Managing An Uncertain

Transcription

1 STATE OF CALIFORNIA THE RESOURCES AGENCY DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES OCTOBER 2008 Maagig A Ucertai Future Climate Chage Adaptatio Strategies for Califoria s Water 1

2 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER Itroductio... 1 Summary... 2 THE Challeges AHEAD... 4 Imperative to Act... 8 Adaptatio Strategies Ivestmet Provide Sustaiable Fudig for Statewide ad Itegrated Regioal Water Maagemet Regioal Fully Develop the Potetial of Itegrated Regioal Water Maagemet Aggressively Icrease Water Use Efficiecy Statewide Practice ad Promote Itegrated Flood Maagemet Ehace ad Sustai Ecosystems Expad Water Storage ad Cojuctive Maagemet of Surface ad Groudwater Resources Fix Delta Water Supply, Quality ad Ecosystem Coditios Improvig Maagemet ad Decisio-Makig Capacity Preserve, Upgrade, ad Icrease Moitorig, Data Aalysis ad Maagemet Pla for ad Adapt to Sea Level Rise Idetify ad Fud Focused Climate Chage Impacts ad Adaptatio Research ad Aalysis NEXT STEPS

3 INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION F or Califoria water maagers, the future is ow. Climate chage is already havig a profoud impact o water resources as evideced by chages i sowpack, river flows ad sea levels. The Departmet of Water Resources (DWR) will cotiue to play a leadership role i adaptig to these chages. DWR is already egaged i a umber of efforts desiged to improve Califoria s ability to cope with a chagig climate. However, more must be doe. This report recommeds a series of adaptatio strategies for state ad local water maagers to improve their capacity to hadle chage. May of the strategies will also help adapt our water resources to accommodate o-climate demads icludig a growig populatio, ecosystem restoratio ad greater flood protectio. Several of the recommedatios i this report are ready for immediate adoptio, while others eed additioal public deliberatio ad developmet. Some ca be implemeted usig existig resources ad authority, while the majority will require ew resources, sustaied fiacial ivestmet ad sigificat collaborative effort. May of Califoria s most importat water resource ivestmets remai depedet o bod fudig approved by voters. As a result, they are wellfuded i some years, but uderfuded i most. This history of ueve ad irregular ivestmet has delayed progress i areas that have the potetial to yield substatial gais over short periods of time. Adapt or perish, ow as ever, is ature s iexorable imperative. - H. G. Wells DWR presets this report as part of the process of updatig the Califoria Water Pla, ad as part of the Califoria Resources Agecy s draft statewide Climate Adaptatio Pla. Overall, this report urges a ew approach to maagig Califoria s water ad other atural resources i the face of a chagig climate. Lester A. Sow Director 1

4 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER SUMMARY Climate chage is already affectig Califoria s water resources. Bold steps must be take to reduce greehouse gas emissios. However, eve if emissios eded today, the accumulatio of existig greehouse gases will cotiue to impact climate for years to come. Warmer temperatures, altered patters of precipitatio ad ruoff, ad risig sea levels are icreasigly compromisig the ability to effectively maage water supplies, floods ad other atural resources. Adaptig Califoria s water maagemet systems i respose to climate chage presets oe of the most sigificat challeges of this cetury. Chiook salmo What we kow: Historic hydrologic patters ca o loger be solely relied upo to forecast the water future; Precipitatio ad ruoff patters are chagig, icreasig the ucertaity for water supply ad quality, flood maagemet, ad ecosystem fuctios; Sigificat ad ogoig ivestmets must be made i moitorig, researchig, ad uderstadig the coectio betwee a chagig climate, water resources ad the eviromet; Extreme climatic evets will become more frequet, ecessitatig improvemets i flood protectio, drought preparedess ad emergecy respose; Water ad wastewater maagers ad customers busiesses, istitutios, farms, ad idividuals ca play a key role i water ad eergy efficiecy, the reductio of greehouse gas emissios, ad the stewardship of water ad other atural resources; Impacts ad vulerability will vary by regio, as will the resources available to respod to climate chage, ecessitatig regioal solutios to adaptatio rather tha the proverbial oe-size-fits-all approach; ad A array of adaptive water maagemet strategies, such as those outlied i this White Paper, must be implemeted to better address the risk ad ucertaity of chagig climate patters. 2

5 SUMMARY Califoria s water crisis The history of water i Califoria is oe of coflict ad perseverace. Cocers over the availability, quality ad distributio of water are ot ew, but those cocers are growig. Solutios are becomig more complex as water maagers avigate competig iterests to reliably provide quality water to farms, busiesses, ad homes, while maagig floods, protectig the eviromet, ad complyig with legal ad regulatory requiremets. Califoria water maagemet icludes a array of complicated issues. For example, the Sacrameto-Sa Joaqui Delta, the hub of the state s water supply ad delivery system ad a crossroads of other critical ifrastructure, faces serious ecosystem problems ad substatial seismic risk that threate water supply reliability ad quality. May groudwater basis suffer from overdraft ad pollutio. The Colorado River, a importat source of water for Souther Califoria, has suffered a historic drought that has helped to highlight the chagig hydrology ad its impact o water supplies. Throughout Califoria, flood risk grows as levees age ad more people live ad work i floodplais, ad chagig climate yields higher flood flows. Bottom: Sacrameto River Below: Sowpack o Mt. Whitey What s happeed already? While the exact coditios of future climate chage remai ucertai, there is o doubt about the chages that have already happeed. Aalysis of paleoclimatic data (such as tree-rig recostructios of streamflow ad precipitatio) idicates a history of aturally ad widely varyig hydrologic coditios i Califoria ad the west, icludig a patter of recurrig ad exteded droughts. The average early sprig sowpack i the Sierra Nevada decreased by about 10 percet durig the last cetury, a loss of 1.5 millio acre-feet of sowpack storage (oe acre-foot of water is eough for oe to two familes for oe year). Durig the same period, sea level rose seve iches alog Califoria s coast. Califoria s temperature has rise 1 0 F, mostly at ight ad durig the witer, with higher elevatios experiecig the highest icrease. A disturbig patter has also emerged i flood patters; peak atural flows have icreased o may of the state s rivers durig the last 50 years. At the other extreme, may Souther Califoria cities have experieced their lowest recorded aual precipitatio twice withi the past decade. I a spa of oly two years, Los Ageles experieced both its driest ad wettest years o record. 3

6 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER The Challeges Ahead Risig temperatures affect Califoria s sowpack levels The treds of the last cetury especially the icreases i hydrological variability will likely itesify this cetury, ad abrupt chages i climate could also occur. The Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage (IPCC) otes that the wester Uited States may be especially vulerable to water shortages. While the existig system has some capacity to cope with climate variability, extreme weather evets resultig i icreased droughts ad floods will strai that capacity to meet future eeds. Califoria has ivested i, ad ow depeds upo, a system that relied o historical hydrology as a guide to the future for water supply ad flood protectio. However, due to climate chage, the hydrology of the past is o loger a reliable guide to the future. Loss of atural sowpack storage Oe of the most critical impacts for Califoria water maagemet may be the projected reductio i the Sierra Nevada sowpack Califoria s largest surface reservoir. Sowmelt curretly provides a aual average of 15 millio acre-feet of water, slowly released betwee April ad July each year. Much of the state s water ifrastructure was desiged to capture the slow sprig ruoff ad deliver it durig the drier summer ad fall moths. Based upo historical data ad modelig, DWR projects that the Sierra sowpack will experiece a 25 to 40 percet reductio from its historic average by Climate chage is also aticipated to brig warmer storms that result i less sowfall at lower elevatios, reducig the total sowpack. Historical ad Future Hydrology Use of historical hydrologic data has log bee the stadard of practice for desigig ad operatig water supply ad flood protectio projects. For example, historical data are used for flood forecastig models such as the Natioal Weather Service s River Forecast System Model ad to forecast sowmelt ruoff for water supply. This method of forecastig assumes climate statioarity that the climate of the future will be similar to that of the relatively brief period of historical hydrologic record. Paleoclimatology (which relies upo records from ice sheets, tree rigs, sedimet, ad rocks to determie the past state of Earth s climate system), as well as other research revealig expected impacts of climate chage, idicate that our traditioal hydrologic approach ca o loger be solely relied upo. That is, the hydrologic record caot be used to predict expected icreases i frequecy ad severity of extreme evets such as floods ad droughts. Goig forward, model calibratio or statistical relatio developmet must happe more frequetly, ew forecast-based tools must be developed, ad a stadard of practice that explicitly cosiders climate chage must be adopted. 4

7 the challeges ahead Drought Warmig temperatures, combied with chages i raifall ad ruoff patters will exacerbate the frequecy ad itesity of droughts. Regios that rely heavily upo surface water (rivers, streams, ad lakes) could be particularly affected as ruoff becomes more variable, ad more demad is placed o groudwater. Combied with urbaizatio expadig ito wildlads, climate chage will further stress the state s forests, makig them more vulerable to pests, disease ad chages i species compositio. Alog with drier soils, forests will experiece more frequet ad itese fires, resultig i subsequet chages i vegetatio, ad evetually a reductio i the water supply ad storage capacity beefits of a healthy forest. Climate chage will also affect water demad. Warmer temperatures will likely icrease evapotraspiratio rates ad exted growig seasos, thereby icreasig the amout of water that is eeded for the irrigatio of may crops, urba ladscapig ad evirometal water eeds. Reduced soil moisture ad surface flows will disproportioately affect the eviromet ad other water users that rely oly o aual raifall such as o-irrigated agriculture, livestock grazig o o-irrigated ragelad ad recreatio. Floods The amout of sow is critical for water supply ad evirometal eeds, but so is the timig of sowmelt ruoff ito rivers ad streams. Risig sowlies caused by climate chage will allow more of the Sierra Nevada watersheds to cotribute to peak storm ruoff. High frequecy flood evets (e.g. 10-year floods) i particular will likely icrease with a chagig climate. Alog with reductios i the amout of the sowpack ad accelerated sowmelt, scietists project greater storm itesity, resultig i more direct ruoff ad floodig. Chages i watershed vegetatio ad soil moisture coditios will likewise chage ruoff ad recharge patters. As streamflows ad velocities chage, erosio patters will also chage, alterig chael shapes ad depths, possibly icreasig sedimetatio behid dams, ad affectig habitat ad water quality. With potetial icreases i the frequecy ad itesity of wildlad fires due to climate chage, there is a potetial for more floods followig fire, which icrease sedimet loads ad water quality impacts. 5

8 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER The Colorado River Climate research i the Colorado River basi has show that atural climate variability aloe has resulted i droughts far more severe tha those i the basi s measured historical record. Uderstadig additioal impacts of climate chage o the Southwest s most importat river basi has bee a subject of ogoig iterest i the academic commuity. I additio to impacts o ruoff, aticipated warmig i the arid Southwest is also expected to icrease water demads. For the purposes of federal flood isurace, the Federal Emergecy Maagemet Agecy (FEMA) has traditioally used the 100-year flood evet, which refers to the level of flood flows that has a oe-percet chace of beig exceeded i ay sigle year. As Califoria s hydrology chages, what is curretly cosidered a 100-year flood may strike more ofte, leavig may commuities at greater risk. Moreover, as peak flows ad precipitatio chage over time, climate chage calls ito questio assumptios of statioarity that is used i flood-related statistical aalyses like the 100-year flood (see sidebar o page 4). Plaers will eed to factor a ew level of safety ito the desig, operatio, ad regulatio of flood protectio facilities such as dams, floodways, bypasses ad levees, as well as the desig of local sewers ad storm drais. Water quality Chages i the timig of river flows ad warmig atmospheric temperatures may affect water quality ad water uses i may differet ways. At oe extreme, flood peaks may cause more erosio, resultig i turbidity ad cocetrated pulses of pollutats. This will challege water treatmet plat operatios to produce safe drikig water. Floodig ca also threate the itegrity of water works ifrastructure. At the other extreme, lower summer ad fall flows may result i greater cocetratio of cotamiats. These chages i streamflow timig may require ew approaches to discharge permittig ad o-poit source pollutio. Warmer water will distress may fish species ad could require additioal cold water reservoir releases. Higher water temperatures ca also accelerate some biological ad chemical processes, icreasig growth of algae ad microorgaisms, the depletio of dissolved oxyge, ad various impacts to water treatmet processes. A icrease i the frequecy ad itesity of wildfires will also affect watersheds, vegetatio, ruoff ad water quality. Sea level rise Sea levels are risig, ad it is geerally accepted that this tred will cotiue. However, the exact rate of rise is ukow, due to ogoig scietific ucertaity about the meltig of ice sheets o wester Atarctica ad Greelad ad the potetial for abrupt chages i ocea coditios. Recet peer-reviewed studies estimate a rise of betwee seve to 55 iches by 2100 alog Califoria s coast. 6

9 the challeges ahead The implicatios of a seve-ich rise are dramatically differet tha a rate of rise towards the upper ed of the rage. However, eve a rise at the lower ed of this rage poses Witer storm i souther Sierra Nevada a icreased risk of storm surge ad floodig for moutai rage Califoria s coastal residets ad ifrastructure, icludig may of the state s wastewater treatmet plats. Moreover, sea level rise ca cotribute to catastrophic levee failures i the Delta, which have great potetial to iudate commuities, damage ifrastructure, ad iterrupt water supplies throughout the state. Eve without levee failures, Delta water supplies ad aquatic habitat will be affected due to saltwater itrusio. A icrease i the peetratio of seawater ito the Delta will further degrade drikig ad agricultural water quality ad alter ecosystem coditios. More freshwater releases from upstream reservoirs will be required to repel the sea to maitai saliity levels for muicipal, idustrial ad agricultural uses. Alteratively, chages i upstream ad i-delta diversios, exports from the Delta, ad improved coveyace through or aroud the Delta may be eeded. Sea level rise may also affect drikig water supplies for coastal commuities due to the itrusio of seawater ito overdrafted coastal aquifers. Hydroelectric geeratio Climate chage will reduce the reliability of Califoria s hydroelectricity operatios, which, accordig to the Califoria Climate Actio Registry ad the Califoria Air Resources Board, is the state s largest source of greehouse gas emissios-free eergy. Chages i the timig of iflows to reservoirs may exceed geeratio capacity, forcig water releases over spillways ad resultig i lost opportuities to geerate hydropower. Higher sow elevatios, decreased sowpack, ad earlier meltig may result i less water available for clea power geeratio durig hot summer moths, whe eergy demad is highest. The impact is compouded overall by aticipated icreased eergy cosumptio due to higher temperatures ad greater water demads i summer whe less water is available. The potetial for legthier droughts may also lower reservoir levels below that which is ecessary for power geeratio. Thermalito Diversio Dam Powerplat Dam Safety Implemeted by DWR s Divisio of Safety of Dams (DSOD), Califoria has oe of the most comprehesive dam safety programs i the world. Prelimiary assessmets by DSOD of how climate chage may potetially impact dam safety reveal that icreased safety precautios may be eeded to adapt systems to higher witer ruoff, frequet fluctuatio of water levels, ad the potetial for additioal sedimet ad debris from drought-related fires. Additioally, climate chage will impact the ability of dam operators to estimate extreme flood evets. 7

10 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER The Imperative to Act As uderstadig of climate chage improves, the challege for Califoria s water commuity is to develop ad implemet strategies that improve resiliecy, reduce risk, ad icrease sustaiability for water ad flood maagemet systems ad the ecosystems upo which they deped. Califoria water maagemet systems have provided the foudatio for the state s ecoomic vitality for more tha 100 years, providig water supply, saitatio, electricity, recreatio ad flood protectio. With the state s water resources already stressed, additioal stress from climate chage will oly itesify the competitio for clea, reliable water supplies. While doig its part to reduce greehouse gas emissios ad expad the use of clea eergy sources, Califoria s water commuity must cocetrate o adaptatio strategies to respod to the aticipated chages. The IPCC s Fourth Assessmet Report (2007) states that adaptatio will be ecessary to address impacts resultig from the warmig which is already uavoidable due to past emissios. As uderstadig of climate chage improves, the challege for Califoria s water commuity is to develop ad implemet strategies that improve resiliecy, reduce risk, ad icrease sustaiability for water ad flood maagemet systems ad the ecosystems upo which they deped. Goveror Schwarzeegger sigig the Global Warmig Solutios Act (AB 32) i Mitigatio Respose The mitigatio respose to climate chage, or the reductio of greehouse gas emissios that cotribute to our chagig climate, has received more iteratioal attetio to date tha adaptatio. O a global scale, greehouse gas emissios must be reduced to slow the effects of warmig ad climate chage. Califoria is leadig the atio to eact major greehouse gas reductios o a ambitious timelie. I 2006, Goveror Arold Schwarzeegger ad the Califoria Legislature eacted Assembly Bill (AB) 32 - The Global Warmig Solutios Act. The law requires a statewide cap o greehouse gas emissios, reductios i emissios from major sources, ad the developmet of a madatory reportig system for these emissios. While water geerates much of the state s electricity, accordig to the Califoria Eergy Commissio (CEC), water-related eergy use i Califoria also cosumes approximately 20 percet of the state s electricity, ad 30 percet of the state s o-power plat atural gas (i.e. atural gas ot used to produce electricity). The CEC also foud that most of the eergy itesity of water use i Califoria is i the ed uses by the customer (e.g. heatig, processig, ad pressurizig water). I fact, the CEC states that 75 percet of the electricity ad early all of the atural gas use related to water i Califoria is associated with the ed use of water, mostly for water heatig. The Goveror s Climate Actio Team is overseeig the implemetatio of AB 32 icludig a multi-agecy Water-Eergy subgroup tasked with the developmet of greehouse gas mitigatio strategies for eergy cosumptio related to water use.

11 STRATEGIES Fortuately, there are multiple strategies that ca help reduce the risks preseted by climate chage. To be successful, these adaptatio strategies must be wellcoordiated at the state, regioal ad local levels i order to maximize their effect. No sigle project or strategy ca adequately address the challeges Califoria faces, ad tradeoffs must be explicitly ackowledged ad decided upo. That said, plaig ad ivestig ow i a comprehesive set of actios that iforms water maagers ad provides system diversity ad resiliece will help prepare Califoria for future climate ucertaity. The Real McCoy ferry crossig Cache Slough, carryig traffic just upstream of Rio Vista CO 2 cocetratio, temperature, ad sea level cotiue to rise log after emissios are reduced Magitude of respose CO 2 emissios peak 0 to 100 years Sea-level rise due to ice meltig: several milleia Sea-level rise due to thermal expasio: ceturies to milleia Temperature stabilizatio: a few ceturies CO 2 stabilizatio: 100 to 300 years CO 2 emissios Today 100 years Time take to reach equilibrium 1,000 years Source: Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage 9

12 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER Adaptatio Strategies The followig pages preset 10 climate chage adaptatio strategies for Califoria s water. The strategies fall uder four major categories: Ivestmet, Regioal, Statewide ad Improvig Maagemet ad Decisio-Makig Capacity....climate chage presets a ogoig risk that requires a log-term commitmet of fudig that is properly matched to aticipated expeditures, beeficiaries ad resposible parties. Ivestmet Strategy Adaptive resposes to climate chage will ot come without a cost. Climate chage magifies the problems that exist with a agig water ifrastructure ad growig populatio. While recet bod measures have provided a dow paymet for improvig Califoria s water ad flood systems, climate chage presets a ogoig risk that requires a log-term commitmet of fudig that is properly matched to aticipated expeditures, beeficiaries ad resposible parties. Strategy 1: Provide Sustaiable Fudig for Statewide ad Itegrated Regioal Water Maagemet The State Legislature should iitiate a formal assessmet of state ad local fiacig mechaisms to provide a cotiuous ad stable source of reveue to sustai the programs described herei. Activities i particular eed of certaity ad cotiuity i fudig iclude regioal water plaig, ispectio, maiteace, repair, ad rehabilitatio of flood maagemet facilities, observatioal etworks ad water-related climate chage adaptatio research. Levee repair site o Sacrameto River 10

13 STRATEGIES Regioal Strategies Califoria spas multiple climate zoes ragig from moutai to coastal. Because of this diversity, each regio of the state will experiece uique impacts from climate chage. For some, watershed health will be the chief cocer. Other areas will be affected by saltwater itrusio. Regios that deped heavily upo water imports will eed strategies to cope with greater ucertaity i supply. Ecoomic ad evirometal impacts deped upo locatio, so adaptatio strategies must be regioally appropriate. Strategy 2: Fully Develop the Potetial of Itegrated Regioal Water Maagemet Itegrated Regioal Water Maagemet (IRWM) plaig offers a framework for water maagers to address water-related challeges ad provide for future eeds. Over the past decade, Califoria has improved its uderstadig of the value of regioal plaig ad made sigificat steps to implemet IRWM. Formally, IRWM is a comprehesive approach for determiig the appropriate mix of water demad ad supply maagemet optios ad water quality actios. This approach provides reliable water supplies at lowest reasoable cost ad with highest beefits for ecoomic developmet, evirometal quality ad other Suspeded irrigatio system societal objectives. Moreover, if appropriately developed ad implemeted, IRWM plas i combiatio with other regioal plaig efforts for trasportatio ad lad use ca serve as the basis for broader commuity adaptatio plas for climate chage. Sa Joaqui River 11

14 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER The state will ecourage through both fiacial ad techical assistace IRWM plaig ad implemetatio activities that adapt water maagemet to a chagig climate. By 2011, all IRWM plas should idetify strategies that ca improve the coordiatio of local groudwater storage ad bakig with local surface storage ad other water supplies such as recycled muicipal water, surface ruoff ad floodflows, urba ruoff ad stormwater, imported water, water trasfers, ad desaliated groudwater ad seawater. IRWM is a comprehesive approach for determiig the appropriate mix of water demad ad supply maagemet optios ad water quality actios to provide reliable water supplies at lowest reasoable cost ad with highest beefits for ecoomic developmet, evirometal quality ad other societal objectives. By 2011, all IRWM plas should iclude specific elemets to adapt to a chagig climate, icludig: O A assessmet of the regio s vulerability to the log-term icreased risk ad ucertaity associated with climate chage. - A itegrated flood maagemet compoet. - A drought compoet that assumes, util more accurate iformatio is available, a 20 percet icrease i the frequecy ad duratio of future dry coditios. O Aggressive coservatio ad efficiecy strategies. O Itegratio with lad use policies that: - Help restore atural processes i watersheds to icrease ifiltratio, slow ruoff, improve water quality ad augmet the atural storage of water. - Ecourage low-impact developmet that reduces water demad, captures ad reuses stormwater ad urba ruoff, ad icreases water supply reliability. O A pla for etities withi a regio to share water supplies ad ifrastructure durig emergecies such as droughts. Large water ad wastewater utilities should coduct a assessmet of their carbo footprit ad cosider implemetatio of strategies described i the draft AB 32 Scopig Pla to reduce greehouse gas emissios. To take advatage of a existig framework ad process for calculatig their carbo footprit, these utilities should joi the Climate Actio Registry. 12

15 STRATEGIES Strategy 3: Aggressively Icrease Water Use Efficiecy Usig water efficietly is a foudatioal actio for water maagemet, oe that serves to mitigate ad adapt to climate chage. Water coservatio reduces water demad, wastewater discharges, ad ca reduce eergy demad ad greehouse gas emissios. Efficiet water use ca help commuities cope with water shortages that may result from climate chage, thus reducig ecoomic ad evirometal impacts of water shortages. Water use efficiecy must be a corerstoe of every water agecy s water portfolio. As directed by Goveror Schwarzeegger, DWR i collaboratio with the Water Boards, the Califoria Eergy Commissio (CEC), the Califoria Public Utilities Commissio, the Califoria Departmet of Public Health, ad other agecies, are developig ad will implemet strategies to achieve a statewide 20 percet reductio i per capita water use by O By 2010, all Urba Water Maagemet Plas must iclude provisios to fud ad implemet all ecoomic, feasible, ad legal urba best maagemet practices established by the Califoria Urba Water Coservatio Coucil (CUWCC) (see sidebar). Model Water Efficiet Ladscape Ordiace The Water Coservatio i Ladscapig Act of 2006, Assembly Bill 1881, requires DWR to update the existig Model Water Efficiet Ladscape Ordiace (model ordiace) ad adopt the model ordiace by Jauary 1, Each local agecy is required to adopt either the updated model ordiace or its ow local ladscape ordiace that is at least as effective by Jauary 1, DWR is developig the updated model ordiace to reflect ew Drought tolerat ladscapig i Souther Califoria techology ad advaces i ladscape water maagemet ad to icrease outdoor water coservatio through improved ladscape desig, maagemet ad maiteace. The ordiace provides guidace to local agecies i developig ad adoptig ladscape ordiaces leadig to water savigs, which will reduce water demad, waste ad water-related eergy use. Coservatio Urba Best Maagemet Practices I 1991, water suppliers ad evirometal orgaizatio members of the CUWCC reached agreemet o a series of Best Maagemet Practices (BMPs) that defie urba water coservatio measures ad implemetatio levels. The BMPs defie required actios or goals ad are ow widely accepted as the miimum level of coservatio effort for most water suppliers i Califoria. The BMPs are iteded to reduce log-term urba demads from what they would have bee without implemetatio of these practices. The 14 BMPs iclude residetial ultra-low flush toilet replacemet programs, coservatio pricig, large ladscape coservatio, ad high efficiecy clothes washer rebates. The CUWCC is curretly i the process of revisig ad updatig the BMPs. More iformatio is at 13

16 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER Coservatio Agricultural Efficiet Water Maagemet Practices I 1996, the Agricultural Water Maagemet Coucil prepared a list of agricultural water best maagemet practices kow as Efficiet Water Maagemet Practices (EWMPs). The EWMPs fall uder three major categories: geerally applicable, coditioally applicable ad other, ad iclude the followig: preparatio ad adoptio of a water maagemet pla pump testig ad evaluatio caal ad ditch liig implemetatio of tail-water recovery systems O All local govermets are required by statute to adopt the State Model Water Efficiet Ladscape Ordiace (MWELO) or equivalet (see sidebar). Because the model ordiace oly addresses ew developmet, local govermets must pursue coservatio programs to reduce water use o existig ladscapes. O Notwithstadig other water maagemet objectives, local ad regioal water use efficiecy programs agricultural, residetial, commercial, idustrial ad istitutioal should emphasize those measures that reduce both water ad eergy cosumptio. These agecies, i coordiatio with the rest of the Water-Eergy subgroup of the Goveror s Climate Actio Team ad the CUWCC, will develop urba water use efficiecy recommedatios for icorporatio ito the Califoria Water Pla Update Agricultural etities should apply all feasible Efficiet Water Maagemet Practices (EWMPs) to reduce water demad ad improve the quality of draiage ad retur flows, ad report o implemetatio i their water maagemet plas. Recycled water is a drought-proof water maagemet strategy that may also be a eergy efficiet optio i some regios. use of real-time irrigatio schedulig ad evapotraspiratio data beeficial use of recycled water optimizatio of cojuctive use of groud water ad surface water supplies icetivized pricig Additioal iformatio ad the full list of the EWMPs ca be foud olie at O I those regios, wastewater ad water agecies should collaboratively adopt policies ad develop facility plas that promote the use of recycled water for all appropriate, cost-effective uses while protectig public health. O I cosultatio with DWR ad the Departmet of Public Health, the Water Boards should idetify opportuities to optimize water recyclig cosistet with existig permittig authority. The State Water Resources Cotrol Board (SWRCB) ad the Califoria Public Utilities Commissio are authorized to impose water coservatio measures i permittig ad other proceedigs to esure attaimet of these coservatio efforts. Additioally, the Legislature should authorize ad fud ew icetive-based programs to promote the widespread ad maistream adoptio of aggressive water coservatio by urba ad agricultural water systems ad their users. 14

17 How climate chage impacts a watershed FLOODS A icrease i extreme weather will lead to higher witer river flows, ruoff ad floodig. HYDROELECTRIC POWER Chages i flow decrease clea power geeratio. SNOWPACK A 25% reductio of sowpack will chage water supply. RIVER FLOW Chages i river flow impacts water supply, water quality, fisheries, ad recreatio activities. DROUGHT Higher temperatures ad chages i precipitatio will lead to droughts. AGRICULTURE Icreased demad for irrigatio. DELTA LEVEES Sea level rise will threate Delta levees. HABITAT Warmer river temperatures stress cold-water species such as salmo. Sa Fracisco Bay GROUNDWATER Lower water tables due to hydrologic chages ad greater demad cause some shallow wells to go dry. WATER USE Demad for agriculture, urba ad evirometal water will icrease. WATER QUALITY Salt water itrusio from risig sea levels will affect the Delta ad coastal aquifers. 15

18 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER Statewide Strategies Oroville Dam Califoria has a uparalleled water ifrastructure system that stores ad coveys water, maages flood flows, ad itercoects may of the state s regios. However, curret water resources ifrastructure is already straied to meet existig, competig objectives for water supply, flood protectio, evirometal protectio, water quality, hydropower ad recreatio. I a chagig climate, the coflicts betwee competig iterests are eve greater as supplies become less reliable. This system of reservoirs, caals, flood bypasses ad levees must be modified ad maaged differetly to accommodate the icreased variability brought by climate chage. As the predictio of climate chage impacts will ever be perfect, flexibility must be a fudametal tactic, especially regardig water system operatios. Flood systems throughout the state must be upgraded ad maaged to accommodate the higher variability of flood flows, to protect public safety, the ecoomy ad ecosystems. Strategy 4: Practice ad Promote Itegrated Flood Maagemet May Califorias already face a uacceptable risk of floodig. Catastrophic floodig withi the Cetral Valley could mirror the ecoomic, social ad evirometal damages caused by Hurricae Katria i Millios of people i Califoria s Cetral Valley live behid or deped upo levees to protect them, with populatios i these regios cotiuig to grow. Climate chage will icrease the state s flood risk by causig a shift toward more itese witer storms which could produce higher peak flows. Flood systems throughout the state must be upgraded ad maaged to accommodate the higher variability of flood flows, to protect public safety, the ecoomy ad ecosystems. Flood maagemet systems must better utilize atural floodplai processes. Thus, flood maagemet should be itegrated with watershed maagemet o ope space, agricultural, wildlife areas, ad other low desity lads to lesse flood peaks, reduce sedimetatio, temporarily store floodwaters ad recharge aquifers, ad restore evirometal flows. Liberty Islad 16

19 STRATEGIES 175 America River Ruoff Aual Maximum 3-Day Flow 150 Prior to 1950, o evets greater tha 100,000 cfs After 1950, five evets greater tha 100,000 cfs Folsom Dam completed 125 1,000 cfs Water Year Data from U.S. Army Corps of Egieers, Sacrameto District The five highest floods of record o the America River have occurred sice The improved performace of existig water ifrastructure caot be achieved by ay sigle agecy, ad will require the explicit cooperatio of may agecies. Systemwide operatioal coordiatio ad cooperatio must be streamlied to respod to extreme evets that may result from climate chage. Successful system reoperatio will require that the beefits ad tradeoffs of such actios are evidet to federal ad local parters. The state will establish a System Reoperatio Task Force comprised of state persoel, federal agecy represetatives ad appropriate stakeholders that will: O Quatify the potetial costs ad beefits ad impacts of system reoperatio for water supply reliability, flood cotrol, hydropower, water quality, fish passage, cold water maagemet for fisheries ad other ecosystem eeds; 17

20 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER System Reoperatio Califoria s water resources system icludes both physical elemets (such as reservoirs, aquifers, rivers, pumpig plats, ad caals) ad o-physical elemets (such as operatig rules, lad use practices, ad evirometal regulatios). The additio or removal of a structural elemet or a chage i a o-structural elemet ofte provides opportuities to optimize the operatioal beefits of other elemets of the system. The key to system reoperatio is to itegrate ad coect idividual system elemets to illustrate how chages i use of oe elemet ca be balaced by chages i the use of other elemets. The largest challege to system reoperatio is that idividual system elemets are ofte owed ad operated by idepedet etities. O Support the update of U.S. Army Corps of Egieers operatios guidelies for Cetral Valley reservoirs; O Support the update of flood frequecy aalyses o major rivers ad streams; O Evaluate the eed to amed flow objectives; O Expad the study of forecast-based operatios for icorporatio ito reservoir operatios; O Iclude watershed level aalyses that detail localized costs ad beefits; ad O Idetify key istitutioal obstacles that limit beefits. To coordiate Califoria s water supply ad flood maagemet operatios, state ad federal agecies collaboratively established the Joit Operatios Ceter (JOC). To successfully meet the challeges posed by climate chage, the JOC capacity must be expaded to improve tools ad observatios to better support decisio-makig for idividual evets ad seasoal ad iteraual operatios, icludig water trasfers. The JOC should be ehaced to further improve commuicatios ad coordiatio durig emergecies, such as floods ad droughts. By Jauary 1, 2012, DWR will collaboratively develop a Cetral Valley Flood Protectio Pla that icludes actios to improve itegrated flood maagemet ad cosiders the expected impacts of climate chage. The pla will provide strategies for greater flood protectio ad evirometal resiliece, icludig: O Emergecy preparedess, respose, evacuatio ad recovery actios; O Opportuities ad icetives for expadig, or icreasig the use of floodway corridors to reduce stress o critical urba levees ad provide for habitat, ope space, recreatio ad agricultural lad preservatio; O Optios ad recommedatios to provide at least 200-year level protectio for all urba areas withi the Sacrameto-Sa Joaqui Valley; 18

21 STRATEGIES O Icreased use of setback levees, flood easemets, zoig, ad lad acquisitios to provide greater public safety, floodplai storage, habitat ad system flexibility; O Flood isurace requiremets to address residual risk; O Extesive, grassroots public outreach ad educatio; ad O The itegratio of flood maagemet with all aspects of water resources maagemet ad evirometal stewardship. All at-risk commuities should develop, adopt, practice ad regularly evaluate formal flood emergecy preparedess, respose, evacuatio ad recovery plas. Local govermets should implemet lad use policies that decrease flood risk. O Local lad use agecies should update their Geeral Plas to address icreased flood risks posed by climate chage. Geeral Plas should cosider a appropriate risk tolerace ad plaig horizo for each locality. O Local govermets should site ew developmet outside of udeveloped floodplais uless the floodplai has at least a sustaiable, 200-year level of flood protectio. O Local govermets should use low-impact developmet techiques to ifiltrate ad store ruoff. O Local govermets should iclude flood-resistat desig requiremets i local buildig codes. Adaptive Capacity ad Resiliece Adaptive capacity is the ability of systems, orgaizatios, ad idividuals to: adjust to actual or potetial adverse chages ad evets, take advatage of existig ad emergig opportuities that support essetial fuctios or relatioships, ad/or cope with adverse cosequeces, mitigate damages, ad recover from system failures. Resiliece is the capacity of a resource or atural system to retur to prior coditios after a disturbace. Levee break at Joes Tract 19

22 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER Egieer reviews flood data at DWR s Joit Operatios Ceter FloodSAFE Califoria is a multi-faceted, strategic iitiative to improve public safety through itegrated flood maagemet. Primarily fuded by Propositios 1E ad 84, the FloodSAFE program is a collaborative statewide effort to accomplish the followig five broad goals: Califoria Coservatio Corps workers stregthe a levee durig a high water evet Reduce the Chace of Floodig Reduce the frequecy ad size of floods that could damage Califoria commuities, homes ad property, ad critical public ifrastructure. Reduce the Cosequeces of Floodig Take actios prior to floodig that will help reduce the adverse cosequeces of floods whe they do occur ad allow for quicker recovery after floodig. Sustai Ecoomic Growth Provide cotiuig opportuities for prudet ecoomic developmet that supports robust regioal ad statewide ecoomies without creatig additioal flood risk. Protect ad Ehace Ecosystems Improve flood maagemet systems i ways that protect, restore, ad where possible, ehace ecosystems ad other public trust resources. Promote Sustaiability Take actios that improve compatibility with the atural eviromet ad reduce the expected costs to operate ad maitai flood maagemet systems ito the future. 20 Additioal iformatio is available at

23 Strategy 5: Ehace ad Sustai Ecosystems Reliable water supplies ad resiliet flood protectio deped upo ecosystem sustaiability. Buildig adaptive capacity for both public safety ad ecosystems requires that water ad flood maagemet projects maitai ad ehace biological diversity ad atural ecosystem Setback levee beig costructed ear Bear River processes. Water supply ad flood maagemet systems are sigificatly more sustaiable ad ecoomical over time whe they preserve, ehace ad restore ecosystem fuctios, thereby creatig itegrated systems that suffer less damage from, ad recover more quickly after, severe atural disruptios. By reducig existig, o-climate stressors o the eviromet, ecosystems will have more capacity to adapt to ew stressors ad ucertaities brought by climate chage. Water maagemet systems should protect ad reestablish cotiguous habitat ad migratio ad movemet corridors for plat ad aimal species related to rivers ad riparia or wetlad ecosystems. IRWM ad regioal flood maagemet plas should icorporate corridor coectivity ad restoratio of ative aquatic ad terrestrial habitats to support icreased biodiversity ad resiliece for adaptig to a chagig climate. Flood maagemet systems should seek to reestablish atural hydrologic coectivity betwee rivers ad their historic floodplais. Setback levees ad bypasses help to retai ad slowly release floodwater, facilitate groudwater recharge, provide seasoal aquatic habitat, support corridors of ative riparia forests ad create shaded riverie ad terrestrial habitats. Carbo sequestratio withi large, vegetated floodplai corridors may also assist the state i meetig greehouse gas emissios reductios madated by AB 32. The state should work with dam owers ad operators, federal resource maagemet agecies, ad other stakeholders to evaluate opportuities to itroduce or reitroduce aadromous fish to upper watersheds. Reestablishig aadromous fish, such as salmo, upstream of dams may provide flexibility i providig cold water coditios dowstream, ad thereby help iform system reoperatio. Cadidate watersheds should have sufficiet habitat to support spawig ad rearig of self-sustaiig populatios. Sheep grazig i the Yolo Bypass, west of Sacrameto 21

24 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER The state should idetify ad strategically prioritize for protectio lads at the boudaries of the Sa Fracisco Bay ad Sacrameto-Sa Joaqui Delta that will provide the habitat rage for tidal wetlads to adapt to sea level rise. Such lads help maitai estuarie ecosystem fuctios ad create atural lad features that act as storm buffers, protectig people ad property from flood damages related to sea level rise ad storm surges. The state should prioritize ad expad Delta islad subsidece reversal ad lad accretio projects to create equilibrium betwee lad ad estuary elevatios alog select Delta friges ad islads. Sedimet-soil accretio is a cost-effective, atural process that ca help sustai the Delta ecosystem ad protect Delta commuities from iudatio. The state should cosider actios to protect, ehace ad restore upper watershed forests ad meadow systems that act as atural water ad sow storage. This measure ot oly improves water supply reliability ad protects water quality, but also safeguards sigificat high elevatio habitats ad migratory corridors. Left: Sacrameto-Sa Joaqui Delta, with Mout Diablo i backgroud Below: Los Vaqueros Reservoir 22

25 STRATEGIES Strategy 6: Expad Water Storage ad Cojuctive Maagemet of Surface ad Groudwater Resources Surface ad groudwater resources must be maaged cojuctively to meet the challeges posed by climate chage. Additioal water storage ad coveyace improvemets are ecessary to provide flexibility to facilitate water trasfers betwee regios ad to provide better flood maagemet, water quality ad system reliability, i respose to daily ad seasoal variatios ad ucertaities i water supply ad use. Historically, Califoria has depeded upo its groudwater, particularly durig droughts. However, may aquifers are cotamiated ad must be remediated before they ca be used as water baks. Groudwater resources will ot be immue to climate chage; i fact, historic patters of groudwater recharge may chage cosiderably. Climate chage may worse droughts, so more efficiet groudwater basi maagemet will be ecessary to avoid additioal overdraft, to take advatage of opportuities to store water udergroud ad elimiate existig overdraft. Better maagemet of surface storage reservoirs ca also provide beefits i a chagig climate. Amog the beefits are capturig higher peak flows, providig cold water releases for fish, repulsig seawater itrusio to protect drikig water quality, geeratig clea hydroelectricity, ad offsettig the loss of sowpack storage with icreased water storage. Cojuctive Maagemet Cojuctive maagemet of surface water ad groudwater refers to the joit ad coordiated maagemet of both resources. Surface water ad groudwater resources typically differ sigificatly i their availability, quality, maagemet eeds, ad developmet ad use costs. Maagig both resources together, rather tha i isolatio from oe aother, allows water maagers to use the advatages of both resources for maximum beefit. Califoria must expad its available water storage icludig both surface ad groudwater storage. DWR will icorporate climate chage cosideratios as it works with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamatio (Reclamatio) ad local agecies to complete surface storage feasibility studies ad evirometal documetatio for the Sites Reservoir ad Upper Sa Joaqui River Basi Storage Ivestigatios. DWR will also make climate chage recommedatios as it works cooperatively with Cotra Costa Water District o the Los Vaqueros Reservoir Expasio Ivestigatio, ad DWR will advise Reclamatio o climate chage matters o the Shasta Lake Water Resources Ivestigatio. Groudwater pump 23

26 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER State, federal, ad local agecies should develop cojuctive use maagemet plas that itegrate floodplai maagemet, groudwater bakig ad surface storage. Such plas could help facilitate system reoperatio ad provide a framework for the developmet of local projects that are beeficial across regios. Local agecies should develop ad implemet AB 3030 Groudwater Maagemet Plas as a fudametal compoet of IRWM plas. Local agecies must have such groudwater maagemet plas to: O Effectively use aquifers as water baks; O Protect ad improve water quality; O Prevet seawater itrusio of coastal aquifers caused by sea level rise; O Moitor withdrawals ad levels; O Coordiate with other regioal plaig efforts to idetify ad pursue opportuities for iterregioal cojuctive maagemet; O Avert otherwise ievitable coflicts i water supply; ad O Provide for sustaiable groudwater use. Local lad use agecies should adopt ordiaces that protect the atural fuctioig of groudwater recharge areas. Irrigatio i Califoria s Cetral Valley 24

27 STRATEGIES Strategy 7: Fix Delta Water Supply, Quality ad Ecosystem Coditios The Sacrameto-Sa Joaqui Delta is a vital water supply for 25 millio Califorias, a diverse ad complex ecosystem, home to may commuities ad ultimately is a place uique to Califoria. The Delta is ot cosidered sustaiable uder curret maagemet efforts. Warmer temperatures, sea level rise ad higher flood flows brought by climate chage threate to further erode the Delta s sustaiability. The Delta Visio Task Force published its visio for the Delta i December I that visio, the Task Force described a future i which the Delta will cotiue to thrive over the comig geeratios, despite major challeges icludig climate chage. The Task Force is workig o a strategic pla that will outlie the recommedatios to realize the Task Force s visio. I additio to the work of Delta Visio, there are three other major public processes also focusig o the Delta: the Bay-Delta Coservatio Pla (BDCP), the Delta Risk Maagemet Strategy (DRMS) ad the Delta Regioal Ecosystem Restoratio Implemetatio Pla (DRERIP) (see ext page). State agecies ad stakeholders should cotiue to support the work of the Delta Visio Task Force, BDCP, DRMS, ad DRERIP, ad ecourage the icorporatio of adaptive resposes to climate chage for the Delta i all four processes. By Jue 2009, affected state agecies, led by DWR, will iitiate a coordiated effort to ivest i the Delta ecosystem, water coveyace improvemets, flood protectio ad commuity sustaiability i order to achieve a sustaiable Delta. Caadia Geese i Sacrameto-Sa Joaqui Delta 25

28 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER Delta at suset Delta Plaig Processes ad Climate Chage State govermet is curretly ivolved i four major plaig efforts to evaluate Sacrameto- Sa Joaqui Delta ecosystem ad water supply issues ad to recommed strategies ad actios for their improvemet the Delta Visio, Bay-Delta Coservatio Pla (BDCP), Delta Risk Maagemet Strategy (DRMS), ad Delta Regioal Ecosystem Restoratio Implemetatio Pla (DRERIP). These efforts are complemetary but each process has a specific focus. All are cosiderig the impacts of climate chage o the Delta as well as a umber of respose strategies. Together, they should provide a set of adaptive strategies ad actios that are comprehesive, cosistet ad build upo each other to improve the Delta ecosystem ad water supply reliability. The Goveror established Delta Visio i 2006 to develop a durable visio for sustaiable maagemet of the Delta. Over the log term, the Delta Visio process aims to restore ad maitai fuctios ad values that are determied to be importat to the evirometal quality of the Delta ad the ecoomic ad social well beig of the people of the state. I December 2007, the Delta Visio Task Force published its Delta Visio Report comprised of 12 recommedatios ad i October 2008, submitted their Delta Strategic Pla to the Delta Visio Cabiet Commitee. The Cabiet Commitee will provide specific recommedatios to the Goveror ad Legislature by the ed of More iformatio is available at The purpose of the BDCP is to help recover edagered ad sesitive species ad their habitats i the Delta i a way that also provides for sufficiet ad reliable water supplies. The BDCP will (1) idetify ad implemet coservatio strategies to improve the overall ecological health of the Delta, (2) idetify ad implemet ecologically friedly ways to move fresh water through ad/or aroud the Delta, (3) address toxic pollutats, ivasive species ad impairmets to water quality, ad (4) provide a framework to implemet the pla over time. More iformatio is available at DRMS is evaluatig the risks from Delta levee failures ad ways to reduce those risks. Prelimiary evaluatios by DRMS show that the risks from earthquakes ad floods are substatial ad are expected to icrease i the future. I Phase 1, DRMS evaluates the risk ad cosequeces to the Delta ad statewide associated with the failure of Delta levees. I Phase 2, DRMS will evaluate strategies ad actios to reduce risks ad cosequeces. Additioal iformatio is available at The DRERIP is idetifyig restoratio opportuities withi the Delta ad Suisu Marsh ecological restoratio zoes. It applies the Ecosystem Restoratio Program Coservatio Strategy to the Delta, refies existig ad develops ew Delta restoratio actios, ad icludes a coceptual model, implemetatio guidace, program trackig, performace evaluatio, ad adaptive maagemet feedback. Additioal iformatio at 26

29 STRATEGIES Improvig Maagemet ad Decisio-Makig Capacity Determiig the impacts of climate chage o the varyig regios of the state requires that data about our eviromet be collected ad aalyzed i a cosistet ad comprehesive way. Aalysis of past records, curret coditios, ad treds ca help provide a forecast for weather, climate, supply, ad floodig variables. Ufortuately, sesors ad gauges that measure this iformatio, both offshore ad over lad, are curretly iadequate. Strategic ivestmet is eeded i measuremet etworks, data aalysis ad archivig, ad forecast tools that ca support operatioal ad policy decisios by users. Additioally, fudig must be sustaied i all of these areas to preserve the ubroke records that are vital to uderstadig the impacts of climate chage. Strategy 8: Preserve, Upgrade ad Icrease Moitorig, Data Aalysis ad Maagemet Ucertaity i the rate ad magitude of log-term climate chage must be reduced. As oe example, there are curretly large gaps i the hydrologic observatioal etwork (e.g. rai ad sow gauges) i the areas of Califoria most vulerable to climate chage. Improved data aalysis, ad iterpretatio supported by a robust moitorig etwork ca help idetify treds, provide for better real-time system maagemet, ad evaluate ad, if ecessary, correct, adaptatio strategies. For data to be useful i climate moitorig ad climate chage detectio, there must be better ad more cosistet moitorig of critical variables such as temperature, precipitatio, evapotraspiratio, wid, sow level, vegetative cover, soil moisture ad streamflow. Expaded moitorig is especially eeded at high elevatios ad i wilderess areas to observe ad track chages occurrig i the rai/ sow trasitio zoe, which is critical for projectig future water supply. Wester Goverors Associatio I 2006, the Wester Goverors Associatio (WGA) released its report o Water Needs ad Strategies for a Sustaiable Future, which called for member states to take specified actios to icorporate cosideratio of climate chage ito state water maagemet. That documet was followed by a 2008 WGA Next Steps report which further detailed recommedatios to chage for the better the way states ad the federal govermet carry out their respective resposibilities regardig water maagemet i the West. For more iformatio about the implemetatio of the reports recommedatios go to Similarly, improved observatios of atmospheric coditios are eeded to help defie ad better uderstad the mechaisms of the uderlyig atmospheric processes that lead to Califoria s seasoal ad geographic distributio of precipitatio. This will help climate modelers to better project future rai ad sow patters o a regioal scale. Iformatio o water use is curretly limited ad ofte ureliable. Accurate measuremet of water use ca facilitate better water plaig ad maagemet. By 2009, DWR, the state ad regioal Water Boards, the Departmet of Public Health, ad the Califoria Bay-Delta Authority will complete a feasibility study for a water use measuremet database ad reportig system. 27

30 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER PIER I 2003, the Califoria Eergy Commissio created the Califoria Climate Chage Ceter to implemet the Commissio s Public Iterest Eergy Research (PIER) Program log-term climate chage research pla. The Ceter is a virtual research orgaizatio with core research at the Scripps Istitute ad complemetary research at other scietific istitutios i Califoria. Of particular iterest to the water commuity are studies from the 2006 ad upcomig 2008 Bieial Climate Sciece Reports required by Executive Order S-3-05, siged by Goveror Schwarzeegger o Jue 1, Strategy 9: Pla for ad Adapt to Sea Level Rise Of the may impacts of climate chage, sea level rise presets the most difficult plaig challege because of the great ucertaity aroud ice sheet dyamics, ad the resultig rage of cosequeces. I additio, sea level rise depeds upo regioal factors such as lad movemet (e.g. tectoic uplift) ad atmospheric coditios. Much of the Sacrameto-Sa Joaqui Delta cosists of islads that are below sea level ad protected by levees of varyig stability. Risig sea levels icrease pressure o fragile levees ad pose a threat to water quality. Local ad regioal ivestmets i coastal water ad flood maagemet ifrastructure, as well as coastal ad bay wetlads, beaches ad parks, are also vulerable to risig seas. The state will establish a iterim rage of sea level rise projectios for short-term plaig purposes for local, regioal ad statewide projects ad activities. The Resources Agecy, i coordiatio with DWR ad other state agecies, should covee ad support a scietific pael of the Natioal Research Coucil (NRC) to provide expert guidace regardig log-rage sea level rise estimates ad their applicatio to specific Califoria plaig issues. Based upo guidace from the NRC, DWR, i collaboratio with other state agecies, will develop log-rage sea level rise scearios ad respose strategies to be icluded i the Califoria Water Pla Update For more iformatio go to ca.gov/research. 28

31 STRATEGIES Strategy 10: Idetify ad Fud Focused Climate Chage Impacts ad Adaptatio Research ad Aalysis Developig more focused research ca help arrow the rage of ucertaity i climate chage, with a cocetratio o the vulerability of water ad other atural resources. This research will assist i plaig for ew projects, maagemet activities ad policies. I associatio with research istitutios such as the Regioal Itegrated Scieces ad Assessmet ceters, Lawrece Livermore ad Berkeley Natioal Laboratories, ad the Uiversity of Califoria, state agecies should idetify focused research eeds to provide guidace o activities to reduce Califoria s vulerability to climate chage. The state should also explore parterships with the federal govermet, other wester states, ad research istitutios o climate chage adaptatio. Sice some ucertaity will always exist, the state s water supply ad flood maagemet agecies eed to perform sesitivity aalyses of prelimiary plaig studies, ad risk-based aalyses for more advaced plaig studies. As oted earlier, util better iformatio becomes available, local agecies should pla for droughts 20 percet more severe tha historic droughts. For floodig, sesitivity ad risk-based aalyses should cosider a appropriate risk tolerace ad plaig horizo for each idividual situatio. Selectio of climate chage scearios for these aalyses ca be guided by recommedatios of the Goveror s Climate Actio Team. The state should sposor sciece-based, watershed adaptatio research pilot projects to address water maagemet ad ecosystem eeds. Fudig for pilot projects should oly be grated i those regios that have adopted IRWM plas that meet DWR s pla stadards ad have broad stakeholder support. As part of the Califoria Water Pla Update process, every five years DWR will provide revised estimates of chages to sea level, droughts, ad floodig that ca be expected over the followig 25 years. State Capitol, Sacrameto 29

32 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CALIFORNIA S WATER NEXT STEPS CALIFORNIA Water Pla Update 2009 Califoria Water Pla Update 2009 builds upo Update 2005; a strategic pla for maagig Califoria s water that promotes Itegrated Regioal Water Maagemet ad improved statewide water maagemet systems. The Update 2009 collaborative process has at its ceter a steerig committee of 20 state agecies with jurisdictios over Califoria water issues. The improved iteragecy coordiatio provides a robust statewide perspective ad the iclusio of state compaio plas helps iform a added emphasis o climate chage, water quality, ad itegrated flood maagemet. Update 2009 is specifically advised by a Climate Chage Techical Advisory Group composed of scietists ad egieers with climate chage expertise. Fid out more at Califoria Climate Adaptatio StraTegy Buildig upo the recommedatios ad strategies set forth i this documet, the Califoria Resources Agecy is coordiatig the developmet of a statewide, cross-sector Climate Adaptatio Strategy (CAS). The CAS will sythesize the most up-to-date iformatio o expected climate chage impacts to Califoria, provide prelimiary strategies to reduce the state s vulerability to these impacts ad develop plas for short ad log-term actios. For more iformatio please go to 30

33 Ackowledgemets The Departmet of Water Resources wishes to thak the members of the followig groups for the feedback they provided durig the developmet of this documet. Climate Chage Techical Advisory Group of the Califoria Water Pla Update 2009 State Steerig Committee of the Califoria Water Pla Update 2009 Califoria Resources Agecy Climate Team DWR s Climate Chage Matrix Team There are several foudatioal reports ad processes that guide the developmet of climate chage resposes. Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage, Fourth Assessmet Report (2007) Califoria Water Pla Update 2005 ad the draft Update 2009, icludig Regioal Water Quality Cotrol Plas (Basi Plas), DWR ad SWRCB Proceedigs of the Climate Chage Research Needs Workshop, Wester States Water Coucil (2007) Public Iterest Eergy Research Program, Califoria Eergy Commissio Bieial Report, Goveror s Climate Actio Team (2006) Progress o Icorporatig Climate Chage ito Maagemet of Califoria s Water Resources, DWR (2006) Draft FloodSAFE Strategic Pla, DWR (2008) Draft Delta Visio Blue Ribbo Task Force Strategic Pla (2008) Water Needs ad Strategies for a Sustaiable Future, Wester Goverors Associatio (2006) 31