1ST VIEW 1 July 2013
Table of Contents Renewals 1 July 2013 Introduction 3 Property Territory and Comments 4 Rates 5 Pricing Trend Graphs 6 Casualty Territory and Comments 7 Rates 8 Specialties Line of Business and Comments 9 Rates 10 United States Workers Compensation Comments and Rates 11 Capital Markets Comments 11 1st View This thrice yearly publication delivers the very first view on current market conditions to our readers. In addition to real-time event Responses, our clients receive our news brief, The Daily Willis ReView, periodic newsletters, white papers and other reports. Willis Re Global resources, local delivery For over 100 years, Willis Re has proudly served its clients, helping them obtain better value solutions and make better reinsurance decisions. As one of the world s premier global reinsurance brokers, with 40 locations worldwide, Willis Re provides local service with the full backing of an integrated global reinsurance broker. Page 2 of 12
Supply Chases Demand The growing momentum behind the emergence of capital markets has escalated, accentuating the increased supply of capital that is chasing a much slower growth in demand for Property catastrophe capacity. Traditional reinsurers, unprepared to see their longstanding market positions eroded by new capital entrants, have started to take robust defensive measures. Despite the impact of the US$ 30 billon Superstorm Sandy loss, the key battleground is in U.S. property catastrophe where capital markets have been most active to date. Traditional reinsurers defensive actions include offering price reductions, larger line sizes and, in some cases, broadening of cover by offering options such as multi-year agreements, extended hours clauses and additional reinstatements. Capacity for aggregate cover is also more widely available. As most programs are well over-placed, buyers are facing the challenge of signing down reinsurers shares. Collateralized markets continue to evolve their product, affording primary buyers increased flexibility in coverage while minimizing basis risk. The trend for traditional reinsurers to set up sidecar-type structures, providing thirdparty capital access to the risk they are accepting, continues to expand. Similarly, the catastrophe bond market continues to grow rapidly and is on track to surpass the previous record high issuance in 2007 of US$ 7.2 billion. With the strong inflow of new funds, the challenge for ILS fund managers is how to source enough demand to satisfy investor demand for ILS products. This is proving challenging, as growth in the largest catastrophe market, the United States, remains modest, as does the take up rate of capital market solutions in other markets despite the increasing competiveness of price as compared to traditional reinsurance products. It is sobering to note that only a.5% allocation of global pension funds assets under management into ILS products would be sufficient to deliver US $150 billion of ILS capacity. This represents a substantial increase on the current 2013 year end estimate of US $42 billion of ILS limit in force. The softening of property catastrophe rates and traditional reinsurers desire to maintain their market positions is spilling over into other classes. Casualty markets are seeing substantial increases in capacity around the world and consequently, prices are softening, despite persistent concerns about the current low interest rate environment. Losses caused by U.S. tornadoes and European floods during the second quarter are likely to only have a modest impact on the global reinsurance market. Despite much speculation about what event or combination of economic scenarios could the current market dynamics, the reality of any remains elusive and uncertain. For the first time since 9/11, the increase in primary rates in the U.S. is outpacing reinsurance rating movements. With the modest outlook for growth and improvements in underwriting profitability, many reinsurers are re-examining their capital management strategies in an effort to improve their overall results. Aside from share buybacks, there are signs that some have started to look for higher investment returns by taking more investment risk and are allocating more capital to this exposure. This acceptance of greater investment risk is being driven to a significant degree by the need for companies to reinvest high yielding maturing investments in assets which can produce a reasonable yield. Similarly, M&A activity is picking up as another route for management to address growth and performance challenges. The changing dynamics in the distribution of specialty and large commercial risks continued to evolve actively in the second quarter. A number of new initiatives have been launched, the majority of which are aimed at direct and facultative markets. Reinsurers, though not directly involved in most instances, are carefully monitoring these s, as they seek to understand these circumstances, what they may mean for their own business models and what adjustments they may have to make in order to grow in the future. Peter C. Hearn John Cavanagh Chairman, Willis Re CEO, Willis Re 1 July 2013 1 July 2013 Page 3 of 12
Property territory and comments Australia Appetite continues to strengthen with significant reinsurance capacity available General softening of rates across the market for non-loss affected programs Reinsurers have an increased appetite to write across programs, i.e., long tail and short tail classes The reduction in seismic activity in New Zealand has resulted in increased confidence and appetite for New Zealand catastrophe risk Loss activity on personal lines per risk treaties has resulted in some reinsurers adjusting their technical rates on per risk programs Increased number of sideways catastrophe covers being purchased in response to changing Australian regulatory requirements Caribbean Property pro rata is flat Property catastrophe is down, risk-adjusted 1% to 5% Property risk excess of loss is down 5% China Market is still very soft Reinsurance capacity is more than adequate More reinsurers are competing for shares and consequently, are willing to quote Some non-traditional leading markets are also competing for leading terms Latin America Pro rata commissions are largely flat, but in some cases, seeing modest additional commissions for cedants with good results Capacity requirements in Latin America are increasing, with more interest from cedants to purchase pro rata covers Much increased interest from the traditional reinsurance market for excess of loss reinsurance Retentions are edging up slowly Increased capacity leading to over-placement and signing down of reinsurers lines Middle East Pro rata capacity is at an adequate level in the region, especially for cedants with acceptable results Influx of capacity in the region continues to grow; majority of this capacity is being directed towards excess of loss reinsurance Retentions, albeit marginally, are on the rise across the region Restrictions on facultative inwards continue to be requested by the lead reinsurers Event limits on some treaties have reduced slightly following pressure from reinsurers South Africa Abundance of capacity on excess of loss business Local competitiveness for proportional business as reinsurers seek revenue growth Page 4 of 12
United Kingdom Catastrophe excess of loss rates are under downward pressure Reinsurers are keen to keep their current participations and perceive competition for them from new markets, especially from capital market investors Technical analysis remains key; margins are therefore declining United States Florida Significant capacity increases from new managed funds, sidecars and retained earnings led a highly competitive market Capital markets were increasingly aggressive creating competition for traditional reinsurers, with the latter reducing price and supporting non-traditional placements to defend market share especially on the higher attaching layers and layers with nil reinstatements With abundant capacity available throughout programs, required multiples of expected loss decreased as well as minimum premium requirements at the top of programs Enhanced coverage terms readily available including multi-year terms at current pricing levels Pricing variations were being driven by individual company experience, exposure s, geographical concentrations and perceived attitudes towards long-term relationships versus opportunistic capacity United States Nationwide Significant capacity increases from new managed funds, sidecars and retained earnings has led to a highly competitive market Capital markets are increasingly aggressive competition for traditional reinsurers, with the latter reducing price to defend market share particularly on the higher attaching layers New capacity available throughout programs, decreasing required multiples of expected loss and reducing minimum premium requirements at the top of programs With abundant capacity, pricing variations are being driven by individual company experience, exposure s and perceived attitudes towards long-term relationships versus opportunistic capacity Rates Territory Pro rata commission Property rates Risk loss free % Risk loss hit % Catastrophe loss free % Catastrophe loss hit % Australia 0% to +2% 0% to -5% 0% to +20% 0% to -5% 0% to +5% Caribbean +1% -5% varies -1% to -5% N/A China N/A -10% to -15% +15% to +25% -5% to -10% N/A Latin America 0% 0% varies -5% N/A Middle East 0% 0% to -5% +5% 0% N/A South Africa 0% 0% 0% to +8% 0% 0% to +8% United Kingdom N/A 0% N/A -5% to -8% N/A United States Florida N/A -10% to -15% varies -15% to -25% N/A United States Nationwide N/A -10% to -15% 0% to +5% -10% to -20% -5% to +5% Note: Movements are risk-adjusted. Page 5 of 12
Property catastrophe pricing trends The charts on these pages display estimated year-to-year Property catastrophe rate movement, using 100 in 1990 as a baseline. Australia 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Caribbean 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 United States 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Page 6 of 12
Casualty territory and comments Australia Appetite for Casualty business in Australia remains very strong with an abundance of reinsurance capacity Rates have continued to soften Declining investment yields are not having an effect on reinsurance rates Buyers continue to prefer APRA-approved reinsurers Reinsurance retentions remain stable International General Third Party Liability Generally, pressure on original rates remains, and it is difficult in most territories around the world for insurers to increase their pricing on General Third Party Liability business Reinsurance capacity for standard General Third Party Liability classes remains plentiful, and in many territories there is competition amongst reinsurers to maintain and increase signings Reductions in reinsurance rates on excess of loss treaties are achievable on accounts with minimal loss activity, based on an abundance of reinsurance capacity Reinsurers, however, are also alert to the increasing trend of U.S. products losses on European Liability programs Higher-risk classes, such as pharmaceuticals and chemicals, remain a more specialist area, with a different market dynamic and less room to maneuver in terms of price International Motor Liability Movements in original rates continue to impact reinsurers assessment of treaty pricing Legislative s, e.g., directives on gender equality, are creating uncertainty in the original market with associated impact on reinsurance In most developed territories, the trend is for a reduction in deaths and serious injuries from motor accidents, however in many cases serious injuries are costing more; as such, the reinsurance market view continues to be influenced by increases in levels of bodily injury awards Reinsurance pricing direction varies considerably from territory to territory depending upon prevailing trends on bodily injury compensation International Professional Liability Reinsurance capacity remains abundant, especially where exposure to Financial Institutions is limited Buyers continue to benefit from new and returning markets, providing greater flexibility for reinsurer panels Capacity for Financial Institution Professional Liability is available but continues to be constrained by accumulation and systemic concerns Systemic concerns remain in other areas (euro, real-estate related, cyber) but are becoming less pronounced Page 7 of 12
Pricing is becoming more heavily weighted towards experience, with discounts against technical rate for good results United Kingdom General Third Party Liability Insurance rates on the original business continue to be flat or falling Reinsurance capacity for the class remains plentiful, largely because reinsurers see the class as being a safe haven from Motor and Professional / Financial classes Hence rate reductions, which while they are unlikely to be strictly justified from a technical angle, remain a realistic target from a supply-demand perspective United States Motor Market appetite for liability business is strong Pricing is flat to declining United States Professional Liability Reinsurance capacity remains abundant, especially where exposure to Financial Institutions is limited Buyers continue to benefit from new and returning markets providing greater flexibility for reinsurer panels Capacity for Financial Institution Professional Liability available, but continues to be constrained by accumulation and systemic concerns Cyber is increasingly a growth area for reinsureds and a major part of every reinsurance renewal discussion given reinsurers concerns around the systemic exposures and the untested policy wordings Pricing becoming more heavily weighted towards experience, with reinsurers willing to provide discounts relative to exposure rate for good results United States Third Party General Liability Strong market appetite Pricing is declining Rates Territory Casualty rates Pro rata commission XL No loss emergence % XL With loss emergence % Australia N/A 0% to -5% 0% to -2% International General Third Party Liability N/A -2.5% to -5% 0% to +10% International Professional Liability 0% to +2.5% -2.5% to -7.5% 0% South Africa Employers Liability 0% 0% +20% United Kingdom General Third Party Liability N/A -5% to -10% 0% to -5% United States Motor Liability 0% to +1% 0% to -10% 0% United States Professional Liability 0% to +4% -2.5% to -15% 0% to +10% United States Third Party General Liability 0% to +1.5% 0% to -10% 0% to +5% Note: Movements are risk-adjusted. Page 8 of 12
Specialties line of business and comments Marine Adequate capacity for most risks; energy and retrocession remain the tightest classes for capacity The market shows more signs of competition than 1 January and 1 April, as the Superstorm Sandy loss has stabilized Pro rata: reinsurers demonstrating greater differentiation of clients rather than simple product approach Active Gulf of Mexico wind season predicted and (re)insurers are watching with great interest Losses from the MOL Comfort yet to be determined, but reinsurers are watching closely in terms of container aggregations Non-Marine Retrocession Notable reductions in retrocession pricing as the ILS market continues to grow and put pressure on the traditional retrocession market Abundant capacity swelled by reinsurers looking to deploy aggregate impacted by depressed 1 June Florida signed lines Some resultant opportunistic retro buying against a backdrop of reduced midyear ultimate net loss purchases following high take-up of pillared products earlier in the year Significant uptick in industry loss warranty activity with clients capitalizing on attractive prices as they enter the U.S. wind season Personal Accident / Life Catastrophe This market continues to be competitive and stable with regard to pricing and capacity Political Risk An abundance of reinsurance capacity both for pro rata and excess of loss remains, following the movements of underwriters in the employment market in the second half of 2012 The price softening seen at 1 January has continued, with rates in the region of 5% to 10% down compared to 2012 The Political Risk insurance market is entering what will be an interesting 6 to 12 month period with a number of new entrants to the class This additional capacity is likely have a direct impact on original terms and conditions and to a further softening in pricing absent of any new loss activity; opinion remains divided as to the degree of further softening Page 9 of 12
United States Healthcare Reinsurance pricing for Healthcare Liability lines remains reasonable with pricing reflective of the favorable loss experience Reinsurer margins have remained relatively flat on working layer covers Pricing has fallen on higher limit capacity layers where justified Adequate reinsurance capacity exists to address the increasing excess limit needs of insurers Ceding commissions are generally adequate to cover underwriting expenses United States Medical Excess The U.S. is seeing an increase in the severity of medical claims Rates Territory Pro rata commission Specialty rates Risk loss free % Risk loss hit % Catastrophe loss free % Catastrophe loss hit % Marine 0% 0% to -5% 0% to +5% N/A N/A Non-Marine Retrocession N/A N/A N/A -5% to -10% N/A Personal Accident / Life Catastrophe N/A 0% to -5% N/A 0% to -5% N/A United States Medical Excess N/A +3% to +10% +15% to +25% N/A N/A Note: Movements are risk-adjusted. Page 10 of 12
U.S. Workers Compensation Primary rates are moving up, generating more interest from reinsurers on lower per person exposed layers Greater interest from cedants in purchasing per person exposed buffer layers," e.g., $5M xs $5M and $5M xs $10M Coverage enhancements available on all contract types Catastrophe rates remain soft as supply continues to outstrip demand Rates Territory Workers Compensation rates Pro rata commission United States 0% XL No loss emergence % 0% to -7.5% on catastrophe layers 0% on working layers if cedants can demonstrate underlying rate increases XL With loss emergence % N/A Capital Markets Catastrophe bond spreads continue to decline, encouraging more issuance; this is likely to see the previous record high issuance in 2007 of US $7.2 billion being exceeded in 2013 Catastrophe bonds being issued in 2013 are now much more at risk than those issued in 2007, clearly demonstrating the evolution of the catastrophe bond market Syndication is gaining market share over bespoke deals placed with limited markets; pricing on syndicated deals is demonstrably better due to the transparency of the book building process, providing capital market investors with price discovery Investors have raised additional funds to support risk-taking, with an estimated US $42 billion of collateralized reinsurance, catastrophe bonds and ILW limit being in force by year end Reinsurers continue to engage in third party capital activities; hiring of individuals and teams to develop third party capital strategies is increasing, resulting in more reinsurers launching sidecars, joint ventures with ILS Fund Managers and investments in ILS ILS Investors are starting to look more widely than just the Property catastrophe product class, with interest being shown in Life, Commercial Automobile and Casualty index products The recent Swiss Re Contingent Convertible Bond placement, which provides full write down of principal in the event of the trigger being breached, continues to create great interest Page 11 of 12
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