The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece Fial Report ad Fidigs Keeth S. Yalowitz James F. Collis Ross A. Virgiia Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy
The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece Fial Report ad Fidigs* December 1 3, 2008 Dartmouth College Haover, New Hampshire USA Sposored by the Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig at Dartmouth College, the Caregie Edowmet for Iteratioal Peace, ad the Uiversity of the Arctic Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy Keeth S. Yalowitz, Ambassador (ret.) Director, Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig Dartmouth College James F. Collis, Ambassador (ret.) Seior Associate ad Director, Russia ad Eurasia Program Caregie Edowmet for Iteratioal Peace Washigto, D.C. Ross A. Virgiia Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig Director, Istitute of Arctic Studies Professor of Evirometal Studies Dartmouth College * This coferece report summarizes the itegrated discussios that emerged from four focused paels, but its fidigs ad policy recommedatios are the sole resposibility of the authors. Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy
Table of Cotets Executive Summary ad Key Fidigs 1 Coferece Summary 5 Sciece ad Policy 9 Ecoomics, Resources, ad Developmet 12 Political ad Security Issues 15 Goverace ad Istitutios 18 Coclusios 21 Policy Recommedatios 23 Participat List 25 Ackowledgmets 28
Source: Uiversity of Texas Libraries, The Uiversity of Texas at Austi
Executive Summary ad Key Fidigs The pace of chage i the Arctic due to global climate coditios demads that greater attetio be focused o the regio, its eeds ad the issues surroudig its developmet over the ear ad itermediate term. The implicatios for U.S. citizes i the regio ad importat U.S. security, ecoomic, evirometal, ad political iterests as a result of chages i the Arctic are profoud. The preset global fiacial crisis has relieved some of the moutig pressure for Arctic ecoomic ad resource developmet. Durig this hiatus, the U.S. should seize the opportuity to address critical eeds i ad aroud the Arctic regio to esure a sustaiable future for the Arctic eviromet ad its people. As a first priority, the U.S. should ratify the Uited Natios Covetio o the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Presidet should create a sub-cabiet commissio o global warmig headed by the Vice Presidet that elevates the importace of Arctic issues related to climate chage ad its effect o people, ecosystems, ad ecoomies, ad esures iteragecy coordiatio ad cross-discipliary egagemet. The U.S. should support ad promote a stroger role for the Arctic Coucil as the pricipal iteratioal forum for addressig Arctic issues. New measures should iclude support for a permaet secretariat for the Coucil, alog with adequate fudig to support effective program coordiatio, scietific research priorities, ad attetio to the icreasig iteratioal iterest i the Arctic, particularly by Chia, the EU, ad Japa. The U.S. should support Arctic sub-regioal forums, such as the Norther Forum, where issues ad research of commo cocer ca effectively be addressed o a regioal basis. The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 1
Arctic evirometal security should receive priority attetio as the key regioal security issue. The regio s most pressig eed is the developmet of a effective mechaism ad protocol for respodig to evirometal disasters, ad cotigecy plaig to esure regioal ad iteratioal cooperatio i respose to evirometal or atural calamities. Fishig, tourism, ad eergy developmet require special attetio. Note: Sice this coferece was held, there have bee sigificat ew developmets such as the Presidetial Directive o Arctic Regioal Policy, a ew Russia Federatio Arctic policy statemet, ew scietific evidece regardig the role of black carbo/carbo soot i the Arctic, ad the first ever joit meetig of the Arctic Coucil ad the Atarctic Treaty parters. These evets do ot chage the teor or fudametal fidigs ad recommedatios of this coferece report. The Presidetial Directive o Arctic Regioal Policy (Jauary 9, 2009) icludes recommedatios cosistet with the coclusios set forth by our coferece experts. We must ow esure that the Directive s calls for chage are implemeted. We are curretly preparig a study that we hope will accelerate that process. 2 y Fial Report ad Fidigs
Key Fidigs A. As a major Arctic power, the U.S. has resposibility for stewardship ad protectio of vital evirometal, security, ecoomic, ad political iterests i the Arctic regio. B. The failure of the U.S. to ratify UNCLOS weakes the ability of all istitutios i the iteratioal system, as well as the America govermet, to advace U.S. iterests i developig stroger regioal goverace. C. Global warmig is acceleratig the pace at which climate chage is affectig the Arctic regio as well as climatic ad evirometal coditios i the U.S. D. While evidece that global warmig is affectig both the Arctic regio ad the world s eviromet is icotrovertible, the scietific basis for uderstadig these pheomea ad the iformatio available for makig policy decisios remais iadequate. E. I order to defie issues for decisio ad set priorities for actio, govermets should demad accelerated scietific study of issues critical to iformed policy makig ad should be willig to fud eeded research. The scietific commuity must work i closer coordiatio with policy ad political decisio makers to reach a better mutual appreciatio ad uderstadig of each other s eeds ad processes. F. The preset global ecoomic slowdow provides a much-eeded hiatus i Arctic commercial pressures durig which importat Arctic powers could work o developig coordiated rules ad best practices by which to gover the developmet of Arctic resources. G. While global warmig is expadig the opportuities available for Arctic resource extractio, the pace of developmet will be govered more by ecoomic cosideratios, commodity pricig i particular, tha by possible greater access due to climate chage. Moreover, sice ice cover will remai for much of the year, eve shippig will remai difficult ad treacherous. H. Global warmig will sigificatly affect regioal ecoomies, their fish ad wildlife resources, ad the livelihood of peoples livig i the Arctic. These cosequeces already have begu to affect the lives of idigeous peoples egaged i subsistece ecoomies ad large-scale Alaska developmet projects. I. Despite alarmist predictios of a ew great game, the prospect for a sigificat cofrotatio amog Arctic powers over resources, boudaries, or claims is ow low. The Uited Natios Covetio o the Law of The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 3
the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a sigificat body of rules ad precedet to adjudicate the majority of disagreemets. Most regios with resources at stake are govered uder the rules of the 200-mile ecoomic zoe. Where there are disputed regimes or boudaries, these remai subject to accommodatio by the parties ivolved, i particular the U.S. ad Caada. J. The key security issue cofrotig the Arctic powers will be evirometal ad political. Rules cotrollig shippig, emissios, pollutio, ad lad use are weak, ad eforcemet mechaisms are iadequate. The eed for large-scale ecosystem-based maagemet regimes to protect the itegrity of the Arctic Ocea is receivig icreasig attetio, icludig proposals for a Arctic Treaty or Park i order to maage ad protect the Arctic Ocea as a iteratioal commos. K. The Arctic does ot led itself to a ew treaty regime similar to that which has govered Atarctica (Treaty System). However, there is a clear eed for more robust istitutioal goverace to address issues that are becomig more acute as evirometal chage accelerates ad regioal developmet pressures rise. L. The rights ad lifestyle of idigeous peoples demad cotiuous attetio from govermets, ad the voice of Native peoples must be cetral to decisios o maagemet of Arctic issues ad claims. M. A key issue i Arctic goverace is fidig the appropriate balace betwee atioal iterests ad actios ad the iterests ad role of the iteratioal commuity. N. Curretly the istitutio most broadly supported by the Arctic states is the Arctic Coucil, which addresses the rage of goverace issues arisig i the regio. It works o the basis of cosesus ad has o role o security issues. However, the Coucil eeds stroger support ad backig from leadig coutries, icludig the U.S. Sub-regioal orgaizatios withi Arctic atios have become importat sources of support for developmet ad coordiatio of Arctic policy. 4 y Fial Report ad Fidigs
Coferece Summary Sciece has provided overwhelmig evidece of huma-iflueced Arctic climate chage ad the likelihood that the pace of chage is acceleratig. The effects are ad will be felt aroud the world i the eviromet, weather ad oceaographic coditios, commercial shippig ad fishig, exploitatio of atural resources ad eergy, agriculture, ad wildlife. Idigeous peoples way of life is chagig, ad ew health ad disease cocers are arisig as climate chages i the North. If this were ot sufficiet cause for the urget attetio of policy makers, cocers also have arise about whether the Arctic could become the focal poit for a ew great game of power politics if the pricipal Arctic coastal states the U.S., Russia, ad Caada seek to escalate their claims to rich Arctic resources ad sea beds through political or military meas. I short, the issue may be stated as follows: The Arctic is curretly experiecig rapid systemic chage with multiple ecoomic, social, political, ad security implicatios that are still imprecisely uderstood. Whether this plays out amog the states ad parties cocered through iteratioal cooperatio, or competitio ad possible coflict, is a vital ad debated questio. Are the curret istitutios, treaties, ad forums for Arctic goverace adequate to deal with these challeges? Do o-state parties, pricipally idigeous peoples ad NGOs, as well as o-arctic states ad bodies such as Chia, Japa, ad the EU, have adequate represetatio i the deliberatios? How has the global fiacial ad ecoomic crisis impacted the pathway ad timig of the developmet of Arctic resources? Ad fially, ca the dialogue betwee scietists ad the policy commuity be improved to help address these multiple issues? These ad related questios were the subject of a coferece held at Dartmouth College i Haover, New Hampshire, December 1 3, 2008, o the subject of Arctic climate chage ad security policy. The three co-sposorig orgaizatios were the Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig at Dartmouth ad its Istitute of Arctic Studies, the Caregie Edowmet for Iteratioal Peace, ad the Uiversity of the Arctic. The coferece brought together a iteratioal group of academics, scietists, govermet officials, The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 5
6 y Fial Report ad Fidigs ad represetatives of idigeous peoples for a free-ragig, multi-discipliary discussio of the sigificat scietific, ecoomic, political ad security, ad goverace issues facig the Arctic over the ext 10 20 years. The coferece was the iaugural evet for the Uiversity of the Arctic Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy (IACP), established by Dartmouth ad the Uiversity of Alaska at Fairbaks, i collaboratio with Urbaa Uiversity. I keepig with the missio of the Istitute, the meetig was shaped to create iterdiscipliary dialog amog scietists, policy makers, ad idigeous peoples i a eviromet that ecouraged ope ad frak discussio of issues ad solutios.
Paels ad specific questios addressed durig backgroud presetatios ad discussio: PANEL I: Climate Chage The Chagig Arctic What are the curret major areas of scietific research about the Arctic ad what are the kowledge gaps? What do scietists see as the most importat issues ad research priorities? What scietific judgmets will policy makers eed to make iformed decisios? What is the state of dialog betwee sciece ad policy makers ad how best ca sciece iform them? Do the priorities match? PANEL II: Ecoomic Opportuities What is the kowledge base o resources (e.g., oil, gas, fish) i the North that are uder pressure at the preset, or i the ear future? What is happeig already i terms of ecoomic activity, shipbuildig, port costructio, ivestmet, ad developmet as a result of climate chage ad ew marie coditios? What are the major atioal ad iteratioal cocers i developig shippig, tourism, ad eergy exploratio ad the impact o idigeous peoples? What are the effects of the curret fiacial crisis o the prospects ad timig for Arctic developmet? PANEL III: The Political ad Security Dimesios Maagig Future Challeges Is a ew great game amog coutries over resources ad boudaries comig or will cooperatio ad cosesus prevail? What ca we lear from how coutries are already pursuig their iterests? What isights do sciece ad political sciece provide? How do we get policy makers to focus o these issues? The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 7
PANEL IV: Istitutioal ad Goverace Challeges What are the relevat iteratioal istitutios, orgaizatios, ad agreemets that deal with the Arctic? What are the legal ifrastructure ad eforcemet mechaisms? Are these mechaisms adequate i view of the challeges foresee ad, if ot, what may be eeded? Are these istitutios ad mechaisms broad eough to ecompass the iterests of o-member coutries ad parties such as Chia, Japa, ad the EU, ad various orgaizatios represetig idigeous peoples ad other stakeholder groups? What if the U.S. does or does ot joi the Law of the Sea Treaty? This coferece summary is ot iteded as a exhaustive ad fully documeted aalysis of Arctic climate chage ad associated security issues. I respose to this report, a more focused aalysis of policy optios ad goverace structures for the Arctic is i preparatio. Rather, we attempt to provide a syopsis of the most pressig policy issues idetified by a diverse ad highly qualified set of experts. This summary is followed by a set of policy recommedatios that we feel give the accelerated rate of evirometal chage i the Arctic, the chage i leadership i the U.S. govermet, ad the worldwide ecoomic dowtur are pressig. 8 y Fial Report ad Fidigs
Sciece ad Policy Climate sciece is uambiguous our plaet is a set of closely liked physical systems of lad, water, ad atmosphere i which the Arctic is itegral. Global warmig is affectig the world s weather, ad sea ice i the Arctic is meltig ad thiig rapidly, decliig 15% every decade over the recet past. Moreover, the pace of chage is acceleratig. Greehouse gas emissios from idustrial pollutio ad lad use chages are the key factors. Recet studies suggest that black carbo emitted from idustrial combustio ad boreal forest fires are resposible for up to half of the observed warmig i the Arctic. Aalysis of ice core records shows that, i the past, abrupt, sigificat chages i Arctic temperatures occurred over short time scales, years to decades. Some scietists argue that we are already approachig or have reached tippig poits i the climate system where large chage is possible agai, with serious cosequeces for coupled huma-atural systems. As the scietific uderstadig of climate chage advaces, policy makers are iudated with crisis maagemet decisios. The Arctic ad climate chage must compete for their attetio. To date, a commuicatio gap persists amog scietists ad policy makers. Thus, there is a eed for sciece to commuicate more effectively ad accurately ad to develop better qualitative ad quatitative models ad frameworks with which to iform policy makers. Models, as abstractios of complex atural ad coupled huma systems, are amog the most effective meas to preset the best sciece to decisio makers. The latter, however, must be aware of the assumptios, limitatios, ad ucertaities of models, ad the modelers must do their best to explai ad quatify these ukows. Ideed, eve the models used i the most recet (2007) Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage report did ot capture the accelerated chages observed i the behavior of sea ice ad ice sheets that scietists are recordig. Greater participatio by ative observers ad coordiatio of the extesive etwork of weather observig statios ad field research statios, if adequately fuded through programs such as AON (Arctic Observig Network) ad SAON (Sustaied Arctic Observig Networks), could provide ew opportuities to icrease the empirical base for scietific modelig. These models of real world problems are essetial aids for meetig the eeds of The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 9
10 y Fial Report ad Fidigs Arctic shippig ad resource developmet ad for ecouragig meaigful commuicatio betwee the sciece ad policy commuities. Sciece policy decisios are made i a fluid political eviromet i which trade-offs are costatly required at differet levels of scale ad with differig iterests ad stakeholders. I this cotext, sciece must be relevat if it is to meet people s eeds ad help sustai iterest i the set of issues facig policy makers. Scietific iformatio eeds to be provided o a timely basis (keepig pace with evirometal ad political chages) ad i a precise fashio, with a objective aalysis of the cosequeces of differet approaches clearly spelled out. If the goal of sciece is to iform policy, the political ad research timelies also must be uderstood. Policy makers, o the other had, should be literate i sciece ad committed to usig sciece i reachig decisios. Both policy makers ad scietists eed to uderstad their respective time costraits for reachig decisios. I order to compete for fudig of the best basic ad applied sciece, scietists must uderstad ad appreciate the decisio makers ad what their skills ad motivatios are for watig scietific iformatio. Scietists must tailor their messages to treasuries, which icreasigly are playig a importat decisio-makig role. More broadly, the pressig challege we cofrot is to wi sufficiet attetio from policy makers to push Arctic sciece ad policy issues closer to the top of the list of atioal ad iteratioal policy priorities. Amog the most cetral scietific research eeds for uderstadig Arctic chage ad its huma dimesios are better iformatio o 1) chages i sea ice, sow coverage, ad ice sheet behavior, 2) regioal scale variatio i climate chage, 3) emissios, trasport, ad accumulatio of idustrial pollutats, 4) global likages betwee the Arctic Ocea ad Arctic climate, 5) ecological ad social idicators of the health of the Arctic, 6) mechaisms causig abrupt climate chage, ad 7) modelig of lad, ocea, ad atmosphere iteractios. We must determie whether we are reachig tippig poits beyod which these systems are o loger resiliet. To achieve these iformatio eeds, more fudig for iteratioally-coordiated programs is required to provide moitorig for climate chage ad chages i idustrial pollutats that affect the health of ecosystems ad humas. Meetig these goals requires policies that coordiate the research programs of the Arctic states. Idigeous peoples are cetral stakeholders i the process of scietific assessmet ad policy for a sustaiable Arctic. Idigeous observers ad their traditioal kowledge are a uderutilized asset i evaluatig ad uderstadig the processes cotributig to rapid evirometal chage. Wester researchers eed to egage further with idigeous commuities ad orgaizatios to
build bods of commuicatio ad trust ad together develop a body of scietific iformatio that values ad itegrates idigeous kowledge o climate chage ad adaptatio. Likewise, Wester scietists must make their research accessible ad uderstadable to idigeous peoples ad fully ivolve them i formulatig research questios ad i coductig the work. Orgaizatios such as the Iuit Circumpolar Coucil (ICC) ad the other idigeous groups represeted at the Arctic Coucil provide a gateway for brigig Wester sciece expertise together with idigeous sciece. Iovative educatioal programs are eeded to esure that the ext geeratio of polar scietists ad egieers will have the scietific kowledge ad commuicatio skills to coduct research that beefits Arctic residets. The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 11
Ecoomics, Resources, ad Developmet If there is to be a ew great game i the Arctic, the the large eergy resources of the regio ad coflictig claims over the sea beds cotaiig them may be the triggerig aget. Questios aboud. What is the resource potetial of the Arctic? Are these resources already beig tapped? Does climate chage offer greater accessibility ad developmet? Is the curret ecoomic ad fiacial world crisis affectig the pace of developmet? The Arctic regio is ideed a storehouse of atural riches gas, oil, diamods, coal, iro ore, gold, zic, ickel, ad others. Developmet of oreewable resources has bee goig o for four decades. I terms of shippig, globalizatio of the Arctic ad the coditio of the global ecoomy are the biggest issues, ot climate chage. Large umbers of ships are already i the Arctic for may reasos, more tha 6,000 aually for tourism, fishig, ad trasport, mostly i summer. Tourism ad fishig i the Barets ad Berig Seas are rapidly icreasig ad few of these ships are ice-hardeed. Also, fishig patters ad locatios are chagig i respose to climate ad the altered sustaiability of some fish stocks. Much of today s Arctic shippig is withi the North ad ot itercotietal, ad prospects for log-distace trasportatio are still ucertai. There has bee great public fafare about orther sea routes ad the Northwest Passage opeig up for loger time periods due to sea ice melt ad cheaper coectios betwee Asia ad Europe. I fact, there is much ucertaity amogst shippig experts about whether or uder what coditios these routes will be ecoomical. Eve uder accelerated climate warmig, sea ice will remai i place for 6 8 moths, ad potetially dagerous floatig ice will remai year roud, ecessitatig the use of ice breakers for witer shippig routes ad ships desiged to meet the rigors of the Arctic Ocea eviromet. But there are importat safety ad evirometal issues. Arctic shippig today is regulated by volutary guidelies ad icosistet ad ad hoc goverace regulatios. There is a pressig eed for stable, rule-based regimes based o the UNCLOS ad IMO (Iteratioal Maritime Orgaizatio) rules for iteratioal marie coordiatio i the Arctic o safety, emissio, ad ifrastructure 12 y Fial Report ad Fidigs
issues. The specter of a major icidet with loss of life o a cruise ship i the Arctic is real ad caot be igored. Miig, extractio, ad eergy exploitatio i the Arctic have bee goig o for some time. The largest zic mie i the world (Red Dog Mie i Northwester Alaska) ad the largest ickel mie i the world (Norilsk Mie i orther Siberia) are located there, ad prospects are good for developmet of gold, diamods, ad cocetrated ores i Greelad ad elsewhere. Climate chage affects the timig of these projects ad creates ucertaities i forward plaig. I this area, sciece ca play a major role. Firms eed good scietific data to calculate shippig ad commodity prices. But the most importat factors affectig short-term ecoomic developmet are prices ad costs, ot climate chage, ad here the curret severe ecoomic dowtur is havig major effects. Charters for large ore carriers are ruig at oe percet of ormal rates, ad ew or expaded Arctic projects are beig delayed by paralysis i global credit markets. It is importat to ote that idigeous corporatios are a major factor i Arctic ecoomic developmet, ad resource developmet projects i may of the Arctic states caot go ahead without the approval ad participatio of idigeous peoples. There remais, however, a great eed to esure that idigeous stakeholders are full participats i decisios regardig resource developmet, trasport, ad commerce. The mai ecoomic prizes i the Arctic are oil ad gas ad mieral resources. The primary reserves belog to Russia, ad the major exploratio activity also is theirs. Recet estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey are that 30% of the remaiig world reserves of atural gas ad some 10% of the oil are i the Arctic. To date, uresolved issues ivolvig demarcatio of sea beds uder the UNCLOS are ot a major issue i the pace of eergy developmet; rather, the key factors are costs of developmet ad the price cycle of oil ad gas. Offshore projects are the most costly ad evirometally dagerous, ad most of the kow reserves of oil ad gas are withi atioal Exclusive Ecoomic Zoes (EEZs), which exted 200 autical miles from the coastlie. Thus, immediate prospects for iterstate coflict over oil ad gas reserves appear small. Of the Arctic coastal states, Russia, Caada, Norway, ad the U.S. are the most focused o Arctic resource developmet. As the ew Russia Arctic policy statemet (September 18, 2008) uderscores, this regio is of major importace for eergy productio, the ecoomy, ad atioal security. Russia is begiig to focus o off-shore developmet, but it eeds foreig techology to succeed over the short term. Their curret regulatios ad procedures, however, do ot favor foreig ivolvemet ad ivestmet. They could succeed over time without iteratioal parters, but they will edure short-term problems i doig so. The potetially eormous Shtokma off-shore oil ad gas field is scheduled for first drillig i 2010 ad exploitatio i 2015, but this could be delayed. Shtokma is iterestig because of the role of Statoil/ The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 13
14 y Fial Report ad Fidigs Hydro ad Total. It has a uique owership procedure that allows some scope for foreig ivolvemet. The iteratioal fiacial crisis will impact Arctic eergy developmet. Fuel prices are volatile ad fallig overall, but so are may developmet costs. The balace betwee ivestmet ad retur is ot favorig large ew projects i the Arctic. This situatio could cause the idustry to focus o more o-shore developmet i North America ad i locatios with more hospitable climes where productio ad trasportatio costs are lower. O the other had, the revaluig of the ruble might icrease Wester iterest i Russia parterships, especially if the Russias make their regulatios more attractive to foreig ivestors. Regardless of cost, there are strog icetives for private oil compaies to seek leases ad develop oil ad gas resources i the North because that it is oe place they ca still go. The political/ecoomic outlook o Arctic developmet is mixed. Cocers for eergy security will ultimately push developmet of Arctic oil ad gas, but the fiacial crisis ad slowig of world ecoomic activity is depressig eergy prices ad cosumptio ad makig it very difficult to predict the pace ad extet of developmet. As a result, there likely will ot be pell-mell developmet i the North over the ear term. This pause due to the slowdow i the global ecoomy gives the iteratioal commuity the chace to develop evirometal ad developmet rules of the game, a opportuity that should ot be lost. The challege is to wi the attetio of policy makers for implemetatio of ecoomic ad evirometal adaptatios i the North, ot just short-term mitigatio to avert a crisis. This likely decrease i the pace of ecoomic developmet affords the opportuity to better uderstad the impacts of climate chage ad developmet o the subsistece way of life for may idigeous peoples. The ecoomic ad social viability of Native commuities such as those i rural Alaska is seriously i questio. Residets are leavig those commuities for the cities, ad ecoomic adaptatio for those who remai is very problematic.
Political ad Security Issues What are the political ad security ramificatios of climate chage o the Arctic? Durig the Cold War the Arctic was a security flashpoit with U.S. ad Soviet uclear submaries patrollig uder the North Pole ad bombers airbore over the regio. Today, the Arctic is disassociated from great power politics, but will that remai the case? How will govermets defie their iterests i the regio i cooperatio with other states, or will they see the Arctic as a zoe of competitio ad possible coflict? How ca the attetio of policy makers be directed to Arctic issues without stokig competitio? The press has highlighted recet actios by states to ehace their territorial claims, but is the situatio really heatig up? Coutries with military/security iterests ad aval capacity i the Arctic are Russia, Caada, Norway, Demark, ad the U.S. Russia has bee the headlie grabber with the Chiligarov expeditio platig a Russia flag o the sea bed uder the North Pole ad the resumptio of bomber overflights. Russia s activities could be disruptive to the regio if its recet focus o politics ad territorial claims retais priority over icreased attetio to sciece ad iteratioal cooperatio. The drivig factors may be Russia prestige, idetity, ad image, which coverge o borders ad territorial claims. For Russia, sovereigty i the Arctic is a hard security issue. Russia military iterests ceter o the Kola Peisula, home to the Russia uclear submarie fleet, ad o rebuildig the Norther fleet. A ukow factor is whether the submitted Russia seabed territorial claims uder the UNCLOS will be upheld. A egative decisio might provide icetive for Russia to act uilaterally, although this prospect is ulikely. Eve if this happes, we do ot foresee clashes over resources, or is a full-blow arms race i the Arctic likely. Ad there will be o uclear testig. Russia Arctic policy ivolves may actors ad iterests with a clear policy lie ot always evidet. Russias agree that evirometal security is a importat Arctic issue ad that pollutio from outside the Arctic must be reduced. They are ot iterested i a ew iteratioal fault lie over the Arctic. Caada has ever had sigificat military capabilities i the Arctic, but over the past two years it has coducted operatios there to build capacity ad presece utilizig Iuit kowledge. This reflects a overall icrease i Caadia The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 15
16 y Fial Report ad Fidigs iterest i the Arctic maifested also i the Caadia IPY (Iteratioal Polar Year) program, mappig for developmet purposes, costructio of ew icebreakers, ad opeig ew research statios. I additio, Caada has iitiated the 2030 North plaig process to reshape its Arctic policies. Developmet of oil ad gas resources has depeded o world prices ad the cost of ifrastructure developmet. Caada, however, is lookig beyod the curret ecoomic dowtur to, for example, exploitatio of gas hydrates twety years i the future. It has made great progress i settlig Norther lad claims with First Natios groups. The key issue with the U.S. is whether the Northwest Passage sea route is Caadia iteral water or a iteratioal strait as claimed by the U.S. But the dispute is froze for ow by mutual agreemet. Caada is also defedig its political iterests, for example, by makig vessel otificatios i the Northwest Passage madatory ad makig clear it will ot cede aythig i the North. Will military meas be used? Probably ot. Caada aims to make its case for Arctic Ocea resources uder Article 76 of the UNCLOS. Caada is ot seekig a lad grab, ad its sovereigty claims should ot be exaggerated. Ideed, may Caadias believe that i the future the mai Arctic issue will be evirometal, ot military. Release of the revised U.S. Arctic Regioal Policy occurred i Jauary 2009. At the time of the coferece, curret policy, writte i 1994, listed meetig post Cold War atioal security ad defese eeds as a U.S. goal i the Arctic. The ew U.S. policy statemet reiterates this goal. The decliig coditio ad capacity of the U.S. ice breaker fleet, however, is a sig of disiterest o Washigto s part about military or security threats emaatig i the regio from curret disputed issues. It is also a serious limitatio o U.S. sciece i the polar regios. For Greelad, which has just approved a ew self govermet relatioship with Demark, the focus is o developig a cooperative ifrastructure i the Arctic, i.e., through the Arctic Coucil ad the Iteratioal Maritime Orgaizatio (IMO). The Ilulissat Declaratio of the five Arctic coastal states i May 2008, which pledged to use UNCLOS to resolve overlappig exteded cotietal shelf claims, has reduced some of these atioal tesios. Icelad, however, has objected to its exclusio from these discussios. Russia ad Caada have uresolved issues, but these are ot military i ature. Greelad s desire to have direct participatio i the deliberatios of Arctic states is complicated by Daish policies, which are focused o Europe ad ca be at odds with the iterests of Greeladers. The EU, Chia, ad Japa are amog the parties with growig Arctic iterests that eed to be recogized i the Arctic Coucil. Territorial claims uder UNCLOS leave some of the Arctic Ocea uclaimed ad larger zoes where there are overlappig claims. The latter icludes the Barets Sea, where for the past thirty years claims by Russia ad Norway
have ot preveted cooperatio i maagig fish stocks. States should be able to adjudicate overlappig claims through UNCLOS as there is o oil ad gas i these regios. Aother possibility is joit maagemet or a commos over the disputed areas. The eed for large-scale ecosystem-based maagemet regimes to protect the itegrity of the Arctic Ocea is receivig icreasig attetio, icludig proposals for a Arctic Treaty or Park i order to maage ad protect the Arctic Ocea as a iteratioal commos. I sum, security cocers ad issues seem ot to be the pressig factor drivig Arctic policy. Overblow press coverage of Arctic security issues appears to be i iverse relatioship to security realities. There are o large geopolitical fault lies, ad o resource wars are aticipated. Questios remai, however, over U.S. ad Russia positios ad the use of symbolic gestures for political purposes. We must also be midful of territorial claims by coutries such as Caada ad Demark, which ca cotribute to geeral tesios i the regio. UNCLOS is the best recogized istrumet to resolve these issues, but uilateral actios could upset the process. All of this leads to the possibility for buildig iterstate cooperatio o the structure ad mometum of the Arctic Coucil. The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 17
Goverace ad Istitutios Arctic goverace ad istitutios must be built o scietific fidigs, ecoomic ad evirometal cosideratios, ad the political/security situatio derived from the first two factors. Util ow, iteratioal Arctic goverace has bee led by the Arctic Coucil, a orgaizatio of eight Arctic states, six permaet Participatig Parties (idigeous peoples orgaizatios), ad observers. The Coucil ad its bodies have played a importat role i focusig attetio o evirometal ad climate-related issues, but the Coucil has o eforcemet mechaism, ad security ad political issues are ot withi its purview. Goverace withi the Arctic presets uique challeges. Ulike Atarctica, the Arctic is ot a cotiet ad has permaet residets, cosiderable atural resources, ad a high degree of developed idustrial activities. Most territorial claims withi the Arctic are ot overlappig, whereas the Atarctic is burdeed with them. Due to its strategic importace, the Arctic, ulike Atarctica, has bee a veue for Cold War competitio. These are some of the reasos why a Atarctic-like Treaty that provided for complete demilitarizatio, freezig of territorial claims, ad freedom of scietific research will ot likely be cocluded for the Arctic. Aother uusual characteristic of the Arctic ad a cosiderable challege for keepig Arctic policy high o the U.S. govermet s ageda is that there are o fully Arctic states, oly states with Arctic sub-regios. The result is shared or overlappig goverace o multiple issues that play out at local, state, regioal, ad iteratioal levels. This is a key reaso why it has bee so difficult to get policy makers to focus o the Arctic itself, rather tha treatig Arctic issues as a subsidiary to other policy decisios. As a cosequece, Arctic cocers are at risk of beig diluted by competig problems emaatig from more populated regios. Questios aboud. Is there a precise defiitio of the Arctic? Is Arctic citizeship a viable cocept? Is it ecessary to create a ew orgaizatio of Arctic states ad parties? Proposals are legio: a ew Arctic Treaty, a Evirometal Treaty, a Arctic Charter, Greeladic-style self-govermet, a stregtheed Arctic Coucil, ad greater participatio by orgaizatios such as IMO. 18 y Fial Report ad Fidigs
What are views of the major stakeholders o this multitude of issues? Caada wats a stable, rule-based regime i the Arctic i which it ca promote ecoomic ad social developmet, protect the eviromet, improve ad develop goverace, ad exercise its Arctic sovereigty. For example, Caada has take the iitiative to expad the geographic scope of its Arctic Waters Pollutio Prevetio Act. The Arctic Coucil, ot a ew Arctic Treaty or Charter, is cetral to this strategy. No threats are see to Caadia sovereigty i the Arctic, ad the curret disputes with Demark over Has Islad ad the Licol Sea ad with the U.S. over the Beaufort Sea are mior ad well maaged, if ot resolved. Caada s dispute with the U.S. over the Northwest Passage ad the U.S. dispute with Russia over Norther Sea Route (NSR) straits cocers their legal status whether they are iteral or iteratioal passageways ot owership or sovereigty. The sides ow agree to disagree. Other maritime atios, such as the UK, are also stakeholders i resolvig these disputes. Eve with global warmig, the ecoomic beefits of a Northwest Passage remai ucertai, sice shippig cotiues to face difficult avigatio i areas of variable ice coverage. Caada s recet extesio of its Arctic Shippig Laws ad Regulatios is ot meat to be a cofrotatioal actio. For Caada, the Ilulissat Declaratio ad UNCLOS represet the core of Caadia policy regardig avigatio ad access to ocea resources. The Europea perspective is that of a party ow watig greater ivolvemet ad participatio. They see the Arctic i a ew phase with ew states icreasig their presece politically ad ecoomically. Russia ad Caada have a log history with the Arctic but the EU is still framig its positios. The major issues of the day eergy, shippig, ad protectio of aimals ad fish force parties i differet directios o Arctic goverace ad policy. A Arctic Treaty seems dead from the start, but the questio is whether curret goverace vehicles are sustaiable. New evirometal regulatios will require the iput of sciece to provide data about the likages of the Arctic to the rest of the world. The challege facig states is to work out relatioships that keep the Arctic a special place while still likig it to the world. Russia s goverace viewpoit seems close to Caada s, i.e., the Norther Sea Route is iteral Russia waters. It also believes that curret iteratioal regimes are adequate for solvig problems. Russia s declared policy is strogly supportive of the Arctic Coucil. But its actios are ot always cosistet with this declared policy. Russia does ot edorse the idea of a ew iteratioal treaty o the Arctic ad believes there is little support for it. It believes UNCLOS is very importat ad is critical of the U.S. failure to ratify it. There is broad support i the ew U.S. admiistratio for ratifyig UNCLOS. The U.S./Caadia relatioship o Arctic issues is workig well ad shows little frictio, eve o disputed matters. The reality, however, is that The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 19
20 y Fial Report ad Fidigs the U.S. has may iterests worldwide, ad the Arctic is ot high o the priority list. The past U.S. positio o climate chage ad iteratioal agreemets was ot popular, but efforts to force the U.S. to chage were ot effective. The two strogest powers i the Arctic Coucil are the U.S. ad Russia. Russia positios are ot well coordiated. U.S. positios are coordiated, but this is complicated by the fact that both federal ad state (Alaska) levels are ivolved i policy makig. Arctic Coucil members must operate from this reality ad strive to raise Arctic issues at the policy level to get the attetio of the U.S. Alaska makes the U.S. a Arctic coastal state. Oil extractio supports 80% of the state s budget. Climate chage is already havig sigificat effects i Alaska i the form of massive forest fires, permafrost melt, coastal erosio, chages i forest diversity, ad ifrastructure damage. The questio for Alaska is how to ivolve all the stakeholders ad the best sciece to deal with these policy challeges. Uder a program begu i 2007, Sceario Network for Alaska Plaig (SNAP), devised at the Uiversity of Alaska Fairbaks, UAF scietists ad social scietists are providig data ad models o adaptatio ad mitigatio strategies to local, state, ad federal govermet officials. The goveror of Alaska subsequetly created a sub-cabiet commissio o climate chage. The SNAP program is iformig their deliberatios through cosultatio, preparatio of base-lie scietific iformatio, ad white papers. The Uiversity of Alaska Fairbaks, NGOs, ad idigeous orgaizatios are represeted, ad local, state, ad federal govermets are all ivolved. It is geerally believed that atio-states will cotiue to domiate Arctic goverace through the Arctic Coucil, but the workigs of that body ad others such as the IMO eed to be improved to hadle practical issues such as marie safety, protectio of the eviromet, ad evirometal security. Scietific iformatio provided to the Arctic Coucil eeds to be improved, but sciece should ot be politicized. Idigeous peoples must have a stroger voice at the Arctic Coucil ad be adequately fuded to participate fully i various Arctic Coucil assessmets ad projects.
Coclusios The Arctic strogly iflueces world climatic coditios, ad i tur it is deeply affected by outside factors, pricipally idustrial pollutio. The North will be a key player i eergy supply ad security as well as for resources such as zic, gold, diamods, ad eve fresh water. Globalizatio has already come to the Arctic with good ad bad results, but Arctic goverace ad istitutios are still evolvig. Specific fidigs from the Coferece s four-part ageda ad discussio follow below. Sciece plays a vital role i framig issues ad providig the data ad models ecessary for policy makers to come to decisios about adaptatio to climate chage. Models, however, must be more precise ad spell out the cosequeces of actio or iactio. We should also be cogizat of the reasos models fail, ad lear from them. Both Wester sciece ad traditioal kowledge must cotribute to this process. Sciece educatio is ecessary to raise the cosciousess of the public ad policy makers about global warmig, ad this must begi at a early school age. The curret world ecoomic dowtur is depressig fuel costs ad usage, ad it is imperative that this time-out period be used to cut cosumptio of fossil fuels o a lastig basis. The cycle of coditios feedig global warmig begis with burig fossil fuels, ad the curret slowdow should ot cause us to tur away from coservatio measures ad developmet of techology usig reewable eergy. Climate chage iflueces the timig of Arctic resource developmet, but the major factors are price ad cost. Ecoomic activity, maily miig ad eergy, which has bee steadily icreasig, ow is affected by the overall ecoomic declie ad drop i price ad demad for fuels ad commodities. Large eterprises will cotiue to experiece the dowtur, ad expasios ad ew projects will be delayed. Eve with meltig of sea ice, orther waterways will remai risky due to floatig ice ad udeveloped ifrastructure. The biggest risks are safety at sea ad evirometal cotamiatio of the water. Orgaizatios such as the IMO ad the Arctic Coucil must face up to these challeges. Idustry is i great eed of scietific data ad research, ad barriers to multidiscipliary study must be breached. Idustry ad govermets also must pay The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 21
22 y Fial Report ad Fidigs more attetio to the impact of climate chage o Native peoples. The subsistece way of life is passig, ad ew ecoomic developmet ad job opportuities are eeded; hadouts simply do ot work. The voices ad iterests of idigeous peoples must be itegral to decisios affectig them. Improved commuicatio o may levels is also a ecessity. Nowhere is this more obvious tha the gulf that exists betwee sciece ad policy. Sciece declares that there are major problems beig caused by climate chage i the North, but the policy makers are ot give startig poits, priorities, or clear steps to take. More targeted research as well as basic research is eeded, particularly o where the abrupt turig poits may be ad whe. The sciece must be relevat, timely, ad sustaiable. Policy makers also must provide better guidace ad sustaied fudig if they are to expect useful data ad models. The press must also do a better job of commuicatig Arctic realities. Frighteig scearios grab headlies, but they do ot accurately portray the situatio or educate the reader. This problem is especially preset i depictig the political/security situatio i the North. Great game laguage is ot applicable to the Arctic, where there are o fudametal security issues. States are ot yet defiig their iterests i zero sum terms. No geopolitical fault lies remiiscet of the Cold War are evidet, but there are some U.S. Russia military tesios that bear watchig. The U.S., Caada, ad Russia all approach the Arctic i a statecetric fashio, so the applicable political model here is of traditioal iterstate egotiatios as typified by the Ilulissat Declaratio. But there is o real security competitio, ad states appear ready to maage border-resources issues uder UNCLOS. Climate chage, rather tha security risks, is producig evirometal issues that require ew or bolstered istitutioal resposes. Judgig from all the above, there is good ad bad ews for Arctic goverace. The good ews is that the Arctic is ot doomed to great games or high politics, ad there is the chace to develop a cooperative ageda ad framework. Sciece ca play a importat role i framig the ageda by producig models that are ot atio-state based. Cosesus exists that it is time to focus o these matters, but there is o agreemet o how to approach the issues, which iclude: 1) Is the Arctic a regio ad should this issue be discussed? If there is iterest i defiig the Arctic, ca this be orgaized i a meaigful way? 2) If the state-cetric approach is cotiued, how ca we esure that the voices of idigeous peoples are heard? How do you iclude Chia ad the EU? 3) Is the Arctic Coucil capable of dealig with goverace challeges, or is aother veue such as a treaty eeded? If, as seems likely, the Arctic Coucil remais the chose istrumet, how could it be improved, ad how should fuctioal issues like maritime safety ad fishig be hadled?
Policy Recommedatios U.S. Policy Above all, the U.S. must immediately ratify the Uited Natios Covetio o the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Early actio would ehace the stature of the U.S. i workig with the Arctic Coucil. All parties, state ad o-state i the North, agree that the Law of the Sea is the framework for hadlig territorial ad border claims ad that the absece of the U.S. is uacceptable. Deliberatios o claims are already proceedig uder UNCLOS. The U.S. is gatherig data for possible future claims, but these would have o stadig uless the U.S. becomes a Treaty parter. The U.S. played the lead role i brigig the iteratioal commuity to agreemet o the 1959 Atarctic Treaty, ad ratificatio of UNCLOS would allow the U.S. to agai take a leadership role i promotig iteratioal cooperatio ad dialogue i the North. The U.S. should take a leadership role i iteratioal climate policy uder the ogoig Uited Natios Framework Covetio o Climate Chage to slow climate chage ad mitigate its impacts o Arctic residets. This will eed to be backed up by ew cogressioal actios. The ew U.S. admiistratio should create a sub-cabiet commissio o global warmig headed by the Vice Presidet. The Alaska sub-cabiet model ivolvig the Uiversity of Alaska Fairbaks, NGOs, Alaska state ad federal govermet authorities, ad idigeous group leaders demostrates how scietists, iterested stakeholders, ad policy makers ca cooperate o issues of adaptatio ad mitigatio of climate chage. Because of Alaska ad the growig impact of climate chage o the lower 48 states, the U.S. eeds to better orgaize itself for this challege. Iteratioal Goverace ad Fora For the foreseeable future, the Arctic Coucil will be the pricipal body of goverace i the North. The Coucil has had a o-permaet secretariat fuded by Norway for six years. With o political/security issues o The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 23
the horizo, the Coucil is best placed to deal with issues resultig from globalizatio of the Arctic, such as icreased shippig, evirometal security, etc. There is a broadly felt eed for high level policy attetio to Arctic issues, ad a permaet Arctic Coucil secretariat could provide that focus ad develop recommedatios for dealig with fuctioal issues. The state-cetric approach has prevailed to date i the Arctic, but a modificatio i the case of the Arctic Coucil secretariat will promote Arctic cooperatio ad focus the attetio of policy makers. Sub-regioal orgaizatios of Arctic states, such as the Norther Forum, should be better supported to discuss their commo cocers, cooperate o scietific research, ad brig attetio o Arctic policy issues to their publics ad govermets. These would also provide a veue for discussio of the ecoomic, social, ad evirometal cocers of idigeous peoples. Coordiatio of activities at this scale should allow issues to reach the Arctic Coucil more quickly ad with better iformatio for aalysis. Arctic Security Redefied The eviromet ad the maagemet of atural resources are the most pressig security issue i the North. States are committed to addressig issues of boudaries ad Arctic Ocea access through existig istitutios, pricipally UNCLOS. Large-scale damage to the Arctic eviromet from trasportatio accidets, eergy developmet, fishig, tourism, ad the log-rage trasport of pollutats from the South pose greater immediate threats tha classic security issues. Emergecy respose systems ad cotigecy plas for the North are eeded to respod to possible ship disasters, idustrial pollutio, oil spills, etc. Such a respose system is curretly o-existet or ot up to the task. Give the icreased shippig activity i the Arctic ad the lack of ports ad rescue capability, the eed is growig. This should be a task for the Arctic Coucil i cooperatio with existig specialized bodies such the Iteratioal Maritime Orgaizatio. The eed for large-scale ecosystem-based maagemet regimes to protect the itegrity of the Arctic Ocea is receivig icreasig attetio, icludig proposals for a Arctic Treaty or Park to maage ad protect the Arctic Ocea as a commos. These proposals uderlie the eed for a strog Arctic Coucil ad U.S. participatio i UNCLOS i order to provide istitutioal protectio for the Arctic Ocea. 24 y Fial Report ad Fidigs
Participat List Dr. Mary Albert, U.S. Army Cold Regios Research ad Egieerig Laboratory (CRREL), Terrestrial ad Cryospheric Scieces Brach, Research Egieer (Uited States) Mr. Raymod Araudo, U.S. Departmet of State, Head of U.S. Atarctic Treaty Secretariat (Uited States) Dr. Pavel K. Baev, Iteratioal Peace Research Istitute, Research Professor (Norway) Dr. Betsy Baker, Vermot Law School, Visitig Associate Professor, (Uited States) Mr. Alexey V. Bakhity, Embassy of the Russia Federatio, Third Secretary (Russia Federatio) Dr. Michael Bravo, Cambridge Uiversity, Scott Polar Istitute, Professor of Geography (Eglad) Dr. Lawso Brigham, U.S. Arctic Research Commissio, Director of the Alaska Office (Uited States) Mr. Neal Burham, Bosto Cosulate, Cosul ad Head of Political/Ecoomic Relatios ad Public Affairs (Caada) Amb. James Collis, Caregie Edowmet for Iteratioal Peace, Russia ad Eurasia Program, Seior Associate ad Director; Diplomat i Residece (Uited States) Mr. Stephe de Boer, Departmet of Foreig Affairs ad Iteratioal Trade, Oceas ad Evirometal Law Divisio, Director (Caada) The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 25
Mr. Robert Gorma, Fedav Group, Maager of Evirometal Services (Caada) Dr. Leoard Greehalgh, Dartmouth College, Director of Programs for Miority ad Wome-Owed Busiesses ad Director of Native America Busiess Programs, Tuck School of Busiess (Uited States) Dr. Peter Harriso, Quee s Uiversity, School of Policy Studies, Former Seior Associate Deputy Miister of Idia ad Norther Affairs (Caada) Ms. Lee Kielse Holm, Iuit Circumpolar Coucil Greelad, Director of Iteratioal Sustaiable Developmet (Greelad) Dr. Stephe Joes, Urbaa College, Presidet (Uited States) Mr. Timothy Krysiek, Cambridge Eergy Research Associatio (CERA), Associate for Russia ad Caspia Eergy (Uited States) Dr. Lars Kullerud, Uiversity of the Arctic, Presidet (Norway) Mr. Aqqaluk Lyge, Iuit Circumpolar Coucil, ICC Vice-chair ad ICC-Greelad Presidet (Greelad) Dr. Thomas Oates, Urbaa Uiversity, Vice Presidet for Academic Affairs (Uited States) Mr. Iuuteq Holm Olso, Departmet of Foreig Affairs, Deputy Foreig Miister (Greelad) Dr. Darre Raco, Dartmouth College, Professor of Native America Studies ad Evirometal Studies (Uited States) Dr. Scott Rupp, Uiversity of Alaska at Fairbaks, Departmet of Forest Sciece (Uited States) Dr. Barry Scherr, Dartmouth College, Provost (Uited States) Dr. Michael Sfraga, Uiversity of Alaska at Fairbaks, Director of the Uiversity of Alaska Geography Program (Uited States) Ms. Outi Sellma, Uiversity of the Arctic, Director of Admiistratio ad Uiversity Relatios (Filad) 26 y Fial Report ad Fidigs
Dr. Yury Tsaturov, Arctic Coucil, Deputy Chair of the Arctic Moitorig Assessmet Program (Russia Federatio) Dr. Ross Virgiia, Dartmouth College, Professor ad Director of the Istitute of Arctic Studies at the Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig (Uited States) Dr. William Wohlforth, Dartmouth College, Professor ad Chair of the Departmet of Govermet (Uited States) Amb. Keeth Yalowitz, Dartmouth College, Director of the Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig, Adjuct Professor of Govermet (Uited States) Dr. Mauri Yla-Kotola, Uiversity of Laplad, Rector (Filad) Dr. Ora Youg, Uiversity of Califoria at Sata Barbara, Professor of Evirometal Sciece ad Maagemet, Bre School of Evirometal Sciece ad Maagemet (Uited States) The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 27
Ackowledgmets The authors exted their sicere thaks to Lee McDavid, Diaa Galperi, ad Dr. Jill Mikucki for their help orgaizig the coferece ad preparig this documet. Additioal thaks to Dr. Michael Sfraga of the Uiversity of Alaska at Fairbaks for his importat cotributios to this coferece ad to the formatio of the Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy. 28 y Fial Report ad Fidigs
Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy