A Geospatial Solution for Minimizing Risk. Pipeline Hazard Categorization

Transcription

1 A Geospatial Solution for Minimizing Risk Pipeline Hazard Categorization 1

2 Agenda 1. At stake: corporate value and reputation 2. Contributing Pipeline Segments: a building block for risk prioritization 3. GIS: a framework for spatial modeling 4. The solution: pipeline hazard categorization

3 1 Corporate Value & Reputation Impact of Pipeline Accidents to Operators

4 The Corporate Risk Landscape Multiple high visibility incidents have occurred, destroying public confidence. Recent court rulings have resulted in substantial fines, jail time for upper management, and further erosion of confidence in the industry. Oil and gas infrastructure is aging. New projects are facing increased scrutiny and opposition. 4

5 Risk to Corporate Value Accidents erode corporate reputations Response and remediation costs, regulatory fines << loss of corporate value Stock prices fall after an incident and have decreased corporate value Cases in point: BP, Newfield 5

6 Oil & Gas Sector Top Risks #1Priority Risk of health, safety or environmental incident and in ensuring regulatory compliance. *Ernst & Young 6

7 Managing Risk Challenges Deferred maintenance has occurred over decades. Industry recognizes that significant maintenance and repair must occur. Maintenance budgets are limited. Relationship of the pipeline to proximal human and environmental resources is complex. 7

8 Managing Risk Solution Reduce exposure to risk by prioritizing those areas that must be repaired first. How do you prioritize? Engineering integrity data has been the primary focus historically. But corporate risk is associated with the magnitude of the human and environmental consequences. 8

9 2 CPS Identification A building block for risk prioritization

10 Terminology & Acronyms HCA: high consequence area (U.S.) High population area Urbanized area; at least 50k people; at least 1k people per mi 2 Other populated area Place, as defined by the Census Bureau, with concentrated population Unusually sensitive area As defined in Commercially navigable waterway Waterway where substantial likelihood of commercial navigation exists 10

11 Terminology & Acronyms PHMSA: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (U.S.) NEB: National Energy Board (CA) GIS: Geographic Information System CPS: Contributing Pipeline Segment PHC: Pipeline Hazard Categorization 11

12 Regulatory Environment United States 49 CFR Part and Appendix C require an operator to identify which pipeline segments (CPSs) could affect an HCA Part of Integrity Management Plan Canada Recent NEB encouragement 12

13 CPS Identification Core Concept Identify all pipeline segments that could affect HCAs in the event of a release Benefits Regulatory compliance Reduces environmental permitting risk Communicates risk to regulators and public Prioritizes areas most at risk to economies, human health or ecological impacts Repair, replace, and mitigate highest risk assets 13

14 Stantec Approach Stantec s methodology has been successfully applied across U.S. and Canadian assets. Develop a relational GIS that associates the portions of pipeline which could potentially affect an HCA(s) Conservative model: methods assume worst-case scenario (e.g. maximum release volume, flooding conditions, etc.) Determine the hazard associated with each CPS as it relates to the rest of the pipeline 14

15 3 GIS: a framework for spatial modeling The right answers, right now.

16 Why GIS? Big data distillery HCA mapping requires understanding of complex interaction between pipeline and numerous datasets (topography, hydrography, etc.) GIS allows for simplification of these relationships Can extract and utilize only useful information Powerful spatial software Capable of identifying release trajectories ( flow paths ) Can serve as framework for spatial modeling 16

17 Which HCAs? Potentially impacted HCAs are determined by a number of variables Distance to HCA Properties of oil (e.g. viscosity) Terrain slope and aspect Land cover Location, velocity and flow direction of watercourses Presence of flow impedances/impoundments 17

18 Transport pathways Model evaluates all pipeline segments based on 4 pathways: HCA contact Overland flow Subsurface flow Downstream transport Imagery 18

19 HCA Contact Direct crossing of an HCA by the pipeline Easy to identify within GIS Presents most immediate opportunity for release to impact an HCA Pipeline HCA HCA contact Topography 19

20 Overland Flow Aboveground lateral dispersal of a release; no initial watercourse Flow paths identified using digital elevation models Manning s equation for overland flow, modified for oil viscosity, determines transport distance Accounts for impedances (roads, railways, etc.) HCAs Overland Flow Slope 20

21 Subsurface Flow Only analyzes subsurface HCAs HCAs are buffered, then evaluated for HCA contact Buffer HCAs Land Aspect Cover 21

22 Downstream Transport How far will the product go down a watercourse? Controlled by two variables: Emergency response time (initial containment) Stream velocity HCAs NHD Flow Lines Downstream Flow Aspect 22

23 CPS Analysis Viable flow paths or HCA contact identify segments of pipeline with potential to contribute to HCA during a release Pipeline is cut into contributing and noncontributing segments Three Types: Surface Water Analysis Groundwater analysis Combined analysis HCAs CPS Non-CPS 23

24 Prioritization of High-Risk Pipeline Segments Reputation. Time. Money.

25 Hazard Categorization: Scoring Each CPS is input into a proprietary Stantec tool to assign a segment hazard score Hazard scores for each CPS are determined by many factors Length of CPS Maximum release volume Number of HCAs potentially impacted Etc. 25

26 Hazard Categorization: Risk Ranking Once CPS is scored, it is ranked against other segments of the pipeline to identify most at-risk sections of the system Extending the model Hazard categorization based on HCAs is simply the first possible phase of risk ranking Can combine environmental sensitivity and threat maps into integrated product that identifies and prioritizes those locations that pose the greatest corporate risk, prior to an event. 26

27 Hazard Categorization: Timing 1. Initial/Pre-Construction CPS Analysis 2. As-Built Hazard Categorization Analysis 3. Updated Hazard Categorization Analysis 27

28 Summary Identify areas where a release could significantly impact local economies, public health, and environmental receptors. Combine environmental priorities with engineering integrity data. Strategy: Rank areas by magnitude of risk to increase effectiveness of future decisions. Outcome of PHC analysis Prioritize high risk areas so maintenance dollars are spent effectively. Consistent methodology allows risk to be compared within and between assets. 28

29 Contact: Heidi Tillquist Phone: (970) Cell: (970) Balancing risk in your business equation PIPELINE/FACILITY DESIGN REGULATORY COMPLIANCE EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANNING INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT 29