installed PV capacity (Clean Energy Regulator data) 2 Wind Farm Generation Wind output data for the major wind farms is sourced directly from AEMO, which collates half-hourly market interval data for the operation of the NEM. A detailed analysis of the performance of the Victorian wind generation sector is published quarterly by Sustainability Victoria for the State Government. Almost all wind generation capacity from large wind farms listed in Table 3, which presents the development of the wind sector and outlines the commissioning dates of the major wind farms: Table 3: Wind farm commissioning dates Site Capacity (MW) Commission Date Codrington 18.2 June 2001 Toora 21 July 2002 Challicum Hills 52.5 July 2003 Wonthaggi 12 December 2005 Portland Stage I (Yambuk) Portland Stage II (Cape Bridgewater) Portland Stage III (Cape Nelson South) 30 January November May 2009 Waubra 192 October 2009 Hepburn 4.1 July As discussed in body of text, the most recent 12 months data at time of publication is subject to review based on future STC creation data is assumed to underestimate installed capacity by 3 to 5%.

10 In 2011 Victorian wind energy provided 1,280 GWh of renewable electricity. Wind energy has been the largest contributor to Victoria s renewable electricity supply for the last three years. The annual generation outputs from existing wind farms are presented in Figure 7. Output (GWh) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 Hepburn Wonthaggi Codrington Toora Yambuk Challicum Hills Portland Waubra Year Figure 7: Wind farm outputs by year The performance of wind farms is represented in terms of the capacity factor which is the ratio of energy output to total possible energy output if the wind farm were outputting at maximum capacity at all times. Figure 8 presents the capacity factors for each wind farm since The weighted average across all farms and all years is 33.4 per cent. CF 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% % % 0% 2009 Challicum Hills Codrington Toora Wonthaggi Yambuk Waubra Portland Hepburn Figure 8: Wind farm capacity factors by year Figure 9 shows the utilisation metric used for wind farm performance assessment. Utilisation is the proportion of hours that the wind farm has a positive net output of power. Put simply, this number reflects the time the generator spends operating. Small farms with fewer turbines are prone to lower utilisation factors as maintenance on a single turbine implies a significantly reduced redundancy.

11 100% Utilisation 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Challicum Hills Codrington Toora Wonthaggi Yambuk Waubra Portland Hepburn Figure 9: Wind farm utilisation by year Wind Farm Supply-Duration Figure 10 shows the Victorian wind sector supply-duration curve. This graph shows the percentage of time when the wind energy output is greater or less than a proportion of total maximum installed capacity. For example, the amount of time spent generating above 20 per cent of rated capacity (0.2 of Output) is interpreted by reading the corresponding value on the horizontal axis (% time) for the year under consideration to be about 46% in Figure 10: Annual Victorian wind sector supply-duration curves It can be seen that in 2011 Victoria s wind farms were operating at up to 40% capacity for 35% of 2011.

12 The area below the curve gives the total annual generation as a proportion of possible generation had all units been outputting 100 per cent capacity at all times. A higher curve implies more output per unit of capacity. Figure 10 demonstrates that the wind sector s general trend of improving performance over the period since Electricity from Renewable Energy in Victoria 2011 Sustainability Victoria 2012 While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, Sustainability Victoria gives no warranty regarding its accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose and to the extent permitted by law, does not accept any liability for loss or damages incurred as a result of reliance placed upon the content of this publication. This publication is provided on the basis that all persons accessing it undertake responsibility for assessing the relevance and accuracy of its content. Electricity from Renewable Energy in Victoria 2011 should be attributed to Sustainability Victoria Electricity from Renewable Energy in Victoria 2011 is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. In essence, you are free to copy, distribute and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work and abide by the other licence terms. To view a copy of this licence, visit:

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