Presidential Approval Rating

Transcription

1 Presidential Approval Rating January 6, 2015 Findings 1. How satisfied are you with President Ashraf Ghani s performance? %! 30.4%! Very!sa4sfied! Moderately! sa4sfied! Not!sa4sfied! Figure 1: Nationwide findings January 2015 Slightly more than one quarter (27.5%) of the population is very satisfied with the performance of President Ashraf Ghani after his first 100 days in office, a stark fall from the 59.9% who reported being very satisfied following the President s first month in office. Approximately 30% (30.4%) of the population is moderately satisfied with the performance of President Ashraf Ghani. The largest proportion of the population (32.0%) report that they are not satisfied with the performance of President Ashraf Ghani. One tenth of respondents have no opinion about the president s performance.! 1!

2 Sample and methodology ATR Consulting randomly called 2448 people across all 34 provinces of the country and asked the following question provided by Tolo News: How satisfied are you with President Ashraf Ghani s performance? The respondents could select only one out of four possible answers: Very satisfied, Moderately satisfied, Not satisfied at all or I do not know / No opinion. The survey took place between 27 th December 2014 and 3 rd January 2015 in Kabul. ATR utilized an algorithm to generate more than 20 million phone numbers at random. Mobile numbers were filtered on regional codes to filter and target regions. Surveyors then worked through the list to determine which numbers were attributed, interviewing those respondents who were willing to give their feedback. To ensure the highest possible degree of access to female respondents, all surveyors were women. The delivery of questions was such as to be as impartial as possible, and negate any opportunities for surveyors to lead the respondent or have a bearing on results in any way. All respondents were read the question with the exact wording including the four possible answers. The confidence level is 95 percent. The margin of error for each category is shown in the chart below: Demographic Sample Size Margin of Error (+/- %) TOTAL Men Women Rural Urban Below Above Kabul City Central Region (incl. Kabul City) Northern Region Eastern Region Southern Region Western Region Table 1: Sample size and margin of error by demographic Given that it is more challenging to reach women through phone in Afghanistan than men, a quota was applied for men and women in each region (70% men and 30% women). Results were then weighted first within each region to ensure equal representation of male and female respondents (50/50). Nationwide results were then reached by weighting results by region according to the national population distribution. * Detailed Findings CONTEXT This survey took place following President Ashraf Ghani s first 100 days in office. It is the second in a series of surveys of public perceptions of President Ghani s performance; the first took place after the president had been in office for one month, and the third is scheduled to take place after the president s first 200 days in office.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! * All population data is taken from the Afghan Central Statistics Office 2012 data! 2!

3 REGIONAL RESULTS Central Region Northern Region Eastern Region Southern Region Western Region including Bamyan, Daikundi, Kabul, Kapisa, Logar, Panjsher, Parwan and Wardak including Badakhshan, Baghlan, Balkh, Faryab, Jawzjan, Kunduz, Samangan, Sar-i Pul and Takhar including Khost, Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktya and Paktika, including Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Nimroz, Uruzgan and Zabul including Badghis, Farah, Ghor and Herat! 3!

4 Presiden(al+Approval+Ra(ng+by+Region+ Kabul! Central! North! East! South! West! %! 34.1%! 22.6%! %! 12.1%! 36.8%! 30.2%! 31.1%! %! 29.8%! 40.9%! 40.5%! 35.6%! 32.3%! 26.9%! 22.1%! 16.7%! 10.2%! 11.7%! 8.9%! 8.5%! 6.8%! Very!sa4sfied! Moderately!sa4sfied! Not!sa4sfied!! 4!

5 Presiden(al+Approval+Ra(ng+by+ Gender+ Male! Female! 30.5%! 34.6%! %! 29.3%! 10.9%! 9.1%! Very!sa3sfied! Moderately! sa3sfied! Not!sa3sfied! Presiden(al+Approval+Ra(ng+by+ Se6lement+(Rural/Urban)++ Rural! Urban! 30.7%! 35.5%! 28.8%! 30.7%! 35.9%! 17.4%! 9.6%! 11.2%! Very!sa3sfied! Moderately!sa3sfied! Not!sa3sfied!! 5!

6 2. How hopeful are you about cooperation between Ashraf Ghani & Abdullah Abdullah? %! %! 11.3%! 20.3%! 11.6%! Very!hopeful! Moderately! hopeful! LiHle!hopeful! Not!hopeful! Figure 2: Nationwide findings January 2014 Approximately one third (32.5%) of the population is very hopeful that the heads of the National Unity Government President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah will be able to cooperate. Approximately one quarter (24.2%) of the population is moderately hopeful that the heads of the National Unity Government can cooperate. 20.3% of the population are not hopeful that the heads of the National Unity Government will be able to cooperate.! 6!

7 Coopera'on)between)leaders)of)the)NUG) Kabul! Central! North! East! South! West! %! 32.1%! %! %! 25.9%! 24.3%! 24.7%! 24.2%! 22.3%! 21.8%! 19.5%! 18.1%! 18.9%! 13.5%! 16.2%! 12.8%! 14.2%! 14.7%! 13.4%! 13.8%! 14.2%! 12.2%! 10.8%! 9.8%! 10.4%! 8.4%! 4.9%! Very!hopeful! Moderately!hopeful! Li>le!hopeful! Not!hopeful!! 7!

8 Coopera'on)between)the)leaders)of)the)NUG) by)gender) Male! Female! 36.4%! 28.6%! 24.9%! 23.6%! 24.3%! 11.7%! 16.4%! 11.9%! %! Very!hopeful! Moderately! hopeful! Li=le!hopeful! Not!hopeful! Coopera'on)between)the)leaders)of)the) NUG)by)se7lement)(Rural/Urban))) Rural! Urban! %! Very!hopeful! 24.3%! 24.1%! Moderately! hopeful! 25.7%! 16.6%! 18.7%! 15.6%! 9.7%! 10.4%! Li=le!hopeful! Not!hopeful!! 8!

9 3. Among the following references which one do you think best describes the Taliban? %! %! 12.9%! %! 1 Angry! brothers! PoliJcal! opposijon! Enemies!of! the!state! Terrorists! Figure 4: Nationwide findings January 2014 Approximately one fifth (19.0%) of the population believe that enemies of the state is the most appropriate description for the Taliban. Approximately one sixth (15.3%) of the population believe that angry brothers is the most appropriate description for the Taliban, whilst a similar proportion (16.3%) believe that terrorists is the most fitting description for the Taliban. The smallest proportion of respondents (12.9%) believe that the Taliban should be referred to as political opposition.! 9!

10 Appropriate)Descrip-ons)of)the)Taliban)by)Region) Kabul! Central! North! East! South! West! %! 19.1%! 13.1%! 11.8%! 11.1%! 8.8%! 16.7%! 12.7%! 15.1%! 12.4%! 11.3%! 10.3%! 26.7%! 24.5%! 22.5%! 21.8%! 21.8%! 21.2%! 20.1%! 12.7%! 14.8%! 12.2%! 12.9%! 9.2%! 42.5%! 39.6%! 40.6%! 31.3%! 27.6%! 30.2%! Angry!brothers! Poli<cal!opposi<on! Enemies!of!the!state! Terrorists!! 10!

11 Appropriate)Descrip-ons)of)the)Taliban)by)Gender) Male! Female! 17.7%! 12.8%! 13.2%! 12.5%! 19.2%! 18.7%! 18.6%! 13.9%! 42.1%! 31.1%! Angry!brothers! Poli<cal! opposi<on! Enemies!of!the! state! Terrorists! Appropriate)Descrip-ons)of)the)Taliban)by)Se8lement) (Rural/Urban)) Rural! Urban! 16.6%! 10.9%! 13.2%! 12.8%! 24.4%! 22.6%! 17.3%! 14.3%! %! Angry!brothers! Poli<cal! opposi<on! Enemies!of!the! state! Terrorists! TOLOnews commissioned ATR consulting to conduct a series of presidential approval ratings throughout the first year of President Ashraf Ghani s presidency. ATR is an Afghan consulting firm operating in Kabul since The detailed methodology is available on ATR Consulting s website. For all enquiries about the methodology and phone survey, contact polling@tolonews.com! 11!