Welsh Index of Business Services Quarter 1, 2008

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1 SDR 122/ August 2008 Welsh of Business Services Quarter 1, 2008 Welsh of Business Services The of Business Services for for the latest four quarters rose by 1.1 per cent compared with the previous four quarters. The UK index rose by 5.3 per cent over the same period UK 70 Seasonally adjusted indices of business services for (2003=) OWNER OCCUPIED DWELLINGS (OOD) OTHER BUSINESS SERVICES (1) REAL ESTATE IoB EXC. OOD Weights (2) QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR Percentage change: latest 4 quarters compared with same period a year ago (3) UK (4) 5.3 n/a n/a n/a (1) For more detail of sectors included please refer to background notes (2) Based on GVA in 2003 (3) Percentage change between the period 2007Q2-2008Q1 and the period 2006Q2-2007Q1 (4) UK data is not available at sub-series level Contact: Tel: Next Update: Nov 2008 (provisional)

2 Real Estate (excl. OOD) (SIC Div 70 excl. SIC 70.20/2) Output in the Welsh Real estate sector (excl. OOD) for the latest 4 quarters increased by 6.2 per cent compared to the same 4 quarters a year ago. Output decreased by 10.7 per cent in the latest quarter compared to the previous quarter. Owner Occupied Dwellings (OOD) (SIC 70.20/2) Output in the Welsh Owner Occupied Dwellings (OOD) sector for the latest 4 quarters increased by 1.5 per cent compared to the same 4 quarters a year ago. Output increased by 0.5 per cent in the latest quarter compared to the previous quarter. OOD is an estimate of the economic benefit of owner occupied dwellings to the people who live in them. It is included for consistency with the UK IoB and the National Accounts. This economic benefit is based on the rent for similar private rented dwellings. Other Business Services (SIC Divs 71-74: Renting of machinery; Computer activities; Research and development; Other business activities) Output in the remainder of the Welsh Business services sector for the latest 4 quarters increased by 0.4 per cent compared to the same 4 quarters a year ago. Output decreased by 5.9 per cent in the latest quarter compared to the previous quarter. See 'Notes' section for examples of activity covered in 'Other business services'.

3 NOTES 1. The Welsh of Business Services (IoB) contains indices referenced to 2003= and is consistent with the annually weighted and chained estimates of output published for the UK. 2. The Welsh of Business Services shows the quarterly movements in the gross value added (GVA) of the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC2003) section K: Real estate, Renting and Business activities, which comprises the following divisions: 70: Real estate activities 71: Renting of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and household goods 72: Computer and related activities 73: Research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering 74: Other business activities Division 70 is disaggregated further into: Imputed rent of owner occupied dwellings (OOD, part of SIC 70.20/9); Letting of property to tenants (the remainder of SIC 70.20/9) and the remainder of Division 70 which includes Development, buying & selling of real estate, and Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis. Divisions are not presented individually in this release due to the relatively small weights of divisions and are therefore shown in aggregate being referred to as Other business services. Other business services cover a wide range of activities. Examples of these activities are given below: Div 71: Renting of cars; renting of other machinery; renting of videos and DVD s. Div 72: Computer and related activities; hardware consultancy, software consultancy and supply; data processing. Div 73: Research and development. Div 74: Legal services; accounting services; management consultancy; market research; public relations; management of holding companies; architectural services; design services; quantity surveyors; engineering consultancy; other technical consultancy; advertising; personnel recruitment; private security services; industrial cleaning; photo processing; secretarial and translation services; call centres; credit reporting; conference and exhibition organisers. As a whole, these industries accounted for 17.0 per cent of the Welsh economy in 2003 (Regional Accounts GVA), a typical level across most regions in the UK. The same industries accounted for 24.5 per cent of the UK GVA in the same year; the high UK level is caused by the predominance of this sector in London and the South East. 3. The index has been produced in partnership with the Office for National Statistics. This First Release and headline statistics are available on the Statistics for website at: KEY QUALITY INFORMATION: INDEX OF BUSINESS SERVICES Interpreting the data 4. The quarterly data can be volatile. When looking at growth rates, it is recommended that users focus on the percentage change between the latest four quarters and the same time period a year earlier. 5. The Welsh of Business Services is now a National Statistic. The reasons for making it a National Statistic are: The development period is complete. Further methodological improvements have taken place including a full methodological review by the Office for National Statistics. For the same reasons the Welsh of Distribution, Welsh of Hotels and Restaurants and the Welsh of Transport, Storage and Communication also became National Statistics from April 1 st 2008.

4 Source of the Welsh data 6. Division 70 has a number of sources as follows: 70.1 Real estate activities with own property HMRC (number of property transactions) 70.20/1 Letting of conference and exhibition centres - IDBR, ONS (Employment) 70.20/9 Other letting of own property Local Government Data Unit (Dwelling stocks); and Regional Accounts, ONS (OOD Imputed rent) 70.3 Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis a top-up survey of 63 Welsh companies was undertaken by ONS. Divisions of the IoB are estimated using Welsh turnover derived from GB companies active in and selected for the existing MIDSS survey - Monthly Inquiry into the Distribution and Service Sector, with the addition of employment data from the Short Term Employment Surveys (STES), ONS for a small sub-sector of division 74. Revisions 6. Estimates for the last few quarters are subject to revision. Estimates for individual quarters fluctuate due to random sampling error and emphasis is placed on changes in the average of the latest 4 quarters compared with the average of the previous 4 quarters. Methodology 8. A methodological note is available electronically on the Statistics for website at: 9. The weights associated with Welsh data are based on 2003 GVA data, derived from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI). As part of the chainlinking process, these weights will be updated annually. Release policy 10. The details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Statistics for website at: Produced by the Office for National Statistics

5 TABLE 1: INDEX OF BUSINESS SERVICES Seasonally adjusted (1) 2003= 2003 SIC Business Services Real Estate excl. OOD Owner Occupied Dwellings Other Business Services UK Weights Annual Averages (r) (r) (r) (r) (r) (r) (r) 1998 QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR (r) QTR QTR (r) QTR (r) (r) 2002 QTR (r) (r) QTR (r) QTR (r) QTR QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) 2004 QTR (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) 2005 QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) 2006 QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR 4.7 (r) (r) (r) 2007 QTR (r) (r) 97.8 (r) (r) QTR 2.8 (r) (r) 99.5 (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) (r) 2008 QTR (1) UK data revised 27 June 2008

6 TABLE 2: THE INDEX OF BUSINESS SERVICES QUARTERLY GROWTH RATES Seasonally adjusted (1) 2003= 2003 SIC Business Services Real Estate Excl. OOD Owner Occupied Dwellings Other Business Services UK Weights QTR 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR (r) QTR (r) QTR (r) (r) QTR QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR QTR (r) (r) QTR QTR (r) (r) QTR QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) 2005 QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) 2006 QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) 2007 QTR (r) 1.5 (r) 1.9 (r) (r) QTR (r) 1.6 (r) 1.7 (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) 0.7 (r) (r) 2008 QTR

7 TABLE 3: THE INDEX OF BUSINESS SERVICES FOUR QUARTER ON FOUR QUARTER GROWTH RATES Seasonally adjusted (1) 2003= 2003 SIC Business Services Real Estate Excl. OOD Owner Occupied Dwellings Other Business Services UK Weights QTR 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a QTR 2 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a QTR 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a QTR 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1999 QTR 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a QTR 2 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a QTR 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR (r) QTR (r) QTR (r) QTR QTR (r) QTR (r) QTR (r) QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR QTR (r) QTR (r) QTR QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) (r) QTR (r) (r) 2007 QTR (r) 5.7 (r) 3.4 (r) (r) QTR (r) 5.8 (r) 6.3 (r) (r) QTR (r) 5.9 (r) 6.6 (r) (r) QTR (r) 5.9 (r) 8.0 (r) (r) 2008 QTR

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