Between Two Fires America s wildland fire scene since 1960

Transcription

1 Between Two Fires America s wildland fire scene since 1960 Steve Pyne Arizona State University

2 U.S. Forest Service Era of suppression and hegemony Breakup and reassembly Era of restoration and pluralism The next century to be determined whenever

3 On average, one fire guard for every 670 square miles Gifford Pinchot (1910) In the early days of forest fires, they were considered simply and solely as acts of God, against which any opposition was hopeless and any attempt to control them not merely hopeless but childish. It was assumed that they came in the natural order of things, as inevitably as the seasons or the rising and setting of the sun. Today, we understand that forest fires are wholly within the control of man Then in January, 1910 Pinchot forced President Taft to fire him.

4 1910 America s Fires of Reference the Big Blowup

5 An American Way of Fire Call-ups, money, the firefight as set-piece of management

6 The An Big American Blowup Way of Fire Costs and controversies

7 The Saga of Ed Pulaski

8 1910 America s Fires of Reference the Big Blowup light burning

9 Fire policy as proxy for control over forestry and state-sponsored conservation Light Burning

10 Fire policy as proxy for control over forestry and state-sponsored conservation Aldo Leopold (1920) The Forest Service policy of absolutely preventing forest fires insofar as humanly possible is directly threatened by the light-burning propaganda Interagency politics - R.H. Ballinger Pinchot No third choice. Light Burning

11 Institutionalizing the Big Blowup Four Generations of Chief Foresters Henry Graves ( ) William Greeley ( ) Robert Stuart ( ) Ferdinand Silcox ( )

12 1910 America s Fires of Reference the Big Blowup marching as to war light burning

13 Moral equivalent of war William James The philosophy and activist politics of the Progressive Era

14 x$ State Cooperators Lands (10,000 ac) Clarke-McNary Act Fire Protection Expenditures 0 Weeks Act Cooperative Fire Creating a national infrastructure States States Federal Private Federal Private

15 Initial Attack - technology and tenacity

16 Fire Fanaticism To the last smoke A world before OSHA

17 The Burning Backcountry Fires remote in space and time

18 A Tree Army Prepares to Fight

19 The Ponderosa Way 1935: the 10 am policy The CCC A Tree Army Prepares to Fight Means Become Ends

20 The Forester s Policy The First Forester

21 Air and Armor the Cold War on fire

22 The Red Menace fire and national security Maine (1947) Bel Air - Brentwood (1961)

23 By 1960 prevention programs research model agency policy U.S. Forest Service indispensable institution fire as government monopoly professional authority suppression resources states and agencies

24 U.S. Forest Service Era of fire suppression and agency hegemony Breakup and reassembly Era of fire restoration and experimental pluralism Public domain ~ from multiple-use melting pot to special-interests mosaic

25 Fire Revolution The new geography of American fire Bicoastal & Bipolar

26 Fire Revolution The new geography of American fire Bicoastal & Bipolar Florida model - working landscapes - mixed private, public - Prescribed fire TTRS TNC FWS FL DoF

27 Fire Revolution The new geography of American fire Bicoastal & Bipolar Critics had common cause against a suppression juggernaut, but were not reconciled among themselves NPS California model - wild landscapes - public lands - natural fire USFS FWS Alaska

28 America s Great Cultural Revolution on Fire Era of Fragmentation, Redefinition, and Reintegration Contributing factors - ecology, economics, politics - but mostly a revolution in values Regime change Institutional separate agencies, private & public Environmental movement Rechartered agencies Demography and workforce Intellectual fire as useful, fire as necessary Reintegration common policy, pluralism of practice

29 The Fire Revolution 1960s Spark A Chronology Revolution begins 1962 ~ Tall Timbers fire ecology conference ~ Nature Conservancy s first burn 1963 ~ Leopold Report (NPS) 1964 ~ Wilderness Act 1967 ~ Adjustments to 10 am policy 1968 ~ NPS adopts new policy The torch has passed to a new generation. - President John F. Kennedy (1961)

30 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s Spark Hotline A Chronology A revolution from above 1970 ~ Boise Interagency Fire Center ~ Natural fire programs 1973 ~ USFS - Fire Management 1974 ~ DoI Fire by prescription policy Fire as land mgmt Total mobility 1976 ~ Natl Wildfire Coordinating Group 1977 ~ NPS-18 manual 1978 ~ U.S. Forest Service (wholesale reforms) 1980 ~ Alaska lands act

31 The Fire Revolution A Chronology Policy of fire by prescription confine contain control Wildfire options Prescribed fire Natural fire (PNF)

32 The Fire Revolution 1960 s Spark 1970 s Hotline 1980s Holding A Chronology The lost decade, and more Polarization - weather, politics, civilian and military Environmentalist blowback Few fires, then big fires

33 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology The lost decade, and more Polarization - weather, politics, civilian and military Environmentalist blowback Few fires, then big fires wildland-urban interface urban emergency services Counterrevolution

34 The The Fire Fire Revolution Revolution 1960s Spark 1970s A Chronology Hotline 1980s Holding A Chronology The Big Blowout The lost decade, and more Polarization - weather, politics, civilian and military Environmentalist blowback Few fires, then big fires wildland-urban interface 1988 Counterrevolution ~ Yellowstone fires - educated the public - lost opportunity for American fire community

35 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s Night shift ( )

36 The Political Fire analogue Revolution to 3-year cycle of 1960s 1970s 1980s postfire recovery Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s Multiplying tasks Night & agencies shift ( ) GAO analysis Workforce demographics Reboot of natural fire programs Review of federal fire policy (1991)

37 The Political Fire analogue Revolution to 3-year cycle of 1960s 1970s 1980s postfire recovery Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s Multiplying tasks Night & agencies shift ( ) GAO analysis Workforce demographics Reboot of natural fire programs Review of federal fire policy (1991)

38 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s Slopover Fire revolution 2.0 ( )

39 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s Slopover Fire revolution 2.0 ( ) ~ Era of celebrity fires Southern California (1993) threshhold year (1994) West and Southwest (1996) Florida (1998) Northern Rockies (2000) All Over the West (2002) Southern California (2003)

40 annus mirabilis, annus horribilis (1994) Southern California fire siege (1993) onset of subprime fire era Howling fire (1994) proof of concept (WFU) prescribed fires, natural and otherwise South Canyon (1994) Friendly Fire fire s Mogadishu moment

41 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s Slopover Fire revolution 2.0 ( ) ~ Era of celebrity fires 1994 ~ catalytic year

42 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s Slopover Fire revolution 2.0 ( ) ~ Era of celebrity fires 1994 ~ catalytic year 1998 ~ reorganization Sec. Babbitt declares national fire crisis

43 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s 2000s Slopover Blowup Catalyst (1994) Consequence (2000) Wildfire (Northern Rockies) Prescribed fire (Cerro Grande)

44 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s 2000s Slopover Blowup The Great Scramble ( ) National Fire Plan Era of megafire Era of metafire Era of megabucks

45 The Fire Revolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Spark Hotline Holding A Chronology 1990s 2000s Slopover Blowup 2010s Burn out Reconstitution ( ) 2008 ~ AMR - policy guidelines 2009 ~ FLAME Act ~ Cohesive Strategy

46 U.S. Forest Service Era of hegemony Breakup and reassembly Era of experimental pluralism The next century to be determined whenever

47 Challenges Pyromancy America doesn t have a fire problem... it has many fire problems If any single agency tries to absorb the whole, it will fall apart

48 Challenges Politics Replacement for Weeks Act ~ renegotiation of American federal system for fire From interagency to and to non-governmental intergovernmental

49 Challenges Growth of a civil society for fire Politics Replacement for Weeks Act ~ renegotiation of American federal system for fire From interagency to and to non-governmental intergovernmental The Nature Conservancy significant presence in American fire community

50 Challenges Politics Replacement for Weeks Act ~ renegotiation of American federal system for fire Fire s euro moment austerity or investment integrate break up bailouts without end From interagency to and to non-governmental intergovernmental

51 Challenges Climate change Taking away some flexibility just as loss of rural land abolished a buffer, so is climate change

52 Challenges Climate change Global warming as subnarrative of fire history Would still have serious fire problems if stayed within historic climate driverless car

53 Parsing the interaction Fire at Grand Canyon Warm 2006

54 acres burned acres burned Parsing the interaction Fire at Grand Canyon climate land use fire practices Warm 2006 GRCA burned area faith-based ecology? s 1970s 1980s 1990s Suppression Burned area Rx all fire causes Fire use

55 Total acres in thousands - - Expenditures in $millions - Challenges Science Total US Wildfire Acres , and USFS Fire Expenditures ,000 2,500 10,000 2,000 8,000 1,500 6,000 4,000 2,000 1, Science informs, management applies 0 Fire publications WoS Komarek

56 Total acres in thousands - - Expenditures in $millions - Challenges Science Total US Wildfire Acres , and USFS Fire Expenditures ,000 2,500 10,000 2,000 8,000 1,500 6,000 4,000 2,000 1, Culture trumps science Science informs, management applies 0 Fire publications WoS Komarek

57 Challenges Land use & polarization vestal fires & virgin lands the wild the urban sprawl meets fire

58 Challenges Land use & polarization vestal fires & virgin lands From interface as feature to informing principle the wild coming apart the urban sprawl meets fire

59 Houses Burned burned houses Structures lost Average number of structures burned yearly by decade Environmental matter and anti-matter 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s WUI Losses WUI Losses ( ) (by state) wildlands to city, city to wildlands WA TX-OK CO NM FL AK AZ CA CA AZ TX-OK AK FL NM CO A California pathology

60 Defining the problem: the urban urban fire analogy exurban enclaves with troubled landscaping urban fire services all-hazard emergency response vs. land management

61 Challenges Defining the problem: the wild working landscapes for ecological goods and services, not commodities megafires the 1% in nature s fire economy - our fire plutocracy

62 Strategies Regressive Western public lands (1) Regress - exclude and suppress

63 Strategies Western public lands Regressive Proactive (2) Pro-act change context Harden assets, make vulnerable landscapes resilient FireWise Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Act (2009)

64 Strategies Western public lands Regressive Proactive Reactive rockscissorspaper (3) Re-act accept context Not restoration, not desired future conditions, not applied science Big Box burning, point protection, rebuild landscapes out of burns

65 Challenges Narratives 50th anniversary Need to recalibrate our chronology and narrative Resistance Restoration Resilience

66 2012 Lightning fire Large fires Census 1880 America s Evolving Pyrogeography A mixed economy of fire a complex narrative

67 Challenges Placing ourselves

68 Challenges Placing ourselves Missing Middle Fire s Clash of Civilizations

69 they shall go out from one fire, and another fire shall devour them. Ezekiel 15:7 Thinking outside the triangle The future will find us passing between fires as we have always had to do only the fires change

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