Global Metals Outlook

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1 Global Metals Outlook

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3 About the survey This Global Metals Outlook is part of KPMG s 2013 Global Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Data was collected by the Economist Intelligence Unit in November 2012 and accompanying analysis and commentary, which is based on both survey results and the experience of KPMG member firm professionals work with clients, was provided by senior KPMG metals sector leaders from across KPMG s global network of Metals practices. A total of 335 senior manufacturing executives participated in the survey, of which 18 percent came from the metals sector. The views reflected in this Global Metals Outlook include those from 59 industry participants with revenues of more than US$500 million, 15 percent of which reported earning revenues of US$5 billion or more. Forty-seven percent of the metals respondents identified themselves as being based in Asia-Pacific, 27 percent in North America and 20 percent in Western Europe. Almost two-thirds (63 percent) of all metals respondents held C-Level positions within their respective organizations, with a further 35 percent representing SVP/VP/Director or Head of department roles. iii

4 Foreword All things considered, 2013 will likely be remembered as a year of foundational change for the metals sector. Restructuring and cost cutting will likely continue in the slow growth markets of Europe; investment should continue to pick up in the high growth markets in Asia, Latin America and Africa; and consolidation will inevitably continue, particularly in China where significant room still remains for the industry to modernize. As this Global Metals Outlook clearly demonstrates, metals companies are keenly exploring new opportunities for cost cutting. In some markets particularly those where overcapacity is perceived to be more structural in nature there will likely be a further restructuring of assets. At the same time, continued restrictions on available capital and a temporary drop in resource prices around the world have also catalyzed metals organizations to focus their attention on the optimization of their existing assets rather than the acquisition of new ones. The supply chain has also come sharply into focus for metals companies. Over the past year, I have noted a move by many organizations to reduce downstream costs and capture some of the value lost to intermediaries by rethinking their distribution and customer service offerings. On the upstream side, there will likely be an uptick in the pace of partnering and joint ventures as metals organizations look to secure the cost benefits of vertical integration without outlaying massive amounts of capital or shouldering too much risk. This Global Metals Outlook examines the current trends and emerging business opportunities for the metals sector going forward. The findings, based on the responses of almost 60 industry players, paint a picture of an industry in transition where the winners of the future will likely be the ones making radical changes to their business models today. To discuss these or any other issues currently facing your metals organization I encourage you to contact your local KPMG member firm or one of the contacts listed at the back of this publication. Eric Damotte KPMG s Global Head of Metals iv

5 Contents Low growth expectations drive cost reduction Focus on enhancing supply chain visibility Shifting markets create new opportunities Conclusion How KPMG can help

6 Low growth expectations drive cost reduction Metals sector facing two distinct challenges going forward: pressure on prices and uncertain demand With the outlook for the metals markets tied closely to the strength of the global economy, it is not surprising that metals sector respondents are somewhat tempered in their expectations for growth. Indeed, metals respondents were almost 10 percent less likely to expect positive growth for the global economy over the next 2 years than the wider survey average (62 percent of global manufacturers anticipated growth versus 53 percent for metals). At the same time, more than a third of respondents from the metals sector said they were facing two distinct challenges going forward: pressure on prices and uncertain demand. As a result, most metals organizations (61 percent) said they were now looking to further reduce their cost structure as a top strategic priority over the next 2 years. Interestingly, less than a quarter of metals respondents said they would seek to cut back and/or delay planned investments and 41 percent said they were considering acquiring suppliers in order to stabilize their input costs both good signs for the future health of the Metals companies anticipate slow economic growth 45% 40% 35% 36% 41% 30% 25% 22% 24% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 11% 12% 10% 8% 5% 0% 4% 2% Over 3% growth 2-3% growth 0.1 to 1.9% growth No growth % reduction 1-2% reduction 2% 2% Over 2% reduction All manufacturers Metals companies Q: What is your outlook for the global economy over the next 12 to 24 months? Source: Economist Intelligence Survey, Nov Global Metals Outlook

7 sector but more than a third indicated that labor cuts may also be needed over the next 2 years. For the most part, however, planned cost-control measures in the metals sector seem focused on creating more streamlined operations with a greater concentration on core products and operations. More than a third of metals respondents said they would exit unprofitable or non-core product lines while slightly more indicated similar intentions for unprofitable or non-core business units. More importantly, perhaps, is the fact that 41 percent of metals respondents also indicated an intention to share functions or even facilities with other organizations. While the industry is currently experiencing somewhat of a low-cycle made all the more difficult by uncertain demand, shifting market dynamics, and tight financing environments there are clear indications that today s consolidation and cost-reduction exercises will lead to a stronger and more resilient sector in the future, noted Eric Damotte, KPMG s Global Head of Metals. A range of cost cutting priorities 45% 40% 35% 41% 37% 41% 39% 40% 36% 41% 38% 41% 37% 30% 25% 27% 24% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Exiting unprofitable or non-core product lines Exiting unprofitable or non-core business units Reducing labor force/costs Sharing functions and/or facilities with other organizations Acquiring suppliers to stabilize input costs Cutting back and/or delaying planned investments All manufacturers Metals companies Q: What are the priority areas of cost-control that you will pursue over the next 12 to 24 months? Multiple responses were allowed. Source: Economist Intelligence Survey, Nov Global Metals Outlook 3

8 KPMG Insight Rama Ayman Global Head of Metals & Mining Corporate Finance Slow but steady: mergers and partnerships in the metals sector While the consolidation in the steel industry was a major driver of metals deal activity, the M&A market has been somewhat slow since the start of In part, this is because steel organizations are, as this report notes, preoccupied with cost optimization, the reduction of overcapacity and necessary asset portfolio management decisions. Steel companies are also suffering from low margins driven by weak demand and are, generally speaking, over-leveraged, meaning there is little cash flow available for acquisitions. And while private equity funds and trading houses may be re-entering the steel sector, they will likely continue to be selective buyers. With the very notable exception of China, consolidation among integrated steel companies in all regions of the world has largely come to an end. Indeed, due to growing scrutiny from anti-trust regulators, we believe that the Nippon Steel-Sunitomo Metal merger in was likely among the last we will see in the medium-term outside of China. That being said, there will likely be some smaller transactions in the market over the next few years driven by the following trends: Consolidation in niche areas: fragmentation in several niche sectors creates opportunities for consolidation in certain countries Non-core asset sales: reduced cash flows may trigger breaches of debt covenants, leading companies to consider the sale of non-core assets M&A in the metals sector (YTD) M&A Deal value US$billion YTD Number of M&A deals <$100m $101m - $500m $501m - $1bn >$1bn # of deals Source: mergermarket (as at 28 May 2013), KPMG Analysis 1 4 Global Metals Outlook

9 Strategic fund raising: given the limited cash availability and difficult public market conditions, steel companies may look to partner with strategic and financial partners to develop large projects Industry restructuring: as we saw with the Outokumpu-Inoxum deal, 2 steel companies may divest a business or joint venture it with a competitor to enhance the equity story Share swaps and strategic alliances: several steel companies may enter into minority share ownerships in other steel companies for strategic reasons Vertical integration: while funding constraints will likely dampen the pace, some steel companies may look to continue the vertical integration started during the period Government intervention: governments in resource-rich countries will likely continue to force iron ore and coking companies to go downstream rather than exporting, which would create joint venture opportunities for steel companies operating in those markets Geographic diversification: select steel companies will likely consider expanding into higher growth regions of the world, including South East Asia. In other metals, such as copper and aluminum smelting and refining, companies may continue to search for investments in raw materials to better manage price volatility and achieve security of supply in the face of growing resource nationalism. Share of the top 20 steel companies, ,600 1,547 Million Metric Tons 1, } % % 31% % } } } Top 20 Source: World Steel Association 2013 Other 2 Global Metals Outlook 5

10 KPMG Insight Roy Hinkamper Global Met Coal Commodity Leader Operational Trends With the impact of the global economy, and the volatility in commodities, metals and mining companies continue to look at ways to improve operations along a number of different work streams, with the focus on value improvement and cost optimization. One of the key focus areas where companies have shifted their focus is to evaluate the asset management processes at their operations. Leading companies have shifted from looking at maximum utilization (focused on production results) to looking at production in light of current and long-term costs. Bringing into consideration scheduling, repairs, maintenance, etc. asset lives are viewed as key for managing margins as well as achieving desired production results. An additional consideration is the focus on energy within the sector. With prices of energy commodities shifting with the supplies of traditional sources, and the societal desire for newer energy sources, metals and mining companies have followed suit in reevaluating their energy policies. Considerations go beyond cost and availability to include the company s social license to operate, stability of existing and future energy sources, as well as potential regulatory initiatives in various countries. Each of these factors impacts the traditional practices, and can result in net benefits if managed effectively. Ultimately, these factors, as well as others, are challenging the traditional production efficiency views within operations, and leading to alternative approaches to manage the operations with a holistic approach that focuses on long-term value, rather than a particular production number or efficiencies derived from cost accounting measurements. 6 Global Metals Outlook

11 Global Metals Outlook 7

12 Focus on enhancing supply chain visibility Metals organizations struggle to enhance their supply chain visibility As metals organizations tighten their supply chains to reduce costs and eliminate stockpiles, there has been a growing focus on improving supply chain operations and efficiency. Yet while many (41 percent) say that ensuring supplier performance in terms of risk, reliability, and quality is their top supply chain challenge, few seem to have achieved the level of visibility required to truly improve operations (an operational priority for almost 60 percent of metals respondents). More than half of all metals respondents admitted that they had either no visibility or limited Tier 1 supplier visibility, while just 15 percent boasted complete visibility into their Tier 2s and beyond. In part, this may be due to a lack of IT systems to adequately support supply chain visibility, planning, and execution, a challenge cited by 15 percent of respondents. One in five said that they lacked information and material visibility across their extended supply chain. 8 Global Metals Outlook

13 Metals companies lack supplier visibility 49% 7% 24% 15% No visibility Little to no Tier 1 supplier visibility Some visibility Limited Tier 1 supplier visibility, but not Tier 2 and beyond Enhanced visibility Tier 1 supplier visibility and some Tier 2 supplier visibility Complete visibility Tier 1, 2, and beyond suppliers visibility Q: How much visibility of supply and capacity information do you have across your suppliers and logistics partners? Source: Economist Intelligence Survey, Nov Given that 64 percent of metals respondents said that , fax, and mail are still the most prevalent method for sharing information within the sector (versus just 44 percent across all industries), it is hardly surprising that metals organizations struggle to enhance their supply chain visibility. Only 15 percent said they use collaborative supply chain software, while a slightly larger number reported using web-based partner portals (20 percent) and traditional B2B/EDI networks (37 percent). Unfortunately, the current lack of visibility is impacting metals organizations ability to respond and recover to sudden supply chain disruptions. So while slightly more than a third of metals respondents indicated that they could assess the impact of an unplanned supply chain disruption in less than a week, an almost equal number said it would take up to 2 weeks. Astonishingly, 15 percent of metals organizations admitted that they had no capacity for assessing the impact of an unplanned disruption at all. Global Metals Outlook 9

14 Clearly, metals organizations will need to make supply chain visibility and collaboration a top priority if they want to offer their customers a secure supply of product while eliminating unwanted down-time at facilities, added Eric Damotte. This will require metals organizations to both invest in technology and renew their focus on supplier relationship management techniques if they hope to create a more collaborative, transparent, and responsive supply chain. Disruptions may lead to lengthy delays 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 36% 27% 25% 31% 15% 10% 5% 9% 9% 13% 10% 5% 7% 11% 15% 3% 2% 0% In a matter of hours 1-6 days 1-2 weeks 3-4 weeks 1 month or longer We can't systematically assess the impact of unplanned events Don't know All manufacturers Metals companies Q: How quickly can your organization assess the impact of an unplanned supply chain disruption (e.g., natural disaster, supplier facility shut down, civil unrest, etc.)? Source: Economist Intelligence Survey, Nov Global Metals Outlook

15 KPMG Insight Frank Kang Managing Director, Advisory KPMG in the US Supply chain optimization enabled by demand-driven operations As metals organizations look to become leaner and more cost efficient, a growing number are starting to move towards demanddriven supply chains where all planning, purchasing, production, and replenishment are aligned to true demand at the closest point of consumption. The benefits of such a strategy in the metals sector can be significant and span areas such as improvement in inventory performance, demand forecast accuracy, and capacity utilization. With two-thirds of metals respondents saying that they still rely on forecast demand for at least part of their manufacturing, purchasing, and replenishment decisions, it is clear that more can be done within the sector to establish true demand multi-tier visibility and eliminate information latency across the supply chain. This visibility can enable firms to establish greater capabilities in demand collaboration and demand shaping with customers. In turn, this can help the metals sector to mitigate one of their key challenges: predicting and managing demand uncertainty. Improved visibility can also drive greater efficiencies by synchronizing supply with true demand while achieving capacity utilization requirements. Metals organizations will therefore need to shift their thinking away from traditional supply chains and towards the concept of highly integrated supply networks where multiple tiers of companies are working off the same shared view of true demand and total available supply with common processes and metrics. This new network operating strategy can bring greater collaborative planning and drive a more agile supply chain that can effectively react to business environment shifts such as market over-supply. The promise of integrated value chain networks have already been realized in other industries. Advances in information technology have improved the visibility and collaborative planning capabilities between multi-tier partners. The best-designed demand-driven networks seem to be those developed in collaboration with key suppliers and customers and rolled out through an iterative approach with continuous process improvement measured against a shared benefits model. Metals firms working towards becoming more demand-driven will need to initially focus on developing the correct operating model that should include not only multitier visibility and collaboration but also the proper design of operational governance and accountability, integrated business processes, performance metrics, and advanced analytics. Global Metals Outlook 11

16 Shifting markets create new opportunities China is a top destination for the production of goods that require significant IP The slowdown in economic activity in the mature markets particularly the Eurozone coupled with new trends in customer demands is creating new challenges and opportunities for today s metals organizations. Much of today s economic turmoil is reflected in the metals sector growth expectations: approximately one-third of respondents expect China and Japan to account for the majority of their sales growth over the next 2 years. And while the US continues to be the top market for growth expectations, it is worth noting the rise of the emerging markets; India already ties the UK as the fourth most likely growth market, and outpaces some of the more mature markets like Germany where only 9 percent of respondents said they expected to see the majority of their sales growth. At the same time, our survey shows that the emerging markets are growing in importance as a source of raw materials. Almost a quarter said they would increase their sourcing from China, while one in ten said they would increase sourcing from India. And while this likely reflects growth in local demand more than international demand, it does indicate a continuing shift in the market towards Asia nd other high growth economies. Interestingly, almost 30 percent said they would grow their supply chain in Japan, suggesting that the sourcing of manufactured supply elements is also shifting east. Growth expectations shift to emerging markets 40% 35% 30% 34% 32% 31% 25% 20% 15% 14% 14% 10% 9% 5% 0% US Japan China India UK Germany Q: Which countries do you expect to account for the majority of your sales growth in the next 12 to 24 months? Source: Economist Intelligence Survey, Nov Global Metals Outlook

17 R&D investment set to rise for metals companies 90% 80% 76% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 52% 60% 46% 39% 30% 43% 20% 10% 15% 0% 0-3% Greater than 4% Metals last 2 years Metals next 2 years Other manufacturers last 2 years Other manufacturers next 2 years Q: In your best estimate, what percent of revenue did your company spend in the last 2 years on R&D/Innovation? What percent of revenue does it plan to spend over the next 2 years? "Don't know" responses were not shown for de minimis reasons. Source: Economist Intelligence Survey, Nov Given that China makes up almost 45 percent of all global metals demand, it is not surprising that many metals organizations expect to conduct much of their manufacturing processes in China. What is surprising perhaps is that China ranked above the UK and Germany and only slightly below India as a top destination for the production of those goods that require significant IP. With some market analysts suggesting that China may now be struggling with a slowing economy and overcapacity in the metals sector, there is an expectation that China s share of the global manufacturing process may slowly level out and eventually decline as the country s relative economic balance shifts from manufacturing to services. At the same time, organizations around the world are starting to demand evermore sophisticated products such as lightweight materials, environmentally friendly manufacturing processes, and lower-cost products. And while our survey shows that the sector has historically been underinvesting in both breakthrough research and the enhancement of existing product lines as compared to other manufacturers, our survey s metals respondents suggest that spending will increase in the next 2 years: whereas only 15 percent of respondents report spending greater than 4 percent of revenue on R&D in the last 2 years, that number is expected to rise to 39 percent of respondents over the next 2 years. However, this still reflects slightly lower levels of investment than that found in the manufacturing sector overall where 43 percent say they will spend more than 4 percent of revenue on R&D over the next 2 years. Shifting market demands and evolving customer expectations are placing renewed pressure onto metals organizations to rethink their core markets and R&D strategies in order to meet future demand in growth markets and product lines, added Eric Damotte. In many cases, metals organizations will find that the most cost-effective and lowest-risk approach to new market entry lies in creating partnerships or joint ventures with existing market players. Global Metals Outlook 13

18 Conclusion Clearly, this is a time of significant change and opportunity for the metals sector. Some will take advantage of the cost-reduction opportunities and the shift to new markets and products to create a competitive advantage and, in doing so, create a position of strength in an otherwise turbulent market. But getting there will not be easy. Based on both the survey data and the experience of KPMG s metals sector executives, metals organizations must move quickly to achieve four key objectives: Create a cost advantage: Metals executives will likely need to shift their focus away from short-term cost-cutting exercises to instead focus on creating a sustainable cost culture that manages costs in both low and high cycles. Improve visibility into the supply chain: Shifting market demands and continuing cost pressures should force metals organizations to improve their supply chain operations through greater collaboration and integration within the supply network. Focus on new markets and products: As demand shifts to the emerging markets and new products gain popularity, metals executives will likely want to vigilantly watch the market trends and adjust their market strategy accordingly. Create new partnerships and collaborations: Whether entering into new markets, developing new products, or sharing core functions across multiple organizations, the development and maintenance of strong partnerships will be critical. Looking ahead, it seems clear that strength will likely slowly return to global metals markets over the next few years. And while it will be maintained and led in the short-term by the emerging markets, there are strong signs that Europe and the Americas will see increased demand once the mature economies emerge from their extended slowdown. Metals organizations would be well advised to use that time to become more effective, responsive, and collaborative. 14 Global Metals Outlook

19 How KPMG can help As a leading professional services firm to metals companies, KPMG is committed to helping clients plan for the future. Nearly 600 Global Metals sector partners and professionals provide industry-specific experience and work closely with you to navigate the evolving complexities of global operations and value chains, and unlock value for your organization, customers, and stakeholders. KPMG professionals help metals clients transform challenges into opportunities with cross-functional industry knowledge, open collaboration, and an insightful approach that s tailored to each client s situation and needs. KPMG s Audit, Tax, and Advisory professionals support metals clients with deep technical and industry experience, and provide actionable operational, financial, and regulatory insights that help you cut through complexity. Global Metals Outlook 15

20 Global Metals Leadership: Eric Damotte Global Head of Metals KPMG in Spain Jeff Dobbs Global Sector Chair Diversified Industrials Additional contributors and country leaders: Rama Ayman Global Head of Metals & Mining Corporate Finance Hong Gi Bae Metals Sector Leader KPMG in Korea Anthony Berrange Partner, Audit Africa Head of Metals Biswanath Bhattacharya Director, Metals Sector KPMG in India Stephen Cooper Partner, Metals Sector leader KPMG in the UK Eric Damotte Global Head of Metals KPMG in Spain Jeff Dobbs Global Sector Chair, Diversified Industrials Arne Frogner Partner KPMG in Norway Michael Gewehr Metals & Steel Leader KPMG in Germany Anders Hahnsson Director KPMG in Oy Ab Roy J Hinkamper Global Met Coal Commodity Leader Frank Kang Managing Director Advisory KPMG in the US Charles Krieck Diversified Industrials Country Leader KPMG in Brazil Don Matthew Metals Sector Leader KPMG in Canada Herve Michelet Partner, Audit KPMG in France Hakan Ölekli Diversified Industrials Leader KPMG in Turkey Eduardo Salgado National Industry Leader Mining & Metals KPMG in Mexico Arvind Singhi Head of Strategy and Transaction Services KPMG in Saudi Arabia Alex Shum Head of Diversified Industrials KPMG in China Nick Southon Africa Head of Diversified Industrials KPMG in South Africa Michele Hendricks Global Executive for Diversified Industrials KPMG in the US Martha Collyer Senior Marketing Manager KPMG in Canada kpmg.com/socialmedia The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Designed by Evalueserve. Publication name: Global Metals Outlook Publication number: Publication date: June 2013

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