Global discovery trends 1950-2009: What, where and who found them

Global discovery trends 1950-2009: What, where and who found them Richard Schodde Managing Director, Panel Discussion: Exploration expenditures are increasing, but discoveries are not. Why? PDAC 2010, 7 March 2010, Toronto

Overview Discovery trends for the World since 1950. how many deposits were found, what commodities are involved, where were they found and who discovered them? Study covered Non Ferrous Metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni, Co, Mo, Mn etc), Precious Metals (Au, Ag, PGEs), Diamonds, Uranium and Others (Sn, W, Nb, Mineral Sands etc) Have excluded Bulk Minerals (coal, iron ore, bauxite) and Industrial Minerals (kaolin, talc, phosphate, potash etc) Have excluded discovery of satellite deposits feeding into an existing mill within an established mining camp (i.e. count Ekati as one world-class discovery, not 20 small discoveries) Analysis limited to Major deposits (i.e. > 1 mt Cu-equiv, > 100kt Ni, > 1 Moz Au, >10 m carats, >25 kt U 3 O 8 ) Also assessed quality of the discoveries (Tier 1 & Tier 2) 2

Deposit info Data sources & coverage Have a database of 48,800 mineral deposits around the world. Discovery histories on 13,800 deposits Discovery data on 2600 major deposits Discovery data on 1390 major deposits found around the world since 1950, excluding satellite deposits Estimate that the analysis captures ~95% of all major discoveries Also assessed quality of the discoveries (Tier 1 & Tier 2) Exploration expenditures Relied on the Metal Economics Group for exploration spend data post-1992 For prior years, have own estimates, derived from various industry studies (Mackenzie & Doggett, Tilton etc), government agencies (NRCan, ABS, OECD etc) and published company reports 3

How many major deposits were found? 4

Number of mineral discoveries in the World Major deposits found in the World: 1950-2009 Number N = 1390 On average 20 to 30 Major deposits found each year Discovery rate was been significantly lower in last decade Caution: Incomplete discovery data for recent years Source: March 2010 Note: Major defined as >1 mt Cu-equiv, > 1 Moz Au-equiv, > 100 kt Ni, > 10 m carats >25 kt U 3 O 8 Excludes bulk and industrial mineral discoveries 5

Number of discoveries by Region Major deposits found in the World: 1950-2009 Number N = 1390 Caution: Incomplete discovery data for recent years Source: March 2010 Note: Major defined as >1 mt Cu-equiv, > 1 Moz Au-equiv, > 100 kt Ni, > 10 m carats >25 kt U 3 O 8 Excludes bulk and industrial mineral discoveries 6

Number of discoveries by Region Major deposits found in the World: 1950-2008 Over last 20 years there has been a steady shift away from the established countries (Can+USA+Aust) Source: March 2010 Note: Major defined as >1 mt Cu-equiv, > 1 Moz Au-equiv, > 100 kt Ni, > 10 m carats >25 kt U 3 O 8 Excludes bulk and industrial mineral discoveries 7

Number of discoveries in Western World Major deposits found in the Western World: 1950-2009 Number N = 1138 Caution: Incomplete discovery data for recent years Source: March 2010 Note: Major defined as >1 mt Cu-equiv, > 1 Moz Au-equiv, > 100 kt Ni, > 10 m carats >25 kt U 3 O 8 Excludes bulk and industrial mineral discoveries 8

We are spending more on exploration but have less to show for it Exploration expenditures and Major discoveries in the Western World: 1950-2009 Number Exploration $ (2009 $B) N = 1138 Expenditures went up, but discoveries are down Caution: Incomplete discovery data for recent years Note: Major defined as >1 mt Cu-equiv, > 1 Moz Au-equiv, > 100 kt Ni, > 10 m carats >25 kt U 3 O 8 Excludes bulk and industrial mineral discoveries Sources:, and exploration data from 1993 onwards from MEG 9

What commodities were found? 10

Number of discoveries by Commodity Major deposits found in Western World: 1950-2009 Number In recent years most of the discoveries in the Western World were gold N = 1138 Caution: Incomplete discovery data for recent years Source: March 2010 Note: Major defined as >1 mt Cu-equiv, > 1 Moz Au-equiv, > 100 kt Ni, > 10 m carats >25 kt U 3 O 8 11

In the 1980s there was a major shift over to gold exploration Major deposits found in Western World: 1950-2009 Gold currently makes up 60-80% of all major discoveries Source: March 2010 12

Most of the metal found is tied up in a handful of deposits Amount of copper found in primary Cu deposits >0.3 Mt Cu in Western World: 1950-2009 Mt Cu Most of the copper found came from a handful of giant deposits Andina Olympic Dam Escondida Grasberg Collahuasi Oyu Tolgoi Pebble Estimate Source: Sept 09 Note: Chart include minor adjustment for deposits missing from the database 13

Most of the gold found is in deposits >1 Moz Amount of gold found (including by-product Au) in deposits >0.1 Moz in World: 1950-2009 Moz Most ounces found are associated with discoveries >1 Moz. This is where companies should focus their exploration efforts Estimate Note: Chart include minor adjustment for deposits missing from the database Source: Feb 2010 14

The gold industry is struggling to replace the ounces it mines Amount of gold found and mined in the World: 1950-2009 Moz Over the last decade, gold production exceeded gold found. This is not sustainable! Estimate Note: Chart include minor adjustment for deposits missing from the database Not all discoveries turn into mines, and not all gold mined is recovered Source: Feb 2010 15

And at the same time, the average grade of gold found and mined continues to decline Grade (g/t Au) Average grade of gold mined in USA + Canada + Australia + South Africa 6.6 g/t in 1980 Average grade of gold mined in the World 2.0 g/t in 2008 1.8 g/t Average grade of gold discovered in the World (3-Year rolling average for discoveries >1 Moz) 0.92 g/t Note: Primary gold deposits only Sources: Discovery data from Jan 2010 1950-2000 Production data derived from Mudd Nov 2007 2000-10 Production data from GFMS Mine Economics Feb 2010

Gold Discoveries in the World Amount of gold found (including by-product Au) in deposits >0.1 Moz 1950-59 All Years Source: March 2010 17

Gold Discoveries over time Amount of gold found (including by-product Au) in deposits >0.1 Moz 1950-59 Source: March 2010 18

Gold Discoveries over time Amount of gold found (including by-product Au) in deposits >0.1 Moz 1960-69 Key observation is that the industry keeps finding new areas to explore Source: March 2010 19

Gold Discoveries over time Amount of gold found (including by-product Au) in deposits >0.1 Moz Far East Russia Alaska & Yukon China Columbia & Ecuador West Africa Central Africa 2000-09 and current hot spots Source: March 2010 24

How good are these discoveries? 25

Number Only a handful of the discoveries made each year are Company-Makers All Tier 1 & 2 deposits found in the World: 1950-2009 N Tier1 = 114 N Tier2 = 281 Recent Tier 1 discoveries include 2007: Los Sulfatos (Cu) 2006 : Fruta del Norte (Au), La Colosa (Au) and Rossing South (U 3 O 8 ) 2004 : Moto (Au) and Eucla (Mineral Sands) 2002: Oyu Tolgoi (Cu-Au) and Pebble (Cu-Au) 2001: Lagunas Norte (Au) and Aurora (Au) 2000: La Sampala (Ni) The industry only finds 5-10 Tier 1&2 deposits each year and only 1-2 of these are World-Class Caution: Incomplete discovery data for recent years Source: March 2010 Note: Excludes bulk and industrial mineral discoveries 26

Who made the discoveries? 27

Who made the discoveries Major deposits found in the Western World: 1950-2009 Number N = 1138 Caution: Incomplete discovery data for recent years Note: Major defined as >1 mt Cu-equiv, > 1 Moz Au-equiv, > 100 kt Ni, > 10 m carats >25 kt U 3 O 8 Source: March 2010 Have pro-rated shared discoveries 28

Who made the discoveries Major deposits found in the Western World: 1950-2009 Junior Companies now account for over half of all Major discoveries in the Western World Note: Major defined as >1 mt Cu-equiv, > 1 Moz Au-equiv, > 100 kt Ni, > 10 m carats >25 kt U 3 O 8 Have pro-rated the unknown deposits across the other discovery categories Source: March 2010 29

Conclusions Since 1980, the main game in-town has been gold Currently 60-80% of all major discoveries are gold The current hot spots for gold are Columbia/Ecuador, West Africa and Central Africa Very few major lead-zinc, diamond or uranium deposits have been found in the last decade In the last 20 years there has been a steady shift away from the established countries In the 1980s, Canada + USA + Australia accounted for over half of all major discoveries. Now it is less than 20% Since the 1990 s Juniors have played a significant role in discovery Currently over half of all major discoveries in the Western World are made by Junior companies and small producers In spite of record exploration expenditures, the rate of discovery has declined over the last decade Industry now finding less than 10-20 Major deposits per year Only 1-2 of these are World-Class The gold industry is struggling to replace the ounces it mines The size and grade of the discoveries (for gold) is declining 30

Contact details Richard Schodde Managing Director Melbourne, Australia Email: Richard@MinExConsulting.com QUESTIONS? 31