Windows XP EoL: The cost of not migrating

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1 The cost of not migrating

2 Executive summary Preface Current situation Risks: Windows XP will cease to be supported by Microsoft on 8th April 2014 Organizations risk losing support or face paying expensive custom support agreements Custom support agreements for Windows XP could be significantly higher than previous custom support agreements for other Microsoft products Ignoring the urgency to rapidly decommission Windows XP and migrate to Windows 7 could have major business implications Estimates are that first year custom support can be as high as $200 per device, doubling over successive years of un-migrated devices. Microsoft will end support for Windows XP on the 8th April Organizations that have not started a migration to Microsoft Windows 7 will need to do so quickly or lose support for one of the most important technologies in the enterprise desktop environment. There are two options for customers after this date; either take the significant risk (see the whitepaper on Windows XP EoL: The risk of not migrating) or pay for a custom support agreement. This paper discusses the potential costs of End of Life (EoL) custom support agreements based on historical data in the public domain and options to rapidly avoid these costs. The migration to Windows 7 is one of the most complex, costly and time consuming projects in recent times certainly since the migration to Windows XP. Many organizations are struggling financially with the timing of this hard date so soon after the global financial crisis (GFC). Organizations are also still struggling with application compatibility legacy applications that are unable to work with Windows 7. With so much to consider; IT service, delivery & support, business continuity & productivity, data migration and centralization, and user experience & quality of service organizations are looking to improve efficiencies, reduce cost and protect user uptime. The problem is that the cost of ignoring this migration could have severe repercussions in the cost of a custom support agreement. Recommendations: Understand the potential costs associated with a custom support agreement Avoid paying for custom end of life Windows XP support, instead invest in rapid migration to Windows 7 Utilize specialist migration solutions to rapidly migrate user persona, security policies and user data to new Windows 7 desktop

3 The custom support cost of not decommissioning XP Rationale As at today s date it is difficult to assign a definitive cost per device for an accurate cost for custom support of Windows XP, as: 1. Agreements like this are usually conducted confidentially and protected by a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) 2. Windows XP extended support is yet to expire However there are avenues that can provide indications of the cost and structure of these agreements. 1. Government departments and agencies, due to their requirement to provide public disclosure of expenditure, cannot be bound under NDA for pricing. Additionally they have to provide accessible and full public disclosure. Many agencies in the past were forced to take up custom support agreements for Windows 2000 EoL. Thus we can look back at previous custom support costs for this platform as a basis for what the future Windows XP EoL costs could conservatively be. In this instance we based our analysis on public domain data from the Mayor of London Office for Policing and Crime which purchased a Windows 2000 EoL custom support agreement. 2. Analyst consultation engagements with organizations, on their Windows XP custom support cost planning and Windows 7 migration strategy. As some organizations anticipate having to yield and pay for custom support due to the challenges they foresee in their Windows 7 migrations they are already seeking guidance from industry analysts who have published indicative cost models for Windows XP custom support. Custom support pricing models Based on the model used to allow customers to pay for extended support of Windows 2000, we can draw a number of assumptions for the possible cost of custom support for Windows XP. The cost of custom support for Windows 2000 is taken from the public domain in circa Four years on and with the cost of IT operations on the rise, coupled with the high priority Microsoft is placing on the migration away from Windows XP, analysts believe that these costs could now be significantly higher for custom support for Windows XP in Likewise the industry press are reporting significant increases in the custom support of Windows XP, especially in years 2 and 3, both the analyst and press information is detailed in the below models. Please Note: The pricing contained in the Windows 2000 customer support model and the Conservative cost estimate of custom support for Windows XP based on Windows 2000 experience are originally sourced as GBP and have been converted to $USD at an exchange rate of 1.00 GBP = 1.5 USD as per average exchange rate on 4th April The Windows 2000 custom support model: Based on public domain data obtained, custom support pricing financially drives migration towards a modern operating system, so that no device remains on custom support at the end of a 3 year period. The cost per device will increase at almost double the rate of the previous year on a yearly basis assuming that devices have not been decommissioned in the previous year. First year pricing for Windows 2000 support was approximately USD$190 per device.

4 Analyst reporting on Windows XP custom support costs According to Gartner, Microsoft has started working with organizations on custom support contracts for Windows XP. Reports are that pricing may be significantly higher than it was in the past. And that this will cause tangible budget issues for many organizations that need to run Windows XP securely after 8 April The 3 year custom support agreement pricing can double year on year Previous custom support cost caps have been eliminated, so large organizations using the cap as inexpensive insurance against a large number of devices will be subject to much higher costs Gartner seeing large organizations quoted $5 million for the first year alone. Custom support will not be given without the customer having a plan to migrate off Windows XP, much like the Windows 2000 custom support model Media commentary on Windows XP custom support costs According a recent ComputerWorld article: An IT manager, who wished to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak on the matter, told Computerworld that Microsoft had quoted his company $1 million for the first year of custom support to cover 5,000 Windows XP machines, $2 million for the second year, and $5 million for the third. Cost estimate of custom support for Windows XP The custom support contract appears to be on a rolling 3 year term If the above costs for custom support of Windows 2000 are to be considered and reinforced with analyst and media commentary a reasonable estimate of custom support costs emerges: Year 1 costs are $200 per device. If any Windows XP devices are present after this: Year 2 costs are $400 per device Year 3 costs are $1000 per device A more efficient, faster, cheaper approach: Instead of spending potentially millions of dollars in the dead money of custom support costs, AppSense offers a better way to migrate; faster and cheaper. This allows organizations to channel the funds they would have spent on support into increasing the velocity and success of their migration project in addition to strategically utilizing the same technology to them optimize their new Windows 7 environment.

5 Common challenges of a Windows migration A poll in a recent Ovum webinar revealed that 54% of respondents saw complexity as the biggest barrier to successful roll-out and adoption of Windows 7 as managing multiple variables across various devices for thousands of users can be complex, without correct planning or solutions in place. The migration from Windows XP to Windows 7 is fraught with challenges; technical, logistical and operational challenges involved, including among many others: The large investment in applications that need to be assessed and planned for The complexity of remediating application compatibility issues The expense of migrating user data and settings The endpoint devices are often massively distributed, often across an entire country in various locations. User downtime during the day is not possible. Migrations must occur after hours typically at higher hourly contract rates. The complexity of including desktop virtualization and optimization as part of the project Forrester TEI study validates AppSense cost savings In March 2012, AppSense commissioned Forrester Consulting to independently examine the total economic impact and potential return on investment (ROI) enterprises may realize by deploying AppSense technologies for various use cases, this included Windows 7 migrations. The results are published in the paper Forrester Total Economic Impact of the AppSense Management Suite on December In-depth interviews with existing customers of various deployment sizes ranging from 2,800 to 20,000 users, across various industry sectors including Petrochemical, Education, Retail and Healthcare. The financial analysis found that a composite organization based on these companies experienced the risk-adjusted ROI, costs, and benefits shown in below: Table 1 Composite 2500 seat Organization Three-Year Risk Adjusted ROI 1 ROI 284% Payback period 5 months Source: Forrester Research, Inc. Total benefits (PV) $2,399,016 Total costs (PV) ($625,095) Forrester found that project-based cost savings can be realized for the migration from Windows XP to Windows 7, as well as physical to virtual migrations. With many experiencing reductions in the following areas: Number of contractors required to help cover IT service delivery and helpdesk while existing fulltime IT staff focused on the Windows migration. Time spent analysing existing desktops and migrating user settings. Travel required between locations during migration phases. Reduction in post migration support calls, user downtime and costs. Net present value $1,773,921 Capital expenditure for hardware and application license requirements

6 A People-Centric Windows migration AppSense works with what you have today to seamlessly, without downtime or interruption, decouple the user persona and data from the Windows XP desktop and move this to the new Windows 7 or 8 desktop or tablet. This significantly reduces operational support costs to migrate the user and eliminates the hours of costly data migration using rudimentary tools and technologies. Best of all, the first time the user logs on to their new Windows 7 desktop, all their data and applications are exactly where they left it. This eliminates the post-deployment support issues often associated with desktop migration. Embracing a people-centric strategy enables IT to become more flexible by removing the need to manage at the device, platform or application level. This gives both IT and employees greater freedom of choice, while retaining control over what is delivered and how it is used. Among many things, managing the user independently from the specific devices and desktops they use enables: Freedom of choice - selecting technology without compromising employee experience Consumerization - empower employees to use their own tools to get their jobs done True IT-as-a-Service - managing and delivering desktop components as needed Device independence - ensure an optimum employee experience across all devices An end to migration - never again migrate users to new platforms - they re already there Microsoft validation AppSense user virtualization is used in some of the largest organizations in the world and is validated by Microsoft as part of your Windows 7 migration strategy. Microsoft acknowledge the importance of a people-centric computing as part of an enterprise Windows 7 migration strategy. As a Microsoft Gold ISV Partner and the sole exclusive Microsoft Desktop Enablement Partner for user personalization, AppSense are committed to leverage our close working relationship with Microsoft for the benefit of our thousands of joint enterprise customers. Microsoft validates AppSense s approach AppSense s people-centric approach to IT services, in combination with its innovative and proven technology, enables our customers to separate users from the operating system and manage them independently across all our Microsoft platforms, both physical, and virtual. This enables IT to move IT estates to Windows 7 or 8. Our customers benefit greatly from working with our Desktop Enablement Partners, especially when moving to the latest version of Windows in the coming months. David Rodger, Windows Client Commercial Lead at Microsoft UK

7 Conclusion Customers validation AppSense s approach By taking a people-centric approach with AppSense, we migrate three times as many desktops per day using the same level of IT resource, more importantly, no disruption to our staff. Our investment in AppSense will continue to pay dividends when we migrate to future operating systems beyond Windows 7 having already virtualized our users, we will continue to receive the same or improved benefits in terms of speed, reduced cost and complexity and a better user experience. Ian Cawson, Technical Architect at The Co-operative Group. AppSense delivered the exact solution we needed to confidently migrate to Windows 7 without affecting the user experience. What AppSense has provided us with is a pain-free end user migration, additionally it future proofs our design. Jake Muszynski at Nationwide Children s Hospital. With AppSense our users were fully supported in the transition and ensure it was a smooth process. AppSense are the experts. We could not have transitioned to Windows 7 so smoothly without their support Paul Bassett - Manager of Information Communication Technologies, Santos. AppSense enables us to deliver to our staff and student body during the migration phase and beyond AppSense will facilitate a shift to a more usercentric model that not only supports our current needs, but also provides the means for IT to enable a strategic transformation of the ICT infrastructure in the future Rob Arnold, Head of Customer IT Support at University of Birmingham Microsoft is ending extended support for Windows XP on April 8th After this date customers have two choices: 1. Pay for an expensive custom support agreement 2. Take the business risk with no patches to prevent Windows XP compromise or attack In the former choice, custom support agreements are excruciatingly high and designed to force organizations to migrate. In the latter choice, (which AppSense has also produced a whitepaper titled Windows XP EoL: The risk of not migrating ), the security risk is significant and serious. Unfortunately this is yet another Y2K moment that demands a response. AppSense can help. AppSense s solutions are proven by customers around the world to help accelerate the migration process and delivers a 284% ROI with a 5 month payback. The migration savings that AppSense offers and the post migration desktop optimization, in combination with the staggering custom support costs are often more than enough to justify the immediate investment towards the migration. For more information or to contact us please visit our website at i Microsoft Windows 2000 Custom Support for the Mayor of London Office for Policing and Crime, July 2012 ii Gartner: Custom Support Will Be Available for Windows XP at a Price. 16th January G Michael A. Silver, Stephen Kleynhans iii Microsoft gooses Windows XP s custom support prices as deadline nears. ComputerWorld.com, Gregg Keizer. Feb 21st 2013

8 appsense.com us: About AppSense AppSense, the people-centric computing company, is the leading provider of user virtualization technology that transforms organizations into productive mobile workforces securely governed by IT. AppSense enables companies to embrace consumerization in the enterprise by independently managing all aspects of the user experience across mobile devices and desktops. Our user virtualization technology reduces IT complexity and improves the deployment, management and migration of multiplatform desktop and mobile environments. The company is headquartered in New York, NY with offices around the world. For more information visit , AppSense Limited. AppSense is a registered trademark of AppSense Limited in the US, UK and other countries worldwide. All rights reserved. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. The information in this document is believed to be correct at time of printing but no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.