ACT Adaptation to Climate Change Team

Transcription

1 ACT Adaptation to Climate Change Team Presentation to CARII Tuesday April 12th, 2011 Climate Change Adaptation - Community Challenges and Solutions Deborah Harford Executive Director, ACT (Adaptation to Climate Change Team) Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC

2 Communities and Climate Change Communities are on the front lines of climate change: First to feel the impacts Must rely on often inadequate resources to develop timely proactive and reactive responses Generally caught in a maze of overlapping jurisdictions regarding issues such as building standards, drinking water regulations, etc.

3 Climate Impacts: Canadian Examples 1998 ice-storm in eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and parts of the Maritime - 28 deaths and over 900 injuries. Insured losses totaled over $5.4 billion flooding in southern Quebec destroyed >1,000 homes, evacuation of 16,000 people, damages in excess of $1.7 billion tornado in Pine Lake, Alberta killed 12, injured > 140, estimated $30 million in damages extreme storm in BC cut power to 200,000 Vancouver households, boil-water advisory for record two million, cost $80 million in insured losses, $2 million to clean up debris (trees) in Stanley Park.

4 Climate Impacts: Canadian Examples 2002 drought: grain and oilseed loss $2.8 billion; crop insurance payments of $803 million; cost Canadian economy over $5 billion BC wildfires: required the evacuation of 45,000 in the Kelowna region; total costs of roughly $700 million BC wildfire season: record 85 percent of province faced high or extreme fire hazard level. 17,000 residents evacuated; government spent over $138.6 million to fight the fires. Vancouver broke all time temperature records on July 29 th only to break a newly-set record on the 30 th - 34C and 34.4C respectively = health.

5 Critical Infrastructure and Extreme Weather Extreme weather damage to infrastructure is predicted to increase: Canada s physical infrastructure aging; many structures and facilities approaching or have exceeded their normal service life. Over 80 percent of Canadians living in urban areas of 10,000 or more. Small increase in the magnitude or intensity of extreme weather events could bring about a major increase in damage to infrastructure systems. Interdependence of infrastructure systems = potential for complex failures. The First National Engineering Vulnerability Assessment of Public Infrastructure revealed the following regarding public infrastructure: Water resource systems vulnerable to heavy precipitation events and drought conditions; Power supply systems vulnerable to ice storms and windstorms; Most buildings vulnerable to increased loads from snow and wind.

6 Adaptation Response: Vancouver To Date Provincial Emergency Program (PEP) Engineering department modeling for risks to sewers BC Government taking action on emissions reduction - adaptation next? New Vancouver Mayor is pro-climate action - ditto? No coherent adaptation policy at either City or provincial level though both are proposed in broad strokes BUT: British High Commission study: Vancouver is 32nd in the world in terms of coastal vulnerability; 16th in terms of value of assets at risk: Airport at sea level (private industry) Port & rail/freight terminals (federal) Downtown buildings exposed New very recent waterfront developments Rich property owners - hardly the most disadvantaged! Actions: Richmond: $13 million coastal reinforcement plan (issues with private property) Delta: Example coming up! BC Government researching storm surge projections Vancouver??

7 Adaptation Imperative: Vancouver Forecast Here s how much land Greater Vancouver municipalities are forecast to lose to the sea by the year 2300, based on a six-metre ocean level rise: Richmond 91 % Delta 76 % Pitt Meadows 76 % Port Coquitlam 51 % New Westminster 32 % Surrey 23 % Maple Ridge 22 % Burnaby 7 % Coquitlam 9 % Vancouver 9 % Langley 6 % White Rock 3 % North Vancouver 3 % Port Moody 1 % West Vancouver 0 %

8 What Communities Need Regional climate data and scenarios Analysis of adaptive capacity The business case Resources for implementation of solutions Ability to educate citizens and management Leadership for short- and long-term action Coordination between jurisdictions AND stakeholders AND practitioners Insights from others in similar positions Mainstream: New approach: AMSD?

9 What Communities Have Limited or no access to regional climate data Limited understanding of adaptive capacity Limited ability to analyze adaptive capacity No resources for implementation of solutions - too many competing priorities for small tax bases Challenges educating citizens: doubts over veracity of science/concern for economic stability Lack of leadership for long-term action - outside political terms/instability of political decisions Widespread jurisdictional fragmentation Coordination with other communities is limited

10 AMSD/SAM: Holistic Adaptive Approach [adaptive emissions] Expanded use of air conditioners, aquaculture and sea walls Emissions increased A Vulnerability reduced [AMSD] Drought preparedness through demand side management; expanded application of recycling and conservation principles Emissions reduced M Rapid deforestation for land use change (agriculture, mining, etc.) [unsustainable] Vulnerability increased Forest plantations for carbon sequestration; expansion of large hydro development [new vulnerabilities] Linkages Between Adaptation (A) & Mitigation (M) (EC)

11 How Policy Can Help Policy drives all levels of government, e.g.: Require climate data to be mandated as part of risk assessments Create bridge between science and policy - give decision-makers practical, effective tools Establish centralized resources/communications initiatives that save money and time Consolidate short-term leadership goals with long-term political legacies Create sustainable standards and land use Generate funding through taxes/incentives ACT is a five-year program that brings together multi-disciplinary groups and researches opportunities to support policy development of this kind at the municipal, provincial and federal government levels. We engage seasoned policy leaders to guide the process for each topic.

12 Aspects of Vulnerability The extent of damage from climate change depends to a great extent on vulnerability: Exposure E.g. geography/energy infrastructure Sensitivity E.g. vulnerable population groups/continuity of systems Adaptive capacity Information Expertise and networks Fiscal capacity Political support

13 Adaptation Planning Concepts Knowledge mobilization/outreach Raise awareness/provide resources/engage practitioners New data/tools Information to assist decision-making/adapt ongoing processes Think locally, with help from above Because of the enormous variety in regional differences geographically, economically, demographically, etc., adaptation is by definition a locallydriven concept, BUT needs support from higher levels of government in terms of resources of various kinds. E.g. protect ecosystems! Build expertise Universities/professional associations can help! Smart adaptation requires expertise not yet familiar to sustainability professionals. Career development and new personnel will benefit the initiatives described above and help capitalize on the potential for job growth. Cheer & Steer! We re all tired of Doom & Gloom, and there are opportunities to benefit as well as ways to prepare.

14 Key Instruments/Tools Land Use Planning Incorporate adaptation lens to inform long-term decisions that reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity, e.g. land-use planning can limit exposure of key assets. Insurance - Will play an important role, e.g. adaptive adjustments during rehabilitation of insured structures - Variable, risk-based premiums can offer incentive to reduce risk/relocate - However, failing to address underlying vulnerability issues will limit effectiveness of insurance as an adaptive tool - must be incorporated into a suite of complementary measures. Codes and standards Building codes and standards can be a powerful adaptation tool if climate change is incorporated as a risk factor. Canada National Building Code periodic revisions provide opportunities to mainstream adaptation into construction.

15 Key Adaptation Principles ACT identifies five key principles of adaptation policy: Intergovernmental collaboration Stakeholder/practitioner engagement Assessment of current and future risk (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity Act strategically (+ emissions) Mainstream

16 Example Policy Recommendation 2009 ACT report: Climate Change Adaptation & Extreme Weather (Authors: Gordon McBean and Dan Henstra) Recommendation #3: Provincial and local governments should incorporate climate adaptation principles into infrastructure design and land-use planning decisions in order to reduce exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather events. Local governments should assess both their current vulnerability to extreme weather events and the risks posed by climate change, including sea level rise, and should develop an adaptation strategy, using risk management as a framework to prioritize actions targeted at climate-related risks.

17 Examples of Adaptation: Local Government The Impact of Climate Change in Delta, BC: Increased precipitation and more extreme weather events Increased vulnerability to flooding. Overall loss of biodiversity as invasive plants and animals replace native species. Threats to Delta's dike system and salinization of valuable farm land from rising sea levels. Climate change Initiatives: Developed a unique and progressive Climate Change Initiative that has two main goals: 1) To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from municipal buildings, fleet vehicles and operations. 2) To adapt municipal infrastructure and emergency plans to ensure community is well prepared for and protected. Includes: Flood Management Plan, Urban Forestry Plan, Building Efficiency Plan, Infrastructure Plan and more. Climate Adaptation Project: One of three communities to participate in a unique pilot project with ICLEI Canada (International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives) and Natural Resources Canada to assess vulnerability to climate change, plan to protect the community and prepare a toolkit for adaptation.

18 Educating Delta Government/Public: AMSD

19 Examples of Adaptation: Local GovernmentS The Impact of Climate Change in the Columbia Basin: Warmer winters and drier summers Lower summer stream flows Loss of glaciers and rising snowlines More extreme weather events including wildfire and flooding CBT: Coalition of local governments through a financial trust Climate change Initiatives: The Communities Adapting to Climate Change initiative supports communities of the Columbia Basin to increase their adaptive capacity and resiliency to climate change impacts at a community level. The initiative is spearheaded by CBT and supported by advisors from academic, First Nations, governmental institutions, and community development practitioners. Phase 1 ( ) included two pilot communities, Kimberley and the District of Elkford, a learning network and an advisory committee. Phase 2 ( ) includes three new communities: Rossland, Castlegar and Kaslo (in partnership with the Regional District of Central Kootenay), in addition to the learning network and an advisory committee. The communities prioritized actions based on the vulnerabilities identified. The results of this process were used to create climate change adaptation action plans. Kimberley s Priority Planning Areas included Water and Forests, Municipal Infrastructure, and Tourism. Elkford s Priority Planning Areas included: Wildfire, Flooding and Water Availability

20 Examples of Adaptation: Regional Water Board Okanagan Basin Water Board: Taxpayer funded Think like a watershed Participatory Integrated Assessment of Water Management and Climate Change in the Okanagan Basin: A pilot in the Okanagan utilizing workshops, dialogue and a decision-support software tool called STELLA. Major components of the pilot included: Residential water demand (developing future demand scenarios for residential users, factoring in population growth and adaptation options); Adaptation costs (expanding the inventory of various supply and demand management measures and incorporating water treatment costs); Decision-support model (building a system model, using a group-based process with local experts, which enables learning on impacts of climate and population changes, and the effects of implementation of various adaptation measures); Adaptation policy (residential design: bringing climate change into community design through Smart Growth on the Ground s process for creating a water-smart community plan in the Town of Oliver and surrounding area; agricultural water use: exploring growers views on regional water policy). Participatory processes can help to create dialogues that link and mutually instruct researchers, practitioners, communities and governments Knowledge about climate-change adaptation and sustainable development can be translated into public policy through processes that generate usable knowledge. IPCC

21 Examples of Adaptation: BC Government The B.C. government is building capacity for climate change adaptation: $94.5million endowment to establish the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) to assess, develop and promote viable emission reduction and adaptation options and to better inform climate change policies and actions Ongoing support to the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) to produce provincially-relevant information about past/future climate change and impacts Enhancing provincial weather and hydrometric observation networks to improve climate change monitoring The B.C. government is also "mainstreaming" adaptation into its programs, policies, and other decisions with: Living Water Smart Adapting to Climate Change in Forest Management Conservation Framework Mountain Pine Beetle Action Plan The B.C. government is working with other governments: Western Premier's Conference The thirteen provincial and territorial Premiers are working together through the Council of the Federation to prepare for climate change, with an emphasis on forests and water.

22 UK Climate Change Impact Example United Kingdom: Flooding 10% of the UK - equivalent to two million homes - is in danger of flooding. Insurers may become hesitant to renew home insurance policies. (DEFRA - now DECC) 2007 was the UK s wettest summer since records began in Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and the Midlands had torrential rainfall in June, affecting 1000s of homes. In July; extensive areas were flooded after rivers burst their banks in 4 more counties. Nine lives were lost, over 350,000 people lost access to clean water and many lost their homes, possessions and businesses.

23 International Adaptation Initiative United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) UKCIP helps stakeholders to plan their own adaptation strategies and helps organisations to make decisions on adapting to climate change: Provides tools, including scenarios that show how the UK climate might change at a regional and national level. Funded by national government Offers advice and help, and supports the research process. Takes a stakeholder-led approach to adaptation, basing work on users requests.

24 Canadian Federal Response to Date

25 Example Policy Recommendation Climate Change Adaptation & Extreme Weather (Authors: Gordon McBean and Dan Henstra) Recommendation #1: The Government of Canada should take the lead in addressing the risk of extreme weather associated with climate change by establishing a permanent scientific and technical working group with provincial participation and a mandate to: 1.1 Share information and coordinate adaptation policies and programs. 1.2 Promote dialogue between government and private-sector infrastructure providers to identify effective and efficient adaptation measures for existing infrastructure, including the risk of more frequent and intense extreme weather events. 1.3 Partner with professional associations to mainstream adaptation principles into the work of practitioners. 1.4 Examine the role of insurance in climate adaptation for extreme weather events, and map out solutions to the challenges insurers face in developing products to support climate adaptation. 1.5 Incorporate climate adaptation into the National Disaster Mitigation Strategy and federal and provincial environmental assessment processes. 1.6 Explore ways in which the principles of climate adaptation can be incorporated into codes and standards to build resilience to future risks.

26 Conclusion Adaptation planning is essential to bolster the resilience of communities, key resource sectors, and critical infrastructure. Policy is a useful tool that should be encouraged. Such planning can stimulate economies while offering the side benefits of knowledge transfer and leading by example. Knowledge already exists regionally and worldwide to help us move quickly towards smart adaptation. All orders of government must work together with stakeholders and practitioners to achieve coordinated, sustainable results. If they don t see the need now, they soon will Invest now: save money, time, and maybe lives, later on.

27 ACT Adaptation to Climate Change Team For more information about ACT, our policy reports, and adaptation resources, please go to: ACT thanks past and present partners: Wilburforce Foundation, Bullitt Foundation, Zurich Canada, BC Ministry of Environment, AMEC Engineering, BC Hydro, Plutonic Power, INAC, Environment Canada, Real Estate Foundation BC.