11 TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES

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1 11 TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES 9-14 January 2000 Long Beach, California SPONSORED BY AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Front Cover: Normalized precipitation departures associated with the ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) during the perioc January 1979 to June 1999 (Curtis and Adler 1999). Map shows the difference of normalized precipitation anomalies between an 81 month composite of high (El Nino) ESPI values ( +0.6) and an 82 month composite of low (La Nina) ESPI values ( -0.26). Curtis, S., and R. Adler, 1999: ENSO indices based on patterns of satellite derived precipitation. J. Climate, in press. The cover image was provided by the Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore and NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. For further information, refer to the Web site: All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means - graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems - without the prior written permission of the publisher. Contact AMS for permission pertaining to the overall collection. Authors retain their individual rights and should be contacted directly for permission to use their material separately. The manuscripts reproduced herein are unrefereed papers presented at the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies. The appearance in this collection does not constitute formal publication. UB/TIB Hannover AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 45 BEACON STREET, BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS USA

2 1 1" SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES SESSION 1: AGENCY RESEARCH PROGRAMS IN THE 21ST CENTURY 1.1 STATUS, PROGRESS, AND PLANS FOR THE USGCRP. Robert W. Cored, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA 1.2 STATUS, PROGRESS, AND FUTURE PLANS FOR NOAA'S GLOBAL CHANGE RELATED PROGRAMS. J. Michael Hall, NOAA, Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD 1.3 NASA'S STUDIES OF GLOBAL CHANGE: PROGRESS.OPPORTUNITIES, AND CHALLENGES. Jack A. Kaye, NASA, Office of Earth Systems, Washington, DC 1.4 STATUS, PROGRESS, AND FUTURE PLANS FOR DOE'S GLOBAL CHANGE RELATED PROGRAMS. Aristides A. Patrinos, U.S. Department of Energy, Germantown, MD 1.5 EPA'S GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM: ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON THE UNITED STATES. Joel D. Scheraga, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC SESSION 2: IPCC TAR: LONG-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: PART 1 I 2.1 IMPACT OF CO2-INDUCED WARMING ON HURRICANE INTENSITIES AS SIMULATED IN A HURRICANE MODEL WITH OCEAN COUPLING. Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya, W. Shen, and I. Ginis 2.2 SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE 20TH AND 21 ST CENTURIES. Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Arblaster 2.3 CAN A COMBINATION OF INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED GLOBAL WARMING OF THE EARLY 20TH CENTURY? Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. R. Knutson PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE FORCING BY SULFATE, ORGANIC AEROSOLS, DUST, AND SEA SALT: RESULTS FROM THE IPCC MODEL INTERCOMPARISON WORKSHOP. Joyce E. Penner, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ml; and Y. Zhang II 2.5 UNCERTAINTIES IN CLIMATE SYSTEM PROPERTIES AND ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL FORCINGS BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION METHODS. Chris E. Forest, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. R. Allen, P. H. Stone, and A. P. Sokolov A REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION OVER EAST ASIA. Seita Emori, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nozawa, A. Numaguti, and I. Uno SESSION 3: SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS (Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts) LONG-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN HAIL INCIDENCES IN THE UNITED STATES. David Changnon, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and S. A. Changnon REGIONAL IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: NEW CHALLENGES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTING AND SYNTHESIS. Stewart J. Cohen, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada 3.3 DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDEX TO MONITOR EXTREME WEATHER-CLIMATE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES. Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL; and G. J. D. Hewings and R. A. Pielke, Jr TEN-YEAR U.S. REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENTS. Zaitao Pan, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and J. H. Christensen, R. W. Arritt, W. J. Gutowski, Jr., and E. S. Takle COMBINING PALEOCLIMATIC EVIDENCE AND GCMS BY MEANS OF DATA ASSIMILATION THROUGH UPSCALING AND NUDGING (DATUN). Hans von Storch, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany; and U. Cubasch, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, J. M. Jones, R. Voss, M. Widmann, and E. Zorita Manuscript not available

3 OVERLOOKED ISSUES IN THE U.S. NATIONAL CLIMATE AND IPCC ASSESSMENTS. Roger A. Pielke, Sr., Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO SESSION 4: U. S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 4.1 THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT: AN OVERVIEW. Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING OF GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT FOR U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSES. William J. Gutowski, Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and R. Wilby, L. E. Hay, C. J. Anderson, R. W. Arritt, M. P. Clark, G. H. Leavesley, Z. Pan, R. Silva, and E. S. Takle THE ISSUE OF SPATIAL SCALE IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS: AN EXAMPLE OF AGRICULTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. Linda 0. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Carbone, W. Gao, L. McDaniel, E. Tsvetsinskaya, B. McCarl, and R. Adams COMPARISON OF GCM-PROJECTED DAILY MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. Julie A. Winkler, Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, Ml; and J. A. Andresen, G. Guentchev, J. A. Picardy, and E. A. Waller A SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MODEL OUTPUT: EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCES AND SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND HADLEY CLIMATE MODELS. Peter J. Sousounis, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ml 4.6 GAUGING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST USING OBSERVED CLIMATE VARIATIONS. Philip W. Mote, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. Hamlet, N. Mantua, and E. Miles ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOWSTORMS NEAR LAKE ERIE. Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and N. E. Westcott and D. A. R. Kristovich TRENDS IN SPRING SNOW COVER RETREAT OVER THE U.S. AND THE EFFECT OF OBSERVATION TIME BIAS. Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and B. Sun and R. R. Heim, Jr. SESSION 5: IPCC TAR: LONG-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: PART VARIATIONS IN THE SNOW MELT ONSET DATE DERIVED FROM PASSIVE MICROWAVE DATA. Sheldon D. Drobot, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. R. Anderson SPACEBORNE CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING BY GNSS OCCULTATION SENSORS. Gottfried Kirchengast, Univ. of Graz, Graz, Austria; and A. K. Steiner, U. Foelsche, L. Kornblueh, E. Manzini, and L. Bengtsson 5.3 SIGNATURE OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE IN FREQUENCIES OF NATURAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION REGIMES. Susanna Corti, CINECA, Casalecchio di Reno, Bologna, Italy; and F. Molteni and T. N. Palmer DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING USING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SEA ICE EXTENT. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, R. J. Stouffer, J. E. Walsh, C. L. Parkinson, D. J. Cavalieri, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. Garrett, and V. F. Zakharov GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS MODIFIED FOR WATER INTERFERENCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. W. F. J. Evans, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin and T. Ogawa ON THE MORPHOLOGY OF CLOUD ABSORPTION: PREFERENTIAL ATTENUATION OF NEAR INFRARED SOLAR RADIATION. L. C. McCormick, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin and W. F. J. Evans ESTIMATING THE ROLES OF RADIATION AND DYNAMICS IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM'S EQUILIBRIUM RESPONSE TO ENHANCED GREENHOUSE FORCING. J. Ray Bates, Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark Manuscript not available vi

4 SESSION 6: POLICY RESPONSES TO THE 1997/1998 EL NINO: IMPLICATIONS FOR FORECAST VALUE (Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts) WINNERS AND LOSERS: THE IMPACTS OF EL NlnO Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL MEDIA COVERAGE OF EL NINO: THE RISE OF A SIGNAL EVENT. Lee Wilkins, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO POLICY RESPONSES TO THE 1997/1998 EL NlnO: IMPLICATIONS FOR FORECAST VALUE AND THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE SERVICES. Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO WHO USED AND BENEFITTED FROM THE EL NlnO FORECASTS? David Changnon, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL THE SCIENTIFIC ISSUES ARISING FROM EL NlnO Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL SESSION 7: WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES 7.1 CLIMATE EXTREMES: INTRODUCTORY REMARKS. Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC 7.2 OBSERVED VARIABILITY AND TRENDS IN CLIMATE EXTREMES. David R. Easterling, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC 7.3 EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS IN PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE. Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO 7.4 TRENDS IN IMPACTS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES. Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO 7.5 OBSERVATIONS OF BIOTIC RESPONSE IN WILD SPECIES TO CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE. Camille Parmesan, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX GOVERNMENT POLICIES PRETAINING TO WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES. Stanley A. Changnon, ISWS, Champaign, IL POSTER SESSION P1: GLOBAL CHANGE P1.1 P1.2 P1.3 DATA RESCUE AT THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER. Stephen R. Doty, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. D. Elms CLOUD TYPE RADIATIVE EFFECTS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL SATELLITE CLOUD CLIMATOLOGY PROJECT. Ting Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow and Y. Zhang INVESTIGATION OF THE SENSITIVITY OF GLOBAL OCEANS TO CONTINENTAL RUNOFF USING THE PCM PARALLEL CLIMATE MODEL. Marcia L. Branstetter, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. S. Famiglietti, A. P. Craig, and W. M. Washington 92 P1.4 MICROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AT THE FOREST-ATMOSPHERE CARBON TRANSFER AND STORAGE (FACTS-II) ASPEN FACE FACILITY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. Warren E. Heilman, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, Ml; and R. M. Teclaw and J. E. Eenigenburg 96 P1.5 ON THE IMPACTS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND PRICES: COLD SURGES AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE COFFEE GROWING INDUSTRY IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL. Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil 99 P1.6 CARBON BUDGET AT TROPICAL FOREST IN THE AMAZON REGION. Gilberto Fisch, Centro Tecnico Aeroespacial, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil; and R. Ferreira da Costa, A. R. Pereira, A. D. Culf, Y. Malhi, C. A. Nobre, and A. D. Nobre 103 P1.7 MULTIPLE AGCM HINDCASTS OF Kathryn P. Shah, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and D. Rind Manuscript not available vii

5 105 P1.8 THE SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY. Grant Johnston, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo 109 P1.9 A STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF LA NlnA ON THE WEATHER OF U.S. CITIES. Susan F. Wood, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith and A. M. Siegrist 113 P1.10 A STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF EL NlnO ON THE WEATHER OF U.S. CITIES. Susan F. Wood, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith and M. J. Ledridge P1.11 DEVELOPMENT OF LATITUDINAL LAND AND SEA TEMPERATURE INDICES FOR CLIMATE MONITORING. Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and A. Basist and R. G. Quayle 117 P1.12 DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW U.S. CLIMATE ATLAS. Marc S. Plantico, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and L. A. Goss, C. Daly, and G. Taylor 119 P1.13 INTERNATIONAL STATION METEOROLOGICAL SUMMARY (ISMCS) WINDOWS, VERSION 1.0. M. Lawrence Nicodemus, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and 0. Brass 121 P1.14 STANDARD CLIMATIC NORMALS AND SUPPLEMENTAL NORMALS DEVELOPMENT. Greg Hammer, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Cram 123 P1.15 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PEAK ELECTICITY DEMAND IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. George M. Albercook, Center for Environmental Policy, Economics and Science, Ann Arbor, Ml; and A. Khotanzad 124 P1.16 SEASONAL CHANGES AND YEARLY BUDGETS OF CH4 AND CO2 FLUXES AT LOTUS FIELD IN JAPAN. Yoshinobu Harazono, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and A. Miyata, N. Ota, K. Takagi, and M. Komine (Formerly Paper 9.14) JOINT SESSION J1: SURFACE/ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS (Joint with the 15th Conference on Hydrology; Invited Session) J1.1 SOIL DUST MODELING FEEDBACKS OF DUST AND CLIMATE. Ina Tegen, Columbia Univ. and NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and R. Miller and J. Perlwitz J1.2 INCORPORATING VEGETATION AS A DYNAMIC ELEMENT IN THE HADLEY CENTRE GCM. Peter M. Cox, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK J1.3 J1.4 J1.5 J1.5A THE ROLES OF SUBGRID TOPOGRAPHY ON LAND-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS. L Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and M. S. Wigmosta INVESTIGATING THE EFFECT OF SEASONAL CROP GROWTH ON THE CLIMATE OF NCAR REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL. Elena Tsvetsinskaya, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. 0. Mearns and W. E. Easterling PAPER WITHDRAWN GLOBAL CLIMATE EFFECTS OF HEATING ANOMALIES RESULTING FROM TROPICAL LANDCOVER CHANGE. Thomas N. Chase, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Pielke, Sr., M. Zhao, A. J. Pitman, T. G. F. Kittel, R. R. Nemani, and S. W. Running J1.6 A MECHANISM FOR THE LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY OF THE SAHEL RAINFALL. Guiling Wang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. A. B. Eltahir J1.7 ROLE OF NATURAL VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN THE SAHEL DROUGHT. Guiling Wang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. A. B. Eltahir 134 J1.8 MODELLING THE IMPACT OF LAND SURFACE DEGRADATION ON THE CLIMATE OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA. Douglas B. Clark, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, UK; and Y. Xue Manuscript not available viii

6 136 J1.9 THE EFFECT OF LAND SURFACE PROCESSES ON THE 1991 FLOOD OVER YANGTZE-HUAI RIVER VALLEY AS SIMULATED FROM SUNYA REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL. Wei Gong, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W.-C. Wang and Y. Xue J1.10 PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE AMIP II DIAGNOSTIC SUBPROJECT 12: IMPLICATIONS FOR MODELING COUPLED ATMOSPHERE/LAND INTERACTIONS. Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA J1.11 CLIMATE SENSITIVITY TO LAND SURFACE PROCESSES: AN EVALUATION OF THREE LAND SURFACE SCHEMES COUPLED TO A SINGLE GCM. Andrea N. Hahmann, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ J1.12 LAND-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS: SUCCESSES, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS. Y. C. Sud, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. M. Mocko J1.13 SIMULATIONS WITH THE COUPLED ETA/SSIB MODEL OVER SOUTH AMERICA. Sin Chan Chou, INPE/CPTEC, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and C. A. S. Tanajura, Y.-K. Xue, and C. A. Nobre J1.14 SIMULATION OF LAND-OCEAN INFLUENCES ON THE INDIAN MONSOON IN SIMULATIONS OF PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE AND AT DOUBLED CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS. Lydia Dumenil Gates, Max-Planck-lnstitute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany J1.15 IMPACTS OF DEFORESTATION AND AFFORESTATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION AS SIMULATED BY THE MPI MODEL. Lydia Dumenil Gates, Max-Planck-lnstitute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and S. Liess 144 J1.16 DIURNAL CYCLE THE COUPLED ETA/SSIB MODEL FOR EL NINO AND LA NINA CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AMERICA. Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Laboratorio Nacional de Computacao Cientifica, Petropolis, RJ, Brazil; and S. C. Chou, Y.-K. Xue, and C. A. Nobre J1.17 CLIMATE DRIF IN THE COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM. Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD J1.18 TIMESCALES OF SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES: RESULTS FROM TWO GCMS. Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. C. D. Milly, C. A. Schlosser, and M. J. Suarez J1.19 IMPACTS OF SURFACE PROCESSES OVER LAND AND OCEAN ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH. Guoxiong Wu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Liu, H. Liu, P. Liu, and W. Li J1.20 VEGETATION-CLIMATE INTERACTION AND SAHEL CLIMATE VARIABILITY. Ning Zeng, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and W. K. M. Lau J1.21 SENSITIVITY OF GCM SIMULATIONS TO LAND SURFACE PROCESSES. Yongkang Xue, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. H. Juang, S. Y. Hong, M. Kanamitsu, and Y. Sud SESSION 8: ADVANCING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: PART THE WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME. Michael J. Coughlan, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland 8.2 ASTRONOMICAL EFFECTS ON THE WINTER CLIMATE OF THE MIDWEST. John C. Freeman, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. F. Hasling THE LITTLE SUMMER DROUGHT (VERANICO) DURING THE RAINY SEASON IN THE AMAZON BASIN. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIABILITY. Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoiera Paulista, SP, Brazil; and D. Mendes and L. Calvetti INTERDECADAL AND LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON BASIN. Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and G. Sampaio, H. Camargo, C. Castro, and M. Sanches 8.5 IMPACT OF THE PHENOMENON EL-NInO ON THE REGIME OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA OF THE MEDIUM AMAZON. David Mendes, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and J. Cohen nuscript not available jx

7 ATMOSPHERIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAHEL SUMMER RAINS AND LINKS TO GLOBAL SSTS WASSILA M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. D. Bell VARIABILITY OF ALL INDIA MONSOON RAINFALL. R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS PACIFIC-EAST ASIAN TELECONNECTIONS: HOW DOES ENSO AFFECT EAST ASIAN CLIMATE? Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Wu and X. Fu THE CLIMATOLOGY AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON AS REVEALED BY THE NCEP-NCAR REANALYSIS. Christopher L. Castro, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. B. McKee and R. A. Pielke, Sr DOMINANT FACTORS INFLUENCING THE SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY OF UNITED STATES PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE. Wayne Higgins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Leetmaa, Y. Xue, and A. Barnston INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. Qi Hu, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and J. W. Lee and C. J. Hays THE CURRENT DECADE-SCALE PRECIPITATION FLUCTUATION IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. Jurgen D. Garbrecht, USDA/ARS, El Reno, Oklahoma; and F. E. Rossel IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC SST ANOMALIES ON RUSSIAN WINTER SNOW ACCUMULATION. Hengchun Ye, Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID SESSION 9: ADVANCING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: PART OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN CALIFORNIA AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION. Charles Jones, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA THE NEW 20-YEAR GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY PROJECT (GPCP) MERGED SATELLITE AND RAINGAUGE MONTHLY ANALYSIS. Robert Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Huffman, P. P. Xie, B. Rudolf, A. Gruber, J. Janowiak, and many others associated with GPCP MULTI-YEAR VARIABILITY OF TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR. Rebecca J. Ross, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and J. X. L. Wang UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING A SUMMARY OF RECENT PROGRESS. John J. Bates, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and Z. Bergen and D. Jackson THE SENSITIVITY OF OCEAN RESPONSES TO WIND FORCING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. Xiaosu Xie, California Institute of Technology, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu ON THE DETECTION OF THE 1 TO 2 WEEK SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC DURING NOVEMBER 1986-APRIL1987. Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan WORLD WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAM. Frederic Delsol, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland IS EL NINO CHANGING? D. E. Harrison, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and N. K. Larkin LOCALIZED NORTH PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY. Mathew A. Barlow, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY CLIMATE ASSESSMENT OF INDO-PACIFIC REGION DURING William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. H. Wu CHANGES IN SEASONAL MEAN ATMOSPHERIC INTERNAL VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ENSO. Arun Kumar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Barnston, P. Peng, M. P. Hoerling, and L. Goddard 9.12 THE HEAT SOURCES AND SINKS OF THE EL NINO. De-Zheng Sun, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO Manuscript not available X

8 THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF BLOCKING ON A GLOBAL SCALE. Jason M. Wiedenmann, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo 9.14 PAPER MOVED TO POSTER SESSION P1, PAPER NUMBER P1.16. SESSION 10: IPCC TAR: LONG-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: PART UPPER AIR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS AND CHANGE. John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL MULTI-DECADAL CHANGES IN THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE. Dian J. Gaffen, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and B. D. Santer, J. S. Boyle, J. R. Christy, N. E. Graham, and R. J. Ross TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS (1979). John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. E. Parker, S. J. Brown, I. Macadam, and M. Stendel THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SURFACE AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ANOMALIES. Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. R. Christy DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE USING THE CARDS DATA SET. Robert E. Eskridge, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and H. Frederick, A. Holbrooks, M. Changery, A. Sterin, and 0. A. Alduchov PAN EVAPORATION TRENDS IN DRY AND HUMID REGIONS OF THE U.S. Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson and P. Y. Groisman A CENTENNIAL-SCALE CLIMATE-CHANGE ANOMALY OVER A SMALL REGION. Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic, Australia SESSION 11: IPCC TAR: LONG-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: PART HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS CHANGES AS INDICATORS OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE. Pavel Ya. Groisman, UCAR Project Scientist at NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and B. Sun TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY, AND SUMMERTIME EXTREME HEAT IN CHINA. Julian X. L. Wang, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and D. J. Gaffen A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL CLIMATE TRENDS IN ATLANTIC CANADA. Cindy N. Vallis, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and N. Frigault SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OVER CANADA. B. R. Bonsai, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang, L. A. Vincent, and W. D. Hogg 11.5 CLIMATE CHANGE INDICES DERIVED FROM DAILY IN SITU DATA. Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and P. Y. Groisman, B. E. Gleason, and D. R. Easterling DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVER CHINA: AN UPDATED ANALYSIS EXAMINING ADDITIONAL VARIABLES. Dale P. Kaiser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN A QUALITY ASSURED COMPARIS ( ON OF THE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND GROUND SURFACE TEMPERATURE HISTORIES FROM TWO NORTH AMERICAN MID-CONTINENT BOREHOLES. Paul E. Todhunter, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and W. D. Gosnold, Jr PAPER WITHDRAWN 11.8A CONTRIBUTION OF NORTH ATLANTIC INTERMEDIATE AND DEEP WATER MASSES TO THE EARTH'S HEAT BALANCE. Sydney Levitus, NODC/NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, and C. Stephens 11.9 RIVER DISCHARGE IN A DOUBLED CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMATE. Lydia Dumenil Gates, Max-Planck-lnstitute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and S. Hagemann Manuscript not available xi

9 11.10 IMPACT OF A CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE FRENCH RH6NE RIVER. Pierre Etchevers, V, Meteo-France, Saint Martin d'heres, France; and J. Noilhan, C. Golaz, E. Ledoux, E. Leblois, and C. Ottle INFLUENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, TROPOPHERIC HUMIDITY AND LAPSE RATE ON THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF CLEAR-SKY GREENHOUSE EFFECT. Hua Hu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu ON THE RELATION BETWEEN COMPLEX AND SIMPLE CLIMATE MODELS. Arthur C. Petersen, Utrecht Univ., Utrecht, Netherlands TRANSIENT GREENHOUSE GAS AND SULFATE AEROSOL FORCING OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. Eric E. Small, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and L. Mearns and F. Giorgi CHANGES IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM TRACKS IN THE NCAR CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL (CSM): CONTROL RUN VS. DOUBLED CO2. Michelle Shing-May Dunn, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Torrence SESSION 12: ADVANCING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: PART EVALUATING THE PERFORMANCE OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE FORECASTS. Jeffrey A. Shorter, TASC, Inc., Reading, MA; and M. J. Gibbas, R. J. Boucher, J. D. Goldstein, and R. F. Brammer INTERDECADAL CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE AND FREQUENCY OF ENSO MODE. Soon-ll An, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang and F.-F. Jin 12.3 PAPER WITHDRAWN 12.4 TELECONNECTIONS AND LOCAL RESPONSE TO TROPICAL SST ANOMALIES. Hui Su, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin, C. Chou, and N. Zeng FORECAST OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST AND SEA LEVEL USING MARKOV MODELS. Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD 12.6 UNDERSTANDING THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AS A RESULT OF OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE- LAND INTERACTIONS. Xiouhua Fu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang 12.7 AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE. Anthony J. Broccoli, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth and N.-C. Lau ANOMALY FORCING IN AN ENSEMBLE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATION. Jan F. Dutton, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. J. Barron ASSESSMENT OF THE UTILITY OF THE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IN THE PREDICTION OF DROUGHT. Ana P. Barros, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and G. S. Jenkins and R. Bindlish REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATION OF THE ANOMALOUS U.S. CLIMATE EVENTS WITH A VARIABLE RESOLUTION STRETCHED GRID GCM. Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Takacsand M. J. Suarez EXAMINING INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN WEST AFRICA FROM THE NCEP REANALYSES AND THE CCM3 FOR THE PERIOD OF Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. C. Mikovitz CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE, SCALE-INTERACTIONS AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN WEST AFRICA. LIMITATIONS AND CHALLENGES OF MODELING EFFORTS. Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. Gabra SIMULATION OF A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE: SENSITIVITY TO THE PARAMETERIZATION OF CONVECTION. M. Diop, Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale, Dakar-Yoff, Senegal; and J. F. Gueremy and J. P. Ceron Manuscript not available xii

10 11" SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES NON-MODAL GROWTH IN ENSO AND ITS INTERDECADAL CHANGE. Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD THE SST ANOMALIES DIPOLE IN THE EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC AND ITS RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE ENSO CYCLE. Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and W. T. Liu and C. R. Mechoso OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-LAND FEEDBACKS IN AN IDEALIZED MONSOON. Chia Chou, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin, H. Su, and N. Zeng EFFECTS OF A STOCHASTIC CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION ON TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY. Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin A STUDY OF INITIALIZATIONS FOR ENSO FORECAST MODELS. Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Leetmaa and M. Cane INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS IN SATELLITE OBSERVED TOP-OF-ATMOSPHERE LONGWAVE CLEAR-SKY RADIATION AND CONSISTENCY WITH DIAGNOSTICS FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS. Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and W. D. Braswell and D. Fitzjarrald JOINT SESSION J4: CLIMATOLOGY AND LONG-TERM SATELLITE DATA STUDIES: PART I (Joint with the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; Invited Session) 273 J4.1 CAN THE CURRENT SATELLITE SYSTEMS OBSERVE A CHANGE IN THE EARTH'S HYDROLOGIC CYCLE? David L. Randel, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO J4.2 THE GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY PROJECT (GPCP) STATUS, APPLICATIONS, AND FUTURE PUNS. Arnold Gruber, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD 277 J4.3 OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL SCALE SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING OF SNOW COVER. Richard Armstrong, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO J4.4 NEW RESULTS FROM CERES/TRMM ON TROPICAL RADIATIVE FLUXES. Bruce Wielicki, NASA/LARC, Langley, VA JOINT POSTER SESSION JP3: CLIMATOLOGY AND LONG-TERM SATELLITE DATA STUDIES: PART II (Joint with the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography) JP3.1 GPCP GLOBAL PENTAD PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS: A 20-YEAR DATA SET BASED ON GAUGE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES. Pingping Xie, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. R. Ferraro, J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, G. J. Huffman, R. F. Adler, and A. Gruber JP3.2 A GLOBAL PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE ON PERSISTENT EXTRATROPICAL FLOW ANOMALIES. George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and D. T. Bolvin JP3.3 TRMM-BASED MERGED PRECIPITATION ANALYSES. Robert Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Huffman, D. T. Bolvin, E. Nelkin, and S. Curtis JP3.4 JP3.5 SSM/I-DERIVED GLOBAL RAINFALL STATISTICS AND THEIR APPLICATION. Qihang Li, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. R. Ferraro EVALUATION OF THE GPCP RAINFALL PRODUCT VIA THE SURFACE REFERENCE DATA CENTER. J. Brad McGavock, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Greene, B. A. Gibson, and M. L. Morrissey JP3.6 OPTIMAL SCALES FOR COMPARING SATELLITE AND RAIN-GAUGE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR VERIFICATION PURPOSES. Thomas L. Bell, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. K. Kundu JP3.7 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF TROPICAL PRECIPITATION AS REPRESENTED IN SATELLITE-BASED DATA SETS. Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and D. Fitzjarrald, J. Roads, and E. McCaul 'Manuscript not available xiii

11 291 JP3.8 VARIABILITY OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGER (TMI). Ye Hong, Caelum Research Corp., Rockville, MD; and C. D. Kummerow and W. S. Olson 296 JP3.9 DIFFERENCES IN SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC. Wesley Berg, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO 297 JP3.10 LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION AND LATENT HEATING DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE TROPICS FROM SSM/I AND TRMM TMI/PR. William S. Olson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and Y. Hong, S. Yang, Z. S. Haddad, C. D. Kummerow, and W.-K. Tao 301 JP3.11 EVALUATION OF A NEW TECHNIQUE TO COMBINED MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA FOR ESTIMATION OF SMALL-SCALE RAINFALL OVER THE GLOBAL TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS. Martin C. Todd, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, UK; and C. K. Kidd, D. R. Kniveton, T. J. Bellerby, and D. Kilham 305 JP3.12 A COMBINED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE TECHNIQUE FOR STUDYING THE DIURNAL VARIATION OF RAINFALL OVER AMAZONIA. Andrew J. Negri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Xu, R. F. Adler, E. Anagnostou. and T. M. Rickenbach 309 JP3.13 IDENTIFYING THE RELATIONSHIP OF A SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WETNESS WITH PRECIPITATION AND RIVER DISCHARGE. Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. Williams, A. Chang, R. R. Ferraro, N. Grody, and T. Ross 310 JP3.14 OBSERVING THE DIURNAL CHARACTERISTICS OF MARINE STRATOCUMULUS DRIZZLE USING THE TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGER. Thomas J. Greenwald, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO JP3.15 TYPICAL EVOLUTION OF COLD CLOUD PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH WET AND DRY SPELLS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE WET SEASON. Malaquias Pena, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. W. Douglas 311 JP3.16 HIGH RESOLUTION SPACE/TIME VARIATIONS OF CLOUD CONDITIONS FROM THE CHANCES DATA SET. Thomas H. Vonder Haar, Science and Technology Corp., Fort Collins, CO; and M. A. Ringerud and D. L. Reinke 313 JP3.17 STUDY OF DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SQUALL LINES OVER THE SAHEL AND THEIR INTERACTION WITH THE ATMOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT. Adamou Garba, Laboratoire de Physique de I'Atmosphere, Dakar Fann, Senegal; and S. Fongang and G. Jenkins SESSION 13: IPCC TAR: LONG-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: PART EFFECT OF OPTICAL THICKNESS CONSTRAINT ON THE INFERENCE OF CLOUD LAYER OVERLAP AND ATMOSPHERIC RADIATIVE HEATING PROFILE FROM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. Ting Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and Y. Zhang and W. B. Rossow SIMULATIONS OF AEROSOL INDIRECT EFFECT FOR IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS. Catherine C. Chuang, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. E. Penner and Y. Zhang CIRRUS CLOUD INFRARED SCATTERING AND ABSORPTION IN A GCM RADIATIVE MODEL. Everette Joseph, Howard Univ., Washington, DC EVALUATION OF CLOUD-RADIATION SENSITIVITIES TO ALTERNATIVE CLOUD AND CONVECTION SCHEMES. Sam F. lacobellis, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and D. E. Lane CLIMATE SIMULATION OVER JAPAN IN SUMMER WITH AN MRI REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL: PRESENT DAY AND 2XCO 2 EXPERIMENTS. Kazuyo Adachi, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and Y. Sato, H. Sasaki, A. Noda, and S. Yukimoto VALIDATION OF A STOCHASTIC RADIATIVE TRANSFER MODEL. Dana E. Lane, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and S. F. lacobellis ANALYSIS OF FORCING METHODS FOR SINGLE-COLUMN MODELS. Sam F. lacobellis, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and D. E. Lane Manuscript not available xiv

12 SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES ON DETECTING THE SIGNATURE OF REGIONAL AEROSOL RADIATIVE FORCING IN EASTERN CHINA. Shaocai Yu, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and V. K. Saxena and Z. Zhao EVALUATING THE CLIMATIC RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN CO 2 AND SOLAR LUMINOSITY. Zavareh Kothavala, Yale Univ., New Haven, CT; and R. J. Oglesby and B. Saltzman GCM EXPERIMENTS TO TEST A PROPOSED DYNAMICAL STABILIZING MECHANISM IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. Vladimir Alexeev, Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; and J. R. Bates ANALYSIS OF CGCM CONTROL RUNS FROM CMIP-II. Krishna AchutaRao, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and C. Covey COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL EXPERIMENTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON IPCC SRES SCENARIOS. Toru Nozawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and S. Emori, T. Takemura, T. Nakajima, A. Numaguti, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Kimoto JOINT SESSION J5: CLIMATOLOGY AND LONG-TERM SATELLITE DATA STUDIES: PART III (Joint with the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; Invited Session) 356 J5.1 CALCULATING GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES FROM THE MSU, A NEVER ENDING STORY? John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. W. Spencer and W. D. Braswell JOINT POSTER SESSION JP4: CLIMATOLOGY AND LONG-TERM SATELLITE DATA STUDIES: PART IV (Joint with the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography) JP4.1 CALIBRATION OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNELS. Francois-Marie Breon, CIRES and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Bates and W. Rossow 860 JP4.2 PASSIVE MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS OF WATER VAPOR PROFILES DURING TWO ENSO EVENTS. Clay B. Blankenship, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and T. T. Wilheit 162 JP4.3 WATER VAPOR WINDS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES. Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and J. A. Lerner JP4.4 JP4.5 JP4.6 JP4.7 SATELLITE-DERIVED POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEANS. Cheng-Zhi Zou, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and M. L. Van Woert CHARACTERIZATION AND VALIDATION OF THE HEAT STORAGE VARIABILITY FROM TOPEX/POSEIDON AT FOUR OCEANOGRAPHIC SITES. Paulo S. Polito, JPL, California Inst. of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and 0. T. Sato and W. T. Liu A REGIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AMAZON BASIN. Tracy L. DeLiberty, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and J. A. Callahan, A. R. Guillory, and G. J. Jedlovec COMPARISON OF DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM SATELLITE AND MODEL REANALYSIS FIELDS. Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and R. J. Suggs and S. Haines JP4.8 DIURNAL VARIATION OF OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION: PRELIMINARY RESULTS BASED ON HARMONIC ANALYSIS OF THE ERBS OBSERVATIONS. Pingping Xie, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and S.-K. Yang JP4.9 JP4.10 JP4.11 ERBE-LIKE AND ISCCP-LIKE OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION FROM SCANNER FOR RADIATION BUDGET PROJECT. Ting Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow and Y. Zhang ERBE SCENE IDENTIFICATION AS SEEN BY ISCCP: RESULTS FROM SCARAB DATA. Ting Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow A 20-YR TOVS RADIANCE PATHFINDER DATA SET FOR CLIMATE ANALYSIS. Darren L. Jackson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Bates cript not available xv

13 390 JP4.12 EOF ANALYSIS OF ZONALLY AVERAGED MSU RADIANCES ( ). Grant W. Petty, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN JP4.13 RECONCILING SURFACE AND SATELLITE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS. Brian Soden, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ 394 JP4.14 A NEW LOOK AT THE McCANN STUDY OF THE ENHANCED-V SIGNATURE. Steven J. Caruso, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and R. Rabin, D. Zaras, and J. LaDue 398 JP4.15 GOES-8 VISIBLE CLOUD FREQUENCY COMPOSITES OF THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SEA BREEZE UNDER STRATIFIED SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. Bernadette H. Connell, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. J. Gould 402 JP4.16 THE USE OF SATELLITE DATA IN AN OPTIMAL INTERPOLATION ASSIMILATION SCHEME. Randall J. Alliss, Litton-TASC, Chantilly, VA; and M. E. Loftus, D. Apling, and J. Lefever JP4.17 SUPPRESSED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki-ken, Japan Manuscript not available xvi