Commercial Property Insurance & Modelling and Pricing of Commercial Property

Transcription

1 Commercial Property Insurance & Modelling and Pricing of Commercial Property Insurance A.Sertem Demir Commercial and Corporate Lines Underwriting Coordinator Zurich Sigorta

2 Huge potential to grow in Emerging Markets Turkey will be catching up the European countries... Projected GDP in USD bn Projected GDP per capita in USD TUR TUR TUR IND IND IND IND IND IND CHN CHN CHN BRA BRA BRA TUR TUR TUR RUS RUS RUS BRA BRA BRA GBR GBR GBR RUS RUS RUS GER GER GER JAP JAP JAP JAP JAP JAP GER GER GER CHN CHN CHN GBR GBR GBR USA USA USA USA USA USA Source: Goldman Sachs

3 Turkish Property Market 2011 Technical profitability over years (technical profit/ GWP) ,09% ,81% ,79% ,41% Source: Turkish Insurance and Reinsurance Companies Assocation

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5 Standardization of Occupancies/ Activities Standardization of occupancy/ activity codes: Is Good for communicating the technical issues Enables better portfolio analysis Makes possible to use simplified basic rate or mixed base rate usage Guarantee improved data quality for the future Two available options: SIC or NAICS (charge of free) Could be imported through:

6 Basic Risk Premium Basic Risk Premium: Sum Insured * Base Rate Base rate is based on: Ground up, full limits (SI) Pure loss cost + Allocated loss adjustment expenses Average risk assumption No political exposure and the location is of an equivalent to a location in WE Distinct rates by peril: FLEXA, AOP, Wind, Earthquake & Flood Flexa rates are split by industry groups (SIC or NAICS) And is unique and dynamic for all perils, occupancies/ activities, companies and portfolios!

7 Modifiers and Manual Underwriting Adjustments Modifier: is an adjustment which is determined by an objective measurement e.g. Favorable risk engineering score, sprinkler protection, building construction etc. Manual Underwriting Adjustment: is a deliberate adjustment made by underwriter to reflect features that are not taken into account in modifiers.**

8 Components of Pricing Property Business Turkish market uses the following pricing components: 1. FLEXA 2. All other perils 3. Earthquake 4. SRCCMA and terrorism At Zurich we use the following components: 1. FLEXA 2. Windstorm 3. Flood 4. AOP 5. Earthquake

9 FLEXA Pricing Flexa rates are split by industry groups (SIC or NAICS) Each location or fire area should be priced separately based on SIC/NAICS of the most exposed occupancy/ activity, if this activity unless this activity is less than: 10% of the values or area occupied, or less than 25% if the most exposed occupancy/ activity is a warehouse İn which h case the SIC/NAICS of the lower exposed occupancy/ activity ii can be used.

10 FLEXA Pricing Mixed base rate: If the location or fire area is a mixture of different occupancies/ activities and one SIC/NAICS does not properly reflect the exposure.. Should be avoided to be used for: Food industry, pulp and paper manufacturing, chemical and pharmaceutical industry and primary metal For BI, the highest base rate should be used unless we have no bottlenecks and İnterdependencies and good physical separation.. Offices should not be part of blended rate, unless office sum insured exceeds 30% of the TSI

11 FLEXA Pricing Modifiers for FLEXA Underwriting: 1. Risk quality 2. Loss history 3. PML or EML 4. Limitations/ modifications in the basic cover 5. Deductibles Loadings: 1. Company general expenses 2. Facultative costs 3. Brokerage

12 EARTHQUAKE Pricing Pricing in Turkish market: A tariff imposed by ministry of treasury Tariff prices EQ depending on the following parameters: 1. Location exposure (Munich Re zoning is used) 2. Type of building 3. Deductible

13 EARTHQUAKE Pricing Basic rates of Treasury tariff for standart deductible, concrete building vs. Zurich blank rating: Tariff Pricing Zurich Pricing Munich Re Zone 0 0,29 %0 (per mille) 0,00 %0 Munich Re Zone 1 0,41 %0 (per mille) 0,00 %0 Munich Re Zone 2 0,76%0 (per mille) 0,35 %0 Munich Re Zone 3 1,46%0 (per mille) 1,10 %0 Munich Re Zone 4 2,12%0 (per mille) 2,40 %0

14 EARTHQUAKE Pricing What we use at Zurich to come up with as if technical pricing and challenge tariff 1. RMS location data is used to price in a more granular way 2. Building age is taken into consideration 3. Type of construction list is extended 4. Number of storeys taken into consideration 5. Existence of soft storey is questioned and priced RMS relativities i i are used to price all these new parameters.

15 EARTHQUAKE Pricing

16 AOP Pricing AOP is defined in the Turkish market as: Flood, internal water damage, vehicle impact, Smoke, snow weight, hail, storm, landslide. At Zurich we have one base rate on all occupancies depending on the sum insured of the location. The following variables should be priced differently for AOP on top of the basic risk premium to come up with real technical pricing: Occupancy, exposure, locations, protection and prevention measures

17 Flood Pricing Best availabletool is Swiss Re CatNet Best availabletool is Swiss Re CatNet Value distribution per sp km is available once we load our policy data Depending on the flood return period assumption a basic risk premium can be obtained.

18 Definition of TAZ and TAR Terrorism Accumulation Zone (TAZ): TAZ is a geographic boundary within a high profile city. i.e. oneor morepostal tl codes TAZ requires careful management of terrorism exposure accumulation. i.e. data completeness and accuracy Terrorism Accumulation Region (TAR): TAR is a geographic boundary within a TAZ. i.e. separated by well established streets and highways

19 Purpose of TAZ and TAR For modeling: dli Improvement in analytical efficiency Variable Resolution Grid and Simple Damage Footprint analyses are performed for targets in TAZs (and TARs) more information in the Appendix A and B Spider analysis is performed to find exposure concentrations outside TAZs (and TARs) more information in the Appendix C All exposure must be captured regardless of TAZ boundaries for model accuracy. For example, without capturing green dot locations, the modeled loss will be underestimated ZRP compliance Underwriting guidelines (referrals, data standards) Ease of communication.... TAZ

20 Istanbul, Turkey Yellow boundary includes most mahalles in Besiktas (Beþiktaþ), Beyoglu (Beyoðlu), and Fatih (Fatih) It includes most of Zurich s exposure, loss potential, and RMS targets TAZ District Insured > 50M loss estimate 1 RMS target (v.11) Target circle 2 Top 5 loss estimates 3 1 Per occurrence meter radius 3 Variable Resolution Grid

21 Istanbul, Turkey Yellow boundary includes most mahalles in Besiktas (Beþiktaþ), Beyoglu (Beyoðlu), and Fatih (Fatih) It includes many mahalles with high annual average losses TAZ District Target circle 2 Top 5 loss estimates 3 1 Per occurrence meter radius 3 Variable Resolution Grid

22 Simple Footprint Analysis Simple Damage Footprints t areprecompiled, generic circular hazard footprints t for each main attack mode. Hazard values are represented as concentric rings around the footprint centroid. These values are compiled at various distances, and linear interpolation is used to calculate hazard values between ring radii. Figure 1 highlights the hazard values by ring for a 2 ton bomb Simple Damage Footprint. Figure 1

23 VRG Analysis VRG (Variable Resolution Grid) analysis is similar il to Simple Damage Footprint t analysis. Instead of using the concentric circles, VRG uses pre compiled hazard values at each variable resolution grid. Sizes range from 50m 2 to 50km 2 VRG analysis uses a blast wave methodology, which considers local building density (shielding effects), and considers building characteristics and wind direction & speed Therefore, while Simple Damage Footprints are always circular shapes, VRG shapes vary by attack mode and other factors

24 Spider Analysis In Spider analysis, an attack mode is simulated at each of the locations within the portfolio and identifies the location that would generate the highest amount of loss Spider analysis does not include the effects of shielding, although it does consider primary characteristics, such as construction and building height. They do however include the reducing damage % as the radius of the blast increases However, the concentration may not bare a high risk of terrorism attack. We must consider attractiveness and likelihood of an attack at high exposure concentrations. i.e. Their symbolic value and their potential for economic and human loss If the exposure concentration is believe to be attractive to terrorists, Simple Damage Footprint analysis is performed at the concentration location

25 I Segmentation Standardized occupancies Account J Account F Account H Account B Account C Account I Account A Account G Account D Account E Filter Loss/premium ratio per policy/ occupancy II Analysis of portfolios and reallocation of accounts to loss/premium ratio Account F Account D Account A Account B Account E III Decision making process on the threshold to allocate segments IV Define the Retention and GWP targets for each segment based on agreed overall strategy and rebalance rebalance of segments V Performance reporting and continuous improvement

26 GEOCODING GEOCODING Converting the standart address data into longtitute and latitude BENEFITS of GEOCODING Standardisation/ improvement of address information for CRM and mailing costs. Better accumulation control for EQ, flood and terrorism risks for better management of CAT Treaty and improvement of underwriting decision making process. OTHER SOLUTIONS Using google fusion tables. 26