2014 Nano / Microsatellite Market Assessment. Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)

Transcription

1 2014 Nano / Microsatellite Market Assessment

2 2014 Nano / Microsatellite Market Assessment Developed by: Ms. Elizabeth Buchen Director, Engineering Economics Group elizabeth.buchen@sei.aero Mr. Dominic DePasquale Space Ventures Specialist dominic.depasquale@sei.aero Published by: SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) Atlanta, GA 2

3 2013 SpaceWorks 2013 Projection estimated 93 nano/ microsatellites would launch globally in 2013; 92 nano/ microsatellites actually launched, an increase of 269% over SpaceWorks 2014 Projection reflects a significant increase in the quantity of future nano/microsatellites needing a launch. This year s projection is 2-3 times higher than our 2013 projection in the later years ( ), which is driven by the emergence and continued growth of commercial players in the 1-50 kg satellite market. 3

4 2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment Overview The data source for this study is the SpaceWorks Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB) The LDDB is an extensive database of all known historical ( ) and future (2014+) satellite projects with masses between 0 kg and 10,000+ kg Currently 650 future ( ) nano/microsatellites (1 50 kg) in the LDDB (focus of this study) Currently 48 future (2014+) picosatellites (< 1 kg) in the LDDB (not included in this study) SpaceWorks has projected global launch demand in the nano/microsatellite market according to a Gompertz logistic curve from 2014 to the year 2020 Note that SpaceWorks places no value judgment on whether developers will successfully meet their announced launch date or not The nano/microsatellite projection was developed from a combination of two data sets Publicly announced nano/microsatellite projects and programs Quantitative and qualitative adjustments to account for the expected sustainment of current projects and programs (e.g. follow-on to EDSN, CubeSat Launch Initiative), as well as the continued emergence and growth of numerous existing commercial companies Projections indicate substantial growth in nano/microsatellite launches, with an estimated range of 410 to 543 nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg) that will need launches globally in 2020 (compared to 92 in 2013) 4

5 Nano/Microsatellite Definitions and Terminology Many nanosatellites are based on the CubeSat standard Developed in by California Polytechnic State University and Stanford University in 1999 Consists of any number of 10 cm x 10 cm x 10 cm units Each unit, or U, usually has a volume of exactly one liter Each U has a mass close to 1 kg and not to exceed 1.33 kg (e.g. a 3U CubeSat has mass between 3 and 4 kg) Aalborg University s AAUSAT4 CubeSat Satellite Class Femtosatellite Mass Range g This study limits the upper end of microsatellite mass to 50 kg given the relative large amount of satellite development activity in the 1-50 kg range by comparison to the kg range. Picosatellite Nanosatellite Scope of this study Microsatellite < 1 kg 1 10 kg 1 50 kg kg Small Satellite kg 5

6 Nano/Microsatellite Applications and Associated Examples Credit: Scientific Research Phonesat 1.0 Mass: 1 kg Launched: 4/2013 Credit: University of Florida Technology SwampSat Mass: 1.2 kg Launched: 11/2013 Credit: Planet Labs Earth Observation Dove 2 Mass: 5.5 kg Launched: 4/2013 Credit: Education ArduSat Mass: 1 kg Launched: 8/2013 Credit: USAF/SMC Military Application SENSE-1 Mass: 5 kg Launched: 11/2013 Astronomy BRITE-PL Mass: 7 kg Launched: 11/2013 6

7 Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Projection (1-50 kg) Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate between 2,000 and 2,750 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through Number of Satellites (1-50 kg) Full Market Potential SpaceWorks Projection Historical Launches Calendar Year The Full Market Potential dataset is a combination of publically announced launch intentions, market research, and qualitative/quantitative assessments to account for future activities and programs. The SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks expert value judgment on the likely market outcome. * Please see End Notes 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6. 7

8 Nano/Microsatellite Future Program Summary (1 50 kg) Large Program Breakdown for Announced Future Satellites 700 Name of Program/ Satellite Constellation Timeframe Organization Country Mass (kg) Launched to Date Total Planned NSF EDSN NSF Geospace & Atmospheric CubeSat NSF USA NASA EDSN NASA ARC USA CSLI SeeMe QB50 HUMSAT Existing Large Programs, 25% NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative NASA USA SeeMe Payloads 2016 DARPA USA QB HUMSAT Von Karman Institute / Various University of Vigo / Various Various Various Number of Satellites (1-50 kg) Commercial (USA) Other Programs, 75% Existing large programs will comprise only 25% of future nano/microsatellites (compared to 65% in 2013) due to worldwide growth in the civil and commercial sectors 100 Other (USA) Other (Foreign) * Assumes two NSF Geospace & Atmospheric CubeSat satellites selected in NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative total includes the sixteen missions chosen in February 2014 (in response to August 2013 Announcement of Opportunity) and the timeframe listed is based on when the already selected CubeSats are scheduled to launch. QB50 total includes two precursor satellites. Please see End Notes 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7. 0 SpaceWorks Projection ( ) 8

9 Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Sector (1 50 kg) 100% 90% 80% 224 Civil Government Commercial Defense/Intelligence 70% Number of Satellites 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Commercial sector will contribute 56% of future nano/ microsatellites 10% 0% Historical ( ) SpaceWorks Projection ( ) The civil sector remains strong, contributing over one third of future nano/microsatellites, but it will see reductions compared to when the sector contributed 63% * Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 8. 9

10 Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Purpose (1 50 kg) Over half of future nano/microsatellites will be used for Earth observation and remote sensing purposes (compared to 12% from 2009 to 2013) Reconnaissance Earth Observation/ Remote Sensing Scientific Reconnaissance Earth Observation/ Remote Sensing 12% 2% 21% 2% 52% Historical ( ) 10% 20% SpaceWorks Projection ( ) Technology 55% Communications Technology 9% 17% Total: 202 Total: 650 Communications Scientific A smaller proportion of technology development/demonstration nano/microsatellites will be built in the next few years (20% vs. 55% from 2009 to 2013) * Please see End Notes 2, 6, and 7. 10

11 Nanosatellite Size Trends (1-10 kg) 1U (1 kg) CubeSats, while still immensely popular, will comprise less of the market in the future (35% of future nanosatellites compared to 47% from 2009 to 2013) Percentage Contribution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 kg 2 kg 3 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg Historical ( ) 3% SpaceWorks Projection ( ) 25% 1 kg 2 kg 3 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg 25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly popular 6 kg mass class (compared to only 3% from 2009 to 2013) * Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 9. 11

12 Historical Nano/Microsatellites Launched: (1-50 kg) kg kg Number of Satellites Significant growth in the 1-10 kg mass range Calendar Year A 330% increase in attempted nanosatellite (1-10 kg) deliveries in 2013, compared to 2012, shows signs of an emerging and growing launch market * Please see End Notes 1 and 2. 12

13 Historical Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Launch Vehicle ( ) Launch Vehicle Launch Vehicles: for 1-10 kg Satellite Class No. of Satellites No. of Launches Percentage of Satellites Launched Kosmos-3M % Dnepr % Minotaur I % PSLV % H % Space Shuttle % Falcon % Soyuz 9 5 4% Delta II 8 3 3% Long March 7 4 3% Minotaur IV 8 1 3% Vega 8 2 3% Other 8 5 3% Antares 4 1 2% Atlas V 5 2 2% Rokot-KM 6 1 2% Falcon % M-5 (2) 2 2 1% Launch Vehicle Launch Vehicles: for kg Satellite Class No. of Satellites No. of Launches Percentage of Satellites Launched Kosmos-3M % Dnepr % H % Minotaur I 9 2 9% PSLV 8 6 8% Minotaur IV 7 5 7% Safir 6 6 6% Soyuz 6 6 6% Long March 5 5 5% Other 5 5 4% Pegasus-XL 3 1 3% Space Shuttle 3 2 3% Delta IV Heavy 2 1 2% KT % Rokot-KM 2 2 2% Atlas V 1 1 1% Delta II 1 1 1% Falcon % Falcon % Low cost piggy-back opportunities have historically attracted small satellite payloads to international launch vehicles * Please see End Note 2. 13

14 Emergence of Commercial Companies: 2013 Case Study SpaceWorks released its annual nano/microsatellite projections in February of 2013 According to the projection, 93 satellites (1-50 kg) were planning to launch in satellites (1-50 kg) actually launched in 2013 Based on the announced launch data alone, 2014 will see a 52% increase in nano/microsatellites launched compared to 2013 Commercial companies will contribute over onefourth of all nano/microsatellites launched in 2014 This is a significant increase from 2013, where the commercial sector contributed only 11% Commercial Company Satellite Class Satellite Application Dauria Aerospace Deep Space Industries GeoOptics, Inc. ISIS Outernet (MDIF) NanoSatisfi Planet Labs Planetary Resources, Inc. SpaceQuest, Ltd. Earth Obs./ Remote Sensing Nano Nano Micro Nano/Micro Nano Nano Nano Nano/Micro The continued emergence and growth of commercial companies (see table) will result in an even greater increase in 2015, with the sector contributing 60% of all nano/ microsatellites launched Many companies have publicly revealed their near-term intentions regarding future launches of nano/ microsatellites and the satellites wide spectrum of revenue generating applications Other companies have been more reserved, revealing only small details of their plans Data Collection Micro Asteroid Exploration Precise quantities aside, strong evidence suggests the commercial sector will have a meaningful and enduring impact on the nano/microsatellite industry Ship Tracking * Please see End Notes 2, 4, 6, 7, and

15 2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment Conclusions The nano/microsatellite market is growing tremendously with the continued use of the CubeSat standard, microelectronics and other technology development, government programs, and furthering of applications The civil sector remains strong, but the eruption of commercial companies and start-up activities will continue to influence the nano/microsatellite market; future launches suggest this trend will continue Projections based on both announced and anticipated plans of developers indicate 2,000 2,750 nano/ microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020 Nano/Microsatellite CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate): Historical average growth of 37.2% per year over the last 4 years ( ) SpaceWorks Projection Dataset shows average growth of 23.8% per year over the next 6 years ( ) While 1U (1 kg) CubeSats are still widely used, 25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly popular 6 kg mass class Applications for nano/microsatellites are diversifying, with increased use in the future for Earth observation and remote sensing missions * Please see End Notes 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7. 15

16 Custom analyses and more detailed assessments are available from SpaceWorks for nano/microsatellites and larger satellite classes For additional information or to request a quote, please contact: Ms. Elizabeth Buchen Director, Engineering Economics Group elizabeth.buchen@sei.aero 16

17 End Notes 1. The number of satellites may not equal the number of launches since many small satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite comanifested on a particular launch vehicle). Historical data includes failed launch attempts. 2. The data used throughout this presentation (both historical and future) may not represent all global nano/microsatellite activities. 3. All NSF satellites thus far have launched through the NASA CSLI. In the table, these historical NSF satellites are included in both the count of number launched for NSF and the count for CSLI (double counted in this sense). The bar graph of future launches shows only those NSF satellites that expected, but currently not manifested (thus they are appropriately single counted for future launches). 4. The SpaceWorks Projection and Full Market Potential datasets include some known nano/microsatellite programs for which a specific launch date has not been announced. The satellites belonging to these programs are distributed across the period (date range) for launches according to the announced program objectives 5. Future projections from are determined by Gompertz logistic curve best fit regression with market saturation point (asymptote for number of satellites) set at 525 nano/microsatellites in a year for the SpaceWorks Projection dataset and 580 for the Full Market Potential dataset. 6. The Full Market Potential dataset contains all currently known past and future nano/microsatellites from the SpaceWorks LDDB, with the addition of an inflating factor for known unknowns plus assumed sustainment of certain current projects and programs (e.g. follow-on to NASA Ames EDSN, CubeSat Launch Initiative, DARPA SeeMe) and the continued emergence and growth of numerous existing commercial companies. The SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks expert value judgment on the likely market outcome. 7. These graphs are based on the SpaceWorks Projection dataset only, and do not include the additional satellites contained in the Full Market Potential dataset. 8. By some traditional definitions of space industrial sectors, non-defense government space activities are a subsector of the civil sector. Here we break out non-defense government activities into a separate sector. Government refers to those nano/microsatellite development efforts that occur within/by the government agency or organization (e.g. NASA, JAXA). Civil refers to all other non-defense development activities (e.g. universities, federally funded research institutions), though the funding source may be a government agency. 9. Nanosatellites are binned by rounding mass to the nearest whole number. Picosatellites less than 1 kg are not included. 10. Satellite application images are credited to the following websites:

18 SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 Atlanta, GA USA