Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy. July 2015

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy. July 2015"

Transcription

1 Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy July 201

2 1 QBE - Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy Introduction In our latest survey of UK businesses, 22% of respondents reported that their perceptions of trade credit risk had increased. In fact, the difference between those reporting an increase and those reporting a reduction (net balance) leapt from 9% in 2014 to 17% this year. The UK economy, despite many positive indicators, remains fragile. Certainly, 29% of respondents reported consumer or business confidence, and 26% cited current levels of demand, to be the aspects of economic outlook of most concern. In the Eurozone, as Greece continues to dominate the headlines, uncertainty and instability lie ahead. So is this a sign of heightened risk? Our findings suggest that businesses should be concerned about the creditworthiness of their buyers, given some undeniably concerning factors in play: 42% of respondents reported increased risk from competitor activity and market pricing 3% of respondents reported increased risk from volatility and trends in prices of material inputs and goods purchased 21% of respondents reported the lack of visibility of customer orders/revenue. It is early days to be sure if the concerns of our survey respondents herald a rise in business insolvencies, but for the sectors reporting the greatest concerns regarding trade credit risk - Manufacturing & Engineering and Building & Construction - there definitely has been an uptick in business failures of late with some high profile casualties. It may just need a combination of events an increase in interest rates or normalisation of oil prices to historic levels for instance - to tip the balance. Time we suggest for companies to consider whether they are fully protected. Trevor Williams Head of Trade Credit & Surety Europe

3 QBE - Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy 2 Outlook for the UK economy + On the face of it, there is plenty to be positive about the UK economy. GDP is back to pre-crisis levels, the employment rate is at its highest level since the 1970s, inflation is at a record low and investment levels are rising. Growth in business investment is also strengthening, with rising capital expenditure and mergers and acquisitions activity on the rise. Almost six in ten (9%) businesses plan to recruit additional skilled staff in the next 12 months. Economists expect the recovery in the UK economy to be steady and sustained and most predict UK GDP to grow by around 2.% in 201, the strongest growth of the large European economies. But the road to full recovery is not expected to be smooth. Businesses responding to our survey in May 201 perceived a notable increase in the level of overall risk, strategic, market, operational and/or financial, they are experiencing with almost a third (31%) indicating that their operating environment is riskier now than six months prior. This trajectory of risk, synonymous with growing economies, is expected to continue with three in ten businesses anticipating that risk levels will rise in the coming six months. They further cite consumer or business confidence as the aspect of economic outlook which causes them most concern, closely followed by current levels of demand. Factors with the potential to limit UK economic activity include the comparatively low UK productivity levels and burgeoning national debt. For those trading outside the UK, global trade levels have yet to recover and economic outlooks are mixed: Growth in the Eurozone, the UK s largest trading partner, overall is likely to be weak in 201 and 2016, while financial turmoil continues to hinder growth in Southern Europe. As we go to press, no solution to the Greek debt crisis has been found and continues to weigh on uncertainty in the Eurozone. On 30 June Greece became the first ever developed economy not to pay back the International Monetary Fund. The US economy is expected to achieve relatively strong growth in 201 and 2016, while stronger Western economies like Canada and Germany should continue to recover. The outlook for emerging markets is also patchy. While economic growth in China is slowing, it still remains high at around 7%, a rate not enjoyed by the UK since the early 1970s. In contrast, Russia s economy is expected to shrink substantially as the lower oil price and sanctions bite, while falls in commodity prices are leaving economies, like Brazil and the Middle East, weak. Political risks in Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to create anxieties for global trade and uncertainty over commodity prices. Q: With which, if any, one aspect of the economic outlook in the UK do you currently have the most concern? Consumer or business confidence 29% Current levels of demand 26% The outlook for interest rates 16% The outlook for inflation 8% Uncertainty over the outcome of the General Election* Other issues (e.g. exchange rate/ competitiveness, competitive environment, oil prices, skills shortage)* % 7% *Issues raised spontaneously by respondents (as part of another aspect of the UK economic outlook ) NONE/No particular aspects of concern 9%

4 3 QBE - Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy Concerns ahead UK interest rates There are risks inherent in a recovery, which can be just as challenging for businesses as trading through a downturn. Historical analysis shows that the time just after recession can be as damaging as the recession itself. Lender forbearance, which has been unusually high in this recovery, could wane, while cash flow, over expansion and a failure to invest add potential stresses and strains. The record low interest rates that have persisted at 0.% since 2009 have thrown distressed companies a life line and may have tempted some firms into higher levels of debt gearing than would be the case under normal economic circumstances. The spectre of higher levels of interest rates is looming. Economists are now predicting a gradual upward trend in interest rates, likely to begin in late 201 or early 2016, with an expectation of them reaching 2% by the end of 2017, gradually returning to a normal level of around 3.-4% by Low interest rates have helped struggling businesses meet their debt obligations, even if there is little or no chance of paying off all their debts in the foreseeable future. For many businesses, the forecast upward movement spells trouble. And the movement does not have to be huge for the impact to be felt. From research we carried out in 2014, we know that there is high sensitivity to even the smallest increase in interest rates. Some 23% of respondents indicated that an increase in interest rates of up to 0.% would have a tangible effect on their business, rising to 47% of respondents for a rate increase of up to 1.%. Over eight in ten companies believe that a gradual increase in the Bank base rate over the next two to three years will affect their businesses, such as a more cautious approach to spending (cited by 48%), an increased focus on working capital and cash flow (48%). Trade credit risk The particular nature of the UK economic recovery has helped limit the rate of company insolvencies. Historically low interest rates, low inflation, more supportive stakeholders (including banks and government) and the availability of alternative financing have all assisted. However, the conditions that have helped contain the number of insolvencies since 2010 are now shifting. These shifts will put pressure on businesses finances and will encourage creditors who have so far been unusually tolerant to get tougher on debts. Heightened perceptions of trade credit risk were confirmed in a survey undertaken by QBE in May 201. Of the survey s 377 respondents, 22% considered that trade credit risk for their business had increased over the past 6 months. The 17% net balance (the difference between respondents citing an increase and those reporting a decrease) is a material change from the 9% net balance recorded in each of the two previous surveys six months and 12 months ago, and is approaching the high of 20% positive net balance when this survey was first undertaken in October Perceptions of trade credit risk were particularly marked in the Manufacturing & Engineering and Building & Construction sectors.

5 QBE - Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy 4 Q: To what extent, if at all, have the trade credit risks faced by your company changed over the last six months Increased significantly Increased somewhat Business/Professional Services Building/Construction IT/Telecoms/Media Retail/Wholesale Manufacturing/Engineering 9 28 Leisure/Catering/Entertainment 16 Financial Services 3 14 ALL SECTORS Across the UK, the results were similar region by region, ranging from 21% to 28% reporting an increase, with the exception of London/within the M2 (10%), possibly a reflection of the sector demographics of London businesses. Q: To what extent, if at all, have trade credit risks faced by your company changed over the last six months Increased significantly Increased somewhat Birmingham/West Midlands Bristol Glasgow/Scotland 21 Leeds/Yorkshire London (within M2) 16 Manchester/Greater Manchester ALL REGIONS

6 QBE - Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy Companies of all sizes are reporting a heightened perception of trade credit risk, most markedly by large companies (20+ employees) who at 27% lead the table, followed by small businesses at 21% and 19% for mid-sized businesses. Q: To what extent, if at all, have trade credit risks faced by your company changed over the last six months Increased significantly Increased somewhat Less than 0 employees employees 20+ employees ALL COMPANIES Market risk QBE s report findings revealed that businesses are also particularly concerned at heightened levels of market risk, factors which go some way to explaining the increase in concerns of trade credit risk: competitor activity and market pricing risk was cited by 42% of respondents risks relating to the volatility and trends in prices of material inputs and goods purchased were cited by 3% of respondents the lack of visibility of customer orders/revenue were cited by over a quarter (21%). Perceived change in key risks faced by companies (in last 6 months) Increased significantly Increased somewhat Competitor activity and market pricing risk 8 34 Volatility and trends in prices of material inputs and goods 4 31 Cyber crime and data security risk 4 21 Lack of availability and quality of skills and talent 7 22 Trade credit (i.e. customer insolvency) risk 17 Supply chain risk 13 Lack of visibility of customer orders/revenue Financing risk (i.e. access to capital and cost of capital Physical and people security risk

7 QBE - Managing trade credit risk in the recovering economy 6 Protecting your business Trade credit receivables typically can represent 40% of a company s assets, but for many this amounts to unsecured lending. Companies are increasingly finding value in trade credit insurance to both protect themselves from the risk of buyer insolvency and to trade with higher levels of confidence in the financial strength of their customers. Trade credit insurance provides trading confidence and peace of mind, protecting the balance sheet against credit risks such as default, insolvency and bankruptcy. It also provides a range of benefits that can help businesses manage the credit risks associated with economic recovery and a rise in interest rates. In addition, trade credit insurance can give additional insights into customers and trading partners. Not only can it provide an added layer of credit management discipline, acting as an early warning system for businesses to avoid poor quality debtors and manage existing relationships, it can help guide businesses towards those customers with a stronger financial profile. For companies worried about their exposure to trade credit risks, we urge them to speak to their insurance broker to examine whether there is more they can be doing to protect their trade receivables. Credit Insurance from QBE We provide tailored credit insurance policies to suit businesses credit risk management needs local, global, domestic or export, for those wishing to cover the entirety of their sales ledger, major accounts or specific risks. All our clients have direct access to our industry specialists who deliver market-leading decision turnaround times. As one of the largest global multi-line insurance groups, clients benefit from the security of our A+ financial rating and the risk capacity that QBE can offer. We re recognised for our exceptional customer service across policy management, risk underwriting and claims. To help our clients trade on the most effective terms possible, we also offer a Binding Contracts advice service and a Terms & Conditions review service from one of the country s leading law firms. Further information on our products and services is available from How the research was conducted The QBE research referred to in this report was completed through a programme of telephone interviews with 377 UK companies during April and May 201. The research was conducted by independent research agencies. The job titles of individual respondents contributing to the survey varied from organisation to organisation but each of our contributors confirmed that he or she was personally involved in decision-making about managing risk. The research was focused on 7 key industry sectors (defined by SIC codes) and 6 specific UK regions (defined by post code). INDUSTRY SECTORS COVERED REGIONS COVERED Business/Professional Services Birmingham/West Midlands Building/Construction Bristol IT/Telecoms/Media Glasgow/Scotland Retail/Wholesale Leeds/Yorkshire Manufacturing/Engineering London (within M2) Leisure/Catering/Entertainment Manchester/Greater Manchester Financial Services Companies targeted for interview had a minimum of employees and a maximum of 1,000 employees. Within these parameters, interviews were evenly spread across three company size categories: -49 employees; employees; 20 1,000 employees.

8 QBE European Operations Plantation Place, 30 Fenchurch Street, London EC3M 3BD tel +44 (0) QBE European Operations is a trading name of QBE Insurance (Europe) Limited and QBE Underwriting Limited, both of which are authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. 602GC/MANAGINGTRADECREDITRISKINTHERECOVERINGECONOMY/JULY201

MANAGING TRADING RISKS THROUGH THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY

MANAGING TRADING RISKS THROUGH THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY Trade Credit Practice, UK MANAGING TRADING RISKS THROUGH THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY OCTOBER 2013 CONTENTS The trading landscape for UK based companies... 1 Payment default and bad debt... 2 Insurance benefits...

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15

TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Committee and Date Cabinet 10 June 2015 12.30 pm Item 9 Public TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Responsible Officer James Walton e-mail: james.walton@shropshire.gov.uk Tel: (01743) 255011 1.

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate

More information

PwC FY 2013 Global Revenues Grow to US$32.1 billion

PwC FY 2013 Global Revenues Grow to US$32.1 billion Press release Date EMBARGO 08:00 New York time Tuesday 1 October 2013 Contact Mike Davies + 44 20 7804 2378 Email: mike.davies@uk.pwc.com Mike Ascolese Tel: +1 646 471 8106 Email: mike.ascolese@us.pwc.com

More information

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01 (UK), 14 July 2014 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Worldwide business confidence wanes Global optimism slips from two-year high Waning confidence centred on eurozone

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

The National Business Survey National Report November 2009 Results

The National Business Survey National Report November 2009 Results The National Business Survey National Report November 2009 Results 1 Executive Summary (1) 2 NBS results from November 2009 demonstrate the continued challenging conditions faced by businesses in England

More information

EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL CABINET 21 OCTOBER 2009 TREASURY MANAGEMENT ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2008/2009 AND UPDATE ON 2009/10 STRATEGY

EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL CABINET 21 OCTOBER 2009 TREASURY MANAGEMENT ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2008/2009 AND UPDATE ON 2009/10 STRATEGY EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL CABINET 21 OCTOBER 2009 TREASURY MANAGEMENT ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2008/2009 AND UPDATE ON 2009/10 STRATEGY Report by Executive Head of Finance and Asset Management 1 PURPOSE OF REPORT

More information

The Deloitte/SEB CFO Survey Back to Basics. Fall 2014

The Deloitte/SEB CFO Survey Back to Basics. Fall 2014 The Deloitte/SEB CFO Survey Back to Basics Fall 214 Contents 3 Introduction 4 Summary 5 Business Confidence 6 Prospects and Concerns 8 Finance 9 Hot Topic: The Geopolitical Crisis 1 Macroeconomic Context

More information

International Trade Monitor

International Trade Monitor British Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Split Over Health of the UK Economy Overall SME importer and exporter confidence sees dip in Q1 Increase in SMEs hurt by sterling volatility Eurozone concerns

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

Managing Trade Risk and Business Credit Insurance. Association of Independent Corrugated Converters

Managing Trade Risk and Business Credit Insurance. Association of Independent Corrugated Converters Managing Trade Risk and Business Credit Insurance Association of Independent Corrugated Converters Sept 11, 2009 "Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin it just doesn t work. Adam Smith,

More information

The Business Credit Index

The Business Credit Index The Business Credit Index April 8 Published by the Credit Management Research Centre, Leeds University Business School April 8 1 April 8 THE BUSINESS CREDIT INDEX During the last ten years the Credit Management

More information

Global Investment Trends Survey May 2015. A study into global investment trends and saver intentions in 2015

Global Investment Trends Survey May 2015. A study into global investment trends and saver intentions in 2015 May 2015 A study into global investment trends and saver intentions in 2015 Global highlights Schroders at a glance Schroders at a glance At Schroders, asset management is our only business and our goals

More information

How to protect, inform & grow your business with trade credit insurance

How to protect, inform & grow your business with trade credit insurance Aon Risk Solutions How to protect, inform & grow your business with trade credit insurance Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. 2 How to protect, inform & grow your business with trade credit insurance

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global World GDP is forecast to grow only 2.4% in 2016, weighed down by emerging market weakness and increasing uncertainty. 3 Eurozone The modest eurozone

More information

Agents summary of business conditions

Agents summary of business conditions Agents summary of business conditions April Consumer demand had continued to grow moderately. Housing market transactions had picked up modestly since the start of the year, but were lower than a year

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Agents summary of business conditions

Agents summary of business conditions Agents summary of business conditions February Consumer demand had continued to grow at a moderate pace. Housing market activity had remained subdued relative to levels in H. Investment intentions for

More information

CHEMSYSTEMS. Report Abstract. Quarterly Business Analysis Quarter 1, 2012

CHEMSYSTEMS. Report Abstract. Quarterly Business Analysis Quarter 1, 2012 CHEMSYSTEMS PPE PROGRAM Report Abstract Quarterly Business Analysis Petrochemical Cost Price and Margin for Olefins, Polyolefins, Vinyls, Aromatics, Styrenics, Polyester Intermediates and Propylene Derivatives.

More information

Trade Credit Insurance Explained

Trade Credit Insurance Explained Trade Credit Insurance Explained How Trade Credit Insurance from Atradius Can Accelerate Your Business Growth Reduce risk, protect your cash flow and help grow your business with credit insurance. Introduction

More information

Key findings: revenue performance

Key findings: revenue performance About the survey In October 2010, Forbes Insights conducted a survey of small and mediumsized enterprises (businesses with 250 or fewer employees) in Canada and five other countries (China, Italy, Singapore,

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

Insurance Market Outlook

Insurance Market Outlook Munich Re Economic Research May 2014 Premium growth is again slowly gathering momentum After a rather restrained 2013 (according to partly preliminary data), we expect growth in global primary insurance

More information

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: :1 (UK), 1 March 14 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Developed world set to lead strengthening global upturn in 14 Global business optimism hits two-year high Improved

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

Your Partner in International Trade, Investment & Structured Finance. Aon Trade Credit Asia

Your Partner in International Trade, Investment & Structured Finance. Aon Trade Credit Asia Your Partner in International Trade, Investment & Structured Finance The ever-changing financial and political landscape makes it impossible to predict the future. Our culture encourages us to aggressively

More information

The Riksbank's Business Survey STRONG DOMESTIC DEMAND BUT DIFFICULT TO RAISE PRICES

The Riksbank's Business Survey STRONG DOMESTIC DEMAND BUT DIFFICULT TO RAISE PRICES The Riksbank's Business Survey STRONG DOMESTIC DEMAND BUT DIFFICULT TO RAISE PRICES FEBRUARY 2016 The Riksbank s Business Survey in February 2016 1 Swedish companies are now more optimistic about the

More information

Retail Industry Outlook Survey:

Retail Industry Outlook Survey: Retail Industry Outlook Survey: Modest Gains Keep Cautious Optimism in Style kpmg.com KPMG s Industry Outlook Survey KPMG LLP, the audit, tax and advisory firm, surveyed C-suite and other top-level executives

More information

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,

More information

Business Restructuring & Insolvency Report

Business Restructuring & Insolvency Report Published by TIMES Group First Edition 2015 Business Restructuring & Insolvency Report Restructuring is here to stay by Peter Wolterman and Koos Beke, PwC Netherlands We strongly believe that the restructuring

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination June 2013

General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination June 2013 General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination June 2013 Economics ECON4 Unit 4 The National and International Economy Tuesday 11 June 2013 9.00 am to 11.00 am For this paper you must have:

More information

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q4 Results 2 Contents Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4 General economic environment 5 Market conditions and the economy 6 Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 A note on methodology

More information

Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook

Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook Speech by Mr Pentti Hakkarainen, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the Honorary Consulars meeting, Helsinki,

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan Stronger Data Lead to Upward Revisions in Purchase Originations Forecast for 2015 and 2016 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: July

More information

For personal use only

For personal use only Attention ASX Company Announcements Platform Lodgement of Open Briefing ASX ANNOUNCEMENT: 8 February 2012 CEO and CFO on Half Year Results and Outlook Open Briefing with and CFO Martin Brooke Talent2 International

More information

B. Bibby Barometer Small Business Survey findings:

B. Bibby Barometer Small Business Survey findings: A. Research structure: Q & A for Bibby Barometer findings 1. Who did the research? The Bibby Barometer Small Business Survey was conducted by Galaxy Research - a well-known Australian research company.

More information

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast

More information

Willis Group Holdings. February 2014 I Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference

Willis Group Holdings. February 2014 I Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference Willis Group Holdings February 2014 I Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference Disclaimer Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements These presentations contain certain forward-looking

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

Trade Confidence Survey Australia:1H 2015

Trade Confidence Survey Australia:1H 2015 Trade Confidence Survey Australia:1H 2015 About the Survey The HSBC Trade Confidence Survey gauges business sentiment and expectations on trade activity and business growth over a six month time horizon.

More information

THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY 3RD QUARTER OF 2014

THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY 3RD QUARTER OF 2014 THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY 3RD QUARTER OF 214 OCTOBER 214 European Central Bank, 214 Address Kaiserstrasse 29, 6311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 3 19, 666 Frankfurt am Main,

More information

Heritage With Profits Fund Investment Report: UK Pension Business

Heritage With Profits Fund Investment Report: UK Pension Business Heritage With Profits Fund Investment Report: UK Pension Business Q1 2016 This leaflet gives information on the following factors that affect with profits plan values types of assets how these affect investment

More information

WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019

WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019 WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019 Worldwide retail sales including in-store and internet purchases will surpass $22 trillion in 2015, up 5.6% from

More information

A Guide to Credit Insurance

A Guide to Credit Insurance Introduction...page 1 Options for Mitigating Credit Risk...page 2 A Guide to Credit Insurance from Euler Hermes What is Credit Insurance?...page 3 The Basis of Credit Insurance...page 5 Conclusion...page

More information

Message from José Antonio Álvarez

Message from José Antonio Álvarez Message from José Antonio Álvarez 2014 was a year when the global economic situation improved, particularly in the developed economies, the hardest hit by the financial crisis. The financial situation

More information

QBE European Operations. Welcome to Professional Indemnity Insurance for Solicitors from QBE

QBE European Operations. Welcome to Professional Indemnity Insurance for Solicitors from QBE QBE European Operations Welcome to Professional Indemnity Insurance for Solicitors from QBE QBE is one of the world s leading insurers and reinsurers. We re also the largest insurer of solicitors in England

More information

3 Bank lending and the recovery

3 Bank lending and the recovery 3 Bank lending and the recovery Introduction The role of banks as suppliers of credit to the economy has been highly scrutinised during the recession. A key question has been whether constrained bank lending

More information

SPECIAL REPORT: TRADE CREDIT RISKS

SPECIAL REPORT: TRADE CREDIT RISKS SPECIAL REPORT: TRADE CREDIT RISKS 42 Five years after the crisis The trade credit insurance market has not fully recovered since the banking crisis, but is making strides forward 44 New markets, new risks

More information

Agents summary of business conditions

Agents summary of business conditions Agents summary of business conditions July Annual growth in the value of retail sales and consumer services had risen slightly over the first six months of the year, but remained modest. Activity in the

More information

New Needs, New Models: How growth and innovation are changing the way Asia Pacific organisations acquire technology

New Needs, New Models: How growth and innovation are changing the way Asia Pacific organisations acquire technology New Needs, New Models: How growth and innovation are changing the way Asia Pacific organisations acquire technology Industry Insight Paper Content Executive Summary... 3 Competing in Today s Economy....

More information

11 13 October 2015 Dubai Leveraging insurance and credit management to minimise risk, enhance trade and ensure sustainable business growth

11 13 October 2015 Dubai Leveraging insurance and credit management to minimise risk, enhance trade and ensure sustainable business growth 11 13 October 2015 Dubai Leveraging insurance and credit management to minimise risk, enhance trade and ensure sustainable business growth Conference Day 1: Sunday, 11 October 2015 08:30 Registration and

More information

The European and Spanish Economic Outlook: A Less Cloudy Global Scenario? Rafael Doménech BBVA Financial Institutions Conference

The European and Spanish Economic Outlook: A Less Cloudy Global Scenario? Rafael Doménech BBVA Financial Institutions Conference Economic Outlook Spain June 9 2016 The European and Spanish Economic Outlook: A Less Cloudy Global Scenario? Rafael Doménech BBVA Financial Institutions Conference The global economic scenario has improved

More information

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors SIGNATURE GLOBAL ADVISORS MARKETS UPDATE AUGUST 3, 2011 The following comments come from an internal interview with Chief Investment Officer, Eric Bushell. They represent Signature s current market views

More information

Problem Loan Workout and Debit Restructuring for SME s in Egypt

Problem Loan Workout and Debit Restructuring for SME s in Egypt Problem Loan Workout and Debit Restructuring for SME s in Egypt Course Hours: 24 Course Code: 12167 Objectives The principal objectives of this programme are to provide delegates with a developed understanding

More information

Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland

Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland www.pwc.ch/swissfranc Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Introduction The Swiss economy is cooling down and we are currently experiencing unprecedented levels of uncertainty in

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Mortgage Originations Estimates Revised Higher MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: February 2016 In our most recent forecast, we presented revisions to our mortgage

More information

Trade Credit Insurance: A Strategic Tool In Times of Economic Instability & Uncertainty

Trade Credit Insurance: A Strategic Tool In Times of Economic Instability & Uncertainty Trade Credit Insurance: A Strategic Tool In Times of Economic Instability & Uncertainty David Dienesch Euler Hermes Canada Andrew Leonard Marsh Canada Limited ECONOMIC UPDATE Uncertain economic environment

More information

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today.

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today. Remarks by David Dodge Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec 11 February 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Good afternoon, ladies and

More information

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery?

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? 2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises

More information

The CPA Australia. Asia-Pacific Small Business Survey 2011. Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore

The CPA Australia. Asia-Pacific Small Business Survey 2011. Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore The CPA Australia Asia-Pacific Small Business Survey Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore CPA Australia Ltd ( CPA Australia ) is one of the world s largest accounting bodies

More information

UK Economic Outlook. July 2015. UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent

UK Economic Outlook. July 2015. UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent July 2015 UK Economic Outlook UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent Does trade hold the key to the UK services productivity puzzle? Visit our blog for periodic updates at: pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business

More information

LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS APRIL 2014 LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Most economists talk about where the economy is headed it s what they do. Paying attention to economic indicators can give you an idea of

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

Mergers and Acquisitions Trends in the Global Property and Casualty Insurance Industry

Mergers and Acquisitions Trends in the Global Property and Casualty Insurance Industry Mergers and Acquisitions Trends in the Global Property and Casualty Insurance Industry Improving Industry Health to Bolster Global Merger Activity in 2014 NC3B-F1 January 2013 Contents Section Slide Number

More information

BRAZIL. 2013 was a slow year in Brazil with just over 2% GDP growth.

BRAZIL. 2013 was a slow year in Brazil with just over 2% GDP growth. BRAZIL 2013 was a slow year in Brazil with just over 2% GDP growth. Compared to 2012, however, Brazilian businesses were better able to anticipate market conditions and respond accordingly. As a result,

More information

Assessing your customers credit worthiness

Assessing your customers credit worthiness Assessing your customers credit worthiness Mike Buggy Risk Underwriting F4G event 19th November 2014 Department / author 1 Bad Debt and Insolvency Matters... 40% of a Company s assets are typically in

More information

Corporate Risk Management Advisory Services FX and interest rate solutions for clients

Corporate Risk Management Advisory Services FX and interest rate solutions for clients Corporate Risk Management Advisory Services FX and interest rate solutions for clients Risk Management: The UBS Warburg approach UBS Warburg has built an outstanding reputation in the management of foreign

More information

Recovery in UK property to gain momentum. Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum. Research & Strategy. June 2013. Economic growth recovering

Recovery in UK property to gain momentum. Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum. Research & Strategy. June 2013. Economic growth recovering Research & Strategy Recovery in UK property to gain momentum June 13 Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum This hasn t been a typical recession and it won t be a typical recovery. Nevertheless

More information

M&G Corporate Bond Fund

M&G Corporate Bond Fund Quarterly Review M&G Corporate Bond Fund Third quarter 2015 Fund manager Richard Woolnough Overview A general risk-off tone prevailed in the third quarter amid significant volatility in risk markets, driving

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

Statement to Parliamentary Committee

Statement to Parliamentary Committee Statement to Parliamentary Committee Opening Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor, in testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Sydney, 14 August 2009. The Bank s Statement

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

UNIVERSITY OF GREENWICH. Is your management team ready to face the challenges of 21st Century business?

UNIVERSITY OF GREENWICH. Is your management team ready to face the challenges of 21st Century business? Is your management team ready to face the challenges of 21st Century business? Is your management team ready to face the challenges of 21st Century business? 82 % Recent reports indicate that business

More information

Personal Debt Snapshot: Zombie debtors emerge

Personal Debt Snapshot: Zombie debtors emerge NOVEMBER 2011 Personal Debt Snapshot: Zombie debtors emerge The sixth wave of the Personal Debt Snapshot reveals the highest level of worry over debt ever recorded. Furthermore, the survey identifies a

More information

for Analysing Listed Private Equity Companies

for Analysing Listed Private Equity Companies 8 Steps for Analysing Listed Private Equity Companies Important Notice This document is for information only and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to subscribe or purchase any products.

More information

Insurance market outlook

Insurance market outlook Munich Re Economic Research 2 May 2013 Global economic recovery provides stimulus to the insurance industry long-term perspective positive as well Once a year, MR Economic Research produces long-term forecasts

More information

Executive Summary. 3 Attracting ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Executive Summary. 3 Attracting ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Visa Small Business REPORT AUGUST 0 Spend Insights Visa Small Business Spend Insights monitors the economic confidence of U.S. small business owners by analyzing Visa Business card spend data and responses

More information

GE Capital, Corporate Finance

GE Capital, Corporate Finance GE Capital, Corporate Finance Tom Quindlen Vertical Research Partners Industrial Conference September 9, 2013 Caution Concerning Forward-Looking Statements: This document contains forward-looking statements

More information

RESTRUCTURING STUDY. International 2012. Sovereign debt crisis Effects on financing and the real economy

RESTRUCTURING STUDY. International 2012. Sovereign debt crisis Effects on financing and the real economy RESTRUCTURING STUDY International 2012 Sovereign debt crisis Effects on financing and the real economy Düsseldorf, September 2012 2 Contents Page A. Goal and methodology 4 B. Summary in brief 7 C. Key

More information

Occupational Disease Claims Practice The Disease Liabilities Risk Management Tool Disease Liabilities Risk Management Tool

Occupational Disease Claims Practice The Disease Liabilities Risk Management Tool Disease Liabilities Risk Management Tool Occupational Disease Claims Practice The Disease Liabilities Risk Management Tool Disease Liabilities Risk Management Tool Contents Contents i Introduction 1 Why should I hire Marsh? 2 Disease Liabilities

More information

Graydon s Credit Industry Surveys.

Graydon s Credit Industry Surveys. Graydon s Credit Industry Surveys. At Graydon we are dedicated to helping businesses manage their exposure to credit risk and commercial fraud. In order for us to deliver the most appropriate products

More information

The rise of the cross-border transaction. Grant Thornton International Business Report 2013

The rise of the cross-border transaction. Grant Thornton International Business Report 2013 The rise of the cross-border transaction Grant Thornton International Business Report 2013 Foreword MIKE HUGHES GLOBAL SERVICE LINE LEADER MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS GRANT THORNTON INTERNATIONAL LTD When reflecting

More information

European debt crisis hits UK international trade

European debt crisis hits UK international trade JUNE 0 European debt crisis hits UK international trade Inflation threat and weak pound concern UK businesses trading internationally Seven in 0 exporters are concerned that inflation will affect their

More information

Marketability: Exchange rates How they work and affect revenues

Marketability: Exchange rates How they work and affect revenues Annex A Marketability: Exchange rates How they work and affect revenues 1. Overview The value of the Canadian lobster industry is determined by several factors: resource abundance; the capacity of the

More information

Automation Industry Market Report

Automation Industry Market Report Automation Industry Market Report The Global Industrial Automation Industry After weathering a difficult economic recession, the global automation industry is once again on the upswing, with many industry

More information

CommBank Accounting Market Pulse. Conducted by Beaton Research + Consulting

CommBank Accounting Market Pulse. Conducted by Beaton Research + Consulting CommBank Accounting Market Pulse. Conducted by Beaton Research + Consulting December 15 ( ) COMMBANK ACCOUNTING MARKET PULSE DECEMBER 15 Contents Foreword 2 Economic outlook 3 Snapshot of survey findings

More information

An Overview of Trade Credit Insurance. Author: Joe Ketzner Executive Vice President, Commercial Euler Hermes

An Overview of Trade Credit Insurance. Author: Joe Ketzner Executive Vice President, Commercial Euler Hermes An Overview of Trade Credit Insurance Author: Joe Ketzner Executive Vice President, Commercial Euler Hermes Table of Contents Introduction...3 More about Trade Credit Insurance...4 Philosophy of Trade

More information

The history of the Bank of Russia s exchange rate policy

The history of the Bank of Russia s exchange rate policy The history of the Bank of Russia s exchange rate policy Central Bank of the Russian Federation Abstract During the post-soviet period of 1992 98, the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia was essentially

More information

Exova PLC Investor Conference Call 29 November 2013

Exova PLC Investor Conference Call 29 November 2013 Exova PLC Investor Conference Call 29 November 2013 2 Forward looking statements This document contains certain forward looking statements based on knowledge and information available to the directors

More information

global ENTERPRISE SURVEY REPORT 2011 asia-pacific

global ENTERPRISE SURVEY REPORT 2011 asia-pacific global ENTERPRISE SURVEY REPORT 2011 asia-pacific A UNIQUE AnnuAL insight into the competitiveness of ASIA-PAcific businesses And developments in GLOBALisAtion business with confidence icaew.com/smeresearch

More information

EMBARGOED UNTIL TUESDAY, 12 MARCH 2013 AT 00.01 GMT

EMBARGOED UNTIL TUESDAY, 12 MARCH 2013 AT 00.01 GMT EMBARGOED UNTIL TUESDAY, 12 MARCH 2013 AT 00.01 GMT Media Contact: Juan David Tous (4) 3815151 juan.tous@manpower.com.co LABOR MARKET IN COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE ManpowerGroup

More information

Competitiveness and the Global Trends Roadmap: 2015-2050

Competitiveness and the Global Trends Roadmap: 2015-2050 Competitiveness and the Global Trends Roadmap: 2015-2050 IMD R&D Global Trends are an interesting pedagogical tool to open up the minds of IMD participants, and are commonly used early in an IMD program

More information

Interim Report 2002/3

Interim Report 2002/3 Interim Report 2002/3 Highlights Financial results Turnover increased by 42% to 111.7m (2001: 78.6m) Profit before tax, goodwill and exceptional item increased by 2% to 15.3m (2001: 15.1m) Earnings per

More information

Standard & Poor s perspective on Swedish insurance sector risks

Standard & Poor s perspective on Swedish insurance sector risks Standard & Poor s perspective on Swedish insurance sector risks Summary In May 2013, Standard & Poor's published new insurance criteria. Our objective with the new criteria is to improve the transparency

More information