How Will Environmental Challenges Drive the Industry?

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1 How Will Environmental Challenges Drive the Industry?

2 Introduction The Problem Proposal Status Quo of the Proposal Examples The Airline Perspective The Manufacturer Perspective Outlook

3 Introduction Aviation Impacts the Environment: Noise CO 2 Carbon Dioxide NO X Nitrogen Oxide SO X Sulfur Dioxide H 2 O Water

4 The Problem Kyoto Protocol: Obligation of the parties to pursue limitation or reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases... from aviation... through the International Civil Aviation Organization.... It s a joint effort: Regulators (EU Commission and US Administration) ICAO Airlines Airports Airframe & Engine Manufacturers

5 The Problem

6 The Problem

7 mba morten beyer & agnew The Problem

8 44% mba morten beyer & agnew The Problem Percentages of Overall CO2 Emissions 18% 13% 11% 6% 3% 3% 1% 1% Automobiles Households Manufacturing Service Industry Maritime Industry Aviation Agriculture Others Energy Production

9 The Proposal The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Airlines must possess allowances for their total annual emissions Benchmark is the average total annual emissions of the operator in Airlines are assigned a specific number of free allowances Airlines not requiring all of their allowances may sell them Airlines requiring additional allowance will have to buy them The market place is the ETS with other industries also participating, i.e. energy

10 The Proposal EU Commission Proposal - Amendment to ETS Directive 2003/87/EC ETS to cover all intra EU operations ETS to cover all operations in the EU territory Majority of allowances initially free of charge Allocation of 100 percent of benchmark years EU Parliament Position ETS to cover all operations in the EU territory 25 percent of allowances to be auctioned Allocation of 90 percent of benchmark years EU Council Common Position ETS to cover all operations in the EU territory 10 percent of allowances to be auctioned Exemptions for new entrants, operators with minimal traffic flows

11 EU Parliament / EU Council legislative process concluded mba morten beyer & agnew Status Quo early 2009: Publication of the directive Transposal into 27 national laws Implementation (within twelve months of publication) ETS to cover all operations to / from / within EU territory Majority of allowances initially free of charge Allocation of 100 percent of benchmark years Exemptions: Carriers with less than 2 daily flights Carriers with less than 10,000 tons CO2 emissions per year Flights within the outermost regions of the EU

12 Let s assume: total industry produced 5,400 RPK in a year 4 airlines total free CO 2 allowances available to airlines: 90 Example 1 Airline I 1,000 RPK 18 percent Airline II 500 RPK 9 percent Airline III 500 RPK 9 percent Airline IV 3,400 RPK 64 percent 90 free CO 2 allowances Airlines II and III receive the same number of allowances Airline II burns 60 tons of fuel (older, less efficient aircraft) Airline III burns 30 tons of fuel (newer, more efficient aircraft) allowances may have to buy extra allowances may not have to buy extra Source: IACA 2009

13 Example Example 2 Frankfurt Singapore Aircraft: A Capacity: 247 Pax Load factor: 80.5 percent Distance: km CO 2 emissions: tons Increase in operating costs to airline: Euro 5, Increase in fare per passenger: Euro Increase in cost per kilogram freight: Euro 0.14 Source: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. 2007

14 The Airline Perspective Realization among the industry that the issue cannot be ignored Programs implemented for voluntary passenger contributions so far without much success Carries take pro-active stance and have spoken out in favor of the ETS British Airlines Lufthansa Others see being environmentally friendly as a marketing tool Easy Jet is a green airline and has published an Environmental Charta Others point out the weaknesses no global approach trading scheme will be expensive increase in fares & weaker demand Low Cost Carriers point to alternatives increased efficiencies / high loads / high utilization modern aircraft fuel hedging programs

15 The Airline Perspective

16 The Manufacturer Perspective Looking for Alternatives General: greener productions more environmentally friendly materials leaner productions increased use of re-cycled materials Airbus: Test flights using liquid gases Boeing: Test flights using bio fuels Engine manufacturers: Development of more fuel efficient engines Development of new engine concepts

17 The Manufacturer Perspective 200% 180% 160% 140% growth in % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Passenger volume Efficiency improvement CO 2 emissions 0% Source: Deutsche Lufthansa 2007

18 The industry must take a pro-active approach Outlook Airlines need to prepare better emissions PricewaterhouseCoopers: lack of understanding of potential impact lack of strategic and financial planning only about 40 percent of airlines track Being green may translate into competitive advantage marketing tool improvement of risk component improved access to capital improved cost efficiencies - fuel - maintenance

19 Thank You Thank You

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