What is Behavioral Economics? 10/8/2013. Learner Outcomes

Transcription

1 Making it Easier for Clients to Act Applying Behavioral Economic Concepts to Financial Planning Carol S. Craigie, MA, ChFC, CFP Professor College for Financial Planning Learner Outcomes Explain the critical behavioral economic concepts that impact each phase of the financial planning process. Understand how to utilize confirmation skills to make sure clients really understand how our recommendations will improve their lives. List several common practices to avoid with clients that make it difficult for them to act. 2 What is Behavioral Economics? The study of social, cognitive, and emotional factors in understanding the economic decisions of individuals *See citations and recommended readings at end of presentation. 3 1

2 What stops people from acting? Lack of understanding Lack of trust Obstacles to overcome 4 Fact Finding/Initial Meetings How, What & When information is given: Priming Expectations impact Framing effect Gain vs. Loss & loss aversion Mere exposure effect How information is heard: Confirmation bias False consensus effect Illusion of transparency Optimism bias (Valence effect) Ownership bias 5 Priming & Creating Expectations What expectations are you creating if: Meeting starts with what YOU and YOUR FIRM provide Every review and statement starts with quarterly returns compared to indexes Pictures on wall show young people enjoying expensive vacations? Entry table magazine cover highlights top 10 swindlers? 6 2

3 Framing Effect & Gain vs. Loss When interpreting unfamiliar information, humans look for a framework of similar experiences to make a decision. What framework are you giving them? How you ask a question or frame a statement may have more impact than the concept behind the question or statement. We are projecting you will retire with 60% of your current income. We are projecting you will need to cut your expenses by 40% in retirement. 7 Mere Exposure Effect The more people hear about something, the more comfortable they are and like it. Explain problems and potential solutions others have used as you discuss issues. Use confirmation skills to make sure client understands so they are repeating them to you. Ask them to prioritize potential solutions so they have heard it a third time! 8 Confirmation Bias We hear the details that confirm our view and quickly forget or misinterpret the ones that conflict. 9 3

4 False Consensus Effect BOBBLE HEAD RESPONSE! 10 Illusion of Transparency Both advisors and clients think they are better understood than they really are, so we have to work hard at clear understanding and demonstrating trustworthiness. 11 Optimism Bias The odds are in my favor that it won t be me. Besides, the odds apply to other people. It will turn out anyway there s nothing wrong and there is no elephant in the room! Implications: Unless risks are stated, restated, vividly explored, and owned, there is a good chance that people will not choose solutions. 12 4

5 Ownership Bias People like their own ideas best and will take more responsibility for implementing if they actively participate. Too much effort on their part and they won t participate. Too little effort on their part and they won t buy in. 13 Create Ownership Have clients describe the problems. Show critical characteristics of potential solutions and have them prioritize solution components. Let them prioritize, move goal cards, push buttons, rearrange cards, have the remote, etc. 14 To COMBAT Lack of Understanding Confirmation Skills What components that I just described strikes you as most important? How do you think this strategy would benefit you? Which of the drawbacks I described would be of the most concern to you? Tell me what you think the consequences of not addressing this issue could be? AVOID THE BOBBLE HEAD RESPONSE! 15 5

6 Crafting your presentation Framing Effect Choice Architecture Ambiguity Effect 16 Choice Architecture Too many or too few choices being offered? Is a frame for decision-making provided or primed? Is it easy for them to see the consequences of the choices? Are you nudging the client ethically and in the right direction? 17 Ambiguity Effect Give details to avoid Ambiguity Effect and choose to continue status quo. Offer alternatives with pros and cons to aid decisions and avoid clients feeling trapped, which causes inaction. 18 6

7 Presenting Plans & the Decision-Making Process Presenter Actions Priming & Expectations Framing Effect Confirmation Bias Loss Aversion Client Understanding Ambiguity Effect Information Bias Hyperbolic Discounting Optimism Bias 19 Priming & Expectations Before starting into the presentation: What is your message about the client s role in the meeting? What expectations are you setting? Timing? Level of detail? Errors in content? Decision-making expectations? Timing of questions? Your ideas or their ideas? 20 Framing Effect What context is used yours or theirs? Do they see themselves in the picture you are painting? Does it provide a frame to make decisions? Are you tying your recommendations to their language, goals, and values? 21 7

8 Loss Aversion Are you presenting and using confirmation skills so people understand what they will lose by taking or not taking action? 22 Information Bias When clients ask for more information, do you know what they hope to learn? Why do you chase information that has no meaning? Why do clients ask for financial plan reruns over small errors or changes? 23 Hyperbolic Discounting Our brains don t understand difference between nominal and real money. Intellectually we understand inflation, but given choices, our brain relies on figures. That is why future value numbers have little meaning for clients in financial planning reports. Hyperbolic Discounting Prefer smaller, sooner payoffs to larger, later payoffs People misjudge time frames consistently 24 8

9 Optimism Bias People tend to disregard probabilities when making decisions that involve a degree of uncertainty. The stronger the emotion related to outcome, the more likely probability is ignored. What does this imply about investment risk, disability planning, long-term care insurance? Even though we addressed it in the fact find, it should be revisited! 25 Priming What non-verbal messages are being given prior to start of experience? Expectations Impact What client and advisor expectations exist and are created before you engage? Framing Effect Are you providing the context to consider the decision? Gain vs. Loss & Loss Aversion How is your data gathering framed gain vs. loss and which helps the client be more realistic? 26 Mere Exposure Effect What are you doing to create familiarity with problems and solutions? Confirmation Bias Have you consistently used confirmation skills to avoid this problem for both you and client? False Consensus Effect Is your client really agreeing with you? Does your client think you are agreeing because you were silent? Illusion of Transparency What does the client think you understand about them? 27 9

10 Optimism Bias How are you getting clients engaged in overcoming only good times bias? How can you help clients own probability to make it real? Ownership Bias How are you getting clients engaged in owning problems and solutions? Choice Architecture Have you designed the choices for solutions so it makes it easier for clients to choose? Hyperbolic discounting Have you helped clients overcome the tendency to believe it will be easier in the future, less expensive and easier to save? 28 Make it easy for clients to act! Make it easy to understand Make it easy to see your trustworthiness Remove obstacles or at least don t put any more in the way! 29 Priming Citations & Resources Ariely, D. (2010). The Upside of Irrationality. New York: HarperCollins. Pg 246 Bargh, J. A., and Pietromonaco, P. (1982). Automatic information processing and social perception: the influence of trait information presented outside of conscious awareness on impression formation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43, pp Expectations Impact Chang, J. (2011). A case study of the Pygmalion Effect": Teacher expectations and student achievement. International Education Studies, 4(1), pp Leonard Lee, Shane Frederick, and Dan Ariely. Try It, You'll Like It: The Influence of Expectation, Consumption, and Revelation on Preferences for Beer. Psychological Science December : pp Framing Effect Khaneman, D.; Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist 39 (4): pp Ariely, D., Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (2005). Tom Sawyer and the construction of value. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 60(1), (Working paper version). Michael M. Pompian, Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management : How to Build Investment Strategies That Account for Investor Biases, second edition, pp Gain vs. Loss & Loss Aversion Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decisions Under Risk, Econometrica 47 (1979): pp Mere Exposure Effect Zajonc (1968) showed Chinese characters to people from one to 25 times, asking them to guess the meaning. The more they saw a character the more positive a meaning they gave. Miller (1976) showed people posters about stopping foreign aid up to 200 times. They were persuaded most by moderate exposure. After 200 exposures they reacted negatively to the message! Kunst-Williams and Zajonc briefly (1 ms) showed octagons to experimental participants. Although they were later unable to identify the octagons, their liking for the shapes increased

11 Confirmation Bias Michael M. Pompian, (2012). Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management : How to Build Investment Strategies That Account for Investor Biases second edition, Pg 63. Snyder, M. and Cantor, N. (1979), Testing Hypotheses about Other People: The Use of Historical Knowledge, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 15, False Consensus effect Marks, G. and Miller, N. (1987). Ten years of research on the false consensus effect: an empirical and theoretical review. Psychological Bulletin, 102, Illusion of transparency Savitsky, K., & Gilovich, T. (2003). The illusion of transparency and the alleviation of speech anxiety. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 39, Thomas Gilovich and Kenneth Savitsky, (Dec., 1999). The Spotlight Effect and the Illusion of Transparency: Egocentric Assessments of How We Are Seen by Others, Current Directions in Psychological Science, Vol. 8, No. 6, pp Published by: Sage Publications, Inc. on behalf of Association for Psychological Science Optimism Bias (Valence Effect) Rosenhan, D.L. and Messick, S. (1966). Affect and expectation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 3, Ownership Bias Norton, M. I., Mochon, D., & Ariely, D. The IKEA Effect: When Labor Leads to Love. Harvard Business School Marketing Unit Working Paper, (11-091). Ariely, D. (2010) The Upside of Irrationality. New York: Harper Collins pgs * 110. Choice Architecture Selinger, E., & Whyte, K. P. (2010). Competence and trust in choice architecture. Knowledge, Technology, & Policy, 23(3-4), Ambiguity Effect Frisch, D., & Baron, J. (1988). Ambiguity and rationality. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1, pp Information Bias Baron, J., Beattie, J., & Hershey, J. C. (1998). Heuristics and biases in diagnostic reasoning: II. Congruence, information, and certainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 42, pp Hyperbolic Discounting Frederick, Shane; Loewenstein, George; O'Donoghue, Ted (2002). Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review. Journal of Economic Literature 40 (2): pp Acquisti, Alessandro; Grossklags, Jens (2004). Losses, Gains, and Hyperbolic Discounting: Privacy Attitudes and Privacy Behavior. In Camp, J.; Lewis, R. The Economics of Information Security. Kluwer. pp Great Books: Airely, D. (2008). Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape our Decisions. New York: Harper Collins Airely, D. (2010). The Upside of Irrationality. New York: HarperCollins. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux Pompian, M. M. (2012). Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management. Hoboken: Wiley Finance