Do we know the cost of fires? An example from California, USA

Transcription

1 Do we know the cost of fires? An example from California, USA Armando González lez-cabán, Ph.D. USDA Forest Service,Pacific Southwest Research Station, 4955 Canyon Crest Drive, Riverside, CA Phone ; Fax

2 Do we know the cost of fires? Area Burned Suppression costs Year (million hectares) ($ million) % % Total

3 Do we know the cost of fires? Source: National Interagency Fire Center Wildland Fire Statistics and the USFS Wildland Fire Management budget FY FY2008 (as of 11/04/2008). 3

4 Do we know the cost of fires? Fire Damage Assessment 1. Fire damages difficult to determine 2. Biological and physical effects 3. Damages = cost of restoring resource plus economic value lost 4

5 Do we know the cost of fires? 4. Nonmarket values include nonuse values 5. Excluding nonuse values = damages underestimation 5

6 Do we know the cost of fires? Economic Costs Bequest Option Existence Use Nonuse Commercial Non Commercial Financial Costs 6

7 Do we know the cost of fires? 6. Fire Damages Tangibles: - expressed in monetary terms - based on or derived from : actual or simulated prices restoration or replacement costs 7

8 Do we know the cost of fires? Intangibles: - not completely measurable - difficult to include in the analysis - recognized as having real value 8

9 Do we know the cost of fires? VALUING FIRE LOSSES 1. Economic value of: property goods Services 9

10 Do we know the cost of fires? 2. Restore to a pre-fire condition Net Concept: the net change in the situation or condition caused by the fire 10

11 Do we know the cost of fires? 3. Amenities continuum Woods-- Forage-Recreation Recreation--Hunting--wildlife -- Water -- Air-- Arch. sites-- --T&ES Market NonMarket 11

12 Do we know the cost of fires? Fire Damage Components Valuing process should include: - immediate effects - long term effects - all relevant resources 12

13 Do we know the cost of fires? 1. Commercial timber and other goods losses Valuing process should include : - changes in quantity and quality - value of changes in production level 13

14 Do we know the cost of fires? Use the Present Value (PV) of damaged timber: PV damage = PV PV affected - Salvaged 14

15 Do we know the cost of fires? Present Value of stand with and without fire: PV damage = PV PV without fire fire PV PV with fire 15

16 Do we know the cost of fires? 2. Productivity Losses Most important fire effect: - destruction of the increasing stock of immature timber Determine economic loss based on the present value of the standing timber at their harvesting rotation 16

17 Do we know the cost of fires? 3. Destruction and Damage of Property Direct: - any improvement or permanent - anything considered part of the land 17

18 Do we know the cost of fires? Indirect: - loss of property use - occur over several years - property is replaced or restored to pre-fire conditions 18

19 Do we know the cost of fires? 4. Environmental Values Two types: - environmental amenities - life support 19

20 Do we know the cost of fires? 5. Effects on Watersheds changes in water regime off site effects 20

21 Do we know the cost of fires? 6. Agriculture Crops Losses = Replanting costs x Hectares Burned + Expected Yield Losses x Price x Hectares Burned 21

22 Do we know the cost of fires? 7. Effects on Wildlife, Recreation and Landscape Fires affect forest characteristics: - affect the potential amenities and product values - effects could be severe or non existent 22

23 Do we know the cost of fires? An Economic Fire Damage Assessment Process Requires: Identification of all goods and services produced Determination of how the Q & Q are affected Evaluation of the value of reduction in goods and services Estimation of the changes in flows 23

24 Do we know the cost of fires? An Example 24

25 What is the True Cost of Wildfires? Based on a Report Of the Old, Grand Prix/Padua Fires By Alex E. Dunn in collaboration with Dr. Armando González lez-cabán

26 Traditional Fire Costs Suppression Costs Personnel Equipment Engines Aircraft Dozers Material Retardant Food Tools Hired Equipment

27 Traditional Fire Costs Human Costs Life Safety Public Evacuation Injury/Death First Responders Injury and Death Firefighters Law Enforcement

28 Traditional Fire Costs Damage Costs Property Homes Businesses Out Buildings Infrastructure Bridges Roadways Electrical grid

29 Traditional Fire Impacts Fatal Fires result in: Training Impacts New Equipment Policy Shifts Legal scrutiny Mandates

30 Old, Grand Prix/Padua Fires True Costs True Fire Costs $1,276,933,233.75

31 Old, Grand Prix/Padua Fires True Costs True Fire Costs $1,276,933, Suppression Costs $61,335, Or just 4.8%

32 Old, Grand Prix/Padua Fires True Costs True Fire Costs $1,276,933, Suppression Costs 4.8% Insured/Uninsured Loss $576,171, %

33 Old, Grand Prix/Padua Fires True Costs True Fire Costs $1,276,933, Suppression Costs 4.8% Insured/Uninsured Loss Edison Loss $100,000,000 Or 7.83%

34 Old, Grand Prix/Padua Fires True Costs True Fire Costs $1,276,933, Suppression Costs 4.8% Insured/Uninsured Loss Edison Loss Non Profit $4,832,148 Or 0.38%

35 Old, Grand Prix/Padua Fires True Costs True Fire Costs $1,276,933, Suppression Costs 4.8% Insured/Uninsured Loss Edison Loss Non Profit Watershed Recovery $534,593, Or 41.87%

36 True Fire Costs Life loss Fire Four deaths elderly residents that suffered heart attacks during the time of evacuation Christmas Day Floods Two separate incidents that resulted in sixteen deaths One small child was not found for days, buried in the mud and debris flow

37 True Fire Costs Wildfires continue to impact communities on multiple scales: Local: physical and emotional trauma, direct losses in the form of property destroyed Losses of ability to generate income Business disruption Health effects

38 True Fire Costs Wildfires continue to impact communities on multiple scales: Regional: Down-river water quality costs occurring in neighboring counties Air Quality

39 True Fire Costs Wildfires continue to impact communities on multiple scales: National: $576 million in claims to insurance carriers $45 million spent by FEMA Ripple effects in national economy

40 True Fire Costs Decreasing the severity of wildfires can benefit communities far away from the wildfire. These communities may not understand their stake in wildfire severity reduction strategies or the benefits they realize.

41 True Fire Costs Wildfires can create: Severe socio- economic effects in ecosystems people depend on; Severe bio-physical effects that in turn produce socio- economic effects; Long-term effects that impact ecosystems for years.

42 True Fire Costs

43 True Fire Costs Water is California s s most important natural resource Northern 1/3 of state produces 70 % of runoff Southern 2/3 of state uses 80% Average available water is 71 million Acre Feet- range is million acre feet Sierra Snow Pack is 25% of normal: equates to million acre feet

44 True Fire Costs Real costs not captured: Investigation, Trial, and incarceration Transportation corridors; business closures Evacuation, Smoke Agriculture Fiscal impacts on evacuees; Lost recreation opportunities; Loss of ecosystem services Ecological system function values

45 Fire Frequency/Intensity Feedback Loop Housing Costs have skyrocketed People are moving further out into WUI Rate of Development in WUI is three times the rate outside the WUI Housing market correction

46 A Little Heresy Is Good For Your Soul Embrace with your inner firefighter Societies choose failure or success Cognitive dissonance and rigidity Inferno and Purgatorio Societal behavior and response to impacts of decisions

47 Fire Frequency/Intensity Feedback Loop Multi generational Extended families Costs of housing overcoming cultural concept of single family Increased draw on state s s watershed impacting watershed health

48 Fire Frequency/Intensity Feedback Loop Increased human activity equates to an increase in fire starts whether intentional or accidental

49 Fire Frequency/Intensity Feedback Loop More people are at risk in a wildfire and in need of evacuation evacuation needs often force loss of or compromise perimeter control options. Rhode

50 Fire Frequency/Intensity Feedback Loop Homes are regularly built or re-built in harm s s way despite historic evidence of danger Of the 280 homes lost in the 1980 Panorama Fire 230 were lost again in the 2003 Old Fire

51 Fire Frequency/Intensity Recent studies show a causal link between climate change and fire frequency All fires are a spontaneous release of sequestered carbon Released carbon contributes to greenhouse gas effect and climate change Feedback Loop

52 Suppression Breaking the Loop Increase capacity Prevention Ember resistant building standards (2008) Intervention Watershed Health Forest Health Climate Change Opportunities!!!!!

53 Do we know the cost of fires? Thanks! 53