Session 74 PD, Indexed Product Update. Moderator: Robert P. Stone, FSA, MAAA
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1 Session 74 PD, Indexed Product Update Moderator: Robert P. Stone, FSA, MAAA Presenters: Guillaume Briere-Giroux, FSA, MAAA Robert P. Stone, FSA, MAAA
2 Fixed Indexed Annuity Market Update 2014 Life and Annuity Symposium Atlanta May 20, 2014 Guillaume Briere-Giroux, FSA, MAAA, CFA 2014 Oliver Wyman
3 Agenda I. Market dynamics II. Product trends III. Pricing, valuation and risk management issues IV. Watch list 2014 Oliver Wyman 1
4 Section 1 Market dynamics 2014 Oliver Wyman
5 Annuity sales trends ( ) Fixed indexed annuities (FIAs) are now firmly established as the second largest annuity segment Market risk for policyholder Lower Higher Variable Indexed MVA Book value SPIA DIA Sales data from LIMRA 2014 Oliver Wyman 3
6 Indexed annuity sales trends ( ) FIA sales have grown at a robust 7.8% annual rate since % CAGR $ Billions Source: Wink s Sales & Market Report (2006 and prior) and LIMRA (2007 and later) 2014 Oliver Wyman 4
7 Competitive landscape (2013) Today s FIA market has a broad range of players with increasing representation outside of the independent channel Market share and dominant distribution channels by ownership structure and credit rating Primary distribution channels Mutual Companies National Life Group Pacific Life Nationwide Western & Southern OneAmerica Independent organizations Independent and banks Banks and wirehouses Career Ownership Structure Foreign Subsidiaries US Stock Companies Privately Held Private Equity Owned Phoenix Fidelity & Guaranty Life CNO Companies Security Benefit EquiTrust Sagicor Life American Equity 11.7 % Forethought 7.1 % 10.4 Athene Allianz Life % VOYA Genworth 15.5 All other companies % AIG Symetra National Western Midland National 7.9 % Lincoln Benefit Life Jackson National Protective Life Lincoln Great American North American Size of bubbles represents 2013 market share B Lower B++ Source: Wink s Sales & Market Report and Oliver Wyman Research B+ A- Credit Rating 2014 Oliver Wyman 5 A A+ A++ Higher
8 Competitive landscape (2005) The FIA market was previously heavily concentrated in niche players focusing on the independent channel Market share and dominant distribution channels by ownership structure and credit rating Primary distribution channels Mutual Companies Allianz Life Jackson National Sun Life (Now Delaware Life) Independent organizations Independent and banks Banks and wirehouses Career Ownership Structure Foreign Subsidiaries US Stock Companies Privately Held American Equity 9.9 % Old Mutual (Now Fidelity & Guaranty Life) EquiTrust All other companies % % 15.2 % 8.8 % ING (Now VOYA) Jefferson Pilot (Now Lincoln) AmerUS (Aviva USA / Athene Block) Midland National 7.5 % Size of bubbles represents 2005 market share Private Equity Owned % B Lower B++ Source: Advantage Compendium and Oliver Wyman Research B+ A- Credit Rating 2014 Oliver Wyman 6 A A+ A++ Higher
9 Recap of trends in market players and distribution Foreign subs in retreat Private equity gaining ground Expansion in banks and broker dealers Broader carrier base 2014 Oliver Wyman 7
10 FIA market driving forces Significant changes are being driven by the following key forces Forces Description Sales New Entrants / Channels M&A Activity Changes in Domicile Interest rates Regulatory Low interest rates are driving a search for yield and players with alternative asset strategies are becoming prominent Variations in how states apply reserve and capital requirements Solvency II and Canadian solvency requirements Demographics / consumer needs Income riders make up ~65% of sales and 70% of agents consider them a must have (Phoenix survey) Baby boomers nearing retirement with significant wealth are nearing peak age for FIA sales Inforce blocks Most sales from (peak years before introduction of FIA income riders) are about to exit the surrender charge period This should propel sales in ; we expect business rolling off the books to be a more significant driver of FIA sales moving forward (as with the VA market) 2014 Oliver Wyman 8
11 Economic conditions FIA sales are benefiting from higher investment yields since mid-2013 Select Bond Yields Credit and Maturity Spreads Credit spreads are slightly above pre-crisis levels and the yield curve is steeper. This makes FIAs comparably more attractive than alternatives such as fixed annuities (generally shorter maturities) or CDs. Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis, Treasury data and BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spreads 2014 Oliver Wyman 9
12 Acquisitions by private equity / alternative buyers reshaped the FIA market Acquirer/Seller (date) * *Group of investors led by Guggenheim 2014 Oliver Wyman 10
13 Many FIA carriers decided to re-domicile in the past year Regulatory environment, pool of insurance expertise and operating costs are drivers Relocation to Iowa announced January 2014 Relocation to Illinois announced January 2014 Relocation to Iowa announced November 2013 Decided to locate overall headquarters in Des Moines (2013) and relocated jobs from Kansas (2014) 2014 Oliver Wyman 11
14 Section 2 Product trends 2014 Oliver Wyman
15 Notable base contract features and trends 1 VA 2 Volatility / FIA hybrids control indices Can be VA or FIA by design Designs with floors less than zero, registered and no minimum contract value Downside protection via protection buffers or protection floors Higher upside Short surrender charges Sellers include AXA, Allianz Life, MetLife Lower hedge cost allows uncapped upside Sellers include Security Benefit, Symetra, Allianz Life, Fidelity and Guaranty Life 3 Liquidity features 4 Other accumulation features Features that are not new but popular include Return of premium Bailout provisions Nursing home waivers Shorter surrender charge designs gained popularity Buy up the cap Rolling forward index credits Credits linked to change in interest rates Guaranteed minimum values Average commissions continue to decline, but much of this is driven by the popularity of shorter surrender charge designs as opposed to changes in the interest rate environment 2014 Oliver Wyman 13
16 Benefit riders 1 Indexed-linked income growth Stacked rollups (e.g. 4% + account value performance) Turbocharged account value driving income Income increases after income start 2 Other variations in lifetime income structures 3 Nursing 4 Enhanced home income riders death benefits Rollups are compound / simple / or absent (e.g., vary income rates by age / duration) Limiting rollups / limiting younger issue ages common (AG 33) Less breakpoints in income bands More income options (flat, guaranteed increase or index-linked increases) Offered for free or additional charge (e.g. 10 bps) Typically doubles the income for up to 5 years if cannot perform 2 of 6 ADLs Becoming increasingly common Complex to price Offered with or without GLWB (sometimes for an additional charge) Wait periods Maximum payout Payout periods / reduced lump sum Benefit riders are the most important driver of sales for many carriers, but less so for carriers focusing on distribution through banks 2014 Oliver Wyman 14
17 Rider competiveness The richness of GLWB riders and extras such as nursing home doublers and GMDBs correlates fairly well with market share changes Market share and market share changes by credit rating and rider richness Rider Composite Richness Index* Lower Higher Rating / rider richness equivalent line Company A Company B Company D Company C Company E Company G Company F Market share changes Stable market share Increasing market share Decreasing market share Size of bubbles represents 2013 market share *Rider composite richness index includes allowance for GLWB payouts, rider charges, presence of nursing home benefits and GMDBs. This analysis does not factor commissions, distribution allowances or base credited rates. B Lower B+ B++ Source: Wink s Sales & Market Report and Oliver Wyman Research A- Credit Rating 2014 Oliver Wyman 15 A A+ Higher A++
18 Section 3 Pricing, valuation and risk management issues 2014 Oliver Wyman
19 Pricing, valuation and risk management issues Pricing assumption checklist Valuation and regulatory radar Risk management radar 2014 Oliver Wyman 17
20 1. Pricing assumption checklist 1 Lapses 2 Age Mix / GLWB Election Base rate + impact of GLB Policy year skew Dynamic rate (base contract) Dynamic rate (GLB in-the-moneyness driven) Utilization cohorts Utilization skew (feature driven) Utilization skew (attained age driven) 3 Mortality Base rate Mortality improvement 4 Management 5 Economic Actions Assumptions Crediting rate strategy Initial asset mix Reinvestment strategy Interest rates Credit spreads and default costs Equity performance Volatility skew 2014 Oliver Wyman 18
21 2. Valuation and regulatory radar 2012 IAR table ( ) AG 33 GLWB statutory reserves (in progress) IFRS 9 (2018) Valuation and capital for FIA / VA hybrids (in progress) Solvency 2 (2016 or later) NAIC Private Equity Issues (E) Working Group Risk-based capital (2014 updates) VM-22 (2016) US GAAP targeted updates (TBD) 2014 Oliver Wyman 19
22 3. Risk management radar Low rate environment / Federal Reserve actions Emerging GLWB utilization experience ORSA (2015) Hedging of GLWBs Hedging of interest rates Dynamic lapses Inforce blocks approaching end of the surrender charge period 2014 Oliver Wyman 20
23 Section 4 Watch list 2014 Oliver Wyman
24 Watch list 1 Interest rates 2 M&A 3 4 Statutory reserving Risk management of riders 2014 Oliver Wyman 22
25 Indexed Universal Life Life and Annuity Symposium Presented by Rob Stone, FSA, Principal & Consulting Actuary May 20, 2014
26 Agenda Market Overview The case for Indexed UL Product Features IUL Considerations Indexed Modeling Complexities IUL Case Study Questions 2 May 30, 2014
27 Market Overview Life Products Individual Life Insurance Growth Rates by Product Percent Change Annualized Premiums Face Amount Number of Policies Universal Life Fourth Quarter -23% -27% -16% Year to Date Variable Universal Life Fourth Quarter Year to Date Term Fourth Quarter Year to Date Whole Life Fourth Quarter Year to Date Totals Fourth Quarter -8% -6% -4% 2013 YTD + -3% -3% + Less than one half of one percent Source: LIMRA s U.S. Individual Life Insurance Sales Summary Report, Fourth Quarter May 30, 2014
28 4Q 2013 Market Share of Annualized Premium UL 35% 22% 5% 38% VUL Term Whole Life Source: LIMRA 4 May 30, 2014
29 4Q 2011 Market Share of Annualized Premium UL 31% 22% 7% 40% VUL Term Whole Life Source: LIMRA 5 May 30, 2014
30 4Q 2008 Market Share of Annualized Premium 23% 22% 14% 41% UL VUL Term Whole Life Source: LIMRA 6 May 30, 2014
31 4Q 2006 Market Share of Annualized Premium 23% 22% 15% 40% UL VUL/VL Term Whole Life Source: LIMRA 7 May 30, 2014
32 4Q 2000 Market Share of Annualized Premium 23% 23% 18% 36% UL VUL/VL Term Whole Life Source: LIMRA 8 May 30, 2014
33 4Q 2013 UL Market Share of Premium by UL Type 27% IUL-ULSG 2% 28% ULSG Term UL + Other IUL-CA 5% CA 18% 13% 7% Accum IUL-Accum Source: LIMRA <<0% + Less than one half of one percent 9 May 30, 2014
34 Life / Annuity Sales Drivers: Market Forces Yr T (%) S&P (100's) Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan May 30, 2014
35 Indexed UL Sales (Total Life is 10B) $1,600 $1,314 $1,428 $1,200 $973 $800 $695 $512 $539 $531 $400 $352 $65 $62 $63 $85 $100 $97 $140 $187 $ Source: Total Sales LIMRA; Indexed Sales - Wink s Sales & Market Report 4th Quarter May 30, 2014
36 Indexed UL Sales Top 15 Companies Rank Company Market Share 1 Pacific Life Companies % 2 AXA US National Life Group (NL/LSW) Aegon Minnesota Life Allianz Life Prudential Companies Zurich Life (est) American General Life Companies Aviva Lincoln National Life National Western Midland National Life Penn Mutual Nationwide 3.13 Top 5 Combined: 43.26% Second 5 Combined: 22.22% 2013 was the 4th year in a row to break the indexed life sales record. Source: Wink s Sales & Market Report 4th Quarter May 30, 2014
37 Indexed UL Sales Top 15 Companies Rank Company Market Share 1 AXA Equitable 14.52% 2 Aviva Pacific Life Companies AEGON Companies National Life Group (NL/LSW) Minnesota Life Penn Mutual NationalWestern Midland National Life Lincoln National Life Allianz Life American General Life Companies Allstate Financial (LBL) ING North American Company 2.18 Top 5 Combined: 55.01% Second 5 Combined: 24.22% Source: AnnuitySpecs, Indexed Sales & Market Report 4 th Quarter, May 30, 2014
38 Indexed UL Sales Top 15 Companies Rank Company Market Share 1 Aviva AIG American General Pacific Life Companies National Life Group (NLV/LSW) AEGON Companies Old Mutual Financial Network Allianz Life Midland National Life Allstate Financial (LBL) Phoenix Life Penn Mutual ING Minnesota Life National Western Union Central Life (UNIFI) 1.24 Top 5 Combined: 59.08% Second 5 Combined: 21.01% Source: AnnuitySpecs, Advantage Index Sales & Market Report 4 th Quarter, May 30, 2014
39 Indexed UL Sales Top 14 Companies Rank Company Market Share 1 AVIVA 37.43% 2 AEGON Companies National Life Group (NLV/LSW) AIG American General (est) Old Mutual Financial Network Allianz Life Pacific Life Companies Midland National Life Conseco Lafayette Life National Western Union Central Life (UNIFI) Minnesota Life North American Company (est) 0.02 Top 5 Combined: 75.67% Second 5 Combined: 22.24% Source: Advantage Compendium, Advantage Index Product 4 th Quarter 2006 Sales Report 15 May 30, 2014
40 Indexed UL Sales Top Characteristics of 4 th Quarter Sales 52 Carriers Offering Product Crediting Method Annual Point-to-Point 73.9% Index S&P % Rainbow/Multi-Index 21.5% Other (including Fixed) % Surrender Period: 9-10 Year % Year % 15 Year % Year.5.6% Source: Wink s Sales & Market Report 4th Quarter May 30, 2014
41 Indexed UL Sales Top Characteristics of 4 th Quarter Sales 46 Carriers Offering Product Crediting Method Annual Point-to-Point 70.4% Index S&P % Rainbow/Multi-Index 4.6% Other (including Fixed) % Surrender Period: 9-10 Year % Year % 15-Year % Year 23.0% Source: AnnuitySpec s Sales & Market Report 4th Quarter May 30, 2014
42 Indexed UL Sales Top Characteristics of 4 th Quarter Sales 35 Carriers Offering Product Crediting Method Annual Point-to-Point 64.5% Index S&P The norm Rainbow/Multi-Index 6 carriers offering Non-S&P (including international)...8 carriers offering Surrender Period: 9-10 Year % Year % 15 Year % Year 15.6% Source: AnnuitySpec s Sales & Market Report 4th Quarter May 30, 2014
43 Leaning on IUL Traditional current assumption UL difficulty illustrating Low cost death benefit Retirement income Indexed UL becoming a go to UL product Attractive illustrated rates for non-guaranteed crediting Annual pt to pt with cap remains most prevalent method Sometimes offer methods merely to boost illustrated rate 2-yr pt to pt, even though seldom chosen by policyholders Leaning on IUL - can one product do it all well? 19 May 30, 2014
44 Product Features - IUL Secondary Guarantees GLWB Indices and Crediting Strategies LTC Combo and Chronic Illness 20 May 30, 2014
45 IUL Considerations Choosing equity growth rates for pricing and illustration testing AG 36 Offering guarantees, incorporating AG38 Setting cap and participation rates Illustration issues proposed actuarial guideline Variable rate loans 21 May 30, 2014
46 Indexed Modeling Complexities Option pricing models Volatility surfaces Data less readily available than some Some options do not have closed form The need to model asset portfolio in pricing as part of assessing interest rate risk Solvers to model rate setting; management action levers Caps Participation rates Spreads 22 May 30, 2014
47 Indexed Modeling Complexities (Continued) Multiple crediting strategies Multiple buckets At least 12 per crediting strategy for IUL In-force Modeling Complexities Mapping of Buckets Global Hedges versus Liability cell specific hedges Others? Stochastic Pricing 23 May 30, 2014
48 Indexed UL Pricing Case Study Started with traditional fixed UL Endowment premium at 3.25% credited interest 10 year per unit load to get starting IRR Switched to indexed product First with UL premium Recalculated premium with same mechanics, 6.5% indexed growth Recalculated premium again, 6.5% but 50% of prior per unit load Ignored AG36 for this example 24 May 30, 2014
49 Indexed UL Pricing Case Study PV at 10% PV at 10% PV at 10% Product Fixed UL Indexed UL Indexed UL Credit/Growth 3.25% 3.25% 6.50% Premium UL Endow UL Endow UL Endow Hedge Ratio Original 100% 100% IRR 11.5% 11.7% 19.1% InvIncome $12,684 $12,230 $15,870 Option Purchase $0 ($11,123) ($13,923) Option Maturity $0 $10,254 $25,264 Gen Int Credits $10,610 $280 $274 Indexed Credits $0 $9,374 $23,277 Interest Margin $2,074 $2,892 $5,274 Expense Loads $16,623 $16,616 $16,655 Expenses/Commissions $21,914 $21,914 $21,914 Expense Margin ($5,291) ($5,298) ($5,259) Funds released on Surrender $16,843 $16,606 $20,872 Surrender benefits $14,714 $14,681 $18,254 Surrender Margin $2,129 $1,925 $2,618 COIs $7,180 $7,198 $6,756 Funds released on Death $989 $973 $1,781 Death benefits $5,357 $5,357 $5,711 Mortality Margin $2,812 $2,814 $2,827 AV/Res Diff/Int on TS ($2,585) ($2,034) ($2,443) Sum $4,309 $4,364 $7, May 30, 2014
50 Indexed UL Pricing Case Study PV at 10% PV at 10% PV at 10% Product Indexed UL Indexed UL Indexed UL Credit/Growth 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% Premium UL Endow First IUL Endow Revised IUL Endow Hedge Ratio 100% Original 50% of Original IRR 19.1% 39.6% 17.4% InvIncome $15,870 $7,989 $7,344 Option Purchase ($13,923) ($5,447) ($6,157) Option Maturity $25,264 $9,883 $11,171 Gen Int Credits $274 $280 $203 Indexed Credits $23,277 $9,006 $10,579 Interest Margin $5,274 $3,779 $2,298 Expense Loads $16,655 $14,689 $8,712 Expenses/Commissions $21,914 $14,203 $9,702 Expense Margin ($5,259) $486 ($4,394) Funds released on Surrender $20,872 $8,610 $9,727 Surrender benefits $18,254 $6,783 $7,679 Surrender Margin $2,618 $1,827 $2,047 COIs $6,756 $7,587 $7,545 Funds released on Death $1,781 $647 $678 Death benefits $5,711 $5,358 $5,357 Mortality Margin $2,827 $2,876 $2,866 AV/Res Diff/Int on TS ($2,443) 221 ($1,392) Sum $7,894 $8,746 $4, May 30, 2014
51 Indexed UL Pricing Case Study: Moving past deterministic Item IRR Base, deterministic 6.5% Growth 17.4% Base, deterministic 3.25% Growth 11.7% Stochastic (6.5% avg; 20% vol) Scenarios less than 9% 5% Scenarios between 9-12% 21% Scenarios between 12-15% 49% Avg 13.0% Scenarios between 15-18% 25% Scenarios greater than 18% 0% What s it mean? Important not to assume equity indices go up overall expected amount each and every year. 27 May 30, 2014
52 Questions? 28 May 30, 2014
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