Advertising effectiveness

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1 Advertising effectiveness Budget Battles Proving our Worth Thursday, 25 June 2015

2 Agenda Advertising effectiveness over the business cycle Measuring digital and traditional media effectiveness Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential.

3 Advertising trends UK GDP and advertising spend 140 GDP (100=2000) Ad Spend (100 = 2000) Lameyet al 2007 found that the elasticity of ad spend with regards to GDP is 1.4% in a study that used data over 25 years ( ) across 37 countries Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Source: Nielsen, ONS Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential.

4 Advertising trends UK Advertising spend over the recent recession across sectors Ad spend in the financial sector experienced the biggest decline in the recent economic recession Durables, Industrial and Consumables sector also decreased their ad spend Retail and service expenditure remained relatively stable Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 CONSUMABLES DURABLES FINANCIAL GOVERNMENT INDUSTRIAL RETAIL SERVICES Source: Nielsen Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential.

5 Advertising during economic downturn Pros & Cons Cons Effectiveness decreases when the market shrinks Uncertainty over expected ROI and future cash flows Resources could be better allocated especially if business is going through financial difficulties Pros ROI can still be positive especially if competitors decrease spend Increase market share Exit recession stronger Cost of advertising is lower Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential.

6 Advertising effectiveness over the business cycle Does the effectiveness of advertising vary across the business cycle? Study Published Sample Approach Results Kamber (2002) Journal of Brand Management 822 US; Split-sample - Regression analysis - The group of companies that maintained or increased their adspend during the recession had 7% annual growth in sales in 1991 compared to no growth for those that cut back advertising. The gap in sales growth between the two groups widened to 25% by Sales uplift during the recession was as strong as during the years following the recession Frankenberger & Graham (2003) Mark eting Science Institute 2662 US firms; Regression analysis Advertising ROI is greater during downturns for consumer products and B2B but not for services Malik PIMS (2008) IPA conference (2008) 1000 business units from developed countries Split sample approach - Businesses that increased spend during the recession experienced a mild decline in profitability - Cutting marketing expenditure is associated with lower profitability and market share post-downturn Gijsenberg et al. (2013) Journal of Mark eting Research 163 UK CPG brands categories; Regression analysis/bayesian techniques - Short-run advertsing effectiveness reduces in downturns - Long-run impact of marketing remains constant over the business cycle - Price sensitivity increases during contractions Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential.

7 Summary Existing literature challenges conventional wisdom marketing investment can pay off in both good and bad economic times A common theme that emerges from previous studies is that businesses that maintain or increase marketing spend during downturns experience significant growth post-downturn Results can be driven by three factors: Most efficient use of resources during downturns Increased share-of-voice ROI might be compensation for greater risk However, the results should be interpreted with caution given the limited number of studies Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential.

8 Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited ( DTTL ), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

9 Multi-channel attribution Budget Battles Proving our Worth Thursday, 25 June 2015

10 Cons Pros Standard attribution methods 1. Digital attribution methods such as Google Analytics and Adometry 2. Traditional Marketing Mix Modelling (MMM) techniques where aggregate enquiries or conversions are modelled as a function of media variables and other control factors Traditional MMM Provides a holistic view on both online and offline media Powerful when there is data variability Accounts for lag effects Measures the attribution on both online and offline KPIs (i.e. call enquiries) Easy to implement Automated Digital attribution Based on simple rules (i.e. last click, first click) - easy to understand Based on observed customer behaviour Difficult to capture complex, multi-channel interactions Data intensive Requires data variability to isolate the impacts of all factors included in the model Difficult to fully capture the interactions between marketing channels multichannel attribution is based on simple or arbitrary rules Lack of visibility of all touch points if multiple devices are used Measures only online channels Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential.

11 Number of Conversions from last click or other attribution rule Combining digital attribution models with MMM The approach is based on a combination of digital attribution models and econometrics: Total conversions are split across digital channels as measured by an attribution rule (i.e. last click) For each digital channel, an econometrics model is estimated accounting for both direct and multichannel effects Conversion by channels Media Control factors Paid Search Paid Search cost Banner cost volume TV/Press/Radio Seasonality Banner Paid Search cost Banner cost volume TV/Press/Radio Website changes Paid Search cost Banner cost volume TV/Press/Radio Economic activities Direct Paid Search cost Banner costs volume TV/Press/Radio Organic Search Paid Search cost Banner cost volume TV/Press/Radio Industry factors: e.g. new car registrations Other (i.e. media partners) Paid Search cost Banner cost volume TV/Press/Radio Other 3 Direct effects Digital multichannel interaction effects Offline multichannel interaction effects 2014 Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential.

12 Conversions / sales/ revenue Conversions / sales / revenue ROIs Decomposition 1 Decompose each channel s conversions 3 Estimate ROIs Organic search conversions Paid Search conversions Banner Radio Banner Radio Paid Search TV Paid Search TV Paid Search Banner TV Radio Other 4 Compare model attribution with digital attribution 2 Calculate total attribution by channel Paid Search Banner TV Radio Other 4 Paid Search Banner TV Radio Other Hybrid First Click Last Click

13 Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited ( DTTL ), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

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