Protecting your company s performance from supply chain disruptions. Madrid June 2010

Transcription

1 Protecting your company s performance from supply chain disruptions Madrid June 2010

2 SCRM self assessment 1. Do you know who your critical suppliers are and how much their failure would impact your company s profits? 2. Have you fully mapped your critical supply chains upstream to the raw material level and downstream to the customer level? 3. Have you integrated risk management processes into your supply chain management approaches? 4. Do you have routine timely systems for measuring the financial stability of critical suppliers? 5. Do you understand your tier 1 production facilities and logistic hub exposures to natural catastrophes? 6. Is supply chain risk management integrated into your enterprise risk management approach? 7. Do you record the details of supply chain incidents and the actions you have put in place to avoid future incidents? 8. Do your tier 1 suppliers have business continuity plans that have been tested in terms of their viability? 9. Have you provided risk training to your supply chain management team? 10. Is risk on the agenda at performance meetings with your strategic suppliers? Your supply chain Health indicator How many Yes answers did you score? 8-10 You probably have a good understanding and control over the risks you face. 5-7 You may have a number of key gaps which could impact your reputation or profitability. 3-4 How are you sleeping at night? 0-2 Good luck. 2

3 Objectives To understand the extent of the issues you need to consider in addressing supply chain risk. To develop one or two action points you will take back to the office to help protect your companies profitability. To help you understand where you might need support in reducing supply chain risk in your company. 3

4 Implications on shareholder value Research in the US has shown an average 25% reduction in share price and an impact of over two years from supply chain disruptions. Source: Vinod Singhal Source: Yossi Sheifi & James B. Rice Jr.,,MI Sloan Management Review,

5 A timely reminder 5

6 Known issues Fresh produce from Kenya and Israel. Strategic high value businesses hit. BMW US production plant. Nissan Japanese plant. Fujitsu production. Airlines $1.7 billion impact. 6

7 What does the research say? Risks are on the increase. Disruptions are created by global supply chains, lean operations, complexity, outsourcing Businesses are under-prepared. More disruptions expected. Source: Sheffi, 2005; Aberdeen Group, BCI survey 2009 What else do we know? 7

8 Zurich loss event database 2405 supply chain disruptions. Covers 35 industries across six regions. Examples: Thai Airways to seek Airbus delivery delay Dow Jones Factiva, 1/8/09. Dairy group recalls juice mixed with buttermilk Dow Jones Factiva, 4/11/08. 8

9 Zurich loss event database 9

10 Database structure Causes Classification is based on ISO Primary causes Secondary causes Causes Natural/Human Intentional/ Unintentional Disruptions (risks) Four types of risks (from one of most cited papers) Internal Supply side risk Demand side risk Environmental risk Five consequences Based on ISO Duration of impact Financial loss 10

11 Top ten causes 11

12 Duration of disruptions 12

13 Financial consequences 19% 20% 14% 22% 13

14 The recovery curve Customers willingness to wait 14

15 External exposures related to the identified industries/supplies 1. Industry/Supply-specific geographical exposures. 2. Industry/Supply-specific economic exposures. 3. Industry/Supply-specific political exposures. 4. Industry/Supply-specific structural risks. 5. Supplier specific geographical exposures. 6. Supplier specific economic exposures. 7. Supplier specific political exposures. 8. Supplier specific structural risks. 15

16 Supply mapping Key part of defining critical issues. Visual validation. Basis for risk scenarios and quantification. 16

17 Supply chain map Product/Value flow for parts of the business affected by key suppliers. Volumes and revenue effects where available. Interdependency effects where available (other company sites affected). 17

18 Risk evaluation and scenario definitions Examine the nature of the supply chain risks and determine the relative priorities. Provide details for each key loss scenario. Build financial evaluation ( LCF). Likelihood Impact 18

19 Mapping and quantification 19

20 Scenario analysis BI Loss, production alternatives BI Loss, production alternatives 20

21 Risk factor information on key suppliers Elements of risk associated with each key supplier, including: risk management, relationships, IP issues, skills, experience. (See supply chain risk factors.) Consider questionnaire to key suppliers (answers may already be known). Similar set of questions will form the basis for overall risk assessment. Zurich Risk Assessment Tool. Following Zurich s supply chain risk factor structure. 21

22 Risk factor information on key suppliers ZURICH RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL (RAT) Risk Factor Title / Question Response Score Comment Chosen Supplier 1 10 Vendor Selection Management 10(a) Choosing the Supplier 10.1 How robust was the supplier selection process? No Data 10.2 In the supplier analysis how did we evaluate supply chain risk with this supplier? No Data 10.3 What was the quality of the supplier audit pre decision? No Data 10.4 Are we exposed to any "special relationships" with the chosen supplier? No Data 10.5 Who was responsible for the sourcing decision? No Data 10(b) Category Market/Supply Chain Analysis 22

23 Risk factors internal controls 1 Supplier management 9. Product management/new product development To what extent could rapid market change or new product development increase the chance of supply disruption? 10. Vendor selection management To what extent are supply risks assessed as part of the sourcing strategy and vendor selection processes? 11. Vendor management (financial strength) How well managed are financial risks in the supply chain? 12. Supply chain performance How closely monitored and managed is the performance of the supply chain? 23

24 Risk factors internal controls 2 Risk management 13. Internal risk management. 14. Business Continuity Management (BCM). 15. Vulnerability to accidents/errors. 16. Vulnerability to malicious intervention. 17. Commercial contract management. 18. Skills and IP management (insured). 19. Regulatory issues. 24

25 Example mitigation If supplier affected If own facilities affected If customers affected Raw material stock Modular stock Finished stock Dual/Multi-sourcing Insource Revert to more expensive options Redesign Spot market Suppliers BCM Contract terms Buy supplier Finished stock Outsource Sub-contract Spare capacity (overtime/production) Reciprocal arrangements Mutual aid Spares Hire/Lease equipment/premises Second hand equipment More expensive options Redesign Spot market IT/Comms DR Work area recovery site production/offices/warehouses Temporary structures Generators Home working/vpn Spread of risk Agreed alternative supply points 25

26 Unforeseen exposures discovered through risk assessment Two key suppliers at the next level in the supply chain were in significant financial trouble Exposure due to potential failure of a supplier higher than initially estimated: USD10million vs. USD1million Customer reliance on one supplier significantly greater 70% vs. 20% Company discovered that key component supplier and its alternative were located in earthquake zone. 26

27 Risk assessment stages Develop a supply chain/value chain map Gather key supply/supplier details Evaluate risk factor information Define and evaluate risk scenarios Develop risk grading Insurance considerations? Determine risk strategies 27

28 Insurance rating Historical database of supply disruptions Other lines of business Supply / supplier 1 Risk Factor Industry/Supply-Specific - Geographical Exposures Industry/Supply-Specific - Economic Exposures. Industry/Supply-Specific - Political Exposures. Industry/Supply-Specific - Structural Risks Supplier Specific - Geographical Exposures Supplier Specific - Economic Exposures Supplier Specific - Political Exposures Supplier Specific - Structural Risks Product Management / New Product Development Supplier Selection Management Supplier Management (Financial Strength) Supply Chain Performance Internal Risk Management Business Continuity Management (BCM) Vulnerability To Accidents / Errors Vulnerability To Malicious Intervention Commercial Contract Management Skills And IP Management (Insured) Regulatory Issues Relationship With Supplier (Influence, Maturity) Supplier's Security Of Supply Supplier's Knowledge And Experience Of Providing Required Supplies Skills and IP Managament (Supplier) Risk Engineering Factor As is B C C B B C C B B B B B C C B A B E (=C) A B B A E (=C) B Insurance rating model Accumulation database Assessment and grading GSP Industry and supply research Insolvency assessment 28

29 Actions and follow up What are the one or two actions you will take in relation to your supply chain risk as a result of this workshop? Name one area where you would like help in moving forward supply chain risk in terms of your company? Good source of further information 29

30 Exercise conclusions This is not just risk management but performance improvement. A reactive response is not enough. Must be proactive. The stakeholder groups are complex and far-reaching. Inclusivity and communication are absolutely key. Risk Management working with Supply Chain, Operations and Finance Teams. In assessing your Supply Chain Risks consider: Information flows and internal processes. Assets and infrastructure. Organisations and inter-organisational networks. Macro issues including economic and political. 30

31 Recent supply chain study 31

32 Working with us means 32

33 Supply chain risk assessment and insurance Nick Wildgoose FCA FCIPS Global Supply Chain Proposition Manager Tel. No.: Tim Astley Strategic Risk Consultant Tel No.: Thank you

34 Process overview Workshop if necessary Which supplies? Zurich Spreadsheets Scoping Q/UW data Accumulation check Can we write this supply/supplier? Risk assessment Generic supply profile Independent assessment of supply For each supply/supplier Financial assessment setting of limits Risk grading Translation of assessment into scores/info for UW and pricing Loss calculation formula Pricing and underwriting Price and cover 34

35 Zurich supply chain risk grading tool 35