SOA 2013 Life & Annuity Symposium May 6-7, Session 28 PD, Life Protection Product Update. Moderator: Robert P.

Transcription

1 SOA 2013 Life & Annuity Symposium May 6-7, 2013 Session 28 PD, Life Protection Product Update Moderator: Robert P. Stone, FSA, MAAA Presenters: Jeremy Allen Bill, FSA, MAAA Elizabeth H. MacGowan, FSA, MAAA Robert P. Stone, FSA, MAAA Primary Competency External Forces & Industry Knowledge

2 1 Trends in the Term Insurance Marketplace Elizabeth MacGowan, VP Chief Life Product Officer National Life Group National Life Group is a trade name of National Life Insurance Company, Montpelier, VT, Life Insurance Company of the Southwest, Addison, TX and their affiliates. Each company of National Life Group is solely responsible for its own financial condition and contractual obligations. Life Insurance Company of the Southwest is not an authorized insurer in New York and does not conduct insurance business in New York. TC72995((0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 2 What we will discuss today Industry sales trends from LIMRA Term pricing environment High reserve requirements Declining interest rates Increasing longevity Regulatory changes Industry responses to the environment Use of captive reinsurance Market segmentation TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 1

3 3 Industry Sales Trends from LIMRA TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 4 Industry sales trends UL, 14% VUL, 1% Market share based on policy count Whole Life, 49% Term, 36% Over one-third of life insurance policies sold are term insurance Source: LIMRA s U.S. Individual Life Insurance Sales Survey and preliminary LIMRA estimates, 4 th Qurter 2012 TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 2

4 5 Industry sales trends UL, 40% Market share based on annualized premium VUL, 7% Term, 21% Whole Life, 32% Whereas market shares of other products have changed dramatically since the year 2000, term s market share has remained stable. Source: LIMRA s U.S. Individual Life Insurance Sales Survey and preliminary LIMRA estimates, 4 th Quarter 2012 TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 6 Industry sales trends Market Average Average Share Average Face Premium Based on Trend in Market Share Premium Amount per per Annualized per Policy Premium Policy Thousand Variable 7% Was 36% in 2000 $11,870 $556,311 $21.34 Universal Life Universal Life 40% Was 18% in 2000 $4,154 $296,146 $14.03 Whole Life 32% Was 23% in 2000 $1,238 $64,469 $19.21 Term 21% Was 23% in 2000 $923 $433,966 $2.13 Source: LIMRA s U.S. Individual Life Insurance Sales Survey and preliminary LIMRA estimates, 4 th Quarter 2012 TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 3

5 7 Industry sales trends 30% Term s Market Share Based on Annualized Premium 25% 20% % 10% 5% 0% Growth in : Buy term and invest the difference Source: LIMRA's U.S. Individual Life Insurance Sales Surveys, TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC Industry sales trends $2.80 $2.60 Average Premium per $1,000 on Term Policies : Term price wars $2.40 $2.20 $ Source: LIMRA's U.S. Individual Life Insurance Sales Surveys, TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC

6 9 Industry sales trends $1,000 Average Premium per Term Policy $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Average Premium Per Term Policy Average U.S. Household Income Relative to 1987 Average Premium Source: LIMRA's U.S. Individual Life Insurance Sales Surveys, , Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC Industry sales trends Recap Over one-third of life insurance policies sold are term insurance Market share and average premiums per $1,000 have held steady over the past decade Average premiums per term policy have generally tracked with U.S. household income TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 5

7 The Pricing Environment for Term Insurance TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC High reserve requirements Due to the reserving requirements of Regulation XXX, term insurance requires a relatively high amount of capital for an extended period of time. This makes capital financing a major issue when pricing term insurance. 12 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 XXX statutory reserves and required surplus on this block $1,000,000 Premium in force on a block of 10- and 20-year term policies $ Source: National Life Group calculations for illustrative purposes only, not indicative of any particular term plan TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 6

8 Declining interest rates Since writing term insurance builds up large reserves relative to the premium, there is a relationship between the earned rate available on investments versus the IRR (internal rate of return) profit goal that companies can expect to achieve in the marketplace. 13 When the 10-year Treasury rate was around 5%, a low double-digit IRR was possible. Today, with the 10-year Treasury around 2%, carriers are pricing for an IRR as low as 6% - 7%. Source: 2013 Yahoo, Inc. TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC Term insurance benefits from a long-term trend of declining mortality, but will the trend continue? And, as to how this applies to a block of business, consider that your clients have an anti-selection opportunity every time they receive a premium notice. 80 Increasing longevity Life expectancy at birth in the United States Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC

9 Regulatory changes 15 The industry has innovated in term insurance, but often an innovation has later resulted in regulatory changes to restrict the innovation. Innovation Lifetime renewability and unitary reserves Return of premium term Term-like UL Subsequent regulation and effective date Regulation XXX January 1, 2000 Actuarial Guideline 45 January 1, 2010 Modifications to Actuarial Guideline 38 January 1, 2013 TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 16 The pricing environment for term insurance Recap High reserve requirements make capital financing an issue Declining interest rates impact returns Increasing longevity must be considered in pricing Regulatory changes impact innovations TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 8

10 17 Industry Responses to the Environment TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC Captive reinsurance 18 Across the industry: 56% of life insurance is reinsured Source: SNL Financial s SNL Data Dispatch dated 11/26/2012 TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 9

11 Captive reinsurance 19 Across the industry: 56% of life insurance is reinsured 50% of that reinsurance is reinsurance ceded to affiliates Thus, 28% of all life insurance written is ceded as reinsurance to affiliates. Source: SNL Financial s SNL Data Dispatch dated 11/26/2012 TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC Captive reinsurance Most of the top life insurance carriers use captive reinsurers and have been expanding their use of them over the last five years. 20 Sales Rank Carrier Direct Premium in Billions (2011) % of Their Life Insurance Reinsured % of Their Reinsurance Ceded to Affiliates 1 MetLife % 72% 3 Prudential % 53% 6 Manulife % 34% 8 AEGON % 37% 11 AIG % 79% 13 AXA % 49% 14 Hartford % 38% 15 ING % 55% 16 Protective 2.6 Up from 85% Up from 32% 18 Pacific Mutual % 71% 36% 33% 19 Allstate 2.1 five years 67% five years 52% 20 Principal 2.0 earlier 42% earlier 35% Industry Total % 50% 2011 data, list of the twelve top 20 carriers with over 30% of their reinsurance ceded to affiliates Source: SNL Financial s SNL Data Dispatch dated 11/26/2012 TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 10

12 Captive reinsurance 21 Are regulatory changes on the way? Currently there is diversity in state treatment of captives, and not every state regulator agrees with the status quo. TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC Market segmentation 22 When we think of term insurance, we tend to think of it as a commodity: TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 11

13 Market segmentation 23 While that is generally true, some carriers have chosen to pursue niches in the market that may be characterized by: Relaxed underwriting requirements Emphasis on speed of policy issue Higher agent compensation Greater emphasis on riders that provide benefits while the insured is alive, such as disability income, critical illness, or return of premium benefits TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 24 Recap Over one-third of life insurance policies sold are term insurance The size of the term market has been remarkably stable High reserve requirements, declining interest rates, and regulatory changes have challenged the industry Carriers have responded by setting up captive reinsurers and pursuing market niches TC72995(0313) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC 12

14 Making Lives Better Life & Annuity Symposium 2013 Protection Product Update ULSG / AG38 Update Jeremy A. Bill, FSA, MAAA Vice President Product Development Midland National Life North American Company for Life and Health Agenda AG38 Background Summary of AG38 Changes Impact of AG38 Changes 2 1

15 Agenda AG38 Background Summary of AG38 Changes Impact of AG38 Changes 3 AG38 Background Consider these quotes: We have seen aggressiveness, creativity, and innovation in product design, as well as some blatant attempts to skirt the regulation..." "The purpose of the guideline is to provide direction as to the application of XXX to various product designs. It is not meant to address all possible designs, but rather, to give guidance as to the intent of XXX. 4 2

16 AG38 Background Source: Product Matters January 2002 Regulators Respond to Industry "Innovation" Through Guideline AXXX. 5 AG38 Background Brief History of AG38 Regulation XXX in 2000 Regulation AXXX in 2002 Specifically addressed Shadow Account CEO Compromise in July 2005 Same charges for Step 4 numerator and denominator Specific Premium Load for Shadow Account calculations l 6 3

17 AG38 Background Renewed Discussion in 2012 Concern over inadequate reserves and level playing field NAIC created a Joint Working Group to address Bifurcated approach adopted in September 2012 Separate rules for inforce and new business Effective Date of Agenda AG38 Background Summary of AG38 Changes Impact of AG38 Changes 8 4

18 Summary of AG38 Changes High Level view of Changes Section 8D Policies issued after but prior to Section 8E Policies issued after Summary of AG38 Changes Section 8D Inforce Policies Applies starting with reporting Additional reserve requirements Based on deterministic reserves from Valuation Manual Restrictions placed on investment earnings Additional documentation and reporting requirements 10 5

19 Summary of AG38 Changes Section 8E New Business Deals with how to calculate Minimum Premiums Determined at policy issue Used in calculating PV of future premiums Method 1 Certain Designs Can use zero to zero approach Special Certification required by Appointed Actuary and Company Officer Restriction on maximum policy credits Method 2 Other Designs Cannot use zero to zero approach Must look at multiple premium patterns 11 Summary of AG38 Changes Section 8E Method 1 Design # 1 Shadow Account with a single set of charges & credits Design # 2 Cumulative Premium Design with a single set of charges & credits Design # 3 Multiple sets of charges and / or credits Must use the set of charges in each year that produces the lowest premium (ignore any contingencies) 12 6

20 Summary of AG38 Changes Section 8E Method 1 Limitation on Policy Credits Policy credits shall not exceed Index plus 3% Index is the composite yield on seasoned corporate bonds as published by Moody s Averaging period chosen must be elected at time of filing and consistently used thereafter The monthly average for the month immediately prior to the date of the Actuarial Opinion -or- The 12-month average ending June 30 prior to the date of the Actuarial Opinion 13 Summary of AG38 Changes Section 8E Method 2 Use Minimum Premiums that produce the greatest deficiency reserves at issue Must look at level premium, increasing premium and combination Must also look at any other expected premium pattern All steps in reserve calculation must be adjusted to reflect the Minimum Premium assumed 14 7

21 Agenda AG38 Background Summary of AG38 Changes Impact of AG38 Changes 15 Impact of AG38 Changes Example: Male, Issue age 55 Preferred NT (2 nd best) UW class Face Amount = $500K Level Pay premium to guarantee maturity = $6,000 Uses shadow account with multiple l sets of charges Under old AG38, IRR = 10% 16 8

22 Impact of AG38 Changes Impact of AG38 changes on Reserves Reserve Per $1, Old AG38 New AG38 - Total New AG38 - Deficiency Duration 17 Impact of AG38 Changes Profit Impact IRR drops from 10% to 4.7% Premium Impact to return to IRR of 10% Similar design = 38% increase Steeper design = 31% increase 18 9

23 Impact of AG38 Changes Reserves under higher premiums Reserve Per $1, Duration New AG38 New AG38 - Similar Design - Total New AG38 - Steeper Design - Total New AG38 - Similar Design - Deficiency New AG38 - Steeper Design - Deficiency 19 Impact of AG38 Changes Competitive Comparisons MP55, $500K Level Pay premium to guarantee to Maturity Source: Internally prepared benchmarks March 2012 Top 5 Average = $5,858 Top 10 Average = $5,934 January 2013 Top 5 Average = $6,172 (+5.3%) Top 10 Average = $6,286 (+5.9%) 20 10

24 Impact of AG38 Changes Competitive Comparisons MP55, $500K (Level) Premium increases varied by company Premium Old New Change Rank Rank Company A 20.4% 2 17 Company B 3.3% 4 1 Company C 10.0% 6 11 Company D 0.8% Impact of AG38 Changes Competitive Comparisons MPP55, $1M Single Pay premium to guarantee to Maturity Source: Blease Research Full Disclosure survey January 2012 Top 5 Average = $174,144 Top 10 Average = $178,082 January 2013 Top 5 Average = $197,925 (+13.7%) Top 10 Average = $212,124 (+19.1%) 22 11

25 Impact of AG38 Changes Competitive Comparisons MPP55, $1M (Single) Premium increases varied by company Premium Change Company A 16.6% Company B 29.5% Company C 10.9% Company D 52.6% 23 Impact of AG38 Changes Premium Limits (may not be limited to ULSG) Fixed Dollar Limits Example: Maximum Year 1 premium of $500,000 Limits tied to Target premium Example: Year 1 premium no more than 3.5 x Target Limits on Modified Endowment Contracts Example: Will not accept MEC s Face Amount Limits Example: Maximum Face of $5 million 24 12