Renewal 2003 MR Reinsurance Group

Transcription

1 Renewal 2003 MR Reinsurance Group Renewal 2003 MR Reinsurance Group February, 28 th 2003 Münchener Rück Munich Re Group

2 Contents Overview Market View Reinsurance Group Business Units / Lines of Business Outlook 2

3 Overview

4 Highlights Over 14% premium increase on renewed business underlines continuing focus on margin growth Underwriting discipline leads to further portfolio enhancements Continuing hard market Tight terms & conditions to limit risk Rate increases often coincide with improved conditions Buying patterns characterised by budget constraints 4

5 Pricing This year again double digit rate increases expected, notwithstanding major improvements in previous renewal season Drivers of rate improvements are most lines of business, with casualty in the lead Reinsurance rate increases on top of primary insurers rate increases Ongoing hard market conditions - harder market to come? 5

6 Terms and Conditions Increased retention of primary insurances under proportional and XL Continuation of introduction of event limits (e.g. nat. cat., workers comp.) Sustained positive effect on portfolio Further limitation of terrorism risks Exclusion of non-compulsory unlimited covers in motor third party liability (illimité) Reduction of commission rates in most lines of business 6

7 Market View

8 Seven Reasons for a Continuing Hard Market Investment returns no longer compensate for poor underwriting results Economic outlook remains subdued and constrains the outlook for the insurance industry Trend of rising risks and potential losses: insurance needs to be rethought and repriced in society Realised risk profiles for assets resulting in revised scenarios Severe investment losses for insurers reduce capacity Market withdrawals, losses from the past and increased credit risks in the insurance sector further reduce capacity Technical rates in many markets still not sufficient 8

9 Cycle Management at Munich Re macro level We analyse micro level Global factors, e.g. - price trends (direct and reinsurance) - worldwide capacity - competitors behaviour (strategies) - prices in ART markets - capital markets perspective - macroeconomic factors Individual market trends, e.g. - per regional market (direct and reinsurance) - per line of business - in facultative business - competitors behaviour in individual markets Value Based Management and Capital Allocation Model Global cycle view and strategy Client segmentation Customised portfolio strategy defined by the operational divisions per region per line of business per client If you adhere to profound underwriting you'll outperform the cycle 9

10 Munich Re The Preferred Reinsurer When thinking of quality non-life reinsurance companies, which one(s) is / are the best overall? in % Munich Re Flaspöhler Customer Research January

11 Reinsurance Group

12 January Renewal 2003 (Premiums Written) in % 100 Total Total Renewals January portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year renewable later renewals

13 65% of Total Portfolio up for Renewal Total portfolio in 2002 consisting of 21% facultative business and 79% treaty business Deducting the 4% multi-year business from the total treaty business we end up with 75% of our total treaty business renewable 10% of total portfolio has later renewal dates (mainly Asia and the Americas) Overall 65% of our total portfolio is renewable in January 13

14 Changes in Premium in % 125 MR Total Total 2002 Increase on Total 2003 renewable Cancelled Renewed renewable New business est. outcome This represents 14,2% of renewed, thereof 11% rate increase 3,2% share increase 25 0 All numbers on 2003 renewals contain estimates 14

15 Business Units / Lines of Business

16 Business Units Europe Focus on property and casualty business Single digit premium growth shows the restrictive underwriting which is focused on profitability Renewal in Germany focused on rate increases and improved terms & conditions (e.g. terrorism clause, abolition of illimité coverage) Overall reduction of the commission ratio by 2 to 3 %-points differing by market Improvements in terms & conditions through reduction of nat. cat. exposure 16

17 Business Units Asia, Australasia, Africa Focus on property, casualty and marine business Balanced premium growth because of economic downturn, political dangers (e.g. Iraq) and terrorism Terms & conditions improved by the introduction of event limits and changes of exposures (e.g. nat. perils exposure reduced) Some treaty renewals still outstanding (e.g. Japan as of April 1st) 17

18 Business Units American Re Focus on property and casualty Continued rise of primary and reinsurance rates e.g. due to Sep. 11 th claims and unprofitable underwriting over the prior years Major portfolio enhancement and restructuring enforced Treaty coverages have become more restrictive in nat. cat. Finalised terrorism guideline with specified terrorism budgets Shift from pro-rata coverages into higher layer excess coverages to meet more restrictive underwriting guidelines 18

19 Business Units Corporate Clients Double digit premium increases in the range of 10% to 25% achieved with all clients Majority of treaties renewed on tighter terms and conditions (e.g. exclusion of toxic mould, reduction of terrorism exposure, introduction of event limits) Reinsurance price increases compound with primary price increases 19

20 Business Units Special and Financial Risks Focus on aviation, space and credit & bonding business After very successful renewal 2002 aviation rates are levelling off Reduced market capacity in space will keep the rates on a risk adequate level Rate improvements in credit & bonding XL business up to 25% in addition to commission reduction of up to 5% in proportional reinsurance Additional reduction of limits and coverage (e.g. change from automatic coverage into facultative requests), shortening of payment period for XL installments 20

21 Lines of Business Property Overview Pricing: Substantial rate improvement (20-25%) in primary markets, especially in industrial lines Working XL reinsurance: further rate increases up to 15% in all property lines In cat-covers: only slight increases on an already high rating level Proportional reinsurance: besides the increase in original rates the reduction of reinsurance commissions will positively influence the combined ratio 21

22 Lines of Business Property Overview Terms & conditions: General exclusion of terrorism on risks in excess of 50m Relief in terrorism exposure due to GAREAT (French terrorism pool), Extremus (German terrorism pool) and TRIA (US terrorism pool) Extension of scope of cover of Pool Re (UK terrorism pool) In general increase of retentions for all types of treaties Substantial increase in deductibles in primary markets Limitation of liabilities under contingent business interruption 22

23 Lines of Business Property January Renewals (Premiums Written) Munich Re in % 100 Total portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year Total renewable Renewals later January renewals

24 Lines of Business Property Changes in Premium Total Property in % Total 2002 Increase on Total 2003 renewable Cancelled Renewed renewable New business est. outcome This represents 7,5% of renewed, thereof 6,6% rate increase 0,9% share increase 25 0 All numbers on 2003 renewals contain estimates 24

25 Lines of Business Casualty Overview Pricing: Substantial rate improvement in primary markets, especially in industrial lines; sometimes by up to 50% and more (e.g. pharmaceuticals, medical malpractice) XL reinsurance: again significant rate increases in all casualty lines In personal accident / workers comp. cat. covers increases of up to 100% were necessary and could be achieved Proportional reinsurance: besides the increase in original rates the reduction of reinsurance commissions will positively influence the combined ratio 25

26 Lines of Business Casualty Overview Terms & conditions: Abolition of non-compulsory unlimited covers in motor third party liability; further restrictions to follow Increase of companies retentions under XL and proportional business Further improvements in index clauses (move away from severe inflation clause) Continuation of introduction of aggregate limits and/or limited number of reinstatements Under XL treaties substantial reduction of exposures from occupational diseases through introduction of ACOD clause (one man one occurrence) 26

27 Lines of Business Casualty January Renewals (Premiums Written) Munich Re in % 100 Total portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year Total renewable Renewals later January renewals

28 Lines of Business Casualty Changes in Premium in % Total Casualty Total 2002 Increase on Total 2003 renewable Cancelled Renewed renewable New business est. outcome This represents 19,5% of renewed, thereof 15,3% rate increase 4,2% share increase 25 0 All numbers on 2003 renewals contain estimates 28

29 Lines of Business Marine Overview Pricing: In some segments prices are still not risk adequate Primary rates improved up to 40% XL: In the third consecutive year substantial improvement of terms. Up to 30% rate increases with significant retention increases Terms & conditions: Limitation of terror risks Reintroduction of refinery exclusion clause (exclusion of on-shore energy risks from off-shore policies) Exclusion of isolated storage risks (except facultative with special pricing and risk survey in accordance with property standards) 29

30 Lines of Business Marine January Renewals (Premiums Written) Munich Re in % 100 Total Total Renewals January portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year renewable later renewals

31 Lines of Business Marine Changes in Premium in % Total Marine Total 2002 Increase on Total 2003 renewable Cancelled Renewed renewable New business est. outcome This represents 6,7% of renewed, thereof 4,7% rate increase 2,0% share increase 25 0 All numbers on 2003 renewals contain estimates 31

32 Lines of Business Credit Overview Pricing: General improvements by 5% and more in prices Rate increase in XL up to 25% Terms & conditions: Reduction of limits and coverage Up to 5% reduced commission rate expected due to switch from fixed rates to sliding scales Capacity: Shortage mainly in proportional business and special products. For XL enough capacity available Economic Situation: Primary insurers have taken measures to meet increasing insolvency rates (e.g. reduction of automatic limits, higher retentions of insured) 32

33 Lines of Business Credit January Renewals (Premiums Written) Munich Re in % 100 Total Total Renewals January portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year renewable later renewals

34 Lines of Business Credit Changes in Premium in % Total Credit Total 2002 Increase on Total 2003 renewable Cancelled Renewed renewable New business est. outcome This represents 9,5% of renewed, thereof 5% rate increase 4,5% share increase 25 0 All numbers on 2003 renewals contain estimates 34

35 Lines of Business Aviation / Space Overview Aviation Fac. / direct market / facultative reinsurance: Strong rate increases in first 4 months 2002, in 4 th quarter due to massive market capacity we noticed accelerating rate reductions, starting with 10% in October and reaching 30% in December XL: Higher market capacity due to newcomers. Price increases by 10% Increase of strategic co-operation with leading aviation underwriting pool In total premium volume 2003 almost stable Space (no specific renewal date) Fewer satellite launches planned in 2003 Reduced market capacity will keep the prices on a risk adequate level 35

36 Lines of Business Aviation January Renewals (Premiums Written) Munich Re in % 100 Total Total Renewals January portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year renewable later renewals

37 Lines of Business Aviation Changes in Premium Total Aviation in % Total 2002 Increase on Total 2003 renewable Cancelled Renewed renewable New business est. outcome This represents 8,8% of renewed, thereof - 9,1% rate increase 17,9% share increase 25 0 All numbers on 2003 renewals contain estimates 37

38 Outlook

39 Outlook Market to remain firm with further rate increases to be expected where risk adequate pricing not yet achieved (e.g. casualty, commercial lines) or where available capacity is scarce Firm intention to go for underwriting profit throughout the cycle, even more so as capital markets are weak We price our business for a combined ratio of under 100% 39

40 Investor Relations Contacts For information please contact: Pedro Janeiro Martins Phone: +49 (0) Head of Investor Relations Stefanie Gampe Phone: +49 (0) Ingrid Grunwald Phone: +49 (0) Christian Jacobi Phone: +49 (0) Ralf Kleinschroth Phone: +49 (0) Monika Schindler Phone: +49 (0) Fax: +49 (0) Internet: 40